Fresh off a two-day swing to the Pacific Northwest, where he talked up his climate change plans and focused on the importance of the environment, John McCain wants you to know he's going green, and he wants you to join him. "This week our campaign is promoting John McCain's long-term commitment to providing market-based solutions to climate change and highlighting ways we can all protect our environment," campaign manager Rick Davis emailed supporters yesterday.

But that's not all: "We're also taking this week to launch a new section of our store - complete with eco-friendly items."

Fill those Chirstmas stockings early with an embroidered polo shirt or t-shirt, 70% of which is bamboo and the other 30% of which is cotton. Take your support to the grocery store, with an organic cotton tote bag woven in the United States. And it's never too early to head back-to-school shopping, especially not with a recycled notebook with pages lined and colored with organic-based inks.

On Monday, McCain gave an address on climate change in Portland, and even the state's Democratic governor, Ted Kulongoski, showed up to take a listen. Yesterday, McCain went to North Bend, Washington, just east of Seattle and at the foot of scenic Mt. Si, to continue touting his green plans and to take a quick hike in the woods (an outing that traveling press secretary Brooke Buchanan looks very unhappy with, as Jonathan Martin's photo shows).

Had he been wearing one of his new shirts, McCain might have rethought wearing them. What's the point, Politics Nation is left to wonder, of wearing a shirt that's biodegradable? Wouldn't it just fall off? Such environmentally-conscious fashion considerations are not exactly our forte. Perhaps it's time to invest in a biodegradable polo shirt.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

After folding their campaigns, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee promised to do everything they could to get John McCain elected this Fall. But both former contenders are also busy plotting their own comebacks, positioning themselves either as good vice presidential selections for McCain or as strong candidates themselves for 2012, should McCain's bid fall short.

Romney has been the most active, appearing for McCain this week at a Lancaster, Pennsylvania Republican dinner, shepherding McCain around Utah for a major fundraiser and promising to hit the stump in the future. Romney has also said he will raise $15 million for McCain, as the Associated Press' Glen Johnson reports.

The issues McCain is going to face in November could auger well for Romney, something of an economic whiz whose background as a businessman included helping Staples, Domino's and the Olympics turn themselves around. As more voters pay attention to the economy, McCain may decide he needs a running mate with serious economic credentials, and though animosity is still said to exist between the two, Romney would fit that bill.

Huckabee, too, is staying active. He signed a contract with a Hollywood talent agency this week, and next week he will launch a new venture with a major speech, to which his website is counting down (four days, five hours, forty-one minutes and twenty five seconds from the time this post was written). Huckabee brings executive experience, and though the Club for Growth dislikes him, his "Fair Tax" plan could be a compelling addition to a McCain-led ticket.

Then again, McCain can't choose both former rivals for the number two slot, and if McCain loses this year, the two will likely fight it out for the GOP nomination down the road. Fortunately for both, Iowa and New Hampshire are swing states, which voted differently in 2000 and 2004 (Iowa flipped from Gore to Bush, while New Hampshire flipped from Bush to Kerry). Which surrogate is going to park themselves in Des Moines to ensure the state's seven electoral votes go to their guy? Not a bad way to build the brand for 2012.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

SANTA ANA PUEBLO, New Mexico -- Entering to a standing ovation of Republican National Committee members, John McCain's campaign manager Rick Davis told the GOP leaders he is optimistic about the general election campaign, but that challenges lie ahead.

Nearly a year ago, few would have thought Davis would be standing before the RNC as the representative of the party's nominee-designate. "He has engineered what will go down in history as perhaps the greatest comeback in politics," RNC chair Mike Duncan told the crowd.

Calling the campaign "the greatest return to victory that has ever been seen," Davis said he's not ceding anything to Democrats. "The Democrats like to talk about the future. They like to talk about change. It's interesting to me that that has become the media's favorite topic. And I want to say that we want to talk about change, and we want to talk about the future too." McCain, though, will offer "change that we can talk about in specific terms," Davis said.

"I'd rather have a candidate who can walk the walk than can talk the talk," he continued, offering direct parallels with Barack Obama. "We're actually going to do it."

In a short video, McCain thanked RNC members and asked that the party come together. "It's going to take a team effort," McCain said. "Sure, we had our differences. Campaigns and primaries are tough," he said, acknowledging former Republican candidates.

Aside from the fissures within the Republican Party, Davis acknowledged larger challenges the party faces. Noting a recent New York Times/CBS News poll that showed voters favor a generic Democratic White House candidate by a fifteen-point margin over a generic Republican. "We cannot win the election if our party is viewed 15 points less as a solution to the problems of America than the Democrat Party," Davis said.

Davis pointed to five subgroups he said would be key to a victory in November. Those include "WalMart Moms," frugal suburban voters lower on the economic scale who Davis estimates will make up 17% of the electorate, and "Rehab Republicans," historically GOP voters who have grown disaffected, and a group from which Davis estimates McCain needs four out of five voters to win.

Younger voters, Davis said, will be a new frontier for national Republicans. While thousands pack rallies with Barack Obama, the campaign and the RNC will work together to figure out new ways to attract those younger voters. Acknowledging Obama's popularity and the higher turnout his candidacy has generated, Davis said he won't give up on the demographic. "If Barack Obama wins the nomination, we need to fight him for every youth vote we can," Davis said.

Reaching out to social networkers, which Davis defined as "Facebook Independents," will be key as well. Fiscal conservatives -- "There's a reason there's no taxation on the internet," he said -- the group is more likely to become an activist on their candidate's behalf.

Finally, Davis focused on Hispanic voters, a group that cast 72% of its ballots for McCain in his last Senate re-election campaign. Calling a strong performance among Hispanics "critical to our success," Davis said the McCain campaign will spend their time and money wooing the demographic that has increasingly broken for Democrats in recent years. Davis also promised that most television advertisements the campaign released would have Spanish-language versions running concurrently. "We need to perform as a party the way George Bush did in 2004," he said.

But the campaign, he promised, "won't be a third term of George Bush that we endeavor to define. It will be a third term for the Republican Party." It will take what Davis described as a "second look" to get voters back into the fold. "We know something about second looks in this campaign, and I know we can get a second look for our party by this November."

Of course, while McCain has secured his party's nomination, Democrats continue to fight amongst each other. Pointing out that Democrats have yet to settle on a nominee, Davis joked: "Frankly, I'd just as soon they not figure that out for a while longer."

Yesterday, Davis sat down with Politics Nation to chat about the race. Look for more of his analysis of the race on Monday.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 03:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink

John McCain is cruising to the GOP nomination, having already secured close to 400 more delegates than he needs to carry the convention in St. Paul. Despite the inevitability, Texas Rep. Ron Paul is still on the hustings, campaigning this weekend in Pennsylvania. Paul, who easily won his bid for renomination to Congress and will likely win the general there, was in Pittsburgh yesterday for a rally and press conference, as the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.

Paul spoke to a packed house and later blamed his loss on his lack of media coverage. Still, his fans know about him somehow: Many drove several hours to see him. As the paper's Timothy McNulty writes, while Hillary Clinton handled calls for her to withdraw from the race by comparing herself with Rocky, Paul might consider himself more of a Sisyphus, the mythical man cursed to roll a stone up a hill only to watch it plummet to earth again.

We sincerely hope that Mr. McNulty's email inbox is big enough to handle the flood he's probably receiving right now.

Paul's supporters, unimpressed by McCain's majority of delegates, have recently made a point of crashing county conventions across the country. At the RNC meeting just north of Albuquerque this week, several Republican state party executive directors told Politics Nation that they are already planning to have sheriff's deputies at the ready if Paul backers make a scene at their conventions.

One thing to keep an eye on: How, or when, does Paul get to speak at the Republican National Convention this summer? He's a Congressman who has won delegates, which should give him a shot at a speaking slot. But with one hour of prime time coverage a night, don't expect Paul to lead off the nightly newscast. We'd be surprised if Paul's speaking slot was any time after 2 p.m. Eastern, when only C-SPAN junkies tune in.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Few members of Congress are as close to John McCain as South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham. Through hard times and good times, from the snows of Iowa to McCain's recent trip to the Middle East, Graham has been by McCain's side, offering comic relief and a valuable surrogate for the nominee-in-waiting. Back home in South Carolina, few politicians are closer than Graham and Governor Mark Sanford; the two ascended through the House and into more senior positions together, both endorsed McCain in 2000, and Graham is even the godfather of one of Sanford's children.

Given the two degrees of separation, it is no wonder that Sanford should be considered a prime candidate for the vice presidential nomination. He's a conservative's conservative, he has governing experience as well as party experience, and -- perhaps even more appealing to McCain -- Sanford is seen as something of a maverick who doesn't always fall into perfect party orthodoxy. Graham's closeness with McCain could help get Sanford's foot even farther in the door.

But in a meeting with The State (video here), Columbia's biggest newspaper, last week, Graham strayed a little off the path if he's going to help his buddy secure the number two slot. "To be honest with you, from South -- I don't see any of us in South Carolina bringing a whole lot of value to the ticket. I mean, we're talking about winning a national race that's going to be very competitive," Graham said.

"I'm just telling you that when it comes time to pick a vice president, that the smart money I think would be trying to add to the national security -- you know, reinforce that aspect of the ticket," he continued. "If we lose South Carolina, it's going to be a very bad year for Republicans."

The comments raised eyebrows in South Carolina political circles, and at least some Sanford advisers were reportedly upset with Graham. It's hardly the first time the senator has irritated his own party. Graham, who is running for re-election this year, is not the favorite Republican in the state, thanks to his involvement in the Gang of 14 and for his more moderate stance on immigration. Despite efforts of some in the Palmetto State to find a challenger to the first-term Republican, only Republican National Committeeman Buddy Witherspoon stepped into the race.

Then again, Sanford may have wounded his own chances by staying neutral this year as governor, eight years after, as a Congressman, endorsing McCain and, with Graham, co-chairing his campaign in the state. This year, he rebuffed McCain's requests for support at least three times, the Wall Street Journal reported this weekend. Now, the relationship between McCain and Sanford is "cordial," one McCain strategist told the paper, and Sanford may have blown his chance.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

John McCain has enjoyed great relations with the national press in recent years, thanks largely to his accessibility. But the candidate who spends hours a day riding along with journalists, always on the record, and even invites them to his ranch house in Sedona, Arizona, does not have great relations with the home-town media, Politico's Michael Calderone writes.

While national reporters get unfettered access, reporters with the Arizona Republic have not always had cozy relations with their senior senator. After a scandal involving savings and loan figure Charles Keating, which ensnared McCain, and after the paper wrote on Cindy McCain's battle with a prescription drug addiction, McCain's relations with the paper reached an all-time low.

It's not only the Republic, though. This writer, who has the privilege of covering Arizona members of Congress for the Arizona Capitol Times on occasion, has heard complaints from writers and editors about a lack of access as well. At a recent press conference in Phoenix, the day after barbecuing for journalists in Sedona, few local reporters were in attendance, and many, we heard later, hadn't even gotten word of the event.

Still, McCain has been treated largely with kid gloves during this year's primaries, JMart observes. Barack Obama has had to deal with Lynn Sweet and tough Tribune scribes, Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani have had to endure countless New York Post and Daily News headers and the New York Times' investigating teams, and Mitt Romney had to endure a Boston press corps that never goes lightly on its home-town candidates.

Even Mike Huckabee has had journalists from his home state on his back. Arkansas journalists, hardened by years following Bill Clinton (an adventure which gave rise to such experienced scribes as AP's Ron Fournier), know how to cover their candidates as well. The Republic, and other Arizona papers, haven't given McCain the same scrutiny that other states have given their candidates.

By most accounts, the relationship between Arizona papers and McCain has now grown cordial, but distant. That could work to McCain's favor in November, when Clinton or Obama have to face the hard-hitting hacks who know them best.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

PHOENIX, Arizona -- A day before his campaign hopes to finally lock up the Republican nomination, John McCain voiced his own optimism but refused to declare premature victory while meeting with reporters in his home town. "You know of my superstitions," McCain joked.

McCain's confidence was obvious, though, as he spent a casual weekend with top strategists and members of the national media at his ranch in Sedona instead of stumping in Ohio and Texas. And while other candidates might take a ceremonial turn at the barbecue, McCain showed off his talent over the grill, feeding reporters dozens of racks of ribs using his own special recipe. "He knows what he's doing," one reporter and barbeque fan told Politics Nation.

Flanked by wife Cindy and former Texas Senator Phil Gramm, McCain expressed concern about recent foreign events, including Russian elections, rocket attacks on Israel and rising tensions between Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela. Asked by one reporter about Hillary Clinton's recent television ad hypothesizing a telephone call to the White House at 3 a.m., McCain said he is most qualified to handle a crisis.

"I'm not running against their qualificantions," McCain said of Clinton and Barack Obama. "I'm running for mine." McCain again joked that he is not the youngest candidate in the race, but made sure to note that he is no longer the oldest, either. "I'm glad to see Mr. [Ralph] Nader is in. He's older than I am."

McCain's concentration on national security and foreign policy is an integral part of his general election strategy. If the race is determined based on voters' perceptions on the war in Iraq and instability throughout the world, McCain has more than a fighting chance. Voter attitudes are slowly beginning to change on Iraq, and no politician has been more associated with the so-called surge strategy than McCain. Too, tumult around the globe can make voters nervous and eager for an experienced candidate. Those voters, especially against a young senator like Obama, can be convinced to cast ballots for McCain.

The recent feud between Clinton and Obama on national security, most epitomized by Clinton's telephone ad, only serves to swing voter attention back to international situations. While each candidate is focused, at least at the moment, on winning the Democratic nomination, both are aiding McCain's effort to drive the conversation back to his turf.

McCain still has to lock up his own nomination, and though his notorious superstitions make him too nervous to call for rival Mike Huckabee to leave the race, campaign advisers think the race will end tomorrow. "If we win the four [states in play tomorrow], we will" reach the magic number, adviser Steve Duprey told Politics Nation.

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 10:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Technically, the Republican race is not through yet. John McCain still finds himself short of the 1,191 delegates necessary to win the GOP nomination, even though Mike Huckabee, the last remaining serious challenger in the race, is still doing his best in Texas and Ohio. While Huckabee can't win either, he's become such a problem that McCain has severely altered his schedule this week to handle what has to be an increasingly irritating pest.

Last week, McCain began what looked like a general election schedule. He raised money in Indianapolis, met workers at a Ford plant in Wayne, Michigan before raising money near Detroit, and even spent some time in Washington. He started helping down-ballot candidates as well, holding a fundraiser for businessman Jim Oberweis in Illinois that raked in $250,000.

But this week the story has been different. After today, McCain will have held events in four cities in Texas and four cities in Ohio so far this week. His campaign has not made public events in any other states in the near future.

McCain, it seems, just wants this thing over with, something he could, hypothetically, achieve come Tuesday. By RCP's count, McCain is 172 delegates shy of taking the nomination. Together, Ohio and Texas offer 228 delegates, plus 17 from Vermont and 20 from Rhode Island. Vermont and Rhode Island are likely to give the lion's share of their delegates to McCain -- the Green Mountain State delivers all its delegates to the statewide winner, while Huckabee has expended no effort in Rhode Island.

Still, McCain will need a big margin to finish the race off on March 4. Assuming he takes every delegate from the two New England states, he will need 135 of the 228 Texas and Ohio delegates to secure the nod. With McCain up by nearly 30 points in the latest RCP Ohio Average and ahead by 18.7 points in the last RCP Texas Average, he just might do it.

If he falls short, the March 11 primary in Mississippi will be the last chance for him to end the nominating contest before Pennsylvania, on April 22. Until he reaches 1,191 pledged delegates, though, McCain will have to deal with Huckabee. His public travel schedule sends a clear message: McCain wants this thing over with.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Over the weekend, the Northern Mariana Islands allocated all nine of their delegates to the Republican National Convention to John McCain, putting him that much closer to officially locking up the Republican nomination, the Associated Press reported.

It is something of an irony that McCain, who led one of the investigations into imprisoned lobbyist Jack Abramoff's illicit dealings, would pick up delegates from the Marianas. Abramoff served as a top lobbyist for the islands and helped steer legislation through then-Majority Leader Tom DeLay's office, actions that got both men in trouble. McCain's investigation of Abramoff centered on his use of non-profit anti-gambling organizations through which to direct money.

McCain has used his investigation of Abramoff to bolster his reputation as an outsider in the Beltway. "Ask Jack Abramoff if I'm an insider in Washington -- you'd probably have to go during visiting hours in the prison -- and he'll tell you and his lobbyist cronies of the change I made there," McCain said during a Fox News debate in South Carolina in January.

McCain will gladly take the delegates, but he might want to dispatch some talking points to island Republicans. "With [McCain] as president, I feel that we will have a better chance of being heard in Washington, D.C.," local GOP vice chair Ana Teregeyo told the AP. Some of the higher-ups who worked with Abramoff probably thought they already had an in.

This is the first year Republicans from the Northern Marianas have a say in their party's presidential election. The territory was admitted to the national GOP after the 2004 elections, AP says.

For the record, a flight from Saipan to Minneapolis from August 31 to September 5 would run delegates an affordable $1629.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 06:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Presumed Republican nominee John McCain returned triumphantly to the House of Representatives yesterday, a body in which he served in the early 1980s, to address the House GOP conference about his presidential bid. His old colleagues, according to several Congressmen in the room, welcomed him back with open arms.

McCain meets the press along with, from left,
Roy Blunt, John Boehner, Eric Cantor and Adam Putnam

"There have been some that have been less than enthusiastic in the past," the Republican, who is close to McCain, recalled. But yesterday there was no grumbling, multiple congressmen told Politics Nation. The conference, another member said, has no choice but to back McCain, "He's the best shot we've got. And it's a good shot."

McCain revealed to the group that his son, Jimmy, a Marine, had landed safely in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, on Monday, home after a seven-month deployment. CNN reports McCain told members his son began his tour by witnessing improvised explosive devices frequently, but that, as a testament to the success of the surge, he ended his tour of duty handing out soccer balls to Iraqi youth. That elicited a standing ovation.

Later, at a press conference at the Capitol Hill Club across the street, McCain was endorsed by Boehner, House Minority Whip Roy Blunt, chief deputy whip Eric Cantor and Conference chairman Adam Putnam. McCain told the media the group had agreed there was work to be done to unite the party, First Read reports. Still, the show of unity is important, sending the message from top Republican leaders that their nominee deserves to be rallied around.

McCain's success depends not only on his appeal to independent voters, but to his ability to turn out the base and make sure mainstream Republicans are satisfied with his candidacy. Yesterday's conference with House Republicans will not fix long-strained relations completely, but members of Congress recognize, at least, that they have little choice other than to rally behind their party's new leader.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Last night, John McCain stopped a recent trend of losing primaries by sweeping the Potomac contests, and today, instead of racing back to the campaign trail, he is taking a victory lap on Capitol Hill. Unfortunately, he picked a time when several members could find a good reason to skip out.

House Oversight and Government Reform chairman Henry Waxman, the California Democrat who serves as a watchdog for everything in Washington, is currently reading an opening statement as New York Yankees ace Roger Clemens and his former trainer wait patiently to be grilled. McCain supporter Tom Davis, the Virginia Republican who once chaired the committee, is perched next to Waxman, ready to jump in.

The hearing is one of the rare times members of Congress find themselves on a wide range of television stations. Fox News, MSNBC, CNN and ESPN are carrying the hearing live, and as Waxman gets going, it is clear Clemens and Brian McNamee are not going to have an easy day. Congress, unlike former Senator George Mitchell, has the power to subpoena, and so far, they have used it.

It is somewhat ironic that McCain is speaking to Republican members of Congress as Clemens testifies on the Hill. McCain has long been an advocate of cleaning up sports, from boxing to baseball. While Waxman and his committee are taking a look at steroid use in baseball now, McCain began looking into testing players for drug use in 2004, when he served as chair of the Senate Commerce Committee. "Don't you get it?" McCain asked players union chief Donald Fehr at a September 2005 hearing.

If McCain misses a few members today because they prefer to nail Clemens down for his alleged steroid use, he's probably okay with it. If the hearing were happening in the Senate, McCain would probably be there himself.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Our third look at potential vice presidential contenders tackles John McCain, the all-but-crowned Republican nominee. Unlike Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, McCain has problems with his own base, which will likely play a major factor in the selection process. Still, McCain has a history of seemingly intentionally irritating conservatives, so he could throw those concerns out the window and just pick whoever he likes.

Again, here are four serious choices, a long-shot contender and someone you'll never see on McCain's ticket:

Tim Pawlenty: The governor of Minnesota was one of McCain's earliest and loudest supporters. Unlike some, when McCain's campaign seemed to collapse, Pawlenty didn't abandon ship. McCain values loyalty, and Pawlenty's loyalty could be repaid with a nomination. Pawlenty has found electoral success, though by the skin of his teeth in 2006, in a traditionally Democratic state, and balancing the ticket with a Midwesterner could be just what Southwestern McCain needs. Republicans need Ohio to win an election, though Pawlenty could make the case for the GOP ticket in nearby Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa, three states that chose presidential candidates by very narrow margins in 2004.

Mike Huckabee: In what has to be the most polite campaign in generations, Huckabee is still running against McCain, and though he can't win the race mathematically, he can prevent McCain from getting the necessary delegates to do so. That might force McCain's hand and make him hire Huckabee, or it could prove that the former Arkansas Governor is scrappy enough to be the attack dog. When thinking about running mates, McCain has to consider the possibility of a vice presidential debate, and regardless of who the Democrats pick, Huckabee could wipe the floor with them for a solid hour. McCain has never had the closest relationship with evangelical voters, something Huckabee knows about, and while anti-tax groups would scream bloody murder, picking Huckabee could go a long way toward healing McCain's rift with the base.

Mark Sanford: The governor of South Carolina would be the closest thing McCain could do to picking someone who irritates conservatives just for the heck of it. Sanford is widely admired by his constituents, but the Republican establishment in the Palmetto State are not fans. Sanford stayed on the sidelines this year, but in 2000 he, along with now-Sen. Lindsey Graham, were big McCain backers as members of Congress. Sanford is conservative, has a record of management, and while he doesn't bring anything geographically, he could solidify the GOP base in the South, something every Republican needs if they're to have even a chance at winning the White House. Picking Sanford could be tantamount to admitting McCain needs help in solid red country, but he still brings benefits as a governor.

Chuck Hagel: A fellow Vietnam veteran, if the war in Iraq once again comes to dominate the debate, Hagel would be a good choice if McCain tries to tack back toward the center. That's not to say McCain will change his position; he is invested, both personally and politically, in the success of the war. But Hagel's opposition to some parts of the war could send the message that McCain is more interested in success now than success later. Hagel, a businessman, would probably make business Republicans happy. Like McCain, though, Hagel's record on social issues is solid, but with little advocacy to which he can point. Some social conservatives might think Hagel, like McCain, is not really one of theirs despite voting records that tell the opposite story.

Longshot: Charlie Crist: The only reason the extremely popular Florida governor, who has a record on taxes and social issues that conservatives love but who attracts support from Democrats too, should be considered a long shot is his relatively short two-year tenure in the governor's mansion. Other than that, Crist is nearly perfect: He's well-tanned (and it looks real), he's from a swing state critical to any candidate's fortunes, and he is one of the most personable people in politics. His last-minute backing gave McCain just enough momentum to overcome Mitt Romney in Florida, a result that essentially made McCain the front-runner. Crist may not be on a ticket this year, but watch to see if he joins a ticket in the near future.

Bonus Longshot: Mitt Romney: As we wrote for Clinton, she could conceivably be forced to pick Obama if neither has the delegates necessary to carry the convention on their own. Should McCain's surprising underperformance against Mike Huckabee continue to an extent to which McCain cannot achieve delegates necessary to winning the nomination, Mitt Romney's 200-plus delegates could come into play. If McCain needed delegates to get over the top, and if he somehow cannot reach an agreement with Huckabee, Romney's collection could be the answer. The two men seem to intensely dislike each other, and Romney as vice president might be marginalized, but at least he would be vice president.

Never Going To Happen: Condoleezza Rice: More people selected Rice than any other candidate in RCP's Veepstakes, but the Secretary of State will simply never make her way onto McCain's list, short or long. An African-American woman on a Republican ticket would be great for the party, of course, but choosing Rice goes against McCain's needs for two reasons: He has so far resisted comparing himself with President Bush, and by selecting someone from the same administration that he is essentially running against, McCain would reverse himself on a central tenet of his campaign. Secondly, as Democrats at all levels of government crank out press releases accusing any member of the GOP of being a Bush Republican, if McCain picked an actual member of the Bush Administration, he would give the "third term" argument that much more plausibility.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Republicans head to the Conservative Political Action Conference in Northwest Washington today, preparing to be wowed by the biggest names and brightest lights in the GOP. Vice President Dick Cheney joins Texas Governor Rick Perry, Bob Novak, George Will, Grover Norquist and, for the first time in his eight years in the White House, even President Bush will stop by to address the fawning masses.

So too will John McCain, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, and the stakes could not be greater. On Super Tuesday, McCain did not perform all that well among conservatives, and many in the movement say they would even be willing to undergo four years of Hillary Clinton if they could avoid McCain as their party leader. Romney was trying to set himself up as the conservative alternative, though his efforts fell short, thanks at least in part to Mike Huckabee's presence in the race.

Romney will head to the hotel today around noon, while McCain is set to be there around 3:00 p.m. How conservatives act toward both of them will be key not only to Romney's increasingly long-shot bid for the nomination but for McCain's own chances in November.

It's not as if McCain is unaware of the issue: He's already enlisted backer and conservative Senator Sam Brownback to reach out to Tony Perkins, of the Family Research Council, and other righty leaders to soothe tensions and help McCain's cause, The Hill reports.

McCain had initially planned to show a video comparing himself to Ronald Reagan, though he has reportedly scrapped those plans and will be introduced instead by conservative Oklahoma Senator Tom Coburn. The idea of a video had met with scorn from some conservative bloggers, who suggested it might backfire.

Will conservatives accept McCain and decide to back him, for the good of the party? Or will their leaders, led by Rush Limbaugh, Laura Ingraham and Ann Coulter, convince them to stay home? Check Politics Nation this afternoon for a full report on McCain's CPAC speech.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

John McCain will win all of Arizona's allocated delegates when polls close this evening. But come November, and even earlier if the Republican primary race continues beyond today's primaries, the Copper State could become a serious albatross around his neck.

McCain's legendary temper and maverick streak have irked members of the GOP on virtually all sides. No one knows that better than those who should be his biggest backers, the top leadership of the Arizona Republican Party. Instead, they are some of his most ardent foes, and McCain's actions earlier this year have done little to assuage their anger.

"The Senate immigration bill put everything into a complete tailspin out here," said one top Arizona Republican who didn't want to be named in order to offer an honest portrait of the situation. After McCain's strong support for comprehensive immigration reform, a bill on which he worked with Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy, some in the state Republican Party made it their goal to derail his entire campaign.

One of those opponents is Rob Haney, chairman of an important legislative district for the Republican Party in Phoenix. "[McCain] has been disregarding us for years," Haney said, "siding with liberals against conservatives for years." Haney says that on issues beyond immigration, McCain is an unreliable vote. "When you take your chance with John McCain, you come out the big loser."

McCain and some more moderate Republicans have for years tried to steer their home state's party to the middle, especially on immigration, though they have been less than successful in doing so. In two key battles, McCain allies lost tough fights to replace foes who could cause harm. Former Governor Fyfe Symington ran against Haney for district chair, and came up short, while a former campaign aide to President Bush -- hardly a McCain flak, but pegged as one nonetheless -- ran for state party chair only to lose by four votes to Randy Pullen, another anti-immigration activist.

Activists' focus on immigration has damaged relations with more state politicians than just McCain. "The immigration debate of last year did create a stir, and there were a lot of folks who were not happy with Senator McCain or me," said Senator Jon Kyl, McCain's national campaign co-chairman and one of his top national surrogates. Haney criticized Kyl, along with Reps. Jeff Flake and John Shadegg, both of whom are backing McCain. "They want that Senate seat, so they're tripping over each other" to support McCain, Haney said.

Nowhere has the immigration debate caused such rifts within a state Republican Party. The top Republican who asked not to be named criticized what he sees as a party overwhelmingly focused on immigration. "One of the reasons they're not being a successful state party is because they're essentially an anti-immigration PAC," he said. "They have essentially thumbed their noses at the business community and the bigger donor community."

State Republicans last year lost two U.S. House seats -- those of retiring moderate Jim Kolbe and immigration hardliner J.D. Hayworth -- as winning Democrats held largely more moderate positions than their GOP counterparts. That, said Kyl, a former state party chair himself, shows what Arizona Republicans need to focus on this year. "Candidates and office-holders take positions on issues and have to stand or fall on the basis of how people react to that," he told Politics Nation. "The party can't possibly represent everybody on a particular issue. Their primary responsibility is to help support their candidates."

Still, those who oppose McCain were emboldened by wins at the state party level and set out to derail his candidacy. Several straw polls were set up, rigged, the top Arizona Republican said, to ensure another candidate would win and cause McCain embarrassment in his home state. Arizona has also been good to candidates other than McCain, most notably Mitt Romney, who's picked up about half the amount of money from the state -- $1.3 million -- that McCain has. McCain has earned close to $2.8 million from his home state, through September 30, according to the FEC.

There is little Haney or other anti-McCain advocates can do about today's results. Polls conducted in recent weeks show McCain with a significant lead of 16.3 points, according to the latest RCP Arizona Average. The state's winner-take-all rules mean even a narrow McCain win will give him a big boost of more than 50 delegates. "At this point, they are in a complete flailing spin trying to discredit McCain as much as they can, and they will do it to no avail," the Republican said of activists in his own party.

But while Haney and others won't be able to boost their favored candidate -- Romney -- to victory tonight, they might just make sure that McCain remembers them as thorns in his side long after polls close tonight. And if they do, McCain's already troubled relations with conservatives around the country could be exacerbated.

Immigration, after all, was the issue that harmed McCain's campaign so much last Spring, bringing his poll numbers down to a miserable level just near the double-digit barrier. Immigration hard-liners from McCain's own state reminding Republicans about his stands might be just the thing for Romney to investigate.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:45 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Many in the media have decamped to sunny California, and for good reason: The state not only provides the biggest targets to campaigns on both sides looking to score their share of the hundreds of delegates available tomorrow, it also allows reporters to stay up late as results roll in. Going to bed at 1 a.m. after the rest of the country has reported is a lot easier than going to bed at 4 a.m.

For at least one candidate, though, California will not be the story. John McCain, once an afterthought, then the front-runner, is seeing his poll numbers in the Golden State sink again. After enjoying leads as high as 19 points, just days after his New Hampshire win, and 13 points, in a CNN/Politico/LA Times poll last week, McCain now owns just a 2-point lead in the latest RCP California Average.

The news may be worse than that. A tracking poll for C-SPAN and Reuters, taken by Zogby, shows distinct movement toward McCain's chief opponent in California, Mitt Romney. After taking the lead yesterday, Romney is now up by eight points. A victory by such a small margin would only give Romney a few extra delegates -- the state allocates most of their Republican delegates in a winner-take-all by Congressional District fashion.

In anticipation of such a result, McCain's team has started downplaying expectations and California's relative importance. "We're going to do very well in the winner-take-all states in the Northeast," spokesman Brian Rogers told Politics Nation today. "California is a toss-up that, at the end of the day, won't be the big story [as long as] we pick up some delegates."

Rogers promoted the importance of states like New York and New Jersey, which award delegates to the statewide winner and in which McCain is far ahead. In fact, if Romney wins a majority in each of California's districts, he would win 170 convention delegates, twelve short of what McCain would win from victories in those two states and his home state of Arizona.

Even if a win in California left Romney at a disadvantage in the rest of the country, it would be a huge boost for a candidate who has looked, if not resigned to his fate, at least on the ropes and badly in need of a victory. A Golden State win could prove to the former Massachusetts governor that a one-on-one race against McCain really could turn to Romney's advantage, and in the end, that could make for a renewed interest in a long-term crusade against the Arizona maverick.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 03:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Speaking to bloggers and reporters before jetting off to Colorado, Mitt Romney continued to hammer rival John McCain today, calling the choice facing Republican voters "a battle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party." This year's race reminded him of the 1976 contest, he said, when Republican voters picked insider Gerald Ford over outsider Ronald Reagan. "The cost of that was Jimmy Carter and four years of malaise," he said.

"Today we have a race that pits a quintessential Washington insider ... against an ousider," Romney said, arguing that McCain "has favors to repay and has scores to settle." "If we post him up against Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, it'll be seen as the candidate of the past ... versus the candidate of the future, of hope and optimism."

Romney maintained the contest is a virtual tie between the two, saying rival Mike Huckabee is becoming less of a factor. Both McCain and Romney have won three contests, he pointed out, blaming his Florida loss on McCain's late endorsements from Governor Charlie Crist and Senator Mel Martinez, "not to mention John McCain's false accusation" that Romney backed a timetable for withdrawal, he said. That attack "obviously did cost me some votes in Florida."

Exit polls showed voters in Florida most concerned with the economy, an issue Romney dominates, went with McCain, another factor Romney attributes to the Crist endorsement. "I scratched my head on that," he admitted, before launching into another sustained barrage on McCain's economic record. Romney continued to imply that McCain is out of his league on the economy, characterizing a recent McCain answer in a debate as "stream-of-consciousness" and "rambling."

Looking ahead to February 5, Romney said he likes his chances. "We have a number of states we think we can win. We have a number of states we think we have a shot in," he hedged, refusing to enumerate which states fell in which categories. Other states where delegates ar