Public corruption investigations, which have brought down a number of state lawmakers in Alaska over the past few years, are having their effect on races higher up on the ticket, a new poll shows. Perhaps more importantly, national Democrats now have a fifth race to put in their own top tier, seats they could win from Republicans in November.

The poll, conducted by independent pollster Research 2000 for DailyKos, was conducted 5/12-14 among 600 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Incumbent Republican Ted Stevens and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, the likely Democratic candidate, were tested. The survey sample was 32% Republican, 20% Democratic and 48% independent or otherwise affiliated.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Begich 48 / 84 / 14 / 56 / 44 / 52
Stevens 43 / 7 / 76 / 36 / 48 / 38

Stevens, whose home was raided by the FBI in connection to a corruption case surrounding an oil services company, has been tarnished by the scandal. Just 38% of Alaskans view him favorably, while 58% see him in an unfavorable light. On the other hand, Begich is widely viewed positively; 52% of voters see him favorably, with just 25% saying they have an unfavorable impression of the mayor of the state's largest city.

If President Bush is to have an impact on down-ballot races, Stevens could face even more trouble. Just 39% of Alaska voters approve of Bush's job performance, while 61% disapprove, in a state that gave Bush a twenty-five point margin of victory in 2004. But Stevens, who has been a senator since 1968 and is lauded as the third leg of the Alaskan economy, is known widely enough that he can likely avoid the president's coattails.

The question national and Alaska Democrats will push now, though, is whether Stevens can avoid the coattails of VECO Corp., the company that has already sent a good number of GOP legislators to jail.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich will run for Senate against long-time incumbent Republican Ted Stevens, according to a press release from his exploratory committee. While an ordinary race against a man often seen as one of three pillars of the Alaskan economy would otherwise be a suicide mission, Stevens has faced increasing heat for his role in an investigation surrounding a controversial oil services company, giving Democrat Begich a strong chance to steal a seat.

Begich, who is in his fifth year as mayor of Alaska's largest city, raised $267,000 since forming the exploratory body in late February, leaving him with $204,000 in the bank. He was national Democrats' top choice to face Stevens, and the only public poll of the race, conducted in early December, showed him leading Stevens by a six-point margin.

Stevens does not appear to be willing to roll over and play dead just yet. He raised $590,000 in the first quarter and has $1.32 million in the bank, though he has been spending quite a bit of money as well. In the last three months, Stevens spent more than $300,000 to go along with his fundraising haul. He has signaled that his argument for another term will rest on seniority, and given that he has secured millions -- perhaps billions -- for the state during his 40 years in office, it could be a powerful line of reasoning.

Experience, too, is an advantage Stevens has over Begich; the state's senior senator was first elected to the upper chamber when Begich was just six years old, in 1968.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has also shown it is not taking the race lightly. They have launched several websites, including BegichBaggage.com and MarkBegichFacts.info, dumping more opposition research against the Anchorage mayor than any other Democrat they are targeting this year. Stevens, perhaps anticipating attacks from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, has asked that the NRSC not advertise in such a fashion, though so far his pleas are falling on deaf ears.

The real problem is that Stevens, fellow Republican Don Young, the state's lone member of Congress, and several state legislators are all wrapped up in the investigation surrounding VECO Corp. Several of the company's top executives have pleaded guilty, as have several former members of the State House and Senate. While Stevens and Young have not been indicted or accused of wrong-doing, both have undergone intense scrutiny. Stevens' home was raided by FBI agents last year, and Young's campaign committee has paid out hundreds of thousands of dollars in legal fees.

While Stevens has no primary opponent yet, the Alaska Republican Party is in something of a rebuilding phase. In 2006, Sarah Palin beat incumbent Governor Frank Murkowski, a fellow Republican, easily in the primary. Now Palin's Lieutenant Governor, Sean Parnell, is challenging Young in the state's GOP primary, and there is no guarantee that a similar challenger won't emerge for Stevens. Unless Stevens is beaten in a primary, though, Begich has one of the best chances in the country to take a Senate seat back for Democrats.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 03:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

DSCC chairman Chuck Schumer must be dancing in the streets this morning as his party scored a top recruit in the race against long-time Alaska Senator Ted Stevens. Politico's Josh Kraushaar reports Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, who has long been pursued as a promising recruit, will announce his intentions to run against Stevens in a 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time press conference.

The announcement is not unexpected: The DSCC has talked Begich up for months, and the mayor recently joined other city leaders in Washington. National Republicans have anticipated his entry into the race as well, launching a site called BegichBaggage.com. A poll conducted in December by Maryland-based Research 2000 also seemed to encourage a Begich run, as he led by six points in a heavily Republican state.

Stevens, under investigation for his role in a scandal surrounding VECO Corp., an oil services company whose top officials are cooperating with authorities, has work to do to return to voters' good graces. The poll showed just 39% of Alaskans have a favorable opinion of Stevens, while 58% say they view him unfavorably. Still, despite the uphill battle, Stevens filed for re-election last week, though he declined reporters' questions about the investigation.

Begich, along with impressive poll numbers, is not an ordinary Alaska Democrat. His father, Nick, served as Alaska's lone Congressman until 1972, when, while traveling around the state with then-House Majority Leader Hale Boggs, his plane crashed. The younger Begich was elected mayor of the state's largest city in a 2003 special election and re-elected in 2006 by a wide 15-point margin over his chief opponent -- we kid you not -- Jack Frost.

Begich's entry into the race gives Democrats a strong chance to take back a seat they have not held since before Stevens' appointment, in 1968. Stevens is only the second person to hold the seat since Alaska gained statehood, in 1959, while four people have held the state's other Senate seat, currently occupied by Republican Lisa Murkowski.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

It has been said that Alaska has three industries: Tourism, oil and Ted Stevens. The influential 84 year old Republican Senator, who already holds the GOP record for Senate service, filed papers to run for re-election this year, this in spite of an ongoing federal investigation into his relationship with an oil services company. Stevens, appointed to the Senate in 1968, is seeking a seventh full term and may face the most difficult re-election of his career.

The investigation, which centers on testimony from VECO Corp. executives Bill Allen and Rick Smith, has already snagged several Republican state legislators. Allen has been a huge donor to Stevens' campaigns, and reportedly oversaw renovations on Stevens' house, outside Anchorage. Agents from the IRS and the FBI raided Stevens' house in July.

Speaking with reporters after filing, Stevens refused to discuss the investigation, the Anchorage Daily News reported, though the issue will certainly play a role in the campaign. Stevens maintains his innocence, and he refuses to talk about the investigation in order, he says, to avoid the appearance of trying to influence it.

Stevens has never won election with less than 60%, and re-election bids in 1996 and 2002 saw him win 77% and 78%, respectively. This time around, after much-publicized public relations snafus like the $250 million Bridge to Nowhere, Democrats sense an opportunity to steal a seat. National Democrats hope to entice Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich to run, but though Begich was in Washington recently, he has not announced a decision.

Stevens' colleague in the state's lone House seat, Republican Rep. Don Young, is also said to be involved in the investigation, and Democrats think they have a strong challenger in former State House Democratic Leader Ethan Berkowitz.

Both Begich and Berkowitz would have better chances than virtually any other Democrat in Alaska. A poll taken in early December, by Maryland-based independent pollster Del Ali, showed Begich leading Stevens by six points, thanks to a twenty-point lead among independents. Berkowitz led Young by seven points and led by twenty-two among independents.

Though they are long-time incumbents, Alaskans don't have very favorable impressions of either Stevens, who has a 39% approval rating compared with 58% who disapprove, or Young, whose 40%-54% split is only slightly better. If Republicans can't convince the two, who have represented the state for a combined 75 years, to step aside, the party may end up losing both seats.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 03:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

DailyKos is out with another Research 2000 poll today, and the results are not good for Republicans in the great snowy north. R2K tested embattled Republican Sen. Ted Stevens and Rep. Don Young alongside Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich and former House Democratic leader Ethan Berkowitz. Berkowitz has already announced his campaign against Young, while Begich continues to mull a bid against Stevens.

The poll, conducted 12/3-6, surveyed 600 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. The sample reflects the heavily Republican tilt of the state: 33% of those responding were Republicans, compared with just 19% of Democrats. The remaining 48% called themselves independent or identified with another political party.

General Election Matchups
(All / Men / Wom / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Begich 47 / 43 / 51 / 81 / 7 / 55
Stevens 41 / 46 / 36 / 7 / 81 / 35

Berkowitz 49 / 46 / 52 / 83 / 18 / 57
Young 42 / 46 / 38 / 8 / 72 / 35

There's a reason Berkowitz and Begich are out-pacing Young and Stevens: Alaska voters simply don't see the two incumbents in a very favorable light:

Fav/Unfav
Begich 48 / 19
Berkowitz 45 / 18
Young 40 / 54
Stevens 39 / 58

The numbers are pretty incredible: Independents choose both challengers by wide margins, though the state's Republican Party still maintains an incredible size advantage. But there is no guarantee that Young or Stevens will make another bid, or even be the GOP nominee come next year. Facing scandals, Republican Gov. Frank Murkowski looked to present Democrats with a great pick-up opportunity in 2006. That is, until Alaska Republicans did not renominate him, instead choosing Sarah Palin in his place.

Palin went on to win the general election over former Democratic Gov. Tony Knowles, who until Murkowski got routed was the favorite to win the seat. If Republicans choose other candidates over Stevens and Young, they are likely to be rewarded. Barring a new candidate, Democrats have the best chance they've seen in Alaska for more than a generation.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 05:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink

We're updating our Senate race rankings today, which we have failed to do since late September. If you take one lesson from the list, it's that Democrats are in even better position than they were a few months ago: More seats are open, more pickups are possible and the party is still outraising its Republican counterparts.

Still, watch the middle tier races: Sens. Norm Coleman (R-MN), Susan Collins (R-ME) and Gordon Smith (R-OR) are in trouble, but they seem with each passing day to be getting safer. All three are bucking Republican leadership at times, and while Democrats have good candidates against each, the difference between a bad year for the GOP and a terrible year will be the difference between these three surviving or failing.

Races we considered for the number 10 spot: Kentucky, where Democrats are hungry for the potential to knock off Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. McConnell has a lot of money, though, and in a presidential year, as Kentucky goes for the GOP nominee, it's hard to imagine any but the best candidate (Rep. Ben Chandler?) having so much as a snowball's chance of beating McConnell. Polls show Chandler and State Auditor Crit Luallen performing well against the incumbent, but both have said they won't run. South Dakota, where Sen. Tim Johnson is still recovering from a stroke, should be a good opportunity for Republicans. So far, though, they have only managed to recruit a State Representative who reported just $37,000 in the bank at the end of the third quarter, nowhere close to Johnson's $2 million account. Because of his health troubles, Johnson had been a retirement threat. But he announced his re-election bid in mid-October, and with an underfunded challenger, he will likely sail to another six year term in 2008.

(Correction: We wrote that State Representative Joel Dykstra had raised $37,000 in the third quarter. In fact, he raised $82,000 in the third quarter and retained $37,000 cash on hand. We regret the error and any resulting confusion.

Races we dropped from the Exchange: South Dakota, Nebraska.

Races we added to the Exchange: New Mexico, Mississippi

As always, agree? Disagree? Share your thoughts. And don't forget to head over to RCP's Fantasy '08 to trade contracts based on your own rankings.

10. Mississippi (R-Open): Resigning Sen. Trent Lott is leaving big shoes to fill, and Republicans might actually have some trouble filling them. As Gov. Haley Barbour looks around for a Republican to hold the seat, Rep. Roger Wicker is seen as the front-runner. Wicker has plenty of cash on hand, giving him a lead over any potential Democratic opponent. Democrats are working on former Attorney General Mike Moore and former Gov. Ronny Musgrove, both of whom would be top picks to steal the seat. But any Democrat will find it difficult, if not impossible, to win in this most ruby red of states. If someone like Hillary Clinton is at the top of the ticket, subtract five more points from the eventual Democratic nominee. (Last: Not ranked)

9. Alaska (R-Stevens): If your home is raided by the FBI, guilty or not, it's probably time to call it a career. Indeed, if Ted Stevens is actually the GOP nominee, this race will move higher up on Democrats' priority list. The DSCC is doing all it can to recruit Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. Other Republicans are said to be interested in a run for the seat, whether or not Stevens makes a bid. If Stevens is no longer in office, the state will have lost both its long-time Senators since 2002, while Rep. Don Young is tied up in the same scandal involving VECO Corp. Without Young, the state's position in Congress will be significantly impacted. In fact, should Stevens and Young run for re-election, that's likely to be a central tenant of their campaign. But will voters want seniority or new elected officials, like Gov. Sarah Palin, who aren't viewed as corrupt? (Last: 10)

8. Maine (R-Collins): Susan Collins was supposed to be this year's Lincoln Chafee: Popular and moderate, but a Republican in a very blue state. Democrats got their best possible candidate in Rep. Tom Allen, but polls in October have showed Collins holding consistently huge leads of twenty points or so. The race is going to tighten, and Allen is going to have the money to compete. But to the NRSC's relief, Collins is in great position a little less than a year out. Watch her rely heavily on her friend and colleague, independent Sen. Joe Lieberman, if the race narrows. (Last: 6)

7. Minnesota (R-Coleman): Comedian Al Franken and wealthy attorney Mike Ciresi both say they will abide by the results of a convention among Minnesota Democrats. But several times over the last few years, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party has faced nasty fights in post-convention primaries as candidates fail to live up to their promises. If Franken and Ciresi duke it out in a primary, Franken is likely to win but come away severely wounded. In a general, many will say that Franken is simply too goofy to be a Senator. But he's acting serious, and Minnesota is the same state that elected Jesse Ventura as governor. Incumbent Republican Norm Coleman, to his credit, is apparently taking the threat seriously. One thing to watch: The Democratic convention in Denver will likely help Mark Udall (see number 5, below). With a badly damaged GOP brand, will the Republican convention being held in Minneapolis be a good thing or a bad thing for Coleman? The answer might determine whether he gets re-elected. (Last: 8)

6. Oregon (R-Smith): Democrats are coalescing around House Speaker Jeff Merkley, though he still faces attorney Steve Novick in a primary. Merkley, who has his sights set on incumbent Gordon Smith, faces an uphill battle: Smith is doing all he can to inoculate himself from charges that he might, in fact, be a Republican. Smith has turned against the war in Iraq, recently voted for cloture on the farm bill, something 45 Republicans voted against, and makes his opposition to the Bush Administration known at every turn. But he is a Republican in a blue state during a presidential year. Merkley will need some national help if he is to compete with Smith on a financial level, but this year, that is not impossible. (Last: 5)

5. Colorado (R-Open): Rep. Mark Udall is hoping to build on a Democratic foundation that has overtaken this increasingly purple state in recent years. Democrats now control the state legislature, the majority of the Congressional delegation and the governor's mansion, and Udall hopes to take back a second Senate seat from retiring Sen. Wayne Allard. Republicans recruited previous Senate candidate and former Rep. Bob Schaffer, and while he's not the party's perfect candidate, he spent the summer raising good money and, to the surprise of many, was within one point of Udall in a mid-September poll. Still, with the Colorado landscape favoring Democrats so much, Udall remains the favorite. This is a district where the DSCC's huge money advantage over the NRSC could come into serious play. (Last: 3)

4. Louisiana (D-Landrieu): Down on the Bayou, incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu is undeniably in trouble. A Zogby poll taken for the two-term senator's challenger, Republican State Treasurer John Kennedy, a former Democrat, shows Kennedy up by seven points. That's not a huge margin for an internal poll, but any survey that shows an incumbent trailing a challenger is significant news. Landrieu had more than $3.4 million cash on hand after the third quarter, while Kennedy hadn't begun raising money. Still, the Democrat who lost several hundred thousand members of her base remains the Republicans' best target for a pickup. (Last: 4)

3. New Hampshire (R-Sununu): A poll in early October showed the rematch between Republican Sen. John Sununu and former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen overwhelmingly favoring Shaheen, the Democrat. Shaheen faces no primary and will benefit from her organization, which has stayed largely intact since her departure from the governor's mansion. Gov. John Lynch, a close ally, has kept that organization in good practice, winning with a higher percentage of votes than any governor in the state's history in 2006. Lynch is unlikely to get a strong challenger in 2008, and after the Democratic wave that swept the state last year, Shaheen remains a favorite to take the seat back for Democrats. (Last: 1)

2. New Mexico (R-Open): If Republicans can get bad news about New Mexico, bet that they will. When Sen. Pete Domenici announced his retirement, moderate Albuquerque Rep. Heather Wilson looked like a great candidate to retain the seat for the GOP. Then, dominoes started falling: Conservative Rep. Steve Pearce joined Wilson in the GOP primary. Rep. Tom Udall, a popular Democrat who will be well-funded, reconsidered his earlier decision not to run and jumped into the race, giving the party their strongest candidate to take the seat. But Udall's path wasn't entirely clear: He faced Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez in the primary. Until, that is, Chavez dropped his bid, giving Udall a clear shot. News can't get any worse for Republicans in New Mexico. But if it can, it probably will. (Last: Not ranked)

1. Virginia (R-Open): Mark Warner seems headed straight for the Senate, even if he faces another former governor in the general election. Polls repeatedly show Warner beating Jim Gilmore by twenty points or more, and there's a simple reason: Gilmore was elected when Virginia was a Republican state. Warner helped nudge the state to purple status, where it currently resides. After Gilmore forced Northern Virginia Rep. Tom Davis, a moderate, out of the race, Virginia Republicans will struggle to appeal even to GOP-leaning independents. The party can all but kiss the Senate seat goodbye. (Last: 2)

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Former State Representative Ethan Berkowitz today announced his plans to run against Alaska Congressman Don Young, the Republican who has represented the state in the House since 1973. Young has been associated with scandals currently roiling Alaska's Republican Party, and is widely considered to be thinking about retiring.

Despite his long history of bringing home the bacon for Alaska, Young won re-election last year with just 56% against an opponent who once ran for governor on the Green Party line. Berkowitz, the Democratic candidate for Lieutenant Governor in 2006, wins high praise from national Democrats, who see the seat as a possible pickup.

The move also means another Democratic recruitment target will be free for Senate Democrats. With scandal surrounding Senator Ted Stevens, Democrats smell an open seat. The DSCC has long sought to recruit Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, seen as the most popular Democrat in the state, to run either against the weakened incumbent or for an open seat.

Begich has yet to make a decision on the Senate race. National Democrats are said to covet his entry into the race, and rumor had it he and Berkowitz were deciding between themselves which would enter the House race and which would go for Stevens' seat. If Begich enters the Senate race, the DSCC and the DCCC will have scored major recruiting coups.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink