As John McCain lets a number of rising Republican stars take their turns in the vice presidential speculation spotlight, two front-runners are getting more involved in other states, a sure sign the media will descend upon them next as speculation runs rampant.

Florida Governor Charlie Crist will host two invitation-only events in Tampa and Fort Lauderdale in early June, inviting national Republicans to discuss ways to vault the wounded GOP back to the top of the pile, the Associated Press reports. Crist's top adviser and former chief of staff, George LeMieux, will be heavily involved, and to add party weight Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour is co-hosting.

Barbour took himself out of the running for the number two slot earlier this month in an interview with the Washington Times. But Crist's name has long been floated, despite his denials and demurrals, as someone with a future in the national GOP. Bringing Republican leaders together for a summit on the future of the party is a sure way to keep the vice presidential buzz going.

Meanwhile, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, one of McCain's earliest backers, will give the keynote speech at a huge gathering of Wisconsin Republicans, the Wausau Daily Herald reports. The state hasn't voted Republican since 1984, but with McCain on the ballot, Badger Republicans are optimistic about their chances. (The latest RCP Wisconsin Average shows Barack Obama running just 1.6 points ahead of McCain there.)

State and local parties around the country now have a plethora of choices for fundraising dinners large and small. Whether it's Crist, Pawlenty or any of the dozen or so serious contenders interested in the number two slot, no local party should have trouble lining up talent, especially if they're a swing state. Pawlenty, too, has serious appeal in the upper Midwest, a place McCain could make inroads in the search for new electoral votes, and heading to Wisconsin could be the beginning of his time in the sun.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

National Republican Congressional Committee chairman Tom Cole held a rare conference call with reporters and conservative bloggers today, just hours after a Republican-held Congressional seat fell into Democratic hands, the third such instance in three months and the second in under two weeks. In that election, Democrat Travis Childers defeated Republican Greg Davis to capture the seat once held by Senator Roger Wicker, a seat that has not been in Democratic hands since 1994.

As in his statement after the defeat last night, Cole was honest about his party's struggles. "When you lose 3 of these in a row, obviously you have to get beyond campaign tactics and you have to take a long hard look. Is there something wrong with your product?" he asked.

Still, in the wake of some GOP calls for a staff shakeup at the NRCC, Cole said he would resist the pressure. "I think it would be a great mistake to think that this is a question of tweaking a few things here or there or staff changes," he said. "What we've got right now is a deficiency in our message and a loss of confidence from the American people."

"That's something we need to be honest with ourselves about, look in the mirror about," he said. But, he pledged, "We continue to have offensive opportunities based on both individual issues that involve candidates and their voting records" and what he described as a do-nothing Democratic Congress.

Cole repeatedly maintained that the two Democrats who have won seats this month -- Don Cazayoux in Louisiana and Childers in Mississippi -- won by following a fundamentally Republican playbook. Nationalizing the elections, though, and associating Cazayoux and Childers with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and likely Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama can still work, he said.

The NRCC spent more than $1.7 million trying to tie Cazayoux and Childers to national and more liberal Democrats, though unsuccessfully. "I think that's still, you know, a useful tool. Do I think that's a substitute for a substantive agenda? No," he admitted. But nationalizing the election seems to be the path to which Cole is committed, raising the specter of repairing the Republican brand by November. "What we have to do is look in the mirror a little bit and say, 'How have we lost our way?'"

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Is MSNBC your choice for election night coverage this evening? If so, you'll see a familiar face on the air as Mike Huckabee co-anchors the coverage. Huckabee will join Chris Matthews, Keith Olbermann and a host of network commentators on what should be a relatively easy and early night of coverage.

It has long been rumored that Huckabee might be in line, or at least interested in, a television gig, though after his surprisingly strong performance in the GOP primary he's now said to be in line for a spot on the GOP ticket. John McCain might be watching tonight as Huckabee does battle with fellow guest-host Harold Ford, a smart politician likely akin to someone McCain's vice presidential nominee would have to debate.

A report from US News yesterday, citing a top McCain fundraiser close to the campaign's inner circle, suggests Huckabee is at the top of the vice presidential selection list.

The appearance comes after a Bob Novak article yesterday suggesting Huckabee may benefit from evangelical conservatives who hold back from supporting McCain in hopes of a Huckabee re-run in 2012. Huckabee smacked down that notion in a post on his website, as Jonathan Martin reports, calling the concept that he would do anything less than campaign at full tilt for McCain "absurd."

But Huckabee also pointed out that he will be speaking to graduates of a college for home-schooled students in Virginia. The head of that school, Mike Farris, is said by Novak to be Huckabee's chief cheerleader and has yet to endorse McCain's candidacy.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Today, we wrote about the troubling scene inside the House Republican Conference just days before a special election in Mississippi to replace now-Senator Roger Wicker. After special election losses in Illinois and Louisiana in recent weeks, tension between House Minority Leader John Boehner and NRCC chairman Tom Cole are said to be running at an all-time high.

But even though generic congressional ballot questions show Democrats running more than a dozen points ahead of Republicans -- the latest survey, from CBS and the New York Times, had it at 18 points, the same gap as before the 2006 elections -- the NRCC has been reluctant to admit a national problem.

GOP strategists have excused their party's poor performance in previous special elections by blaming flawed candidates. After the loss in Illinois, Boehner reportedly told members at a closed conference meeting that Jim Oberweis, the Republican candidate, lost his home precinct by a four-to-one margin. That statistic was repeated religiously by Republican members and staff in subsequent conversations with the media. The problem, though, is that Oberweis won his home precinct by an approximately three-to-two margin.

After Republican candidate Woody Jenkins lost his special election, the NRCC pointed to the fact that previous polls had shown Democrat Don Cazayoux leading by ten points, and he won by just three after advertising sought to link him to Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi. Nationalizing the race, they said, had closed the gap. Still, Republicans on Capitol Hill said Jenkins, who has a long history in Louisiana politics, had too much baggage.

Even the GOP candidate in neighboring Mississippi is getting in on the act. "Greg Davis [the mayor of Southaven, Mississippi and the party's candidate in that special election] and Woody Jenkins are two completely different candidates," Davis manager Ted Prill told Politics Nation.

But Davis is also being touted as a less than perfect candidate, and sources throughout Washington already have the talking point down: Davis is the mayor of a town in the Memphis suburbs, far away from the district's population center, in Tupelo. Childers' home county is just north of Tupelo, and in the South, several top Republicans pointed out, georaphy matters. If the GOP loses again, they will point to the fact that Davis was simply a candidate from the wrong part of the district.

Fair or not, that's how Republican leaders in Washington are casting their losing candidates, instead of taking blame themselves. It's probably a wise solution, given that a devastating loss in November could lead to both Cole and Boehner's ouster from their leadership posts. "The two offices are positioning themselves to avoid blame or to lay blame," one top Republican leadership aide outside of Cole's and Boehner's office told Politics Nation. "The rest of leadership is just trying to avoid a family fight."

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Reprinted from today's Wall Street Journal Political Diary:

The fast-growing Hispanic population in America has also proved a growing political problem for the Republican Party. The GOP's share of the Hispanic vote plummeted after the last Republican Congress's angry debate on immigration reform. That episode, which quickly focused on fence-building and deportations, created a portion of the electorate that now holds the Republican Party in increasing contempt.

Exit polls from the 2004 election show Hispanic voters favored Democratic candidates in Congressional elections by 55%-44% margin. Two years later, that margin more than doubled, with Hispanics favoring Democratic candidates by 62%-37%. In some states, several enforcement-only hardliners lost what had been Republican districts to more moderate Democratic challengers. In Arizona alone, Rep. J.D. Hayworth lost his seat to Democrat Harry Mitchell, while State Senator Gabrielle Giffords, also a Democrat, won an open seat previously held by a senior Republican when she beat an anti-illegal immigration activist.

This year, GOP strategists have warned that their party is in danger of categorically ruling out competing among Hispanic voters for perhaps a generation to come.

At least one state Republican Party is trying to engage Hispanic voters before it's too late. This weekend, the Florida GOP will host a Hispanic Leadership Council Conference featuring keynote addresses from Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez, Rep. Luis Fortuno of Puerto Rico, and home-state Senator Mel Martinez -- three of the leading Hispanic voices in the party today.

"The Hispanic vote and the African American vote is the future of the Republican Party," Florida party chair Jim Greer says (Mr. Greer held a similar event aimed at African American voters late last year). To get the groups involved, he adds: "We ensure that they have a seat at the table, and wherever [the Republican Party has] failed in the past, we correct that."

It is a help to the GOP that John McCain is the party's standard-bearer in this year's presidential contest. Mr. McCain is far more moderate on immigration issues than most of his primary rivals were, several of whom proposed steps just short of outright deportation of undocumented aliens. And while Mr. McCain has recently backed off his support for a comprehensive approach that would include a guest-worker program, telling conservative voters in his own base that he understands their concerns about rewarding illegal behavior, his legislative and political record could prove more appealing to Hispanic voters, or at least less damaging to the party's chances with those voters, than anything his erstwhile rivals could have offered.

If Mr. Greer's efforts to woo Hispanic voters works (and he says the Hispanic constituency is "critically important" to a successful GOP presidential campaign in Florida), the idea could be exported to other states in time for Congressional elections in 2010. But if others choose the route of ex-Rep. Hayworth and the immigration hardliners, the damage to party's reputation with Hispanic voters could be severe and long lasting.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 05:20 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Buffeted by recent losses in special elections in Republican-held seats in Louisiana and Illinois, House Minority Leader John Boehner has formed a new advisory committee to assist and monitor the National Republican Congressional Committee. The new body, which includes NRCC chair Tom Cole, will keep an eye on political and financial progress at the GOP's House campaign arm.

The twelve-person group is largely made up of Republican members already involved in the NRCC. Along with Boehner and Cole, the other nine members all sit on the NRCC's executive committee, and several have served as lead organizers on major fundraising dinners benefiting the NRCC.

Committee members include Reps. Devin Nunes, Kevin McCarthy and Darrell Issa, of California; Michigan Reps. Thad McCotter, who chairs the Republican Policy Committee, and Candice Miller, who is in charge of candidate recruitment on the executive committee; Virginia Reps. Eric Cantor, the chief deputy whip, and Tom Davis, a former NRCC chair himself; and Reps. Jeb Hensarling, of Texas, John Kline, of Minnesota, and Pat Tiberi, of Ohio.

NRCC chair Cole has come under increasing criticism in recent weeks following his party's special election losses and as the committee continues to face a serious financial shortfall against their Democratic rivals. In a meeting earlier this week, Cole blamed some fellow Republicans who have yet to contribute to the committee and who have not donated to Greg Davis, the mayor of Southaven, Mississippi who is carrying the party's banner in next week's special election to fill Senator Roger Wicker's House seat, according to The Hill.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

After flipping through hundreds of Federal Election Commission reports detailing the daily lives of every candidate under the sun, we've come to a close. Check back on the posts we've had up over the last week, inspecting the hot House races of the cycle:

The Northeast, the Mid-Atlantic, Pennsylvania, The South, Florida, the Ohio Valley, the Dust Bowl, the Rocky Mountains, the Desert West, the West Coast, the Northern Mississippi, and the Great Lakes, both Western and Eastern, along with the House campaign committees.

Taking a gander at all those House races means there are bound to be a few massive glaring errors, and for those Politics Nation apologizes. Thanks to everyone who pointed out, for example:

-- That Lou Barletta, running against Rep. Paul Kanjorski in Pennsylvania, is the mayor of Hazelton, not Scranton.

-- That some of the numbers in New Jersey reflected the cash on hand statistics for the end of 2007, not for the end of the First Quarter in 2008. In New Jersey's Third District, State Senator John Adler finished March with $1 million in the bank after raising $1.17 million, $500,000 more than we'd reported. In the Seventh District, 2006 candidate and Assemblywoman Linda Stender has $845,000 remaining after raising nearly $1.05 million. Our numbers for two Republicans in each of those districts were accurate.

-- That Indiana's primary is on May 6, not May 13 (You'd think, with all the presidential hoopla, that we would have remembered that.).

-- That Ashwin Madia, the Democratic nominee for Congress in Minnesota's Third District, could use a better descriptor than "Democratic activist." Madia is a lawyer, an Iraq war veteran and not exactly the biggest Democrat in the history of the world, either. Roll Call's Shira Toeplitz pointed us to this interview, with Minnesota Public Radio, in which Madia admits that he voted for President Bush in 2000 after telling the same station that he voted for Al Gore that year.

-- That Bob Onder, the candidate for Congress in Missouri's 9th District who has raised the most money to date, is in fact a Republican, not a Democrat.

-- That Wayne Parker, a Republican, is running for Congress in Alabama's Fifth District. Parker filed his organizational paperwork with the FEC on April 4, and we just plain missed it. He raised $177,000 in the first few days of his candidacy.

Other mistakes we made? Candidates we missed? Feel free to email us your comments and complaints.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 02:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Despite just eleven governor's mansions being on the ballot this year, Washington-based committees that will help their parties defend and contest those seats are raising record amounts of money. Beyond this year, when just four contests are expected to be competitive, both parties are already looking ahead to 2010 when three dozen seats will be up for election.

The Democratic Governors' Association will report raising $5.7 million when they file first quarter reports next week. That leaves the committee with $10.5 million in the bank, more than they have ever held after the initial three months of the year. In a statement, DGA finance chairman Martin O'Malley, governor of Maryland, predicted the committee would raise more this year than it ever has. "We are off to a great start, and we're not slowing down," O'Malley said.

But officials at the Republican Governors' Association are also confident in their fundraising abilities, and the committee will report receipts of about $1.3 million more than their Democratic rivals. The RGA raised just over $7 million in the first quarter, and will show $14.6 million in the bank when they file their reports with the FEC. "It says a lot about the RGA that we're outraising the Democrats when they have the strong upper hand," Mississippi Governor and RGA finance chair Haley Barbour said in a statement.

The two committees will likely spend their money battling over open seats in North Carolina, where Democrat Mike Easley is term-limited, and Missouri, where Republican Matt Blunt surprised observers by dropping his bid for re-election earlier this year. Two incumbents -- Washington State Democrat Christine Gregoire and Indiana Republican Mitch Daniels -- will also face tough fights to keep their jobs.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

While the National Republican Congressional Committee hasn't seen much good news lately, chairman Tom Cole finally has something to brag about: Nearly a year and a half after the 2006 elections, the committee has finally paid off its debt, Cole told members in a letter yesterday, Politico's Patrick O'Connor reports.

The party still faces a mountain to climb, especially given Democrats' huge head start in the fundraising department, but getting into the black for good after incurring a $19 million debt is a first step.

Cole used the letter to again solicit members for donations from their campaign accounts, another area of fundraising where Republicans have lagged behind their Democratic counterparts. This month, the NRCC will likely outraise the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee thanks to a benefit dinner hosted by President Bush that raised somewhere around $8.6 million.

At the end of last month, the NRCC reported $1.9 million in remaining debt, with about $5.1 million cash on hand. That trailed far behind the DCCC, which reported $38 million in the bank with just $762,000 owed to outside vendors. Even assuming the party did not spend a penny beyond paying off the debt, Republicans will still trail Democrats by at least a three-to-one margin after this month, though the gap is likely to be wider when the committees report their March fundraising totals on April 20.

Republicans on Capitol Hill have been grousing that Cole's fundraising abilities were insufficient, and public spats with Minority Leader John Boehner nearly led to Cole's exit earlier this cycle. Cole has said he is unsure if he will seek a second term as NRCC chair, as has been custom in recent years. Democratic strategist Paul Begala, meanwhile, sent out a fundraising email (apparently from his BlackBerry) before last night's midnight deadline suggesting the DCCC will report about $5 million raised this month.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

The concept of a Democratic super majority, in which the party achieves 60 seats in the Senate after the 2008 election, has increasingly cropped up in recent weeks, thanks to a New York Times story that first raised the prospect. Today, American Spectator associate editor James Antle tackles the same subject, wondering whether the party can actually run the table and reach a majority large enough to effectively shut Republicans out of the process.

But is such a large gap actually achievable? Probably not, as veteran analyst Stu Rothenberg wrote soon after the Times story appeared.

For Democrats to reach such a milestone, they would essentially have to run the table. The party is likely to pick up seats in Virginia, New Hampshire and New Mexico, and Republican-held seats in Minnesota, Alaska and Colorado remain strong opportunities for them. Assuming they pick up all five -- not a safe bet in the latter three, to be sure, especially if Alaska's Ted Stevens decides against another bid or loses his primary -- they will still fall three seats short of the magic number.

The party has made little secret of the fact that Senators Susan Collins, of Maine, and Gordon Smith, of Oregon, are top targets. That leaves Democrats one short of a super majority, and as they cast about for new targets, the terrain becomes decidedly more difficult.

To reach 60, Democrats will need to pick up one of the following states: North Carolina, Oklahoma, Mississippi and Kentucky.

In North Carolina, first-term Senator Elizabeth Dole has faced a tough six years. But the state is likely to go Republican in the presidential contest, and Dole's likely challenger, State Senator Kay Hagan, is little-known around the Tar Heel State. Dole had $2.6 million in the bank at the end of the year, and though Hagan raised an impressive $515,000, running as a Democrat against such a well-known incumbent in a Republican state will be exceedingly difficult.

Oklahoma Senator Jim Inhofe has never topped 57% in a state that votes even more heavily Republican than North Carolina, but he's faced some tough opponents: In 1994, he beat an incumbent Congressman for a partial term after Democrat David Boren stepped down. In 1996, he won a full term against Boren's cousin James, who, though underfunded, carried a well-known name. In 2002, he beat former Governor David Walters. This year, Inhofe will likely face State Senator Andrew Rice, a candidate without the footprint of any of Inhofe's three previous challengers.

Roger Wicker, appointed senator after the departure of Trent Lott, will likely face his toughest election this year, against former Governor Ronnie Musgrove. But Musgrove lost his 2003 bid for re-election to now-Governor Haley Barbour, and recent legal proceedings that might involve a previous run for office don't look good for the Democrat. Wicker will also benefit from two sets of coattails: Those of John McCain, who will be strong in the state, and of senior Senator Thad Cochran, who is running for re-election this year. Musgrove's bid remains a long shot.

Finally, a good way to beat an incumbent is to catch them off guard, as happened to several incumbents in 2006. But if any candidate is not going to be caught off guard, it will be Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Though MoveOn.org and other interest groups will target McConnell as national Republicans targeted then-Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle in South Dakota, McConnell has a $9 million bank account and is aware of the threat he faces. His likely Democratic opponent, two-time gubernatorial candidate Bruce Lunsford, will be well-funded too, but McConnell's name is likely too big to overcome.

In short, Democrats will be lucky to get to 57 or 58 seats in the Senate. Every year, close Senate races tend to break all in the same direction, as Antle points out -- Republicans won all the close races in 2002, except South Dakota, and Democrats did the same in 2006, with the exception of Tennessee. This year, though, it is hard to see how any of the four third-tier races will be close to begin with.

For Democrats, the idea of a super majority after 2008 is like buying a lottery ticket: The investment pays off in pleasant dreams, if not in reality.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

From today's Wall Street Journal Political Diary:

The news just keeps getting worse for Republicans in Congress: After losing a Congressional seat that once belonged to former Speaker Dennis Hastert in Illinois, the party lost what may have been a winnable seat in Indiana. Adding insult to injury, the National Republican Congressional Committee spent more than $1.2 million losing the Illinois race and yet didn't spend a penny in Indiana despite its candidate getting slammed by the NRCC's heavy-spending Democratic counterpart.

But members of the House Republican Caucus aren't ready to pack it in and go home just yet. The party raised $8.6 million at an annual dinner in Washington last night, headlined by President Bush, exceeding even the $7.5 million goal set for the shindig. And members of Congress let it be known they consider the loss of the former Hastert seat an aberration that can be blamed on the candidate.

While the loss was a blow, GOP leaders blamed dairy owner and wealthy businessman Jim Oberweis for being a flawed candidate. "Jim Oberweis went from being perceived [as] the tenacious guy to just being a wealthy individual looking for a gig," one Republican Member of Congress said. "There's nothing the NRCC is going to do about that. To lay [the loss] on the doorstep of the NRCC, it would be inaccurate."

In turn, a strategist familiar with the Illinois campaign suggested Mr. Oberweis lost because Democrats effectively tied him to President Bush, even casting the special election as an opportunity to vote against the current administration. That has to be troubling to national Republican leaders, who have long maintained that Mr. Bush will not be on the ballot, and thus not a factor, in 2008.

Shrugging off the Bush albatross would be difficult enough if the party were on an equal financial footing with Democrats. But that's hardly the case. Even after last night's dinner (and assuming they spent nothing on the dinner), the NRCC still trails House Democrats by more than $20 million in cash on hand. The job of defending a stunning number of vulnerable open seats will be even more difficult if the GOP has an empty checking account.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 03:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink

A new report from the Federal Election Commission shows House Democrats were more generous with their own campaign cash than House Republicans in the first thirteen months of the cycle. The transfers, from candidates' campaign committees to the DCCC and the NRCC, are just a part of the large cash disadvantage Republicans face.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which had nearly $35.1 million in the bank through January 31, accumulated the money with the assistance of about $18.4 million from their caucus members. Top donors included House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who kicked in $785,000; Whip Jim Clyburn, with $770,000; Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, who donated $685,000; committee chairs Charlie Rangel and Barney Frank, with $685,000 and $550,000, respectively; caucus chairman Rahm Emanuel, who gave $475,000; and current DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen, who donated $435,000 to his own cause.

Those numbers do not include Democratic members' pledges to raise additional funds for the DCCC. Depending on their position in the House, members have to raise additional funds for the committee, ranging from less than $100,000 to tens of millions of dollars. How much each member has to raise, though, is a closely-guarded secret.

Republicans lagged far behind Democratic contributions, with just $10.6 million in donations to the beleaguered NRCC. Minority Leader John Boehner dropped $845,000 from his own campaign account, while Reps. Dave Camp ($480,000), Wally Herger ($300,000), Kay Granger ($265,000) and Cliff Sterns ($262,500) wrote big checks. All four are said to be seeking prime committee slots. Retiring Reps. Jim McCrery and Jim Saxton helped out, donating $490,000 and $275,000 from their soon-to-be-shuttered campaign accounts.

While Republicans have a smaller caucus than Democrats, their average member is still giving far less than the average Democrat. Democrats are ponying up just shy of $80,000 per member, while Republicans are giving about $53,500 each. What is more impressive is that most Democratic freshmen, especially those facing tough re-election battles, are forgiven dues for at least their first term.

Boehner, who has worked hard to keep his caucus together, has grown increasingly frustrated with some members. At a GOP caucus meeting last week, Boehner told members to get off their "dead asses," as Politico's Patrick O'Connor reported, to help the NRCC raise money. NRCC chair Tom Cole and minority whip Roy Blunt also urged members to help the committee raise money for the party's March 12 fundraising dinner, O'Connor wrote.

Even if the NRCC makes its $7.5 million goal, and even if members begin handing over more sizable checks to the national party, Republicans have a long way to go to catch up. The NRCC reported just $6.4 million in the bank after January 31, nearly $29 million behind Democrats.

Democrats are raising more money than Republicans virtually across the board, and compared with 2005, the last pre-election year, and 2003, the last pre-presidential year, Democrats are performing better than they were and showing increases that outpace the GOP. In 2007, the DCCC's cash receipts grew 57%, while the committee's receipts grew 136% over 2003. Republicans, meanwhile, saw their fundraising shrink by 22% from 2005 and 31% over 2003.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

The Republican Governors' Association raised a record $10.6 million at an annual gala last night in Washington, giving the only GOP campaign committee with a leg up on its Democratic rival a bigger boost. The event is also certain to boost the vice presidential prospects of -- or at least buzz around -- the lead organizer, someone who has already been proposed as John McCain's potential running mate.

Though Republicans own just 22 governorships, down from a peak of more than 30 during the 1990s, the haul is impressive, and much more than other recent Republican single events in Washington have raised. The RGA already had a cash lead over Democrats, hauling in more than $21.5 million last year and banking $9.2 million. The Democratic Governors' Association reported raising more than $12 million in 2007, with $7.2 million remaining on hand.

Any politician who can raise in one night almost half what the committee raised in an entire year is going to be noticed. But dinner chairman Mark Sanford, South Carolina's governor, might bring something more to his party than just money: Sanford, who endorsed McCain in 2000 as a congressman but stayed neutral in this year's contests, has been rumored as a potential number two on the McCain-led ticket.

Choosing Sanford could be a very popular move for McCain among his own base. Popular among Washington conservative groups around whom McCain has been a pariah, Sanford would bring a record on domestic issues, matters that are frequently seen as a McCain weakness. Both Sanford and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, rumored to be another top McCain choice, appeared this weekend on Fox News Sunday to show off their television skills.

President Bush headlined the gala, offering the 1,400 people crammed into the National Building Museum an upbeat assessment of his party's chances next year, including that Republicans would hold the White House. The event came at the end of a weekend of meetings among the nation's governors, eleven of whom face voters this year.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

The campaign wing of the House Republican caucus narrowly outraised its Democratic counterpart in January, though the NRCC remains well behind the DCCC in total cash in the bank. FEC reports released yesterday show a minor victory for NRCC chair Tom Cole, but DCCC chief Chris Van Hollen retains bragging rights.

In January, the NRCC raised almost $3.8 million and has a bank account of $6.4 million. They retain a debt of slightly over $2.3 million. The DCCC raised just over $3.7 million and spent much more than Republicans. Democrats have $35.5 million in the bank and $1.7 million in debts and obligations.

Senate Republicans are in relatively better position with regard to their Democratic opponents. The NRSC raised $3.5 million in January, banking $1.2 million of that for a total bank account of $13.2 million. But the DSCC raised $3.9 million last month, a faster clip than the NRSC, and ended with $30.5 million cash on hand.

While Senate Republicans enjoy a smaller disadvantage than their House counterparts, their fundraising pace has been slower than each of the other three committees in recent months. They banked more than Democrats last month by spending $600,000 less than the DSCC.

While both Democratic campaign wings are easily outpacing their GOP counterparts in money in the bank, Howard Dean's Democratic National Committee fell farther behind Mike Duncan's Republican National Committee last month. The DNC raised $5.76 million in January and banked just $60,000, ending the month with $3 million in the bank and a $250,000 debt. The RNC, meanwhile, pulled in $11.8 million and kept more than $21.7 million in the bank.

In total, Democrats have a big fundraising advantage. Together, the three committees have $69 million in the bank, while Republican committees have $41.3 million lying around.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

A former employee acting as an outside vendor is suspected of fraud by the National Republican Congressional Committee, chairman Tom Cole said in a statement released this afternoon. Without going into details, Cole said the NRCC has notified authorities of its suspicions.

"We learned earlier this week of irregularities in our financial audit process," Cole said in the statement. "We are aggressively and thoroughly investigating the matter and, while we determine the details, have terminated our relationship" with the ex-employee.

A Republican with knowledge of the investigation told Politico, and Politics Nation has confirmed, the FBI has been contacted about the possible fraud.

Update: A Republican source tells Politics Nation that the investigation is focused on Chris Ward, who served last cycle as comptroller at the NRCC. This cycle, the committee had been using Ward as a vendor who handled their reports with the Federal Election Commission, paying him at least $37,500 during 2007.

Ward has also served as treasurer for campaign committees and leadership PACs including those of Reps. Jim Walsh, Jim Saxton, Peter Roskam, Lamar Smith and Denny Rehberg as well as Senator John Ensign's leadership PAC.

The NRCC would not comment on the investigation, though the source, who is outside the committee, characterized the fraud as severe. Details of exactly what is being investigated is unclear. A call to Ward's home, which matched the address listed in the NRCC's FEC reports, went unanswered and the message unreturned.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 03:25 PM | Email Author | Permalink

NBC Political Director Chuck Todd on Sunday put into words what every political junkie has thought for months. "We've all got what we want for Christmas," he said on Meet The Press. "It's this race."

A year in to the widest open, most covered and most fascinating presidential race in a generation, and just a week before the first votes are cast, eight candidates have at least some legitimate chance at winning their party's nominations. None are in their positions by accident.

In the fight for the Republican nomination, there have arguably been four front-running candidates. The strategies that have worked -- and those that haven't -- have made for a fluid race in which, even at this late date, many have concluded there is no front-runner at all. Recently, we examined the top moments in the Democratic race. Today we take a look at the five moments in 2005 that most changed the GOP race:

Continue reading "5 Moments That Changed The GOP Race" »

Posted by Reid Wilson at 02:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Top Republicans are expected to announce soon that the National Republican Congressional Committee is finally out of debt, Politico's Patrick O'Connor reports. After almost a year of paying off a massive debt incurred during the 2006 cycle, Republicans in the House helped the struggling committee with transfers of about $3 million this week.

The committee has reported a re-energized fundraising base after two strong wins in special elections in Virginia and Ohio. Much of that new money has come from members of the GOP caucus, including $500,000 donations from both House Minority Leader John Boehner and former Appropriations Committee chairman David Dreier. Retiring Rep. Jim Saxton looks likely to donate some of his remaining war chest to the committee, while others seeking prominent committee slots are likely to pony up big sums as well.

Now out of debt, House Republicans turn their attention to shrinking the huge fundraising edge their Democratic counterparts enjoy. Through October 31, the DCCC maintained $29.2 million cash on hand, with about $2.1 million in debt. Republicans held just $2.5 million with a $3.6 million debt. After spending more than $500,000 to win the two special elections, and after paying down the debt, Republicans still face a long road ahead if they are to take a run at reclaiming seats.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Republican National Committee deputy communications director Dan Ronayne is leaving his post next week to take over as a top manager at the Washington lobbying firm Chlopak, Leonard, Schecter and Associates.

Ronayne, who served as communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee during the 2006 cycle, will be replaced by Brian Walton, who served as his deputy last cycle.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 08:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink