The Battle of the Philly Burbs

Pennsylvania's 6th Congressional District is a part of the fast-growing Philadelphia suburbs -- one of several areas in the nation that speak to the peculiarity of the Bush 2004 reelection. Whereas most reelected presidents increase their share of the vote nationwide, President Bush's share of the vote increased in some areas and decreased in others. The Philadelphia suburbs are one area where Mr. Bush did worse in 2004.

This is one reason why the congressman from Pennsylvania's 6th District -- 2nd term Rep. Jim Gerlach -- tops most lists of endangered House incumbents. In 2004, he beat Lois Murphy, a well-funded former aide to Gov. Ed Rendell, by a scant 6,500 votes. Ms. Murphy is back for a rematch this year, and -- by mid-summer -- had raised almost as much as she had in all of the 2004 cycle.

Mr. Gerlach will have his work cut out for him in this district. Both candidates are up with TV spots already in Republican-leaning Berks County. Mr. Gerlach won the 6th's portion of Berks by a little more than 4,000 votes, and he will probably have to beat that margin this year. As a sign of just how close this race will be, a late July poll sponsored by Ms. Murphy had Mr. Gerlach down only one point, which was probably received by nervous Republicans as good news. An RT Strategies/CD poll taken in late August has Mr. Gerlach down by five points, 50% to 45%.