Pope Benedict XVI lands at Andrews Air Force Base today at 4 p.m. Eastern Time, where he will be greeted by President Bush to kick off his inaugural papal visit to the United States. For the next six days, the Pope will visit Washington and New York, even celebrating his 81st birthday in the country (for which the White House has prepared a special dinner that Il Papa will not be attending).

Benedict's presence is sure to capture the attention of Pennsylvania Catholics, a large segment of the voting population that will head to the polls next week. 29% of Pennsylvania voters are Catholic, according to the Pew Research Center's U.S. Religious Landscape Survey, five points higher than the national average. And while ethnic Catholics were once a huge part of the Democratic coalition, that is no longer the case. Still, the group will play a huge role in the Pennsylvania primaries.

Democrats who focus now on winning primary Catholic voters will have a more difficult time wooing that group back in November. In 2004, for the first time in generations, President Bush won more Catholic votes than his Democratic opponent, even though John Kerry is Catholic. When it comes to social issues, Catholics naturally favor the Republican Party, though Hispanic Catholics have increasingly moved toward Democrats.

With John McCain heading the GOP ticket this year, though, his more moderate stance on immigration and his stated anti-abortion views could attract a number of those Hispanic voters. For Democrats, McCain's appeal could spell trouble in heavily Catholic states like New Jersey, New Mexico and Nevada, three potentially swing states where Catholics make up a larger percentage of the populace than the national average.

Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have hired Catholic outreach directors, the New York Times reports, and on Sunday the two headed to Messiah College, a Catholic institution, for a forum on faith and values. Clinton has the backing of prominent Catholics like Robert F. Kennedy's children, who penned an open letter to the state's Catholic voters recently, while Obama has backing from Senator Bob Casey and suburban Philadelphia Rep. Patrick Murphy, both Catholic.

Obama and Clinton also went as far as issuing statements welcoming Benedict to the U.S. "We are blessed to receive a visit from His Holiness, Pope Benedict, to the United States this week," Clinton said. "Not only is he the spiritual leader of America's great Catholic community, he is a strong and effective voice for the cause of peace, freedom, and justice as well as the fight against poverty and disease." Clinton also noted that Vatican City is a global leader on energy conservation.

"At a time when American families face rising costs at home and a range of worries abroad, the theme of Pope Benedict's journey, 'Christ Our Hope,' offers comfort and grace as well as a challenge to all faith communities to put our faith into action for the common good," Obama said in a statement after extending a welcome from himself and wife Michelle. "It will not only be Catholics who are listening to the Holy Father's message of hope and peace; all Americans will be listening with open hearts and minds."

Few religions vote as a bloc, including evangelical Christians. But Catholic voters from the Philadelphia suburbs to the Pittsburgh area could make the difference next Tuesday if they vote en masse for one candidate over another. It's a big enough segment of the population that the candidates might even try to appeal to them in tomorrow's Democratic debate, to be held at the Constitution Center in Philadelphia. In fact, if he's not doing anything, Benedict himself might want to drop by. Certainly both candidates would love to give him a ticket.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Barack Obama is done with his Boeing 737 aircraft and will upgrade to a larger 757 model, The Swamp's John McCormick writes today. On the bigger plane, Obama will ferry his ever-increasing press corps between campaign events, though Obama said the upgrade was also made necessary because the smaller plane was being used for the NCAA tournament.

Politics Nation rode Air Huckabee out of Iowa this year aboard
a Boeing 737. Huckabee, campaign manager Chip Saltsman
and wife Janet Huckabee meet the press.

The question of presidential candidates' choice of campaign plans is one that will move approximately zero votes, and really matters only to an irritable press corps that wants to get from one place to another while avoiding death, if at all possible. That may not always be an option, though, as reporters with Mike Huckabee's campaign found out when their plane required an emergency landing at a New Jersey airport, with CNN's Shawna Shepard and NBC/NJ's Matt Berger aboard.

When Mitt Romney and John McCain used JetBlue charters earlier this year, one couldn't help but notice the choice in aircraft: JetBlue flies A320s, a model manufactured by the European aerospace giant Airbus. Both candidates had excuses, though. McCain and Boeing have a long and testy relationship thanks to hearings the senator held on suspicious Defense Department contracts the company was involved with. And Romney, based in Boston, took advantage of one of JetBlue's main hubs in his own backyard.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Last year, as both parties scrambled to schedule their conventions at the best possible time, Republicans chose a week that will end Thursday, September 4. One problem overlooked in scheduling meetings: The first Thursday in September has also marked the kickoff of football season. Given the 8:30 p.m. start time of the game, John McCain's acceptance speech in St. Paul would have had to compete with an expected matchup between the Super Bowl champion New York Giants and the Washington Redskins.

To avoid a conflict, NBC and the NFL have agreed in principle to kick off the season at 7:00 p.m. in order to make sure the game is over by the time McCain speaks, the Hollywood Reporter writes today. The schedule has not been set yet, with an official announcement slated for the league's owners' meetings, which begin Monday. Networks, too, have not decided how much of the conventions they will cover, but an hour of prime time coverage has been the norm in recent cycles.

Moving a game for a convention is not unprecedented, the Reporter writes. In 2000, ABC asked the NFL to move the start time of an exhibition game in order to accommodate the Democratic National Convention. This year, it was not the Republican National Committee that brought up the potential conflict, but the NFL itself, according to a spokesman. Good to know the league keeps its civic duty in mind when considering their schedule.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

With the resignation Wednesday of former Rep. Geraldine Ferraro from Hillary Clinton's campaign, the list of those no longer affiliated with campaigns thanks to embarrassing personal scandals or ill-advised statements has grown again, and given the amount of attention cable news networks pay to each surrogate's every utterance, the pace shows no signs of slowing.

The LA Times' Scott Martelle has a pretty good list of all those who are no longer with campaigns or had to drop out unexpectedly. Some, like Ferraro and ex-Obama adviser Samantha Powers, needed no assistance from lawyers to step aside. Others, though, are in need of some legal assistance for the faux pas that got them canned.

Our nominees for ex-advisers/aides/supporters of the year have to include: Bob Allen, the Florida state senator who was busted in a public park for soliciting a police officer, an ex-McCain state co-chair. Jay Garrity, Mitt Romney's body man who was accused of impersonating a police officer on a few occasions. And Thomas Ravanel, the wealthy South Carolina State Treasurer and Rudy Giuliani state chair who, for some reason, decided to traffic in cocaine on the side.

Martelle also points out Kristian Forland, a Bill Richardson field director in eastern Nevada, who resigned after his history of bad check-writing came out. Later, it was revealed he was accused of taking money from employees at a local brothel, where he helped out (ex-Clinton backer Eliot Spitzer, Martelle notes in the line of the day, "had the opposite problem").

Should every one of the former aides/advisers/supporters have resigned? Probably not, though most helped their campaign by doing just that. Given the incredible number of reporters, bloggers and cameramen covering the race this year, everyone's going to be caught saying something stupid. Ferraro tried to fight back, though it turns out that didn't work. When will someone successfully defend their comments?

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

As a new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama leading John McCain, the Republican nominee-in-waiting can find pluses and minuses that will steer his campaign in the coming months. In 2004, much of the presidential campaign hinged on national security. Given recent trend lines, if McCain is able to pull off the same feat, his outlook in six months may be significantly better than it is today.

McCain and wife Cindy meet reporters
at Phoenix's Sky Harbor Airport on Monday

Paired against Obama, McCain needs the war in Iraq and national security to play a central role. McCain beats Obama when respondents were asked who they trust to handle the war (48%-43%) and the campaign against terrorism (58%-33%). Obama, though, roles easily on domestic issues, beating McCain on the economy (49%-37%), health care (56%-30%) and even ethics and immigration issues (48%-35% each).

A potential McCain-Obama matchup could follow generally the same arguments Clinton and Obama have been arguing over for months: Are voters looking for a candidate with strength and experience, or for new directions and new ideas? While Clinton's experience argument has not had the desired effect in a primary, more general election voters seem open to the angle than Democratic primary voters have. 45% say strength and experience is more important to them, while 46% prefer a new direction and new ideas.

McCain has been aided by the Democratic candidates' recent squabbling over national security, an issue that seemed to help Clinton over Obama in Tuesday's primaries. But where national security debates help McCain, his association with the GOP still hurts him. Appearing with President Bush yesterday at the White House, McCain launched another round of attacks from Democrats, who have come up with a new label -- "McSame" -- and asserted his election would be essentially a third term for the current incumbent.

While Bush promised his party's new nominee that he would do everything possible to help, including campaigning alongside him, McCain may want to think twice. Just 32%, in the Post-ABC survey, said they approve of the way President Bush is handling his job, matching his all-time low, also reached in January. The latest RCP Average shows Bush with an average approval rating of just 32.2%, while 62% disapprove. The only good part of being seen with the President right now: Voters have plenty of time to forget the image of the two standing next to each other, though Democrats will do everything they can to remind them.

There will be hundreds of polls pitting McCain against the eventual Democratic nominee, and in early months, most will likely show the Republican with ground to make up. But there are advantages within the numbers. If McCain can successfully exploit them, by shaping the debate around foreign policy, the war in Iraq and national security, he has a reasonable shot at winning the White House in November. If he avoids the pitfalls by staying away from his own party's President, he will increase his chances even further.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

In a rare Sunday conference call, DNC chair Howard Dean said his party will file a complaint today with the FEC over John McCain's effort to extricate himself from spending limits he originally agreed to months ago. After winning several early primaries, McCain asked to withdraw from the spending limits, a request the FEC generally agrees to if the candidate has not spent any federal matching money, the Washington Post writes.

But McCain has three problems: First, the FEC can refuse to allow a candidate to get out of his commitment if he has used the potential matching funds to secure a campaign loan, something the DNC argues McCain did. In fact, a loan of several million dollars made to his campaign did come when McCain was applying for the matching funds. As the GOP front-runner, McCain has the ability to raise millions more than he was able to in the primary, but the FEC may decide that, by using matching funds as collateral, he has effectively "spent" the money.

Second, McCain, the DNC argues, needs the FEC to act to allow him to withdraw. The commission issued McCain a letter last week making the same argument. Ordinarily, that would not be a problem. But thanks to a spat between Senate Democrats and Republicans, the FEC is currently made up of just two out of the six commissioners it is supposed to have. Party leaders in the upper chamber are at odds over how to fill the remaining four seats, and without a quorum of four, the body cannot act on anything, delaying a decision on McCain's campaign.

Finally, it is highly unlikely that McCain has not already violated some FEC rules. Accepting matching funds means the Arizona Senator would be limited to spending a total of about $54 million in the primary, which doesn't officially end until the GOP convention in St. Paul, Minnesota, in early September. FEC reports show McCain has already spent $48.4 million through January 31.

Assuming he did not spend a penny in the four days leading up to Super Tuesday, or in later contests this month, he would be left with just $5.6 million to spend in the remaining seven months of the campaign. But McCain's spending has barely slowed, especially after his camp pulled in more than $12 million in January. When FEC reports for February are due, on March 20, they will likely show McCain has easily busted through the $54 million limit. Then again, because the FEC cannot act on any complaints, he won't face penalties for doing so until at least two more commissioners are approved.

McCain's campaign and the Republican National Committee argued that Dean, in his threat to issue a complaint, was being hypocritical. Spokesman Brian Rogers said McCain is currently trying to pull out of the system in exactly the same way Dean did during his presidential run in 2004.

Until the FEC reestablishes a quorum, after the standoff between Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell ends, McCain appears trapped in the system, but the agency cannot punish him. After they return, thanks to the complicated issues raised by the requests and complaints, it is likely the matter will wind up in court. A problem the McCain camp needs to prepare for: How will it look when the candidate who is most seen as a crusader for campaign finance reform is battling the FEC in court?

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Happy Presidents' Day. As with Congress and the federal government, Politics Nation is taking a little breather today. While we do so, prepare for tomorrow's primary, in Wisconsin, and caucuses, in Hawaii, with these handy statistics:

Wisconsin

Population: 5.6 million (90% white, 6% African American, 4.7% Hispanic, 2% Asian)

According to the 2000 census, a little over 22% of Wisconsin residents over 25 years old had earned a bachelor's degree or more. That's slightly below the U.S. average, estimated at 27%.

At 46.3%, Barack Obama has just a 4.3-point lead over Hillary Clinton in the latest RCP Wisconsin Average.

Super delegates for Clinton: Rep. Tammy Baldwin, DNC member Tim Sullivan
Super delegates for Obama: Governor Jim Doyle, Reps. Gwen Moore and David Obey, DNC member Stan Gruszynski

Hawaii

Population: 1.3 million (41% Asian, 23% White, 18% multiple races, 9% Hawaiian, 7% Hispanic)

Just over 26% of Hawaii residents are college graduates, barely under the U.S. average, while 29% of homes speak an Asian language and 66% speak English, one of the lowest rates in the country.

No polls have been conducted in Hawaii, but remember that Asian Americans broke harder for Clinton than even Hispanics did. It may be his home state, but Hawaii could be tough territory for Obama.

Super delegates for Clinton: Senator Daniel Inouye, DNC member Richard Port
Super delegates for Obama: Rep. Neil Abercrombie

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:15 AM | Email Author | Permalink

WASHINGTON, DC -- Turnout remains heavy throughout the Potomac area today, and on both sides. At Stuart Junior High School on Capitol Hill, just a few steps from Politics Nation Plaza, about 500 Democrats had showed up to cast ballots by 1 p.m., an elections clerk said.

Surprisingly, in a city in which just 19,000 people voted for George W. Bush in 2004, the clerks at Stuart have already run out of Republican ballots. Election officials here said they hadn't expected so many GOP voters to turn out, which they said indicated heavy excitement on both sides of the aisle.

No polls have been conducted of Washington voters, but many assume John McCain will carry the city. Still, the plethora of churches in and around the city suggest Mike Huckabee might have a fighting chance.

On the Democratic side, Barack Obama spent part of the morning shaking hands with voters at Eastern Market and at a Dunkin' Donuts in a popular business district on Capitol Hill. Both Obama and McCain later made their way to the Senate floor, where Obama received congratulations from Washington State Senator Patty Murray, a Clinton backer. Obama carried all of Washington's 39 counties in his romp on Saturday.

Polls close in Washington tonight at 8 p.m.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:15 PM | Email Author | Permalink

As we wrote this morning, Barack Obama yesterday floated the idea that Virginia Governor Tim Kaine would be on his short list for a position in the administration. Convenient, given that Virginia holds its primaries today and given that Kaine is the most high-profile Democrat in the state who's chosen a candidate (Former Governor Mark Warner, running for Senate, has not backed a candidate, and neither has Senator Jim Webb).

Obama's public mullings about who would fill his cabinet and got us thinking, and the popularity of Veepstakes, over at the RCP Blog, got us wondering: Who would be a good fit for Obama, Hillary Clinton and John McCain? Today, we're offering the case for a few candidates for each contender in three different posts: Four real contenders, a long-shot hail Mary pick and one candidate to strike from the list.

We'll begin with the junior senator from Illinois, and that governor he was talking about:

Tim Kaine: Watch Virginia's voting pattern today. The incumbent governor, his predecessor and Webb have all won with huge margins in Northern Virginia's suburbs and exurbs, along with increasingly close contests in the state's southern third. If Democrats can tip Virginia toward their column, it will do a lot to getting the party back in the White House. John Kerry tried to woo North Carolina to his side by pulling John Edwards on board, a strategy that didn't work. Virginia is much closer to going blue than North Carolina, and picking Kaine could do the trick. Kaine is young, has management experience Obama lacks and can speak with a southern accent, which would help Obama at least keep the South close.

Kathleen Sebelius: The Kansas governor, like Kaine, helps Obama with management experience he lacks. Obama's outside-the-Beltway message would work well with a Midwestern Democrat elected in the reddest of red states, not once but twice, and he sort of owes her: Her endorsement, the day after the State of the Union, went a long way in advancing the storyline that Obama was starting to gain big-time red state backing, a great way to make the electability argument. And here's a bet to take odds on: If Obama picks Sebelius, she could even put her home state in play. That's not as crazy as it sounds; the Kansas Republican Party has long been split between conservatives like Sam Brownback and more moderate members like Pat Roberts and Bob Dole. Those moderates voted for Sebelius twice, and while they would most likely go with McCain, there's a chance for a big red state coup.

Claire McCaskill: After McCaskill's Obama endorsement, the two seemed attached at the hip. And while Obama won Sebelius' Kansas easily, he needed more help in McCaskill's Missouri, a state so close that several media outlets initially called it for Clinton before switching their projections. Missouri is a bellweather state, and a vice presidential nod could solidify its place in the Democratic camp this year. Plus, Obama the nominee will have just beaten Clinton, the first woman with a real shot at the White House, and he'll need to smooth some ruffled feathers with an important part of the Democratic base. As with Sebelius, picking McCaskill would go far toward healing those wounds. Don't forget, as well, that she was an auditor before winning the Senate seat. "When I was an auditor, stopping corruption in my home state," she could begin, feeding nicely into Obama's change message.

Jim Webb: Virginia's junior, and soon to be senior, Senator would, like Kaine, help move the state into the blue column. While Kaine brings managerial experience, Webb brings a military background, both as a member of the armed services and as former Secretary of the Navy, that both Democratic candidates lack. Webb fits the Obama message of bringing people together as well: A former Republican, he endorsed George Allen in 2000, then ran against him and beat him in 2006. A gun-toting ex-Marine former Republican Southerner would open a lot of new doors to Obama, probably as many, if not more so, than Kaine would.

Longshot: Mike Bloomberg: The billionaire Mayor, like Kaine and Sebelius, brings managerial experience to the table, and in a big way. Whether it's a Fortune 500 company he built himself or the largest city in America, he's been there, run that. And now that McCain looks like the GOP nominee, and assuming Obama wins the Democratic side, Bloomberg's hopes of swooping into the middle and attracting any votes for himself in the top spot have faded. The former Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-Independent doesn't add anything geographically, but he embodies competent management that remains a nice contrast with the Bush Administration. If Democrats keep hammering the notion that any Republican embodies a third term for President Bush, they're going to have to come up with someone who has made government work, and Bloomberg could be just that candidate.

Never Going To Be: John Edwards: The one-time vice presidential pick is old news. Obama wants his endorsement, and he wants Edwards' voters, but picking him for the number two spot brings too many negatives. Obama's argument that he was right the first time about Iraq is a powerful contrast with McCain, so why have someone on the ticket who voted the wrong way? In fact, why have someone who has apologized for a number of votes he took? Republicans are going to hammer Obama for lack of experience and, therefore, a lack of judgment. Picking Edwards only gives the GOP more fodder.

Check back in an hour for Hillary Clinton's veep possibilities.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

In 2004, Washington State Republicans screamed bloody murder when Attorney General Christine Gregoire won election to the governor's mansion by a margin of barely more than 100 votes. In recent years, several Washington State elections departments have lost absentee ballots, been woefully slow in reporting results and generally made a mess of the system.

This year, it is the state Republican Party that is coming under fire for mishandling results from Washington's Saturday caucuses. With 87% of precincts reporting, John McCain held a narrow lead of about 1.7% over Mike Huckabee, and Huckabee's camp was understandably unhappy when GOP chairman Luke Esser called the race for the Arizonan.

In a statement, Huckabee campaign chairman Ed Rollins, a veteran political operative, said it was a move he hadn't seen in four decades in politics. "It would be a disservice to every voter in Washington state to not pursue a full accounting of all votes cast," Rollins said. "That is an outrage."

The Huckabee campaign has dispatched lawyers to the state to sort the mess out, the second time in four years attorneys have argued over Washington's voting process. The Huckabee team is well aware of that fact: "Washington Republicans know, from bitter experience in the 2004 gubernatorial election, the terrible results that can come from bad ballot counting," the campaign said in a statement, according to the Seattle Times.

Meanwhile, state Republicans will allocate half their delegates to the national convention based on next Tuesday's primary, with which there have also been complications. The Associated Press writes thousands of ballots are being thrown out because voters aren't signing an oath declaring themselves Democrats or Republicans. In King County, the state's largest and home to Seattle, more than one in five ballots have been thrown out, elections officials said.

Though Politics Nation is a proud Evergreen Stater, it looks like Washington is getting better at botching elections than Florida is. The Sunshine State made a mess, regardless of final results, of the 2000 presidential contest as well as a 2006 congressional race -- though Rep. Vern Buchanan was found to have won in the end, according to a report by the Government Accountability Office released last week, it still took fifteen months to make that determination. The Rainy State took a lawsuit to decide the governor's race and now might have screwed up the Republican caucuses.

If the state has one more misstep, Oregon Secretary of State Bill Bradbury might begin to get ideas about annexing Washington's elections department. He might have to: After the retirement of longtime Secretary of State Ralph Munro in 2000, no one in Washington can seem to get it right.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:15 AM | Email Author | Permalink

10:45 -- It was, as expected, a good night for Obama. A clean sweep, in fact, winning by huge margins in NE and WA and what looks to be a double digit margin in LA, if it holds. He also picked up 3 pledged delegates from the US Virgin Islands, according to Ben Smith, which is nothing to sneeze at given the way this race is going. Prior to this evening, Clinton held a 62 delegate lead over Obama (including super delegates), but when the smoke clears tomorrow morning Obama should probably edge ahead by the slightest of margins. - TOM BEVAN

9:35 -- Finally some results for the GOP in Washington. With 16% in: McCain 27, Huck 26, Paul 21, Romney 17. - TOM BEVAN

9:30 -- Exits in Louisiana look good for Obama and show a close race between Huck and McCain. - TOM BEVAN

9:05 -- With Louisiana polls just closed, it appears Obama will carry Louisiana as well. Still, exit polls appear to show Obama with less than a ten-point win, leaving the nets unable to make a call just yet. African Americans made up 44% of the electorate, which is high for a national average, but probably low for Louisiana, where 30% of the total electorate in 2004 was black. As Louisiana's population fled after Hurricane Katrina, did Mary Landrieu's chances of winning re-election to her Senate seat flee as well?

8:58 -- Once again, Democratic turnout is massive. Washington State Democrats say they're close to 200,000, which could more than double the previous record, set in 2004, the Seattle P-I reports.

8:33 -- The Seattle Times has virtually called the race for Obama. "Barack Obama coasting to victory in Washington," the Times' headline reads. "Obama way ahead in early returns," the Seattle P-I heads. No calls from the networks yet.

8:24 -- With 35% in, Obama leads with about 67% of the delegates from Washington State, compared with 32% for Clinton.

8:19 -- With 73% of the vote reporting, Barack Obama has won the Nebraska caucuses, NBC News projects. He's got 69% of the vote compared with 31% for Clinton. Washington State and Louisiana are still out. Clinton speaks at the Virginia Jefferson-Jackson dinner momentarily.

7:55 -- Just asking, it's now four hours after Washington's caucuses began. Both Democrats and Republicans are done. In Nebraska, it's been a similar length of time. Where are our results? AP expects Nebraska to begin reporting in about 5 minutes.

6:21 -- A heavily Democratic precinct in South Seattle gave four delegates to Obama and just one to Clinton. Nearly a hundred people attended that particular caucus, in the city's diverse 37th Legislative District, which has large African American, Latino and Asian populations. Meanwhile, Seattle Times political guru David Postman reports just 100 people showed up to caucus in all the district's Republican precincts -- of which there are 140. Don't extrapolate that to the entire state: The 37th District votes overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates in general elections. Still, it's yet another measure of massive turnout on the Democratic side.

6:10 -- The Clinton camp wants to make sure the media keeps results in proportion: "The Obama campaign has dramatically outspent our campaign in these three states, saturating the airwaves with 30 and 60 second ads. The Obama campaign has spent $300,000 more in Louisiana on television ads, $190,000 more in Nebraska and $175,000 more in Washington," the Clinton camp said in a statement released just now. "Although the next several states that hold nominating contests this month are more favorable to the Obama campaign, we will continue to compete in them and hope to secure as many delegates as we can before the race turns to Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania."

6:06 -- A sign of how lopsided tonight's Washington Democratic caucuses could be: At a precinct in Bellingham, a very liberal college town twenty minutes from the Canadian border, 83% of caucus attendees chose Obama. Clinton backers scored one delegate, undecided voters won a delegate and Obama will take ten delegates to the Whatcom County convention.

4:41 -- Not to kill the suspense, but we're not going to have any exit poll or entrance poll information to report today. The consortium is not conducting the polls today, saving their ammunition, perhaps, for the Potomac Primary.

4:20 -- Barack Obama currently holding a town hall in Bangor, Maine. The rest of today's schedule: Huckabee visits Walter Reed in Washington. Clinton and Obama are both in Richmond, Virginia, for state Democrats' Jefferson-Jackson Dinner. Tomorrow, Huckabee's on Meet the Press and Face the Nation. Obama's in Alexandria and Virginia Beach, while Clinton holds events in Catonsville, Maryland and Roanoke, Virginia

4:11 -- Just a thought: If Huckabee does well in today's Washington caucuses, as we wrote yesterday, credit his performance to an emergence of evangelical voters on the east side of Lake Washington. But along with Nevada, Washington has a smaller church attending population than any other state in the country.

4:07 -- Huckabee is already in the Potomac Primary states, addressing the media today in College Park, Maryland, just north of Washington D.C. Huckabee, who has long praised John McCain for being what he calls an American hero, took after his rival on campaign finance reform and other issues on which the two disagree. "We genuinely I think like each other," Huckabee said. Still, "there are contrasts."

4:01 p.m. ET -- As Washington State voters begin to caucus, one set of results is already in. With 76% of the precincts reporting, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has won the Kansas Republican caucuses by an overwhelming 62% to 22% margin. In the Evergreen State, expect a big day for Barack Obama.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 04:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

John McCain and Hillary Clinton entered last night as something like frontrunners -- indisputably for McCain, tenuously arguably for Clinton -- and left in very different states.

This morning, McCain will hold a press conference after winning nine states and somewhere around half the delegates available last night. Clinton, meanwhile, flies from New York to Washington to take votes on the economic stimulus package after winning at least eight states, including six of the nine largest, and nearly as many delegates as rival Barack Obama. Later, she will hold a press conference in Arlington, Virginia.

A measure of their relative success, though, can be found in how they will spend their time over the next week: Sky News, via First Read, reports McCain will likely head to a European security summit in Munich he has attended in recent years, and has requested a meeting with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown during a stop in London.

Clinton, on the other hand, wants to spend more time debating Obama, AdAge writes. Only two kinds of candidates ever want to debate more: Those who are behind and those who have no money. Clinton's team certainly isn't running out of money, after raising $13 million in January (though it sure looks like it when Obama raises $32 million), but they may be starting to suspect that they're behind.

The normal reaction of a candidate in the lead, like Obama, is to stall on making commitments to future debates. With just a few days before the rapid-fire contests, though, Team Obama won't have to stall for long. It is likely, though, that the two will meet somewhere in the Washington, D.C. area on Monday before Tuesday's Potomac Primary.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:40 AM | Email Author | Permalink

The first wave of exits, which only characterize the demographics of the voting population, may show an early advantage to Hillary Clinton, though Barack Obama has reason to smile as well. And as AP reports, turnout is once again higher among Democrats than among Republicans.

About half of Democrats said the economy was the most pressing issue, while just 3 in 10 said the war in Iraq mattered most to their vote. Clinton has done better among economic voters, while Obama has done best among Iraq voters. Health care, another issue on which those who care most favor Clinton, makes up the top concern of another two in ten voters.

Younger voters are once again making up a smaller portion of the electorate, down from the 22% of the electorate in Iowa that was under 30. In general, the older the electorate, the better it's been for Clinton. As in other primaries, a much higher percentage of Clinton voters cited experience as most important -- about half -- while three quarters of Obama voters cited change as the top reason for favoring their candidate. Experience has generally made up a larger portion of Clinton's vote in previous contests.

Half of voters had made their mind up a month ago -- seemingly a good sign for Clinton, who led in many polls in Super Tuesday states -- while about one in ten voters made up their minds today and another tenth within the last three days. Those proportions are approximately the same as exit polls showed in Iowa and South Carolina, while more New Hampshire voters tended to make up their minds late. Still, that could be good for Obama: When voters broke late in New Hampshire, they broke away from him. If they're not breaking late in Super Tuesday states, they may not be breaking toward Clinton.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 06:50 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Amid largely trouble-free elections so far this primary season, at least one campaign is worried about serious troubles in Arizona, where voters today are casting their ballots. John McCain is likely to score a big win on the GOP side, but among Democrats, the race is a fierce battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

Clinton leads by 6 points in the latest RCP Arizona Average, but Obama has support from Rep. Raul Grijalva and Governor Janet Napolitano, giving him an organization on which to rely.

Clinton's camp, though, says funny business is going on at polling places around the state. Polling place locations have been changed and some names are missing from voter rolls. The Clinton camp just released a statement reminding voters they can cast provisional ballots. If problems are widespread, Obama's vote total could be affected as well, putting a new spotlight on what is already a closely watched barometer.

Still, it has been remarkable that the two biggest voting problems -- running out of appropriate stickers at some Democratic caucuses in Iowa and temporary shortages of ballots in New Hampshire -- have been relatively minor. Voting reforms must have come a long way since debacles in Florida and Washington State in recent years. A good sign of things to come for November?

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

In an era when the latest radio ad a candidate broadcasts can get more listens on the web than over the airways, when everyone is connected by blogs and sites like this, chock full of constantly updated news, everything can be spun to look sleazy. But this year is nothing new: Candidates poll, and they don't always poll their own positive ratings. The only difference is that now, we all know when and where they're polling, and from that information we can gather just what kind of poll they're conducting.

Consider this LA Times report, in which retiree Ed Coghlan, who used to direct news for a local television station in California, received a call from a pollster asking questions about the three leading Democrats (before John Edwards dropped out) and John McCain. Every question asked about Clinton was positive, while many questions about the other candidates were generally negative.

The call was clearly a push poll, right? Not at all. The survey lasted 20 minutes, far too long to be effective in reaching a wide number of voters in time for that state's massive primary. That it was a Clinton poll is in little doubt, and it shouldn't be viewed as malicious. Candidates on all sides need to know the most effective arguments for their own candidacies and against their opponents. Politics is, after all, a zero-sum game: If Barack Obama or Clinton get more than 50% of the vote in a poll, their opponent cannot win by building his or her vote total; they have to take votes away from the other candidate.

Obama's camp has not, as far as we've seen, responded to this poll, and they shouldn't. One of their great lines, that Obama is running a different kind of campaign, is a little misleading: Obama is doing well, some might say leading the Democratic race, precisely because he is running a normal campaign better than Clinton is. It is certain that his campaign has conducted similar polls; how else could they explain their effective use of messages against Clinton? Further, by not reacting to every perceived insult, Obama's team stays on their message and on their game.

But, in this day of constant twists and turns, when literally thousands of media outlets, both new and old, are chasing every angle of every story possible, everything starts to look sinister. No matter how perfect someone's preferred candidate looks, if they're still in the race they're doing something right, and polling an opponent's flaws is an important part of a winning campaign.

Every report of a push poll, in short, needs to be taken with two grains of salt: First, remember that these campaigns, and the outside groups trying to influence them, are run by political professionals whose first job is to win. Second, their methods aren't always underhanded, and not every call that asks about someone else's negatives should be met with a righteous outcry.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Time Magazine will lead this week with a look at the rise of the younger voter, spurred to the polls by Barack Obama's star power. If that sounds familiar, replace the name "Barack Obama" with "Howard Dean" or any of the large number of candidates who supposedly have relied on the youth vote over the years, and one or many news outlets wrote the same story then.

Most candidates who rely on the youth vote end up disappointed at the end when younger voters don't bother showing up. But Obama remains a front-runner after big victories in two states. For all the talk of younger voters flocking toward their favored candidate, though, the numbers tell a less spectacular story: Yes, youth turnout is up. But, the numbers show, not that much.

Those between the ages of 17-29 who are eligible to caucus made up 22% of the Iowa electorate this year, up only 5 points from 2004. In New Hampshire, turnout among those 18-29 was 18%, up 4 points from four years ago. In South Carolina, the 14% of the electorate who are young was up 5 points.

Many more young people turned out this year, but turnout was up across the board, and youth voters rose only slightly more than the population at large. Perhaps more telling, younger voters are making up smaller portions of the electorate. Those under 29 made up just 9% in Florida, and the numbers have decreased in each successive state.

Obama is doing well among younger voters, but it's not a key portion of his coalition. Obama's success rests on a more traditional base of Democrats. As Gordon Fischer, a top Obama adviser and former Iowa Democratic Party chairman, told Politics Nation a few months ago, the youth vote is the icing on the cake, but the campaign is still baking the cake.

Finally, it seems, a campaign that the media says will benefit from a big youth boom is not letting the hype go to its head. Ask President Dean how much good the promise of a younger voter surge actually does.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:25 AM | Email Author | Permalink

For two years, dozens of states have complained about so called "front-loading" of the primaries, worrying that the rush to the beginning of the calendar would only increase the influence of Iowa and New Hampshire and their lead-off contests. Now, though, with two Democrats each having won two contests and three Republicans having won battles in six states, local newspapers are discovering that their states actually matter.

With twenty-two states fighting for attention on February 5, political writers everywhere are the biggest winners in the increasingly confused nomination battles. Candidates are only too willing to oblige: Hillary Clinton landed in Tennessee on Saturday and heads to Massachusetts and Connecticut today, while her husband stopped in Missouri. Barack Obama hits Kansas later this week after stopping in Georgia and Alabama yesterday.

Those sound more like general election schedules than primary schedules. Republicans are centered on Florida until tomorrow, but afterwards, expect similarly distant and spread-out itineraries.

Check out the response some newspapers have today:

"For candidates of both parties, Tennessee has become a strategic piece of ground in the 22-state battle for delegates," the Knoxville News Sentinel writes. "Colorado on campaigns' radar," heads the Rocky Mountain News.

The Star-Ledger of Newark, New Jersey: " It was 1984, the last time New Jersey's votes in a presidential primary mattered. This year, for the first time in 24 years, New Jersey will matter once again. After decades of feeling neglected, the Garden State moved up its presidential primary to Feb. 5." The Philadelphia Inquirer agrees: "With the New Jersey primary scheduled for Feb. 5, moved up from the traditional first Tuesday in June, the state's electorate is positioned to weigh in while the races are still in flux."

Even in Obama's home state, the race matters: