While some polls have showed bad news for their incumbents around the country, Georgia is a state where the Republican brand is doing just fine. A new survey from a Republican-leaning independent firm shows incumbent Senator Saxby Chambliss leading all his potential rivals by wide margins.

The poll, taken by Strategic Vision, surveyed 800 likely voters between 5/9-11 for a margin of error of +/- 3%. Chambliss was tested alongside DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones, former television reporter Dale Cardwell, former State Rep. Jim Martin, and businessmen Rand Knight and Josh Lanier. A subsample of 400 likely Democratic primary voters pitted the Democrats against each other for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

Primary Election Matchup
Jones 28
Cardwell 20
Martin 15
Knight 11
Lanier 5

General Election Matchups
Chambliss 58 (+1 from last, 12/9/07)
Jones 29 (+2)

Chambliss 57 (nc)
Cardwell 27 (+2)

Chambliss 57 (no trend)
Martin 27

Chambliss 58 (nc)
Knight 25 (+2)

Chambliss 57 (-1)
Lanier 24 (+2)

President Bush still has upside down approval numbers in the state, but most Georgia voters approve of Chambliss' job performance, by a 54%-32% margin. National Democrats were excited when Martin, the party's 2006 lieutenant governor candidate, jumped in the race, but early surveys don't show him with any breakout potential just yet.

While national Republicans struggle to get beyond their current unpopularity, it appears, so far, that Chambliss is not in jeopardy.

A side note that's interesting to observe: In every poll out of Georgia we've seen in the last four years, be it from Strategic Vision or from another organization, Chambliss is slightly less popular than his junior colleague, Johnny Isackson. Both are Republicans, and both were elected by wide margins. Anyone in Politics Nation from Georgia able to describe the phenomenon?

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

As Democrats look forward to another positive landscape in 2008, the party has cast a wide net. A new Democratic poll out of Georgia suggests the party could even give an otherwise safe incumbent at least something of a scare. While the party may not have a real shot at Senator Saxby Chambliss' seat, if they can scare the Republican into staying home and focusing on his own race, it will help elsewhere.

The poll, conducted by the Washington-based Mellman Group, was conducted between 2/21-24 for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. 600 voters were included in the sample, for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Chambliss was only tested against generic Democrats.

General Election Matchup
Chambliss 42
Generic Dem 37

Chambliss, forced from office when redistricting would have placed him in the same district as fellow Republican Jack Kingston, ran instead for Senate, beating incumbent Democrat Max Cleland. The campaign was one of the most brutal in the country, including an ad that featured Cleland's face next to Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden. Many outraged senators, including John Kerry and John McCain, spoke out against the ads slamming Cleland, a triple-amputee Vietnam veteran.

Since then, polls have continuously showed Chambliss as less popular than fellow Republican Senator Johnny Isakson, who was first elected two years after his senior colleague. The Mellman poll shows Chambliss' job approval at an upside down 38% positive and 40% negative, while just 37% said they would vote to re-elect the incumbent.

Despite his disappointing numbers at home, Chambliss remains the heavy favorite. Even as the national Republican Party has suffered, Georgia has trended more towards the GOP than virtually any other state under President Bush. Democrats have also failed to recruit a truly strong candidate. DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones appears to be the front-runner in the Democratic primary, though he faces former television reporter Dale Cardwell and businessmen Josh Lanier and Rand Knight.

While Democrats hope to expand the field, in the absence of a strong candidate it appears they may fall short. Former State Representative Jim Martin, who ran for Lieutenant Governor in 2006, may be considering a bid of his own, but even his statewide name I.D. would likely fall short against the incumbent.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

A new Strategic Vision poll out this morning shows what looks like an easy ride for freshman Sen. Saxby Chambliss. The Georgia Republican crushes all comers in a state that is fast becoming the reddest in America.

The poll, conducted 12/7-9, surveyed 800 likely Georgia voters for a margin of error of +/- 3%. Along with Chambliss, DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones, businessman Rand Knight, reporter Dale Cardwell and businessman Josh Lanier, all Democrats, were surveyed.

General Election Matchups
Chambliss 57 (nc from last, 10/21)
Jones 27 (-1)

Chambliss 57 (-1)
Cardwell 25 (-1)

Chambliss 58 (nc)
Knight 23 (-2)

Chambliss 58 (nc)
Lanier 22 (-2)

In the three years they have served together, Chambliss has always been slightly less popular than seatmate and fellow Republican Johnny Isakson. Still, Georgia voters approve of his job performance by a 53% to 34% margin, healthy for any incumbent seeking re-election. Isakson enjoys a 58% job approval margin, while 33% disapprove.

Even in this bastion of Republicanism, though, President Bush does not fare well. Just 39% approve of his overall job performance, while 45% disapprove. The same percentage approve and disapprove of his handling of the war in Iraq, though a plurality of 46% say they do not favor a withdrawal of troops within six months. Perhaps most telling of Republicans' feelings toward Bush: Strategic Vision always asks Republican respondents whether they see Bush as a conservative in the mode of Ronald Reagan. In Georgia, just 7% said yes, while 79% said no.

While Chambliss looks like he's in solid position, Bush's own standing among his base doesn't appear too good. That GOP malaise won't have a decisive impact on Chambliss, but it could be felt in other, closer states.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:45 AM | Email Author | Permalink

A Strategic Vision (R) poll shows Sen. Saxby Chambliss looking like a safe bet for re-election. The survey, of 800 likely voters, was conducted between 10/19-21, for a margin of error of +/- 3%. Chambliss was tested alongside Democrats Vernon Jones, CEO of DeKalb County, former investigative reporter Dale Cardwell, environmental engineer Rand Knight and Vietnam veteran Josh Lanier.

General Election Matchups
Chambliss 57
Jones 28

Chambliss 58
Cardwell 26

Chambliss 58
Knight 25

Chambliss 58
Lanier 24

Chambliss has a less than perfect 52% approval rating, while 36% disapprove. President Bush's job approval is in negative territory -- 36% to 49% -- while Congress has an even worse 18% approval rating. One plus-side for Democrats: Without a better, top-tier candidate, the party will probably find their baseline vote in the state.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 04:15 PM | Email Author | Permalink