Public Policy Polling's (D) latest survey in North Carolina finds not much has changed for Sen. Richard Burr (R) as the year to Election Day begins.

His job approval rating is just 40 percent, typically a warning sign for an incumbent. But against several potential Democratic foes, the numbers have changed little since last month's survey, with Burr still ahead by double-digits. The only significant change being a 6-point uptick in a matchup of the incumbent versus a generic Democrat. "It's gotten closer because Democrats this month expressed a stronger commitment to supporting their party nominee," a PPP analysis says.

General Election Matchups
Burr 44 -- Cunningham 31 -- Und 25
Burr 45 -- Etheridge 35 -- Und 20
Burr 44 -- Foy 32 -- Und 23
Burr 45 -- Lewis 32 -- Und 26
Burr 45 -- Marshall 34 -- Und 21
Burr 45 -- Wicker 33 -- Und 22

Burr 44 -- Generic D 40 -- Und 16

More from PPP:

"Every poll we do on Richard Burr provides more evidence that his fate will be tied up in the national climate," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. "His approval numbers are mediocre but he'll still get reelected if it's a Republican year. If things move back in a more Democratic direction he's extremely vulnerable."

The automated telephone survey of 711 state voters was conducted November 9-11, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.7%.

Posted by Mike Memoli at 11:45 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) leads by 11 points in his bid for re-election, according to a new Civitas Institute poll (Oct. 20-21, 600 LV, MoE +/- 4%) -- the second survey on Burr's re-election hopes to be released today.

The Elon University Poll out earlier today found that just 19% of North Carolina adults think Burr deserves re-election. The Civitas poll, however, finds Burr well ahead of Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, though still under 50%.

Burr 44
Marshall 33
Und 23

Civitas asked supporters of both candidates whether they were definitely for, probably for, or just leaning toward voting for them -- 33% said they were definitely voting for Burr compared to just 18% who said the same about Marshall.

"Burr is in a very good position right now relative to his potential rival," said Civitas executive director Francis De Luca. "Not only does he lead by 10 points, but his base of support is nearly twice as strong as Marshall's. In fact, more voters are solidly in Burr's camp than show support for Marshall."

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 03:20 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Not since 1968 has the Senate seat currently held by Richard Burr (N.C.) been won in re-election, and the seat has switched parties in every election since 1980. Whether Burr can break both trends remains to be seen.

With the economy atop the list of important issues to North Carolinians, Burr's electoral outlook a year from now could look drastically different than it does today -- depending on how much the economy improves and how voters see Burr's role in it.

Today, less than one-in-five North Carolina adults think Burr deserves re-election, according to the new Elon University Poll (Oct. 26-29, 703 A, MoE +/- 3.8%), while 42 percent say it's time for someone new to have a chance.

Rather than showing a severe disapproval of Burr's service, however, the survey shows that voters aren't tuned in yet to the race. Just 22% disapprove of the job he's doing and 22% are dissatisfied with his representation, but his positive marks aren't much higher. A large chunk say they simply don't know.

President Obama's approval rating is at 53% -- up 3 points from his Nov. 2008 election take -- however just 43% approve of the way he's handling the economy. Voters are split on how much confidence they have in Congress, and just 30% say the country is going in the right direction.

"Citizens appear agitated with the perceived lack of progress that Congress, the president, and their senators have made in addressing their main concern -- the economy," said Elon polling director Hunter Bacot. "It will be interesting to see just how long their patience with this administration and Congress will last."

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 11:55 AM | Email Author | Permalink

The seat that Sen. Richard Burr (R) now holds has changed hands every six years for decades. But even with an approval rating that would be considered dangerous for an incumbent at this point, Burr is poised to buck that trend, a new PPP (D) poll finds.

General Election Matchups
Burr 46 -- Cunningham 27 -- Und 27
Burr 44 -- Etheridge 33 -- Und 23
Burr 45 -- Foy 29 -- Und 26
Burr 44 -- Lewis 30 -- Und 26
Burr 44 -- Marshall 32 -- Und 24
Burr 43 -- Wicker 30 -- Und 26

Burr 45 -- Generic D 34 -- Und 22

In PPP's last survey, Burr ranged from 41-43 percent against these same opponents. His approval rating is now 36 percent, down from 38.

The survey of 683 voters was conducted October 2-4, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percent.

Posted by Mike Memoli at 11:20 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) continues to lead potential Democratic challengers despite his perpetual sub-40% approval rating, a new PPP survey finds (Sept. 2-8, 600 RV, MoE +/- 4%).

Democrats the survey matched up against Burr in hypothetical general election races include: former state senator Cal Cunningham, U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge, Chapel Hill Mayor Kevin Foy, attorney Kenneth Lewis, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (who filed her candidacy paperwork Wednesday) and former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker.

Burr 42 - Cunningham 30 - Und 29
Burr 41 - Etheridge 34 - Und 25
Burr 43 - Foy 29 - Und 29
Burr 43 - Lewis 27 - Und 29
Burr 42 - Marshall 31 - Und 27
Burr 42 - Wicker 31 - Und 27

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 11:25 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Despite favorability ratings still hovering in the 30s, North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr (R) leads four Democratic challengers in his bid for re-election to a second term, according to a new survey from the Dem-leaning Public Policy Polling. Burr leads Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, state Sen. Cal Cunningham, lawyer Kenneth Lewis and Chapel Hill Mayor Kevin Foy.

Burr wins 43% against all four candidates -- identical to the 43% former senator Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.) won against Kay Hagan (D) in August 2007. Hagan, of course, went on to defeat Dole in the 2008 general election.

Burr 43 - Marshall 35 - Und 26
Burr 43 - Cunningham 28 - Und 29
Burr 43 - Lewis 27 - Und 30
Burr 43 - Foy 27 - Und 30

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 11:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

While no Democrat has actually stepped forward with a serious challenge to Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), that doesn't mean the generic Democratic candidate doesn't lead the first-term senator in polling. A new survey from Public Policy Polling (June 12-14, 784 RV, MoE +/- 3.5%) finds Burr trailing an unnamed "Democratic Opponent" 41%-38%.

Just 64% of those who said they were conservative and 49% of Republicans said they would back Burr over a generic Democrat.

Attorney General Roy Cooper and Rep. Heath Shuler were once the leading Democratic contenters to take on Burr, but both have taken their hats out of the ring (Shuler twice), leaving Democrats with what looks like a vulnerable incumbent to challenge but with no challenger to do it.

In the survey, 29% said Burr deserves a second term in office, while 49% said it's time to give someone else a chance. Just 34% approve of the job Burr's doing in the Senate, compared to 35% who disapprove and 31% not sure.

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 01:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

The Henderson Times-News reports that Rep. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.) flatly ruled out challenging Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) in 2010 during a local event this morning. From the News-Times:

"I am not running for Senate," the second-term Democrat said after a ground-breaking ceremony for a new building at the Bent Creek Experimental Forest Station in Asheville. "I am not running for Senate. I am not running for Senate. I have said that a thousand times, and I don't know why they keep coming up (with the idea). Of course they keep coming up and running polls.

As Kyle reported last week, Shuler had said earlier this year he wouldn't run, but state and national Democrats were still hoping to change his mind. Burr keeps finding himself listed among vulnerable GOP incumbents, but so far no top Democrat has been recruited.

Posted by Mike Memoli at 12:54 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Check out my piece today on the Senate race in North Carolina, where Sen. Richard Burr (R) awaits a Democratic challenger. Polls and the current landscape within the state indicate Burr is vulnerable, but no Dems have stepped up as of yet.

By any number of metrics, North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr could be the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the country. His once Republican-leaning state looks rather blue after the 2008 elections, and recent polls show Burr anything but safe.

Still, Burr is likeable -- nothing like his distant relative, Vice President Aaron Burr -- and he lacks the kind of issues that doomed former senator Elizabeth Dole's re-election bid last year. Perhaps most important to the first-term senator's survival prospects, though, is that no top-tier Democrat has stepped forward to challenge him.

You can read the rest here.

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 02:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink

A new Public Policy Polling survey shows that Sen. Richard Burr's (R-N.C.) fortunes have not improved much, and that early in the cycle, he could be vulnerable to a strong Democratic challenger.

Burr's approval rating held steady at 35 percent in the survey, with 31 percent disapproving (down 1 point from 32 percent in a March survey). This month's poll also tested two potential Democratic challengers: Attorney General Roy Cooper (D), who has a fav/unfav rating of 41/20, and Rep. Mike McIntyre (23/21).

A March survey showed Burr leading 42-38% over a generic Democratic candidate. Here's how Burr fared against these Democrats:

General Election Matchups
Cooper 41
Burr 37
Undecided 22

Burr 39
McIntyre 34
Undecided 27

Burr fails to reach the critical 50% threshold for incumbents even against McIntyre, a 7-term Congressman representing the southern part of the state. Democrats are hoping to recruit Cooper, who was elected for a third time to the statewide office last fall.

Former Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) showed similarly weak numbers throughout her final years in office, but high profile Democrats passed on the race. But the little-known state Sen. Kay Hagan (D) was able to mount a strong challenge, and easily defeated Dole in 2008 in a state that Barack Obama also carried.

The PPP survey was conducted April 8-11, and had a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.

Posted by Mike Memoli at 11:55 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Facing a re-election campaign in 2010, Sen. Richard Burr's (R-N.C.) approval rating has dropped to 35%, with 32% disapproving and 33% not sure, according to a new PPP survey (March 12-15, 1000 RV, MoE +/- 3.1%).

The polling firm notes that Burr's numbers are worse than former Sen. Elizabeth Dole's (R-N.C.) at this point in her re-election campaign two years ago. Dole went on to lose to Democrat Kay Hagan by 9 points.

These poor numbers come as Democrats search for a candidate to challenge Burr. In this poll, PPP tested Sec. of State Elaine Marshall (D), who finished third in the 2002 Senate Democratic primary. Despite holding statewide office for years, more than 50% of respondents said they had no opinion of her.

Burr (R) 43
Marshall (D) 35
Und 22

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 01:50 PM | Email Author | Permalink

A Civitas Institute poll, conducted 10/27-29 by TelOpinion Research, surveyed 600 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Senator Elizabeth Dole, Democratic state Senator Kay Hagan and Libertarian Christopher Cole were tested.

(All / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Hagan......45 / 69 / 12 / 44 (+1 from last, 10/20)
Dole.......43 / 19 / 78 / 41 (+2)
Cole....... 5 / 3 / 5 / 8 (+1)

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll surveyed 937 registered voters 10/23-28 for a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. Subsample of 667 likely voters, margin of error +/- 3.8%.

(RVs / LVs)
Hagan......48 / 53
Dole.......47 / 44

An Allstate/National Journal poll conducted by Financial Dynamics surveyed 402 registered voters for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

Hagan......43
Dole.......37

No polls have been taken since Dole launched her ad implying Hagan is an atheist, but the Democrat has led in every poll we've seen since the middle of September. Even Republicans watching the race think Dole is finished.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 03:15 PM | Email Author | Permalink

An AP/GfK poll surveyed 601 likely voters 10/22-26 for a margin of error of +/- 4%. GOP Senator Elizabeth Dole, Democratic State Senator Kay Hagan and Libertarian Christopher Cole were tested in the Senate race. In the battle for governor, Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue, Republican Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory and Libertarian Michael Munger were tested.

General Election Matchup
Hagan.......47
Dole........43
Cole........ 2

Perdue......44
McCrory.....44
Munger...... 4

Dole has been attacking Hagan for participating in a fundraiser which two prominent atheists attended, and Hagan is pushing back hard. A case of much ado about nothing, or could this sink one candidate for her associations or the other one for overreaching?

Posted by Reid Wilson at 04:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Democrats are still looking good in the Tar Heel State, according to a new Civitas Institute poll, as the governor candidate pulls back into a tie with her GOP foe. The poll, conducted 10/18-20 by TelOpinion Research, surveyed 600 registered voters for a margin of error of +/- 4.2%. In the Senate race, Elizabeth Dole, Democrat Kay Hagan and Libertarian Chris Cole were tested, while Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue, Republican Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory and Libertarian Michael Munger were tested in the governor's race.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Hagan......44 / 70 / 11 / 39 (-1 from last, 10/8)
Dole.......41 / 17 / 76 / 36 (-1)
Cole....... 4 / 3 / 3 / 4 (+1)

McCrory....43 / 22 / 75 / 38 (no change)
Perdue.....43 / 69 / 10 / 38 (+2)
Munger..... 2 / 1 / 3 / 4 (no change)

Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state, and if Barack Obama drives seriously increased turnout, Dole and McCrory could have trouble surviving.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 05:15 PM | Email Author | Permalink

North Carolina has the potential to be a very bad state for Republicans come Election Day, but at least the party has a chance to steal a governor's mansion.

A DailyKos/Research 2000 poll conducted 10/14-15 surveyed 600 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Elizabeth Dole, a Republican, and Democrat Kay Hagan were tested in the Senate race, and Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory were tested in the governor's race.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Hagan....49 / 82 / 10 / 46 / 46 / 52 (+7 from last, 9/10)
Dole.....45 / 12 / 85 / 45 / 49 / 41 (-3)

Perdue...48 / 80 / 10 / 44 / 45 / 51 (+6)
McCrory..43 / 10 / 84 / 43 / 47 / 39 (-4)

Obama....46 / 76 / 8 / 47 / 42 / 50 (+8)
McCain...44 / 14 / 84 / 40 / 49 / 39 (-9)

Despite ads being run against her by conservative groups like the Chamber of Commerce and Freedom's Watch, Hagan's favorable rating is a very impressive 55% to 35% unfavorable. Dole hasn't led a poll for two weeks, and hasn't led a live-call poll for a month.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

If there's a state in which change will dominate, it's North Carolina. The incumbent party trails the three races atop the ballot, according to a new poll. The TelOpinion Research poll, conducted for the conservative-leaning Civitas Institute, surveyed 600 likely voters between 10/6-8 for a margin of error of +/- 4%.

Senator Elizabeth Dole, Democrat Kay Hagan and Libertarian Chris Cole were matched up in the Senate race, while Democratic Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue, GOP Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory and Libertarian Michael Munger were pitted against each other in the governor's race.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Hagan......45 / 68 / 15 / 44 / 44 / 46 (+4 from last, 9/20)
Dole.......42 / 17 / 77 / 41 / 43 / 41 (-2)
Cole....... 2 / 3 / 1 / 4 / 3 / 2 (-3)

McCrory....43 / 17 / 77 / 46 / 44 / 42 (no change)
Perdue.....41 / 64 / 13 / 32 / 41 / 41 (no change)
Munger.....-- / -- / -- / -- / -- / -- (-3)

The same poll shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by five points, 48%-43%. If you're an incumbent in North Carolina, you're in trouble.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

It may be the most polled state outside of Iowa and New Hampshire, but for the first time a poll has showed Republican Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory with a significant lead over Democratic Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue.

The poll, conducted by independent Research 2000 for DailyKos, surveyed 600 likely voters between 9/8-10 for a margin of error of +/- 4%. In the governor's race, Perdue and McCrory were tested, while in the Senate race, Republican Elizabeth Dole and Democratic state Senator Kay Hagan were tested. The sample was 44% Democratic, 35% Republican and 21% independent.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
McCrory....47 / 15 / 86 / 49 / 51 / 43
Perdue.....42 / 75 / 4 / 38 / 39 / 45

Dole.......48 / 18 / 87 / 46 / 53 / 43
Hagan......42 / 73 / 6 / 39 / 38 / 46

McCain.....55 / 23 / 91 / 62 / 59 / 51
Obama......38 / 69 / 4 / 31 / 34 / 42

The results aren't out of line with other polls, which have all showed close Senate and governor's races. But if accurate, the DailyKos poll shows a serious shift in recent weeks toward the GOP. Independents are breaking to Republicans across the board, and the Democratic base has either not come home yet or is seriously fractured.

Add Research 2000 to a mix that includes the Civitas Institute, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and pollsters for both campaigns, as well as dial-response pollsters Public Policy Polling, SurveyUSA and Rasmussen, all of whom have conducted surveys in North Carolina in the last month. If you're a Tarheel voter, you may have a better chance of answering a poll than residents of any other state. (Side note: Expect a new Civitas poll within days.)

Posted by Reid Wilson at 02:15 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Democratic hopes of winning big in North Carolina are more than a pipe dream, a new poll for Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue shows. All three races at the top of the ticket remain close, according to the survey.

The poll, conducted for Perdue's campaign by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, surveyed 605 likely voters between 9/5-7. In the governor's race, Perdue and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, the Republican nominee, were tested. For Senate, incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole was matched up against State Senator Kay Hagan. The sample included 46% self-identified Democrats, 35% self-identified Republicans and 19% independent or other party voters.

General Election Matchups
Perdue.........46
McCrory........40

Dole...........48
Hagan..........46

McCain.........49
Obama..........46

In the survey memo, Fred Yang, one of the most respected North Carolina pollsters in Democratic politics, writes that Republicans are actually oversampled. Party registration figures with the Secretary of State's office show 45.3% of voters are registered Democrats, 32.7% are registered Republicans and the remaining 22% are affiliated with neither major party.

Republicans may point out that a poll conducted for a Democrat will be biased in favor of that candidate, but the numbers reflect others that show neck-and-neck contests. Democratic groups have spent more money advertising on behalf of Perdue and Hagan than Republican groups have on behalf of their candidates, contributing to those tight races.

An interesting side note: Perdue, a long-time presence in state politics, will be on the ballot as "Bev Perdue," using the shortened version of her first name. As far as we can tell, Yang is the only pollster to have tested her that way instead of as "Beverly."

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

North Carolina Senator Elizabeth Dole trails her opponent in a new Democracy Corps poll, highlighting the Republican's vulnerability in November. Still, Dole's campaign will point out that the survey was conducted by a Democratic firm. The poll also found the state's governor's race is a tie, giving Republicans hope of picking up at least one executive mansion in November.

The survey, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, a Washington-based firm, polled 852 likely voters between 8/20-26 for a margin of error of +/- 3.4% (The sample's partisan breakdown: 40% Democratic, 33% Republican, 27% independent and others). Dole and State Senator Kay Hagan were tested, along with Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, the Democratic and Republican candidates for governor, respectively.

General Election Matchup (With leaners)
Hagan...........50
Dole............45

Perdue..........46
McCrory.........46

McCain..........47
Obama...........44

Generic Dem.....49
Generic GOP.....43

The numbers in the governor's race show what most other surveys agree upon -- a tight race in which the candidates are within a point or two of each other. The presidential matchup also tracks closely with most polls; the latest RCP North Carolina Average shows McCain leading by 4.2 points.

The Senate race has been less stable, with some polls showing Dole with a big lead, particularly after she ran an initial series of advertisements, and others with Hagan running close if not even.

Dole has plenty of opportunities to make the race as close as the governor's race. After respondents were read an informed ballot highlighting each candidate's positives and negatives, the two tied at 47% each.

Still, Dole's job approval ratings are 38% approve to 39% disapprove, meaning the Republican will have to use her sizable war chest to bolster he own image. Hagan will continue to try and tie Dole to the unpopular President Bush, whose approval ratings are a dismal 38% approve to 57% disapprove.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Senator Elizabeth Dole is in a tight race for re-election, a new survey shows, as new advertisements hitting the first-term Republican and praising her Democratic rival collaborate to reduce Dole's once-sizeable lead.

The poll, conducted by TelOpinion Research for the North Carolina-based Civitas Institute, surveyed 600 likely voters between 8/14-17 for a margin of error of +/- 4.2%. Dole, Democratic State Senator Kay Hagan and Libertarian Chris Cole were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Dole........44 / 15 / 80 / 47 / 43 / 44 (-3 from last, 7/16)
Hagan.....41 / 67 / 10 / 37 / 42 / 41 (+3)
Cole..........4 / 3 / 3 / 8 / 6 / 3 (+2)

Dole has a big lead among voters in both Western and Eastern Carolina, regions where she leads by nearly twenty points, while Hagan keeps the race close with a massive 61%-28% lead in the Research Triangle. Hagan has not made serious inroads among independent voters in the last few months, but she's consolidated her Democratic base enough to make the race close.

The race has narrowed thanks in part to advertisements run by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which has slammed Dole as an ineffective Senator who votes with President Bush too often, and thanks to Hagan's own first ads of the general election, which hit the air two days before the poll went in the field. Earlier Civitas polls had shown significant movement after Dole started running her first ads, back in June.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 02:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

A new poll shows North Carolina Senator Elizabeth Dole retaining a solid lead over her Democratic rival, but it's not a done deal by any means. And a first round of advertisements from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee could cut into that lead.

The poll, conducted by Research 2000 on behalf of DailyKos, surveyed 600 likely voters between 7/28-30 for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Dole and State Senator Kay Hagan, the Democratic nominee, were tested among a survey made up of 44% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 20% independents and others.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom / R-D / Cha / W-S)
Dole.......50 / 18 / 89 / 50 / 54 / 46 / 46 / 49 / 53 (+2 from last, 4/30)
Hagan....42 / 71 / 8 / 39 / 39 / 45 / 47 / 40 / 38 (+1)

McCain...47 / 16 / 85 / 47 / 52 / 42 / 42 / 51 / 52
Obama...43 / 77 / 6 / 35 / 39 / 47 / 48 / 38 / 38

(Geographic note: "R-D" is the Raleigh-Durham area; "Cha" is the Charlotte region; and "W-S" is Winston-Salem and surrounding areas)

The overriding lesson: Democrats need to consolidate their base and win over more independent voters, as close to twice as many voters from their base are backing the Republican candidates. Hagan is a popular challenger, with a 51% favorable rating and a 32% unfavorable, which compares positively to Dole's 53% favorable and 38% unfavorable.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 04:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

A new poll conducted for the conservative-leaning Civitas Institute in North Carolina shows Tar Heels will be treated to two good races this year. In the governor's race, the state features one of a very few around the country that look destined to be competitive, while Senator Elizabeth Dole continues to maintain a lead in her bid for re-election.

The survey, conducted for Civitas by the Republican firm Tel Opinion Research, polled 600 registered voters between 7/14-16 for a margin of error of +/- 4%. In the governor's race, Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue, the Democratic nominee, Republican Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory and college professor Mike Munger, the Libertarian, were tested. For Senate, the poll tested Dole, State Senator Kay Hagan, her Democratic opponent, and Libertarian Chris Cole.

General Election Matchups
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom / Cha / Wes / P-T / Tri / NoE / SoE)
Perdue......43 / 64 / 16 / 41 / 41 / 45 / 23 / 37 / 48 / 48 / 62 / 50
McCrory....40 / 18 / 75 / 28 / 42 / 39 / 66 / 41 / 36 / 33 / 27 / 30
Munger.......2 / 2 / -- / 6 / 3 / 1 / 2 / 1 / 3 / 2 / 1 / 1

Dole...........47 / 24 / 79 / 41 / 49 / 45 / 57 / 44 / 42 / 42 / 47 / 45
Hagan........38 / 60 / 11 / 32 / 36 / 39 / 28 / 39 / 40 / 44 / 39 / 37
Cole.............2 / 1 / 2 / 6 / 4 / 1 / 2 / 2 / 3 / 2 / 4 / --

(Geographic notes: "Cha" is Charlotte. "Wes" is the Western region of the state. "P-T" is the Piedmont Triad. "Tri" is the Research Triangle. "NoE" is the Northeast. "SoE" is the Southeast.)

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has for months talked up the prospects of a close race in North Carolina, where State Senator Kay Hagan is running against first term Republican Elizabeth Dole. Now, the committee is putting its money where its mouth is, reserving around $5 million in advertising time in the state, according to the Raleigh News & Observer.

That's a substantial sum in a state that didn't initially look like it would be competitive. Still, a new poll for Dole's campaign shows the incumbent leading by a wide margin, indicating Hagan may need the DSCC's help to pull back near even. The survey, conducted by The Tarrance Group, polled 550 likely voters between 7/7-9 for a margin of error of +/- 4.2%. Dole, Hagan and postal worker Christopher Cole, a Libertarian, were tested.

General Election Matchup
Dole................51
Hagan.............36
Cole..................6

Early polls showed the race much closer than the current 15-point gap, but Dole's advertising blitz in the past month looks like it paid off. After a series of advertisements Dole ran highlighting her work on immigration, the incumbent's lead ballooned from one within the margin of error to the current double-digit head start.

But Hagan had a strong fundraising quarter, and that's helped her seriously narrow the once-overwhelming cash advantage Dole had. Having raised $1.69 million from the end of the pre-primary period, on April 17, through the end of June, Dole spent $2.1 million and ended the quarter with $2.7 million on hand. Hagan raised $1.53 million in the same period and ended with $1.2 million in the bank.

The DSCC enjoys a substantial fundraising advantage over its Republican counterpart, though it's not as big a disparity as the two House committees. At the end of May, Democrats had a little less than a two-to-one advantage, with $38.5 million in the bank compared with $21.5 million for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. If Dole is in any further trouble, Republicans will be able to step in, but they'd certainly want to save their money for elsewhere.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 03:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Early advertising can be effective, and North Carolina Senator Elizabeth Dole has flexed her financial muscle in recent weeks to build a bigger lead in what had looked like a surprisingly close fight for re-election. A new poll shows Dole with a much bigger lead over her Democratic opponent, and running ahead in virtually every region in the state.

The survey, conducted 6/11-13 by Tel Opinion Research on behalf of the Civitas Institute, polled 600 registered voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Dole, State Senator Kay Hagan and Libertarian candidate Chris Cole were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Dole.......48 / 25 / 83 / 38 / 51 / 45 (+3)
Hagan....38 / 61 / 7 / 38 / 33 / 41 (-5)
Cole..........1 / 1 / 0 / 3 / 1 / 1

Dole's lead is healthy in every region of the state except for the heavily Democratic Research Triangle region, where Hagan has a five-point lead, and in Hagan's home region, known as the Triad. Dole has also improved her standing among independent voters; the two are tied now, but last month's Civitas poll showed her trailing Hagan by twelve points.

Too, the Senator's choice to focus early advertising dollars on advertisements highlighting her work on curbing illegal immigration has paid off heavily. Among those who care most about illegal immigration, Dole boasts a 63%-20% lead over Hagan. Voters who say taxes and highway construction leads their priority list back Dole by wide margins as well. Those who care about the economy, the top issue in the poll, favor Hagan by a ten-point margin.

Dole is doing something about that deficit among voters who say the economy is the top issue. Last week, the campaign released a second advertisement focusing on her work on the economy, featuring testimonials from Tar Heels.

Hagan has raised eyebrows recently in Washington and North Carolina with strong fundraising performances and a series of polls before this one that show the Democrat running close to the incumbent Republican. Last week, she held a fundraiser with Democratic Senators Claire McCaskill, of Missouri, and Jon Tester, of Montana. Both candidates are expected to turn in big money numbers at the end of this quarter.

The latest RCP North Carolina Senate Average shows Dole leading by 7.5 points.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

A new survey conducted for North Carolina State Senator Kay Hagan seems to confirm what is becoming a growing consensus in Washington: First-term incumbent Elizabeth Dole, despite sky-high name recognition and reasonably high favorable ratings, will face a difficult run for re-election this year, though she remains the favorite.

The poll, conducted by Anzalone Liszt Research, surveyed 800 likely voters from 5/14-21, beginning a week after Hagan won the Democratic primary, for a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. Dole and Hagan were tested.

General Election Matchup
Dole............48
Hagan.........44

Most polls aren't conducted over a span of eight days, but then again, most internal polls don't include 800 likely voters, either. And lest either campaign complain, John Anzalone and Jeff Liszt have earned their chops this year, having polled for winning Democratic candidates in special elections in Mississippi and Louisiana. How close are they on this poll? It would fit near the most recent survey to come out of the state and nails the latest RCP North Carolina Senate Average, which shows Dole leading by exactly four points.

In a polling memo sent to the campaign, snippets of which Hagan's camp will release this morning, Anzalone and Liszt call Dole's support soft and wonder whether the Republican has any place to grow. "There are few voters who don't already know [Dole], making it difficult for her to expand her support," the pollsters write.

Dole has yet to release her internal figures, but the senator's campaign released an advertisement last week focusing on her efforts to craft immigration reform legislation and her work with sheriffs from around the state. That advertisement, some North Carolina political watchers say, is less about Dole's efforts on immigration than about Dole's presence throughout the Tar Heel State.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

After winning the Democratic primary by an easy margin earlier this month, North Carolina State Senator Kay Hagan has enjoyed a few weeks of increased attention from national observers. A new poll from a conservative-leaning North Carolina-based think tank shows that new attention could be merited, as many begin to anticipate a close re-election race for incumbent Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole.

The poll, conducted for the Civitas Institute by Tel Opinion Research, a Republican firm based in Virginia, surveyed 800 likely voters between 5/14-17 for a margin of error of +/- 3%. Dole and Hagan were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Dole......45 / 23 / 78 / 35 / 48 / 42
Hagan...43 / 65 / 13 / 47 / 37 / 49

Both candidates have room to grow among their own base, but Dole has significant ground to make up among independent voters. Hagan, too, could benefit from Barack Obama at the top of the Democratic ticket; while the Illinois Senator is unlikely to win the Tar Heel State, he could boost African American turnout, a group that backs Hagan by a huge margin, according to the poll.

This isn't the first poll showing a close race. A late April poll showed Hagan down just seven points, while one automated dial poll had the Democrat leading by a single point. Dole, though, has a long way to go before national Republicans need to start panicking. Just a few weeks before the primary, Dole held a commanding ten-to-one financial lead over Hagan, with $3.16 million on hand compared with Hagan's $317,000.

Dole has started using her financial advantage early. The campaign released a positive advertisement touting Dole's work on immigration in cities around the state. The spot, which features town and county sheriffs praising Dole's efforts to find and deport illegal immigrants, serves another purpose as well. Hagan's campaign has already signaled that they will criticize the incumbent for being out of state too much, but Dole "went all over North Carolina," says one sheriff in the ad.

While immigration may not be the number one priority of North Carolina voters, using the geography shows Dole's team is working to build an impression that the senator is always in town. "On one level, the Dole ad is not about immigration at all," said one Washington Republican with extensive experience in North Carolina. The subtle message: From Beaufort to Raefort, Greensboro, Hendersonville, Lexington, Mocksville and Salisbury, Dole has spent significant time in the state.

Polls continue to show a close race, and that will likely fuel strong fundraising performances for both candidates in the months to come. But while Dole remains a favorite ahead of November, the contest will be one to keep an eye on.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

State Senator Kay Hagan easily bested her primary opponents last night in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, taking 60% of the vote to just 18% for her closest rival, developer Jim Neal. Hagan will now face what could be a monumental struggle to unseat first-term incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole in November.

Hagan was not the initial choice of Washington Democrats, who pursued outgoing Governor Mike Easley and several other potential candidates before coalescing around her. But during her time on the trail, Hagan has showed a prolific fundraising ability, raking in a whopping $1.5 million so far. She spent most of that during the primary season, reporting just $317,000 on hand as of the middle of April, but her ability to raise money should keep her at least competitive with Dole.

But Dole has advantages of her own. With $3.15 million in the bank, she starts the general election contest with a huge head start, and Dole is virtually universally known throughout the state. Polls have showed most voters have a favorable opinion of her and say she's doing a good job in office, making Hagan's task that much more difficult.

National Democrats, replete with money to spend on Senate races, might wade in to North Carolina if they see encouraging poll numbers. If Democrats are to have a chance to win a huge Senate majority, they will need to do so on the backs of states like North Carolina, where second-tier contests will be a serious challenge. Dole remains a heavy favorite at the moment, but she will have to pay attention to her state's political winds to make sure she stays that way.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

On a day when Mark Warner declares his candidacy for a Senate seat in Virginia that appears to be his for the taking, one might recall Senator Jim Webb's upset of incumbent Republican George Allen as the biggest surprise in 2006. This year, if Democrats are to achieve any measure of massive majority in the Senate, they will need at least one more Jim Webb to come along and upset someone thought to be an entrenched incumbent.

Two new surveys in North Carolina show that the state may be this year's answer to Virginia in 2006, especially given what is likely to be a blowout in the Democratic primary. The first, a Mason-Dixon poll, surveyed 400 likely Democratic primary voters between 4/28-29 on behalf of WRAL-TV, for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Hagan, investment banker Jim Neal, attorney Marcus Williams, truck driver Duskin Lassiter and Howard Staley, a doctor, were tested.

Primary Election Matchup
(All / Men / Wom)
Hagan 42 / 34 / 48
Neal 17 / 21 / 14
Williams 5 / 5 / 5
Lassiter 2 / 2 / 2
Staley 1 / 2 / --

Initially, Hagan and Neal were polling neck and neck, but after a blitz of television advertising and stronger than expected fundraising numbers, Hagan has pulled out to a big lead. If Hagan pulls off a big win in tomorrow's primary election, it could give her a boost as she begins to target incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole.

A Dole-Hagan matchup could prove a close contest, as a new poll from Research 2000 suggests. The survey, taken 4/28-30 on behalf of DailyKos, tested 600 likely general election voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Hagan, Neal and Dole were tested.

General Election Matchups
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Dole 48 / 15 / 87 / 47 / 52 / 44 (+2 from last, 12/07)
Hagan 41 / 70 / 8 / 39 / 38 / 44 (+2)

Dole 49 / 16 / 87 / 49 / 53 / 45 (+2)
Neal 39 / 67 / 8 / 38 / 36 / 42

In a general election match, Hagan would start as a distinct underdog. Through the April 16 filing deadline (later because the state's primaries are so close to the end of the quarter), Hagan had just $317,000 in the bank, a tenth of Dole's $3.15 million. And in a state John McCain is likely to carry no matter the Democratic presidential nominee, convincing down-ballot voter to split their tickets could be difficult.

But Hagan has raised an impressive $1.52 million, much of which she has spent on making the primary with Neal a blowout. And trailing by just seven points in public polls is on par with Webb and others from the 2006 cycle; a Democratic poll taken in late June, 2006, showed Webb trailing Allen by a 46%-39% margin, and a Mason-Dixon poll in late July had Allen leading by a whopping 16 points. And Hagan's campaign brags that only Missouri's Claire McCaskill and Ohio's Sherrod Brown have raised more money through the First Quarter of 2006.

Beating Dole, a well-known incumbent, will be difficult. But Hagan starts out with relatively high name recognition -- 44% view her favorably, while just 25% view her unfavorably and 31% have no opinion. Dole has the same 44% favorable rating, though 41% say they view her unfavorably, which could be a problem for the incumbent down the line. Barring any mistakes, Dole will remain the favorite heading into the fall. At the moment, though, Hagan looks poised to capitalize on any slip up, and there's a long way to go before November.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Two Democrats, up with their first advertisements of the year, are showing that challengers can still run against Washington, D.C., even when their party controls Congress. The candidates, Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley and North Carolina State Senator Kay Hagan, launched both ads this week in advance of their respective primaries on May 20 and May 6.

"Tired of his party's inaction, Jeff Merkley led Democrats back to power," Merkley's 30-second ad begins. In the state Senate, Hagan's ad claims, she "brought change," "but now, Washington is broken and needs the kind of change Kay represents." The lines in each ad show what comes of a Congressional approval rating in the low twenties, according to the latest RCP Congressional Average.

Both Democrats are the national party's favored choice to take on Republican incumbents Gordon Smith, in Oregon, and Elizabeth Dole, in North Carolina. And while some Republicans suggest Congress' poor approval rating could hurt Democrats in November, the new congressional majority still enjoys a big generic ballot lead in recent polls. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll out earlier this month shows voters prefer a Democratic-led Congress by a 49% to 35% margin over a GOP-controlled legislature, and Democrats lead by 10.4% in the latest RCP Generic Ballot Average.

"The common refrain we hear from people all across the state is that they feel as though Washington has forgotten about them," Hagan communications director Colleen Flanagan told Politics Nation. "Kay has a proven record that shows she's been working for North Carolinians for years." Republicans in challenger races around the country have also made attacking Washington a priority, and it looks like neither party is going to give the nation's capitol a break.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

EMILY's List, an outspoken and powerful group that backs women candidates running as pro-choice Democrats, has waded in to two more primaries in recent days, bolstering a front-runner and an underdog in North Carolina and Virginia. Whether the organization will do harm or good in at least one of those contests, though, is still up in the air.

The group, whose endorsement comes with access to a wealthy and vast fundraising list, is backing former Rep. Leslie Byrne, a Democrat running to replace retiring Virginia Republican Tom Davis, and North Carolina State Senator Kay Hagan, who is running for the right to face Senator Elizabeth Dole in November.

In the Tar Heel State, the endorsement was bestowed upon the leading Democratic candidate. Hagan faces investment banker Jim Neal in the May 6 primary, and with an electoral base and impressive early fundraising, looks to be the likely nominee. Through the end of the year, Hagan had $515,000 in the bank, about three times what Neal had stored up. Both candidates trail Dole by a wide margin; she had almost $2.7 million on hand through December.

It's not the first race EMILY's List is involved with in North Carolina. Earlier, the group announced its backing of Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue, in what has become a contentious Democratic primary for governor with State Treasurer Richard Moore.

While Hagan may be a safe choice for the group, the decision to back Byrne in Virginia will be more contentious. The Eleventh District, which Davis has represented since 1994, is one of the most narrowly split districts in the country, giving President Bush just a 2,000 vote win in 2004. Based in rapidly-expanding Northern Virginia, the area is ripe for a Democratic takeover, especially considering the recent strong performance of state Democrats.

But many believe Byrne isn't the candidate for the job. Nominated for Lieutenant Governor in 2005, she lost to Republican Bill Bolling even as Democrat Tim Kaine took the top job, largely on the strength of impressive vote totals in the Washington suburbs and exurbs. Local Democrats have better feelings toward Fairfax County Council chairman Gerry Connolly, though Byrne's name recognition and base -- she was the incumbent Democrat Davis beat in 1994 -- make her a tough competitor in the primary.

EMILY's List's role in the race became more evident this week when the group paid for part of a mailing slamming Connolly for "bullying" tactics on the supervisors' board, the Washington Post reported today, and for hiding relationships with organizations that eventually got contracts with the county. Byrne's campaign paid for the rest of the mailing.

Connolly, who released a poll recently showing him with a two-to-one lead over Byrne, hit back hard, accusing his rival of "swift boating" fellow Democrat Mark Warner during the 1996 Senate race and implied the future governor and now-Senate candidate was a racist.

The scrum is one of the first major blow-ups in a race that isn't expected to get any nicer. The winner of the June primary will face off with businessman Keith Fimian, for whom Davis cleared the GOP field. While the Democratic primary may be ugly, the party is favored to pick up the seat, as Politico's Josh Kraushaar wrote in his extensive look at the district this week.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

DailyKos continues their baseline poll series with a new look at Senator Elizabeth Dole's chances at re-election. The survey shows the once-embattled former NRSC chair in pretty good shape leading up to a potential second term.

The Research 2000 poll, taken between 12/16-18, sampled 600 likely voters. Dole, State Sen. Kay Hagan and banker Jim Neal were tested. The sample was made up of 42% Democrats, 38% Republicans and 20% independent and other voters.

General Election Matchups
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Dole 46 / 13 / 85 / 41 / 49 / 43
Hagan 39 / 67 / 7 / 38 / 36 / 42

Dole 47 / 14 / 85 / 44 / 49 / 45
Neal 37 / 64 / 7 / 37 / 36 / 38

Dole's favorable rating is not the best it could be -- just 46% view her favorably while 38% have an unfavorable view. And as Democrats are made more aware of her opponents and back them at rates higher than the mid-60% level, the race will likely close. Still, Dole will be well-funded, and her lead among independents is good news.

Both Neal and Hagan are little known. About 40% of respondents have never heard of them, while just 16% have no opinion of Dole. Each has a long way to go to toppling an incumbent, but as the poll demonstrates, their tasks are difficult but not impossible.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 03:10 PM | Email Author | Permalink

After a disastrous term at the helm of the National Republican Senatorial Committee in 2006, after months of headlines questioning her retirement plans and months of giddy Democrats pointing to her sinking approval rating, Sen. Elizabeth Dole looked like she might face a tough race for re-election next year. Now, after several top-tier Democrats took their names out of contention, Dole will face either investment banker Jim Neal or State Sen. Kay Hagan.

Hagan took her own name out of contention three weeks ago but has changed her mind, the AP reports today. Hagan's entry comes a week after Neal said publicly that he is gay, though she said his sexual orientation had nothing to do with her candidacy.

Even without a Democratic primary to drain the eventual nominee's bank accounts, Dole is in much better shape now than she's looked for several years. Having stockpiled over $2.3 million through the end of the third quarter, even her approval rating is climbing steadily. A poll conducted in late September by Elon University showed 50% of North Carolinians approving of her job performance, while just 25% disapproved. A Voter/Consumer Research poll, conducted for Dole, showed her job approval at 64% in mid-September, up three points from a June survey.

The fact that Dole has conducted two polls in the past few months shows that she won't take 2008 lightly. That can be good news for Republicans: The senator is unlikely to be surprised by any Democratic challenger. Democrats with a glass-half-full attitude can find good news, too: With Dole focusing on her own race, she will have less time to stump and fundraise for other candidates.

Neither Neal nor Hagan has filed with the FEC, and with a $2 million gap to make up, it is Dole's opponents, rather than the senator herself, who face a mountain the size of Kilimanjaro.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink