State Senator Kay Hagan easily bested her primary opponents last night in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, taking 60% of the vote to just 18% for her closest rival, developer Jim Neal. Hagan will now face what could be a monumental struggle to unseat first-term incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole in November.

Hagan was not the initial choice of Washington Democrats, who pursued outgoing Governor Mike Easley and several other potential candidates before coalescing around her. But during her time on the trail, Hagan has showed a prolific fundraising ability, raking in a whopping $1.5 million so far. She spent most of that during the primary season, reporting just $317,000 on hand as of the middle of April, but her ability to raise money should keep her at least competitive with Dole.

But Dole has advantages of her own. With $3.15 million in the bank, she starts the general election contest with a huge head start, and Dole is virtually universally known throughout the state. Polls have showed most voters have a favorable opinion of her and say she's doing a good job in office, making Hagan's task that much more difficult.

National Democrats, replete with money to spend on Senate races, might wade in to North Carolina if they see encouraging poll numbers. If Democrats are to have a chance to win a huge Senate majority, they will need to do so on the backs of states like North Carolina, where second-tier contests will be a serious challenge. Dole remains a heavy favorite at the moment, but she will have to pay attention to her state's political winds to make sure she stays that way.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

On a day when Mark Warner declares his candidacy for a Senate seat in Virginia that appears to be his for the taking, one might recall Senator Jim Webb's upset of incumbent Republican George Allen as the biggest surprise in 2006. This year, if Democrats are to achieve any measure of massive majority in the Senate, they will need at least one more Jim Webb to come along and upset someone thought to be an entrenched incumbent.

Two new surveys in North Carolina show that the state may be this year's answer to Virginia in 2006, especially given what is likely to be a blowout in the Democratic primary. The first, a Mason-Dixon poll, surveyed 400 likely Democratic primary voters between 4/28-29 on behalf of WRAL-TV, for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Hagan, investment banker Jim Neal, attorney Marcus Williams, truck driver Duskin Lassiter and Howard Staley, a doctor, were tested.

Primary Election Matchup
(All / Men / Wom)
Hagan 42 / 34 / 48
Neal 17 / 21 / 14
Williams 5 / 5 / 5
Lassiter 2 / 2 / 2
Staley 1 / 2 / --

Initially, Hagan and Neal were polling neck and neck, but after a blitz of television advertising and stronger than expected fundraising numbers, Hagan has pulled out to a big lead. If Hagan pulls off a big win in tomorrow's primary election, it could give her a boost as she begins to target incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole.

A Dole-Hagan matchup could prove a close contest, as a new poll from Research 2000 suggests. The survey, taken 4/28-30 on behalf of DailyKos, tested 600 likely general election voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Hagan, Neal and Dole were tested.

General Election Matchups
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Dole 48 / 15 / 87 / 47 / 52 / 44 (+2 from last, 12/07)
Hagan 41 / 70 / 8 / 39 / 38 / 44 (+2)

Dole 49 / 16 / 87 / 49 / 53 / 45 (+2)
Neal 39 / 67 / 8 / 38 / 36 / 42

In a general election match, Hagan would start as a distinct underdog. Through the April 16 filing deadline (later because the state's primaries are so close to the end of the quarter), Hagan had just $317,000 in the bank, a tenth of Dole's $3.15 million. And in a state John McCain is likely to carry no matter the Democratic presidential nominee, convincing down-ballot voter to split their tickets could be difficult.

But Hagan has raised an impressive $1.52 million, much of which she has spent on making the primary with Neal a blowout. And trailing by just seven points in public polls is on par with Webb and others from the 2006 cycle; a Democratic poll taken in late June, 2006, showed Webb trailing Allen by a 46%-39% margin, and a Mason-Dixon poll in late July had Allen leading by a whopping 16 points. And Hagan's campaign brags that only Missouri's Claire McCaskill and Ohio's Sherrod Brown have raised more money through the First Quarter of 2006.

Beating Dole, a well-known incumbent, will be difficult. But Hagan starts out with relatively high name recognition -- 44% view her favorably, while just 25% view her unfavorably and 31% have no opinion. Dole has the same 44% favorable rating, though 41% say they view her unfavorably, which could be a problem for the incumbent down the line. Barring any mistakes, Dole will remain the favorite heading into the fall. At the moment, though, Hagan looks poised to capitalize on any slip up, and there's a long way to go before November.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Two Democrats, up with their first advertisements of the year, are showing that challengers can still run against Washington, D.C., even when their party controls Congress. The candidates, Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley and North Carolina State Senator Kay Hagan, launched both ads this week in advance of their respective primaries on May 20 and May 6.

"Tired of his party's inaction, Jeff Merkley led Democrats back to power," Merkley's 30-second ad begins. In the state Senate, Hagan's ad claims, she "brought change," "but now, Washington is broken and needs the kind of change Kay represents." The lines in each ad show what comes of a Congressional approval rating in the low twenties, according to the latest RCP Congressional Average.

Both Democrats are the national party's favored choice to take on Republican incumbents Gordon Smith, in Oregon, and Elizabeth Dole, in North Carolina. And while some Republicans suggest Congress' poor approval rating could hurt Democrats in November, the new congressional majority still enjoys a big generic ballot lead in recent polls. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll out earlier this month shows voters prefer a Democratic-led Congress by a 49% to 35% margin over a GOP-controlled legislature, and Democrats lead by 10.4% in the latest RCP Generic Ballot Average.

"The common refrain we hear from people all across the state is that they feel as though Washington has forgotten about them," Hagan communications director Colleen Flanagan told Politics Nation. "Kay has a proven record that shows she's been working for North Carolinians for years." Republicans in challenger races around the country have also made attacking Washington a priority, and it looks like neither party is going to give the nation's capitol a break.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

EMILY's List, an outspoken and powerful group that backs women candidates running as pro-choice Democrats, has waded in to two more primaries in recent days, bolstering a front-runner and an underdog in North Carolina and Virginia. Whether the organization will do harm or good in at least one of those contests, though, is still up in the air.

The group, whose endorsement comes with access to a wealthy and vast fundraising list, is backing former Rep. Leslie Byrne, a Democrat running to replace retiring Virginia Republican Tom Davis, and North Carolina State Senator Kay Hagan, who is running for the right to face Senator Elizabeth Dole in November.

In the Tar Heel State, the endorsement was bestowed upon the leading Democratic candidate. Hagan faces investment banker Jim Neal in the May 6 primary, and with an electoral base and impressive early fundraising, looks to be the likely nominee. Through the end of the year, Hagan had $515,000 in the bank, about three times what Neal had stored up. Both candidates trail Dole by a wide margin; she had almost $2.7 million on hand through December.

It's not the first race EMILY's List is involved with in North Carolina. Earlier, the group announced its backing of Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue, in what has become a contentious Democratic primary for governor with State Treasurer Richard Moore.

While Hagan may be a safe choice for the group, the decision to back Byrne in Virginia will be more contentious. The Eleventh District, which Davis has represented since 1994, is one of the most narrowly split districts in the country, giving President Bush just a 2,000 vote win in 2004. Based in rapidly-expanding Northern Virginia, the area is ripe for a Democratic takeover, especially considering the recent strong performance of state Democrats.

But many believe Byrne isn't the candidate for the job. Nominated for Lieutenant Governor in 2005, she lost to Republican Bill Bolling even as Democrat Tim Kaine took the top job, largely on the strength of impressive vote totals in the Washington suburbs and exurbs. Local Democrats have better feelings toward Fairfax County Council chairman Gerry Connolly, though Byrne's name recognition and base -- she was the incumbent Democrat Davis beat in 1994 -- make her a tough competitor in the primary.

EMILY's List's role in the race became more evident this week when the group paid for part of a mailing slamming Connolly for "bullying" tactics on the supervisors' board, the Washington Post reported today, and for hiding relationships with organizations that eventually got contracts with the county. Byrne's campaign paid for the rest of the mailing.

Connolly, who released a poll recently showing him with a two-to-one lead over Byrne, hit back hard, accusing his rival of "swift boating" fellow Democrat Mark Warner during the 1996 Senate race and implied the future governor and now-Senate candidate was a racist.

The scrum is one of the first major blow-ups in a race that isn't expected to get any nicer. The winner of the June primary will face off with businessman Keith Fimian, for whom Davis cleared the GOP field. While the Democratic primary may be ugly, the party is favored to pick up the seat, as Politico's Josh Kraushaar wrote in his extensive look at the district this week.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

DailyKos continues their baseline poll series with a new look at Senator Elizabeth Dole's chances at re-election. The survey shows the once-embattled former NRSC chair in pretty good shape leading up to a potential second term.

The Research 2000 poll, taken between 12/16-18, sampled 600 likely voters. Dole, State Sen. Kay Hagan and banker Jim Neal were tested. The sample was made up of 42% Democrats, 38% Republicans and 20% independent and other voters.

General Election Matchups
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Dole 46 / 13 / 85 / 41 / 49 / 43
Hagan 39 / 67 / 7 / 38 / 36 / 42

Dole 47 / 14 / 85 / 44 / 49 / 45
Neal 37 / 64 / 7 / 37 / 36 / 38

Dole's favorable rating is not the best it could be -- just 46% view her favorably while 38% have an unfavorable view. And as Democrats are made more aware of her opponents and back them at rates higher than the mid-60% level, the race will likely close. Still, Dole will be well-funded, and her lead among independents is good news.

Both Neal and Hagan are little known. About 40% of respondents have never heard of them, while just 16% have no opinion of Dole. Each has a long way to go to toppling an incumbent, but as the poll demonstrates, their tasks are difficult but not impossible.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 03:10 PM | Email Author | Permalink

After a disastrous term at the helm of the National Republican Senatorial Committee in 2006, after months of headlines questioning her retirement plans and months of giddy Democrats pointing to her sinking approval rating, Sen. Elizabeth Dole looked like she might face a tough race for re-election next year. Now, after several top-tier Democrats took their names out of contention, Dole will face either investment banker Jim Neal or State Sen. Kay Hagan.

Hagan took her own name out of contention three weeks ago but has changed her mind, the AP reports today. Hagan's entry comes a week after Neal said publicly that he is gay, though she said his sexual orientation had nothing to do with her candidacy.

Even without a Democratic primary to drain the eventual nominee's bank accounts, Dole is in much better shape now than she's looked for several years. Having stockpiled over $2.3 million through the end of the third quarter, even her approval rating is climbing steadily. A poll conducted in late September by Elon University showed 50% of North Carolinians approving of her job performance, while just 25% disapproved. A Voter/Consumer Research poll, conducted for Dole, showed her job approval at 64% in mid-September, up three points from a June survey.

The fact that Dole has conducted two polls in the past few months shows that she won't take 2008 lightly. That can be good news for Republicans: The senator is unlikely to be surprised by any Democratic challenger. Democrats with a glass-half-full attitude can find good news, too: With Dole focusing on her own race, she will have less time to stump and fundraise for other candidates.

Neither Neal nor Hagan has filed with the FEC, and with a $2 million gap to make up, it is Dole's opponents, rather than the senator herself, who face a mountain the size of Kilimanjaro.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink