After weeks of bad news for Al Franken, even other state Republican Parties are getting into the act. Franken, who earlier this year agreed to a $25,000 fine for failing to cover workers' compensation insurance for his employees, has also been stung in recent days by an acknowledgment that he owes up to $70,000 in back taxes in several states in which he performed.

In a letter to the South Carolina Department of Revenue, Palmetto State GOP chairman Katon Dawson last week asked director Ray Stevens to make sure their state received full payment from Franken's company, Alan Franken Inc., which received payment for services there.

"South Carolina faces an uncertain economic environment," Dawson wrote. "It is incumbent upon us to ensure that every individual and corporation lives up to its obligations to report its income, and pay its fair share of taxes." In the letter, Dawson requests a full review of the company's activities in South Carolina since its inception in 1991.

"I don't think people are going to believe Al Franken's good enough or smart enough to be a U.S. Senator because, doggone it, he doesn't pay his taxes," Dawson told Politics Nation. "But I have a punch line for the Democrats' star comedian-turned-candidate: show some personal responsibility and pay your fair share."

Franken last week said the blunder came when his company's accountant overpaid taxes in New York and Minnesota, where the comedian and satirist has lived, instead of paying taxes to the states in which Franken performed and was paid. Still, if even other Republican Party chairmen are having fun with Franken's lax accountant, one can bet the Minnesota Republican Party won't let the issue go so easily.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

After building his name recognition, campaign war chest and overall credibility and all but securing the Democratic nomination for Senate in Minnesota, satirist Al Franken has stumbled in recent weeks as repeated revelations about his business dealings have made for splashy headlines. Now, Franken has paid $70,000 in back taxes and fines in 17 states where he earned money in recent years, the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reported today.

Franken blamed his accountant, with whom he has done business for eighteen years, of making fundamental errors that caused the oversights. Those oversights led to overpayments in Franken's two home states, Minnesota and New York, and non-payment in the more than a dozen other states where Franken earned money, usually through appearance and speaking fees. Franken maintained that, after the overpayment, he owed just $4,000 more in taxes, according to an early estimation by his new financial handlers.

The disclosure comes a month and a half after Franken's company, Alan Franken Inc., was charged a $25,000 penalty by the New York State Workers' Compensation Board for not buying workers' comp insurance, as the Star-Tribune reported in mid-March. After an internal investigation, Franken admitted the mistake and paid the fine.

Franken's candidacy was initially greeted with some skepticism from Minnesota Democrats, who wondered whether putting a comedian with a long history of raunchy jokes up against a sitting Senator was a good idea. But Franken raised a significant amount of money, outpacing -- and outspending -- Republican Norm Coleman several quarters in a row. Recent polls have shown the race close, with Coleman leading but near the margin of error.

But Franken's follies could bring a renewed sense of angst to the state's Democrat-Farmer-Labor Party, which since Coleman's election in 2002 has been itching for the opportunity to oust the Republican from office. Coleman won election after the death of incumbent Senator Paul Wellstone, whom Coleman had been trailing in polls.

While Franken retains a good chance at knocking off Coleman -- Minnesota is one of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's top targets -- he has seen his poll numbers slip in recent weeks. A rebound of some sort sooner, rather than later, is hugely important to Franken. Too, his research team, which might have caught the mistake before it was discovered by Republicans and the media, might want to go back and take a look at their candidate's record one more time to avoid future missteps.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

In the increasingly bitter battle over a Senate seat both parties feel is rightfully theirs, Democrats and Republicans can each use a new poll as a platform to rake in more money for the two leading candidates. Polls in recent months have shown the fight between incumbent Republican Norm Coleman and his likely Democratic rival, comedian Al Franken, a razor-thin contest, and both have raised millions for the November showdown.

The survey, conducted for the Coalition for a Democratic Workplace by the Republican firm McLaughlin & Associates, was conducted 3/6-9 among 500 registered voters, for a margin of error of +/- 4.5%. Coleman and Franken were tested.

General Election Matchup
Coleman 46
Franken 40

In one of the last truly union-heavy states in the country (Franken actually hopes to represent the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party on the ballot), the difference could come from union households, depending on their turnout. Franken leads by nine points, 48%-39%, among voters living in a union households, while Coleman has a wider 12-point lead among those who live in non-union residences, 49%-37%.

Each camp's fundraising appeal will focus on how close the contest is likely to be, and on how personal the other side will make it. The poll has Franken within striking distance, as he has been for months, though Coleman retains a distinct advantage, both in the horse race and in money in the bank. Franken has outraised the incumbent several quarters in a row, and with fundraising numbers due in two weeks -- and likely to leak out sooner than that -- another Franken victory could start to worry national Republicans.

Coleman has worked hard to distance himself from President Bush and the Republican Party. But while the GOP convention, held in St. Paul, where Coleman served as mayor, will provide big fundraising opportunities for Coleman at the beginning of the final eight-week sprint to Election Day, is being associated with a national Republican Party whose brand name is in the dumps really what Coleman wants?

Franken still has to get through the June nominating convention, where he faces little competition after a top rival dropped out. Anticipating the challenge, Coleman used his announcement speech last week to light in to his likely Democratic foe, accusing him of being a divider. By the end of this race, though, it is likely that both candidates will be bloodied virtually beyond recognition.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:15 PM | Email Author | Permalink

First-term Republican Senator Norm Coleman will make his bid for re-election official today with rallies at campaign offices in St. Paul, the city he once served as Mayor, the Associated Press reports this morning. Coleman, first elected Mayor as a Democrat before switching to the GOP and winning re-election, will face a stiff challenge from likely Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party nominee Al Franken, a comedian best known for his political satire on Saturday Night Live.

There are few Republicans Democrats would rather deprive of re-election than Coleman, who won his seat in 2002 after the death of Democratic Senator Paul Wellstone, just weeks before election day, in a plane crash. Wellstone's name was replaced on the ballot by former Vice President Walter Mondale, and Coleman prevailed by a 50%-47% margin. Now, the DSCC is training all its guns on the incumbent. "For six years, Norm Coleman has sided with special interests every time he should have been standing up for Minnesota, and voters aren't going to be fooled by his attempts at an election year makeover," DSCC spokesman Matt Miller told Politics Nation.

That wasn't the first time Coleman had faced a well-known opponent. In 1998, Coleman's rise to the top was halted by independent candidate Jesse Ventura, who beat the Republican and a lesser-known Democrat to win the governor's mansion. This time again, Coleman will face an opponent with high name identification, and he's prepared his attacks already, another Associated Press story reports.

In fact, with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee shining the spotlight his way, Coleman's goal this year will be to turn attention back to Franken's career of edgy, sometimes racy remarks. "If the partisan disease is what's tearing Washington apart, for years he was part of that," Coleman told the AP. "The talk radio culture, the Rush Limbaughs, the Ann Coulters, the Al Frankens. If that's the disease, I've tried to be the cure to that disease for a long time."

The NRSC is sounding the same theme. "Sen. Coleman provides Minnesota voters with a choice between a results-oriented statesman and an angry liberal comedian," communications director Rebecca Fisher said. "We are confident that there is no question in most voters' minds that Sen. Coleman will return to Washington in November."

National Democrats see Coleman as one of the most vulnerable incumbents of the cycle, and polls bear that analysis out. A January survey from the Humphrey Institute, conducted for Minnesota Public Radio, showed Franken leading Coleman by a narrow margin, while Coleman easily led other potential Democratic candidates. Franken, too, has outraised Coleman several quarters in a row, though the Democrat is spending money at a faster clip and remains significantly behind the incumbent in cash on hand.

Franken will benefit from the state's Democratic tilt, especially in a presidential election year and as the national Republican brand is suffering. No state has voted for more Democrats in a row than Minnesota, which last cast its electoral votes for a Republican in 1972. And last year, Democrats captured the state's First District, where Rep. Tim Walz surprised observers by knocking off Republican Gil Gutknecht. This year, national Democrats are excited about their chances in the state's Third District, where Republican Jim Ramstad is retiring.

The NRSC will likely spend heavily to protect Coleman, who with New Hampshire Senator John Sununu is seen as one of the party's most vulnerable incumbents. And Coleman will be aided by the Republican National Convention, which will be held in his city, and GOP hopes that it might actually pick up the state's electoral votes after President Bush lost the state by only two and three points in his two bids.

Franken still faces nominal opposition at the state party's convention in June, but the DFLer has already turned his fire on Coleman. With the incumbent and the challenger already attacking each other, and with both candidates having raised an astonishing $13.8 million combined through December, Minnesota's Senate contest will likely turn out to be one of the nastiest and most bitter of the entire cycle. Coleman, kicking off his re-election bid today, will waste no time wading hip-deep into the mud.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Comedian Al Franken took a step closer to becoming the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party's 2008 Senate nominee when wealthy attorney and 2000 Senate candidate Mike Ciresi dropped his candidacy Monday, The Hill's Aaron Blake reports. Ciresi, who had invested about $2.5 million into the race, was facing a third-place finish at the June 6-8 nominating convention.

Ciresi finished second in the 2000 race to one-term Senator Mark Dayton, though he had hit Franken for being unelectable. Franken now faces professor and liberal activist Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, whose organization had outpaced Ciresi's in recent weeks.

Despite charges that he may not be electable, Franken has been the only candidate to both outraise and out-poll incumbent Republican Norm Coleman. A late-January poll by the Humphrey Institute showed Franken leading Coleman by a narrow three-point margin. Franken has pulled in more money than Coleman over several quarters, though Coleman maintains a cash-on-hand lead.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

A new poll again shows Republicans just why they should not scoff at comedian Al Franken's bid for Senate against Minnesota incumbent Norm Coleman. In fact, even as Franken and attorney Mike Ciresi battle for a convention win, both Democrats fare pretty well against the freshman incumbent.

The poll, taken by SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV between 2/11-12, surveyed 650 registered voters and tested Coleman, Ciresi and Franken, along with professor Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer and businessman Darryl Stanton, two other Democrats.

General Election Matchup
Coleman 47 (-1 from last, 11/6/07)
Franken 46 (+2)

Coleman 51 (+2)
Ciresi 40 (-3)

Coleman 58 (+5)
Nelson-Pallmeyer 30 (-4)

Coleman 58
Stanton 29

Franken, who has outraised Coleman several times this year but trails in cash on hand, is still taking shots from Ciresi, his chief rival, for being unelectable, the Associated Press reported earlier this week. The candidates, running for nominations from Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party -- a name unique to the state -- will meet at a convention that runs June 6-8. Assuming the two leading candidates honor their commitments to drop out barring a win there, the party will avoid a September 9 primary.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Democrats searching for a strong candidate in Minnesota seemed initially skeptical that a comedian would make a good candidate. But a new poll, conducted for Minnesota Public Radio by the Humphrey Institute, shows former Saturday Night Live staple Al Franken might have a chance in his bid against first-term incumbent Norm Coleman.

The survey, conducted 1/20-27, tested the state's Senate race among 917 adults, for a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. Along with Coleman and Franken, attorney Mike Ciresi, Jim Cohen and Professor Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, all Democrats, were tested. Republicans might claim the sample was skewed by party registration. 52% of respondents said they were Democrats, while 34% said they were Republicans and just 14% identified themselves as independents.

General Election Matchups
Franken 43
Coleman 40

Coleman 43
Ciresi 38

Coleman 47
Nelson-Pallmeyer 29

Coleman 46
Cohen 31

Primary Election Matchup
(478 Dems only, margin +/- 4.5%)
Franken 42
Ciresi 18
Nelson-Pallmeyer 3
Cohen 2

Cross-tabs, only made available in the Franken-Coleman matchup, show Franken trailing by a single point among men while leading by seven among women. Coleman enjoys a 16-point lead among independents, though the Democratic base has yet to coalesce behind Franken, meaning his numbers will only go up. Franken has big leads among those who choose the economy, the war in Iraq or health care as the top issue facing the country.

But Franken still has to make it through either a party convention or a primary, and that process begins when Minnesotans go to caucus on Tuesday. If Franken supporters win races as delegates to the state convention -- regardless of which presidential candidate they support -- he can box out Ciresi. But Ciresi has run for office before, and he's got the backing of a good portion of the Democratic establishment.

Both candidates have promised to concede if they lose at the convention. But those promises have been made, and broken, before. Ciresi would benefit most from a convention win, as it will be difficult for him to overcome Franken's large lead in the name recognition primary. Still, it is likely the primary race will not conclude when the convention ends, and that no matter which candidate wins, the other will press on.

When Democrats get to a general election, they do have the chance to knock out Coleman. Just 50% of those surveyed said they somewhat or strongly approved of Coleman's job performance. Contrast that to the 66% who approve of freshman Senator Amy Klobuchar's job performance and Coleman looks like he might be in trouble.

Still, he will be well-funded. Through the fourth quarter, Coleman had more than $6 million in the bank. Franken has outraised him through several quarters, but Coleman's strong head start puts him well ahead of both the top Democratic candidates. Franken had $3.1 million in the bank through December, while Ciresi, who has given more than half a million dollars to his own campaign, held just under $1 million in reserve.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink

U.S. Senate candidate Al Franken has had a momentous couple of weeks, confirming the general assumption that Minnesota is a state to watch in November. Franken topped Republican Senator Norm Coleman in 4th-quarter fundraising, won a major endorsement, and also released his first two TV ads.

Franken announced last week that he raised $1.9 million during the last three months of 2007, eclipsing by $200,000 Coleman's announced 4th-quarter fundraising. Through the previous FEC filing deadline Franken had raised $5.2 million, almost entirely from individual contributions, compared to Coleman's $4.9 million.

Mike Ciresi, Franken's chief competition for the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party nomination, has yet to announce his 4th-quarter fundraising total; he raised just over $1 million through September 30. Ciresi, who is chairman of a large Minneapolis law firm, finished second in the 2000 DFL Senate primary to Mark Dayton, and considered a second run for the seat in 2006. His fundraising will likely need to pick up if he is to compete through the DFL state convention in June, when the party will endorse a candidate, though he can probably self-fund his campaign until then.

On Wednesday, Franken received the endorsment of Education Minnesota, the largest labor union in the state with roughly 70,000 members. The union is encouraging its members to attend the February 5 caucuses and become Franken delegates to the DFL convention. The union's statewide membership should also offer Franken a boost in the general election.

The two ads Franken released this week offer a glimpse into his campaign's early strategy: proving his Minnesota roots and his commitment to taking the job seriously, two areas of criticism where the "Saturday Night Live" alum is vulnerable. One ad shows Franken walking down a residential street in his hometown of St. Louis Park, Minn., the other features his fourth-grade teacher referring to him as "Allen." At the end of both ads, Franken states that he is "serious" about representing the state in Congress. Neither ad mentions Coleman or Ciresi.

Coleman's reelection bid was given cause for concern when Democrat Amy Klobuchar delivered a crushing 20-point defeat to Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy in the 2006 election for the open Senate seat. Also in 2006, Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty squeaked out a 1-point victory over Attorney General Mike Hatch thanks to embarrassing gaffes by Hatch and his running mate in the final days of the race.

Franken is already relatively well-known around the state, and it appears he will be able to fund a statewide race through November. If he wins the DFL endorsement in June, and if necessary the September primary, the forthcoming general election campaign with Coleman will likely be amongst the most competitive Senate races in the country this year - and certainly an entertaining one to watch.

--Kyle Trygstad

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 12:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

We're updating our Senate race rankings today, which we have failed to do since late September. If you take one lesson from the list, it's that Democrats are in even better position than they were a few months ago: More seats are open, more pickups are possible and the party is still outraising its Republican counterparts.

Still, watch the middle tier races: Sens. Norm Coleman (R-MN), Susan Collins (R-ME) and Gordon Smith (R-OR) are in trouble, but they seem with each passing day to be getting safer. All three are bucking Republican leadership at times, and while Democrats have good candidates against each, the difference between a bad year for the GOP and a terrible year will be the difference between these three surviving or failing.

Races we considered for the number 10 spot: Kentucky, where Democrats are hungry for the potential to knock off Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. McConnell has a lot of money, though, and in a presidential year, as Kentucky goes for the GOP nominee, it's hard to imagine any but the best candidate (Rep. Ben Chandler?) having so much as a snowball's chance of beating McConnell. Polls show Chandler and State Auditor Crit Luallen performing well against the incumbent, but both have said they won't run. South Dakota, where Sen. Tim Johnson is still recovering from a stroke, should be a good opportunity for Republicans. So far, though, they have only managed to recruit a State Representative who reported just $37,000 in the bank at the end of the third quarter, nowhere close to Johnson's $2 million account. Because of his health troubles, Johnson had been a retirement threat. But he announced his re-election bid in mid-October, and with an underfunded challenger, he will likely sail to another six year term in 2008.

(Correction: We wrote that State Representative Joel Dykstra had raised $37,000 in the third quarter. In fact, he raised $82,000 in the third quarter and retained $37,000 cash on hand. We regret the error and any resulting confusion.

Races we dropped from the Exchange: South Dakota, Nebraska.

Races we added to the Exchange: New Mexico, Mississippi

As always, agree? Disagree? Share your thoughts. And don't forget to head over to RCP's Fantasy '08 to trade contracts based on your own rankings.

10. Mississippi (R-Open): Resigning Sen. Trent Lott is leaving big shoes to fill, and Republicans might actually have some trouble filling them. As Gov. Haley Barbour looks around for a Republican to hold the seat, Rep. Roger Wicker is seen as the front-runner. Wicker has plenty of cash on hand, giving him a lead over any potential Democratic opponent. Democrats are working on former Attorney General Mike Moore and former Gov. Ronny Musgrove, both of whom would be top picks to steal the seat. But any Democrat will find it difficult, if not impossible, to win in this most ruby red of states. If someone like Hillary Clinton is at the top of the ticket, subtract five more points from the eventual Democratic nominee. (Last: Not ranked)

9. Alaska (R-Stevens): If your home is raided by the FBI, guilty or not, it's probably time to call it a career. Indeed, if Ted Stevens is actually the GOP nominee, this race will move higher up on Democrats' priority list. The DSCC is doing all it can to recruit Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. Other Republicans are said to be interested in a run for the seat, whether or not Stevens makes a bid. If Stevens is no longer in office, the state will have lost both its long-time Senators since 2002, while Rep. Don Young is tied up in the same scandal involving VECO Corp. Without Young, the state's position in Congress will be significantly impacted. In fact, should Stevens and Young run for re-election, that's likely to be a central tenant of their campaign. But will voters want seniority or new elected officials, like Gov. Sarah Palin, who aren't viewed as corrupt? (Last: 10)

8. Maine (R-Collins): Susan Collins was supposed to be this year's Lincoln Chafee: Popular and moderate, but a Republican in a very blue state. Democrats got their best possible candidate in Rep. Tom Allen, but polls in October have showed Collins holding consistently huge leads of twenty points or so. The race is going to tighten, and Allen is going to have the money to compete. But to the NRSC's relief, Collins is in great position a little less than a year out. Watch her rely heavily on her friend and colleague, independent Sen. Joe Lieberman, if the race narrows. (Last: 6)

7. Minnesota (R-Coleman): Comedian Al Franken and wealthy attorney Mike Ciresi both say they will abide by the results of a convention among Minnesota Democrats. But several times over the last few years, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party has faced nasty fights in post-convention primaries as candidates fail to live up to their promises. If Franken and Ciresi duke it out in a primary, Franken is likely to win but come away severely wounded. In a general, many will say that Franken is simply too goofy to be a Senator. But he's acting serious, and Minnesota is the same state that elected Jesse Ventura as governor. Incumbent Republican Norm Coleman, to his credit, is apparently taking the threat seriously. One thing to watch: The Democratic convention in Denver will likely help Mark Udall (see number 5, below). With a badly damaged GOP brand, will the Republican convention being held in Minneapolis be a good thing or a bad thing for Coleman? The answer might determine whether he gets re-elected. (Last: 8)

6. Oregon (R-Smith): Democrats are coalescing around House Speaker Jeff Merkley, though he still faces attorney Steve Novick in a primary. Merkley, who has his sights set on incumbent Gordon Smith, faces an uphill battle: Smith is doing all he can to inoculate himself from charges that he might, in fact, be a Republican. Smith has turned against the war in Iraq, recently voted for cloture on the farm bill, something 45 Republicans voted against, and makes his opposition to the Bush Administration known at every turn. But he is a Republican in a blue state during a presidential year. Merkley will need some national help if he is to compete with Smith on a financial level, but this year, that is not impossible. (Last: 5)

5. Colorado (R-Open): Rep. Mark Udall is hoping to build on a Democratic foundation that has overtaken this increasingly purple state in recent years. Democrats now control the state legislature, the majority of the Congressional delegation and the governor's mansion, and Udall hopes to take back a second Senate seat from retiring Sen. Wayne Allard. Republicans recruited previous Senate candidate and former Rep. Bob Schaffer, and while he's not the party's perfect candidate, he spent the summer raising good money and, to the surprise of many, was within one point of Udall in a mid-September poll. Still, with the Colorado landscape favoring Democrats so much, Udall remains the favorite. This is a district where the DSCC's huge money advantage over the NRSC could come into serious play. (Last: 3)

4. Louisiana (D-Landrieu): Down on the Bayou, incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu is undeniably in trouble. A Zogby poll taken for the two-term senator's challenger, Republican State Treasurer John Kennedy, a former Democrat, shows Kennedy up by seven points. That's not a huge margin for an internal poll, but any survey that shows an incumbent trailing a challenger is significant news. Landrieu had more than $3.4 million cash on hand after the third quarter, while Kennedy hadn't begun raising money. Still, the Democrat who lost several hundred thousand members of her base remains the Republicans' best target for a pickup. (Last: 4)

3. New Hampshire (R-Sununu): A poll in early October showed the rematch between Republican Sen. John Sununu and former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen overwhelmingly favoring Shaheen, the Democrat. Shaheen faces no primary and will benefit from her organization, which has stayed largely intact since her departure from the governor's mansion. Gov. John Lynch, a close ally, has kept that organization in good practice, winning with a higher percentage of votes than any governor in the state's history in 2006. Lynch is unlikely to get a strong challenger in 2008, and after the Democratic wave that swept the state last year, Shaheen remains a favorite to take the seat back for Democrats. (Last: 1)

2. New Mexico (R-Open): If Republicans can get bad news about New Mexico, bet that they will. When Sen. Pete Domenici announced his retirement, moderate Albuquerque Rep. Heather Wilson looked like a great candidate to retain the seat for the GOP. Then, dominoes started falling: Conservative Rep. Steve Pearce joined Wilson in the GOP primary. Rep. Tom Udall, a popular Democrat who will be well-funded, reconsidered his earlier decision not to run and jumped into the race, giving the party their strongest candidate to take the seat. But Udall's path wasn't entirely clear: He faced Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez in the primary. Until, that is, Chavez dropped his bid, giving Udall a clear shot. News can't get any worse for Republicans in New Mexico. But if it can, it probably will. (Last: Not ranked)

1. Virginia (R-Open): Mark Warner seems headed straight for the Senate, even if he faces another former governor in the general election. Polls repeatedly show Warner beating Jim Gilmore by twenty points or more, and there's a simple reason: Gilmore was elected when Virginia was a Republican state. Warner helped nudge the state to purple status, where it currently resides. After Gilmore forced Northern Virginia Rep. Tom Davis, a moderate, out of the race, Virginia Republicans will struggle to appeal even to GOP-leaning independents. The party can all but kiss the Senate seat goodbye. (Last: 2)

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Good Sunday morning. Some news as we wait to watch Rudy Giuliani face his most dangerous foe: Tim Russert.

-- Democrats got good news in New Mexico on Friday when Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez announced he would not run for retiring Sen. Pete Domenici's seat, leaving Rep. Tom Udall unopposed by any major candidate for the nomination. Udall will face the winner of the Republican primary between Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce, and while polls have shown Udall leading both candidates, their cases won't be helped by a long and difficult primary in which they both tack right in order to win over GOP voters.

-- Just a few days before Ohio voters head to the polls to pick a replacement for the late Rep. Paul Gillmor, Democrats and Republicans are dumping hundreds of thousands of dollars into the race. Republicans have $388,000 in television time reserved through Tuesday's election, while Democrats are firing back with $237,000 in air time, the Toledo Blade reports. Democrats are attacking Republican Bob Latta for voting to raise taxes thanks to the 2003 budget, while the NRCC is hitting Democrat Robin Weirauch for her positions on illegal immigration and the estate tax. The district is heavily Republican, as RCP's Kyle Trygstad wrote, but Democrats must think they have a real shot, given the amount of money they've dropped.

-- Longitme Louisiana Republican Rep. Jim McCrery will not run for re-election in 2008, Politico reports. McCrery was in line to chair the House Ways and Means Committee before Democrats retook the chamber in 2006. McCrery opens a solidly Republican seat that the GOP will likely retain. His retirement, though, opens the third seat on the powerful committee for 2008: Reps. Jim Ramstad and Jerry Weller have also announced they will step down as well.

-- In Minnesota, Democrats might have trouble getting a nominee out of a convention unscathed as they seek to bring down freshman Sen. Norm Coleman. The AP reports one AFSCME council, centered in large cities, is backing comedian Al Franken, while another, though smaller council focusing on county government employees is backing attorney Mike Ciresi. Both candidates have pledged to abide by the results of a Democratic convention, but in Minnesota candidates who lose the convention frequently force a later, expensive primary. If Ciresi, independently wealthy, and Franken, able to raise large sums of money, head to a one-on-one showdown, Democrats may pick a wounded nominee to take on Coleman.

-- As Auditor Crit Luallen officially bowed out of the race against Sen. Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, three other candidates are cropping up. Ryan Alessi, the Lexington Herald-Leader's indispensable political columnist, points to businessmen Charlie Owen and Greg Fischer and attorney and Iraq war veteran Andrew Horne as potential Democratic candidates. Owen ran for the seat in 1998, though he didn't make it out of the primary, and was the Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2003. Horne ran for Congress in 2006, losing to now-Rep. John Yarmuth in the Democratic primary. Fischer has not run for office before, though he is likely to spend a significant amount of his own money on the bid.

-- Attack phone calls aren't exclusive to the presidential campaign. Rep. Mark Udall, a Democrat running for a Republican-held Senate seat in Colorado, found that out the hard way this week when Common Sense Issues, a group best known for aiding Mike Huckabee in Iowa, began running a new round of calls against him, the Rocky Mountain News reported yesterday. The group is also running television advertisements, while the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee says Common Sense Issues is coordinating with Republican Bob Schaffer's campaign and the Colorado GOP. Both Schaffer and Colorado GOP chair Dick Wadhams deny the charge.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:45 AM | Email Author | Permalink

The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees this week announced they would wade into somewhat competitive Senate primaries in Minnesota and Oregon, providing early backing for Democratic candidates in two seats the party and the union hope to take back next year.

AFSCME Council 75 gave its backing to Oregon State House Speaker Jeff Merkley, who is running an uphill bid against incumbent Republican Gordon Smith. And Council 5 gave its nod to comedian Al Franken, who hopes to face incumbent Republican Norm Coleman.

Both candidates face primaries before they're able to run against the incumbents; Merkley faces Portland lawyer Steve Novick, and Franken has to get by attorney Mike Ciresi. Still, the union's early involvement suggests their interest in the races, and thanks to new FEC rules, their involvement will make a difference come the general. Whether that difference is enough to put Democrats over the top, in what have to be considered seats that favor the incumbents, remains to be seen.

We'll be covering the Minnesota Senate race in the future, but for now, check out the backgrounder on Oregon.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Three incumbent Republicans seeking re-election are taking an approach markedly different from a Republican challenger who hopes to join them in the upper chamber. For Oregon Sen. Gordon Smith and Minnesota Sen. Norm Coleman, the farm bill this week offered them the latest chance to vote against their party and join Democrats in trying to pass what will doubtless be a popular bill in their home states. Meanwhile, Smith and Maine Sen. Susan Collins are moving to inoculate themselves against criticism on the increasingly unpopular war in Iraq.

Smith and Coleman both voted with Democrats to invoke cloture on the measure on Friday, joining every Democrat and two other Republicans. The measure attracted 55 votes, short of the 60 votes required.

Smith and Collins, who also faces a tough battle in 2008, voted against their party to support a war funding bill that would have required troops begin leaving in 30 days. That bill, too, failed to gain enough votes for cloture. But while Smith, Collins and Coleman have grown closer to Democrats this year, Rep. Heather Wilson, the New Mexico Republican hoping to replace retiring Sen. Pete Domenici, is taking the opposite tack. "Sen. [Charles] Schumer only wants to fund pay, body armor and chow for the troops if he can put conditions on the money so that they cannot do the mission they have been ordered to do," she told the AP.

Wilson, a veteran herself, will have to take some strong anti-Democratic positions if she can make her way through a competitive primary against Rep. Steve Pearce. While turnout in GOP primaries has been low of late, some in New Mexico are expecting a much higher showing after a barn-burner of a race, writes the Albuquerque Tribune.

Finally, in Maine, where Collins will most likely face Democratic Rep. Tom Allen, the Kennebec Journal has a message for both candidates: They "want to engage us for an entire year. It's a big race and one that already has national eyes on it because it could help tip the balance of the Senate toward a more favorable Democratic margin ... but six to nine months of that would be just fine, thank you. Call us back in April."

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink