An Easy Choice For Peru

SAN DIEGO -- Even in a job where you meet some of the most interesting people, it's not everyday every day that you meet up with a former shoeshine boy who went on to earn a doctorate in economics at Stanford and became one of the few indigenous presidents in the history of Latin America.

But that's what happened recently when members of the editorial board of The San Diego Union-Tribune sat down for an interview with President Alejandro Toledo of Peru. Toledo, who took office in July 2001, is wrapping up the last few months of a single five-year term.

Toledo's successor has not been determined. None of the contenders got enough votes in the April 9 election, setting up a runoff. The top vote-getter is a retired Army lieutenant colonel named Ollanta Humala, a nationalist and simpatico of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. His opponent could be either former President Alan Garcia or former Congresswoman Lourdes Flores. At last count, Flores had a slight lead. But Peruvian officials say it could take a couple more weeks to tally up all the votes.

It's par for the course in a country that -- like others in Latin America -- is plagued with a history of bureaucratic ineptitude, poor leadership, political corruption and rickety democracy.

Toledo insisted that he has changed a lot of that. He said that he brought economic reforms -- and claimed that (if Peruvians stay the course) those reforms will lead, in turn, to reform of the judicial and political systems.

Who would Toledo like to see replace him? He would only say that he hoped whoever comes next would build on his accomplishments and ``accept that the ultimate aim of public policy is to reduce poverty.''

If there's one thing that Toledo is certain will wreck Peru's future, it's toying with populism -- the sort that Chavez practices in Venezuela. Toledo calls it a ``short-term feast that ends up, sooner or later, in a funeral.''

For him, it's clear what people want. ``Poverty is never going to be resolved in a permanent way by giving away fish,'' he said. ``People are saying loudly that they need the opportunity to learn how to fish.''

Call it the evolution of Alejandro Toledo. Peru's president insists that when he took the job, he was a ``center-left pragmatist.'' Now, it's clear that his pragmatism has dragged him to the center-right part of the spectrum.

Still, his approval rating is in the basement even by Bush administration standards, dropping as low as 25 percent in some polls.

That fact doesn't seem to bother Toledo. ``When you are committed to a cause, '' he said, ``you need to be ready to pay the political price. And I did.''

One reason he paid a price is because, like other Latin Americans, Peruvians are desperate for change. Toledo admits that people in his country ``are losing faith in democracy'' because they want results quickly, although the process doesn't work that way.

And yet, the president had some success in his bailiwick: economics. During the last five years, Peru averaged an economic growth rate of 5 percent or more. Revenue from exports has nearly tripled. Five years ago, 24 percent of Peru's population lived in extreme poverty; today, it's 18 percent. And the unemployment rate is down from 10.5 percent before Toledo took office to 9.1 percent today.

Toledo thinks it's just the beginning of Peru's economic comeback, and he's counting on expanded trade with China, India and the United States to take the country the rest of the way. Just recently, the United States and Peru signed a free trade agreement that will remove the duties from 80 percent of U.S. farm exports to the Andean country.

As his term wraps up, Toledo is content to have played his part in a larger drama.

``I planted a tree,'' he said. ``I put fertilizer. I put water. I paid the political price. And now that it is ready to be harvested, I have to leave. I just hope the next president, if he has the intelligence and wisdom, will continue what we started.''

Let's hope that is the case. Toledo likely will go on to new adventures, but the future of the country he led for five years depends on the choices it makes from here.

It's not about right or left. It's about what works and what doesn't. Toledo put his country on the road to economic prosperity. Chavez put his on the road to ruin.

Sounds like an easy choice to me.