It may be early, but two incumbent senators seeking re-election are already up with television ads aiming to bolster their already-strong chances at another six years in office. Senator Max Baucus, the conservative Montana Democrat who chairs the Senate Finance Committee, and Senator Lindsey Graham, the moderate South Carolina Republican, have debuted two very different spots, and for very different reasons.

For Baucus, the math is simple: Avoid a strong challenger. The five-term senator has faced only one very strong challenge, from now-Rep. Denny Rehberg in 1996, when he took 50% to the Republican's 45%. In other years, Baucus has not slipped below 65%. National Republicans went to Rehberg urging him to run again this year, but he refused.

Baucus is now up with an ad featuring two Republicans, one the former head of the Montana Hospital Association, and a registered nurse, all of whom testify to Baucus' power in Washington and his connection to his home state. The ad, produced by Democratic powerhouse GMMB, is intended to remind Montanans that unlike Conrad Burns, Baucus' colleague until 2006, the Democrat has not lost touch with his roots.

Graham is facing the threat of a primary challenge from Republicans angry with his more moderate positions on immigration and for his role in the so-called "Gang of 14," the group of Senators who helped break an impasse over judicial confirmations. RNC committeeman Buddy Witherspoon has already launched a challenge, and though Graham has a financial and political advantage, he's not taking any chances.

In order to shore up his conservative credentials, Graham is turning to the one person least likely to be seen in GOP television spots as November approaches. "I'm proud to stand with Senator Lindsey Graham. He bases his votes on conservative principles," President Bush says, praising Graham's work on confirming Supreme Court Justices John Roberts and Samuel Alito.

The ad, produced by Scott Howell & Co., is at once a reminder of Bush's remaining relevance and what could be his swan song in political spots. Ahead of the June GOP primary, Graham wants help from a face party regulars recognize and still love. And though he is known as one of John McCain's strongest allies, Graham turned instead to the president to get the job done. Come November, it will be McCain's face that replaces Bush's in many GOP Senate ads.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham is getting it on all sides. Republicans are unhappy with Graham's position on immigration, among other issues. Until a federal indictment for cocaine distribution, Treasurer Thomas Ravenel, a fellow Republican, was said to be set to mount a bid against the freshman Senator. Rumors of a Republican primary challenger continue to swirl, focusing on David Wilkins, the current U.S. Ambassador to Canada and former State House Speaker, among other candidates.

Now, Graham is getting a Democratic opponent, and one stronger than he probably contemplated. Former State Democratic Party Chairman Joe Erwin, a wealthy public relations executive from Greenville, said yesterday he's contemplating a Senate race.

Erwin stepped down from his position as party chairman in April as rumors of a bid first cropped up. He told the Associated Press yesterday that he has since received encouragement from around the state, and that top Democrats are launching a serious draft campaign.

State party chairs don't have the best success in statewide races -- think former Arizona Democratic Party chairman Jim Pederson, who lost a bid for Senate last year, or former Colorado Republican Party chairman Bob Beauprez, who lost his bid for governor in 2006. Still, Erwin, like Pederson, would be able to kick-start his campaign with a loan. Even if Graham survives a bitterly contested primary, South Carolina Republicans are unlikely to choose a Democrat over their nominee, and Erwin could give the incumbent a closer race than he would like.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:25 AM | Email Author | Permalink