Cease Fire, Now

The escalating Israel-Hezbollah war has been a catastrophe for Lebanon and the Lebanese people. It is also a catastrophe for Israel. The symbol of this catastrophe is the horrific disaster at Qana, where over 50 Lebanese civilians, including 37 children, were killed in Israel's bombing of a single building.

Israel's 48-hour halt in aerial bombardment is an important first step toward what is most needed now: an immediate IDF-Hezbollah ceasefire, followed by the deployment of a multinational force along Lebanon's border with Israel and to support the Lebanese Army. Any further delay in a ceasefire will be at the expense of Lebanese and Israeli civilians, and that cost has become too high.

Beyond this most basic humanitarian argument, there is also a strategic case for an immediate bilateral ceasefire. Animosity toward Israel in the region was often checked by the grudging acknowledgment of Israel's military strength. As the IDF continues to unintentionally kill and wound civilian bystanders, higher levels of hatred are being generated toward the Jewish state. Simultaneously, as Israel is sucked into a war on Hezbollah's home turf with no tangible signs of success, Israel's psychic shield of military "invincibility" is being weakened. Israel could emerge from this conflict more hated but less feared, which could prove highly detrimental to Israel's long-term security.

Israel faces a conundrum in fighting Hezbollah. In a classic guerrilla warfare technique, Hezbollah callously and deliberately launches its attacks from civilian areas--including Qana, Israel claims. If Israel chooses not to return fire for fear of hitting civilians, then more Hezbollah rockets and missiles will be launched against Israeli cities from those locations. Advantage: Hezbollah.

But if Israel does return fire and kills civilians, then Hezbollah gets an even bigger payoff: more Lebanese victims to inflame the region and to broaden its support within Lebanon. Hitting civilian areas in response to an attack almost always proves to be counterproductive. Advantage: Hezbollah.

It is virtually impossible to defeat a guerrilla force that is embedded in its own society by using exclusively military means. Some sort of political arrangement is almost always a requirement, as we're learning in Iraq. It's been noted by both Hezbollah and Israeli officials that all Hezbollah has to do to "win" this war is to "not lose." After three weeks of intense pounding, Hezbollah not only is still standing, but every day thumbs its nose at Israel on satellite TV.

Hezbollah is a threat that must be dealt with. It deliberately targets Israeli civilians--unlike Israel in Lebanon--its adventurism could destabilize the delicate political balance in Lebanon, and it will never be satisfied so long as Israel continues to exist. Steps must be taken during and after any bilateral ceasefire to ensure that this conflict does not re-erupt. The details of such steps will soon be fleshed out in the Security Council.

The US must play a lead role in facilitating an immediate ceasefire and in negotiating the political arrangements that will be a necessary component for resolving this conflict. It will be impossible to deal effectively with Hezbollah without the cooperation of neighboring Syria. The US should begin talking, directly or indirectly, to Syria and also to Iran. The US dialogued with the Soviet Union, even during the most dangerous phases of the Cold War, and the USSR was a far greater threat to world peace than Iran will ever be. Dealing with these regimes may be distasteful to the Bush administration, but refusing to do so will guarantee the failure of the administration's policy goals in the entire region.

In the initial days of the fighting against Hezbollah, one could make a rational argument for Israel's use of "deliberately disproportionate" force, but not three weeks into the war when virtually all the Lebanese casualties are civilians. Perhaps the IDF could defeat Hezbollah in a ground war lasting months if not years. But Israel does not have this luxury of time. Nor will the international community, or even the United States, acquiesce to the level of destruction in Lebanon that such a "victory" would entail.

Allowing Israel's fruitless campaign against Hezbollah to continue for days or weeks before implementing a ceasefire will neither enhance Israel's security nor resolve the conflict. And many more civilians will die needlessly, on both sides. The time for a ceasefire is now.