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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilso (AIM: PoliticsNation)

Blog Home Page --> Morning Thoughts

Strategy Memo: Sweet Relevance

Good Friday morning. Yesterday, Alaska crossed the $4 per gallon of gas mark. Today, it's Chicago and Hartford. Watch those economic conditions poll numbers sink progressively lower. Here's what Washington watches this morning:

-- After a week in which Congress passed the farm bill and the House narrowly approved a war funding measure, both chambers are in pro forma session today. President Bush has already arrived in Riyadh for meetings with King Abdullah, during which he will talk about those very gas prices we mentioned earlier. It's not often that the increasingly sidelined president gets to make news, but he sure did yesterday.

-- That news came on the floor of the Israeli Knesset, when President Bush attacked those who "seem to believe that we should negotiate with the terrorists and radicals," calling that approach the "false comfort of appeasement." Barack Obama's campaign took that as an insult and slammed the president for politicizing the 60th birthday celebrations of the Jewish state, and for bringing Nazis into the picture, as AP's Liz Sidoti writes. Obama has said he would meet with leaders of some countries, most notably Iran, that the current administration has not. White House spokeswoman Dana Perino told reporters the line wasn't a shot at Obama, but it certainly looked that way. Reports this morning suggest Obama will offer a strong response today.

-- Obama wasn't alone in his outrage. Virtually every key Democrat in Congress issued a statement defending their party's likely nominee (Tracked down in the hall, Delaware Senator Joe Biden called the comments "bull" something, while a release from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called the comments beneath the dignity of the presidency). In Rapid City, South Dakota, even Hillary Clinton got involved: "President Bush's comparison of any Democrat to Nazi appeasers is both offensive and outrageous on the face of it, especially in light of his failures in foreign policy," she said, defending Obama per Ben Smith. John McCain, on the other hand, would not disassociate himself with the comments and said Obama "needs to explain" why he would meet with Iran, the New York Times' Elisabeth Bumiller writes from the bus.

-- Meanwhile, McCain's comments weren't the only shot the Arizona senator took at his colleague from Illinois yesterday. On a conference call with conservative bloggers, McCain previewed what is likely to be the harshest argument to come out of the candidate's own mouth during the campaign: "Senator Obama does not have the knowledge, the experience, the background to make the kind of judgments that are necessary to preserve this nation's security," he said, per TPM's Greg Sargent. The old tactic of making an opponent's biggest strength, in this case youthful energy, into a weakness, in this case inexperience, is McCain's best chance at winning in November.

-- But the candidate spent most of yesterday in a positive mood, telling a Columbus audience that the war in Iraq can be won by the end of his first term and previewing the intervening four years' developments on taxes, national security and the sort of post-partisanship that McCain asserts he represents, the AP's Glen Johnson writes. But forget those other issues, all reporters wanted to talk about was this new timeline for ending the war: Was this the same thing McCain blasted Mitt Romney for in advance of Super Tuesday? Was this McCain's version of a "Mission Accomplished" banner, as some Democrats suggested? Neither, McCain insisted. Most polls show voters don't approve of the war but trust McCain to handle it better, though it's clearly an issue around which he needs to tiptoe lightly. The first hurdle: Ending speculation over his "100 years" comments. Does this accomplish that goal? In the DNC's minds, it does not.

-- Meanwhile, we wrote yesterday about the loss of several McCain aides due to their lobbying efforts on behalf of the military junta in Myanmar. Also yesterday, the campaign had to ask GOP strategist Craig Shirley to step down due to his involvement in a 527 organization, and manager Rick Davis heard questions about his ties to a pro-Moscow political party in Ukraine. To stem the bleeding, McCain's team is re-vetting the entire staff, Marc Ambinder reports. Each staff member is filling out a lengthy questionnaire in coordination with a new policy on conflicts of interest, and anyone not in compliance will be shown the door.

-- Finally, from the West Coast, in a four-to-three decision the California Supreme Court struck down two state laws that define and limit marriages to those between a man and a woman, the New York Times writes. If no stay is granted within thirty days, same-sex partners will be allowed to marry, the second state, after Massachusetts, in which such unions will be recognized. Anti-gay marriage initiatives were on the ballot in a number of swing states in 2004, though some argue their presence did not actually hurt John Kerry that year, but this time around, marriage is not likely to be a hot issue. Neither Obama nor McCain are on the extremes of their party -- Obama won't support marriage, and McCain voted against a national ban because of federalism concerns. In this instance, it appears an issue that gets fringe groups worked up will not be in play come November.

-- Criminals Of The Day: On the do-not-call list? This campaign doesn't care, and now they've admitted wrongdoing in Oregon. Which campaign so brazenly runs afoul of, nay, openly scoffs at, the Beaver State's laws regarding robo-calling those on the federal register? Well, actually it's both Hillary Clinton's and Barack Obama's campaign that are making the illegal calls, as the Oregonian reports today. Both campaigns have stopped and are scrubbing their lists in accordance with Oregon law, but if the state's attorney general had decided to bring charges, the campaigns might have been on the hook for a whopping $5,000 per call.

-- Today On The Trail: Obama will join former Senator Tom Daschle for a town hall meeting in Watertown, South Dakota, to talk about rural issues. Former Senator George McGovern will join the two for a rally in Sioux Falls later this afternoon. Clinton will stump in Springfield, Oregon before heading to Salem and a town hall meeting in Portland. McCain addresses the annual meeting of the National Rifle Association in Louisville, Kentucky, and ends the evening in Newark, New Jersey, ahead of weekend plans.

Strategy Memo: Edwards Returns

Good Thursday morning. Any idea what all the cable networks will be focused on today? "Hello, Senator Edwards' booker?" Here's the rest of what Washington is watching today:

-- The House will take up a bill to appropriate supplemental funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, along with some money for domestic spending, while the Senate could start to vote on the conference committee's report on the farm bill, a report that passed the House with limited opposition. President Bush, on his first full day in Israel, visited Masada this morning and will address the Knesset today, before meeting with Quartet Representative and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

-- But the big news today is John Edwards, the former candidate and one-time Iowa front-runner who stood on stage in Grand Rapids, Michigan last night to offer some very kind words for Hillary Clinton before announcing his endorsement of Barack Obama. In the heart of Reagan Democrat country, Edwards talked about working-class issues, and the healing between Obama and white working class voters begins. Expect Edwards to get out on the campaign trail a lot for Obama in the coming months to start doing that repair work.

-- Edwards' support drives another nail in Clinton's coffin in a meta sense, but practically, he doesn't even officially bring the 16 delegates already named to Edwards-backing seats at the convention. They're free to vote for whomever they like, though given the number of ex-Edwards supporters who have migrated to the Obama campaign it's pretty likely they will be in his corner too. Notice that Edwards waited until after his state's primary; he likely couldn't have helped Obama, not only because of Obama's large margin in North Carolina but also because Edwards, who only ran once in the state, doesn't have much of an organization there. Still, more than Joe Andrew or George McGovern or Roy Romer, Edwards' backing has an air of finality, and of the party coalescing around the winner, about it.

-- Practically speaking, Edwards' was on the second-most important nod bestowed upon Obama yesterday. NARAL Pro-Choice America also gave the young senator their blessing, with the president of the abortion rights group saying they were backing the candidate who would likely win the Democratic nomination, again while praising Clinton. It's the first major women's group to abandon Clinton, and it's another sign that the Washington establishment is deciding that the race is over. (For more, check out The Fix's extensive look at the reasoning and timing behind an Edwards nod)

-- NARAL's backing of Obama prompted an angry reply from more than a dozen Clinton-backing female members of Congress, who in an evening press conference called the endorsement all kinds of ugly names. Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz said she felt "abandoned," while California Rep. Jane Harman called it a "betrayal," per Politico. EMILY's List President Ellen Malcolm issued a strongly-worded statement blasting NARAL, as Marc Ambinder writes. The endorsement's real fallout: Strife in the abortion-rights community, and further rending of the Democratic fabric.

-- Over on the GOP side, look for this story to be repeated ad nauseam: A John McCain aide is in trouble for lobbying connections. McCain has already lost two aides over their ties to the repressive regime in Myanmar, and now the Wall Street Journal reports that campaign manager Rick Davis had helped a Ukrainian political party that had the support of Vladimir Putin, the former Russian president who had a habit of meddling in nearby countries' elections. McCain, meanwhile, has publicly voiced support for the incumbent party of Viktor Yuschenko. Davis still owns a portion of the lobbying firm, Davis Manafort, but he's not earning any income, a spokesman reports. With former lobbyists involved in McCain's campaign, this story is going to return.

-- Meanwhile, McCain has designated one aide as his top attack dog already. Former chief of staff Mark Salter, frequently referred to as the senator's alter ego, has honed his skills in the art of the attack memo, and the Journal, profiling him today, suggests that could be a prelude to a campaign not inclined to pull punches. If Salter is pushing for an aggressive line against Obama, McCain is going to hear about it, and from a voice he trusts. How influential is Salter in McCain's inner circle? Three campaign aides who had quit smoking took up their habits again thanks to time spent around him.

-- Buyouts Of The Day: As the deadline for accepting a buyout from the Washington Post passes today, expect a few more names to leak out. But few could compare with yesterday's news, both in the news and entertainment divisions. On the funny side, sportswriter Tony Kornheiser, an ESPN and Washington staple, will take the buyout, he announced on his show yesterday. On the serious side, David Broder will too, as Politico reports. The man long called the dean of the Washington press corps will become a contract writer after 2008.

-- Today On The Trail: Obama is down today, spending time in Chicago. Clinton has a town hall meeting in Bath, South Dakota, before heading out west to California for a fundraiser. McCain has a major speech ready for Columbus, Ohio, and he will end the day in Washington.

Strategy Memo: Two Wounded Parties

Good Wednesday morning. Hoping to show he's just a normal guy, Barack Obama headed to a Charlestown billiard parlor a few days ago and performed much better than he did in a Latrobe bowling alley a few weeks back. But the bowling alley haunts him, as Ben Smith screen-grabs. In previous Clinton speeches, she had boxing gloves behind her. Now's it's a bowling pin. Here's what a chuckling Washington is watching this morning:

-- The House begins considering a supplemental war funding bill as well as a measure on food and energy security, while the Senate continues work on other measures. President Bush left Washington for a Middle East tour yesterday evening and this morning he arrives at Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv, before heading to Jerusalem to meet with President Shimon Peres and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, the latter of whom could be knocked from office by a bribery indictment in a matter of days.

-- In the latest primary contest, the fifty-first this year, Hillary Clinton won West Virginia by a hefty 67%-26% margin, with John Edwards winning the remaining 7%. Clinton will take home about 20 of the state's 28 delegates, and the victory could provide the campaign with a fundraising bump -- they sent out the email and a text message last night -- and a new excuse to call for the seating of delegates from Michigan and Florida. As campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe told the New York Times last night, a mantra he's taken to repeating, the win means Clinton will have the political and financial wherewithal to continue through June 3, though he won't say anything about June 4.

-- But West Virginia's election had racial undertones that neither candidate can find comforting. Exit polls show 22% of voters said the race of one of the candidates was important, and of those voters, 81% backed Clinton over Obama. Clinton won the remaining three quarters of the electorate by a much smaller 59% of the vote. Half of voters said Obama shares the views of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, and 54% would be dissatisfied if Obama wins the Democratic nomination. In short, there is a segment of the Democratic electorate that will not vote for an African American, and enough of them live in West Virginia to show up in exit polls.

-- Those voters, less-educated, lower-income whites who dominate the state, as ABC News' Gary Langer finds in the exit polls, were similar in many regards to voters around the country -- they want change more than experience, the vast majority has been hit by hard economic times, and the majority thought Clinton had attacked Obama unfairly. In most other states, Obama has won the first and third categories, which Clinton has taken the second. In West Virginia, Clinton split change voters with Obama, with 47% to his 48%, while actually winning 54% of voters who said she had attacked unfairly.

-- Obama is still the likely nominee, but as Clinton pointed out last night, since 1916 no Democrat has won the White House without winning West Virginia. That could spell trouble for Obama come November, not just in West Virginia but among like-minded voters in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Those three states alone make up 44 electoral votes that can't be made up simply by being competitive in Virginia, Colorado and a few of the new states Obama's team thinks he can put on the table. And to make matters worse, there are other states that look more like Appalachia than like the Potomac area, especially in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and the rest of the Upper Midwest and Rust Belt.

-- John McCain had something of a bad night yesterday as well. In Mississippi, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis, a Republican, lost a special election seat to Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers in a district that gave President Bush a 25-point win in 2004, making Childers the third Democrat to steal a special election from Republicans in the past three months. (See our write-up of the race here -- "GOP Stunned By Loss In Mississippi") McCain is running significantly ahead of his party in national polls, but if the GOP can't even win a seat in the heart of the Deep South, they're going to be able to lend their top of the ticket virtually no support come November.

-- How badly has the loss in Mississippi shaken the House GOP? "The political environment is such that voters remain pessimistic about the direction of the country and the Republican Party in general," National Republican Congressional Committee chair Tom Cole said in a shockingly forthcoming statement. "I encourage all Republican candidates, whether incumbents or challengers, to take stock of their campaigns and position themselves for challenging campaigns this fall by building the financial resources and grassroots networks that offer them the opportunity and ability to communicate, energize and turn out voters this election." One House leadership aide told Politics Nation: "To lose two Southern seats in two weeks, I mean, oh my God."

-- Rebound Of The Day: The morning after Clinton's big win in West Virginia, the two Democratic candidates are acting in very opposite roles, speaking to the larger status of the race as a whole. Clinton returned to Washington to sit with top members of her finance committee, while Obama has picked up backing from two super delegates, including Indiana Rep. Pete Visclosky and the chairwoman of Democrats Abroad. Inching closer to the 2,025 delegates needed the day after getting smacked in West Virginia, or holding a pep rally among top advisers the day after winning big? Shouldn't those roles be reversed? Not this year.

-- Today On The Trail: Obama meets workers at an economic discussion in Warren, Michigan before rallying in Grand Rapids later tonight. It's Obama's first visit to Michigan in ten months after skipping the state's delegate-stripped contest in January. Wife Michelle, meanwhile, makes stops in San Juan and Old San Juan, Puerto Rico. Clinton is doing several television interviews today, including all three evening news programs and a spot on CNN. Husband Bill is in the Great Plains, stumping in Missoula, Montana before holding an event at a school in Pine Ridge, South Dakota. McCain, who was in Washington State yesterday, has no public events yet today.

Strategy Memo: Losing My Religion

Good Tuesday morning. As has been remarked, baseball is a lot better in high definition. That is, unless your team blows a five-run first inning to lose in ten. Aside from celebration of the Nats' win over the Mets last night, here's what Washington is watching:

-- The Senate is in session this morning, resuming roll call votes on a bill to reform flood insurance. The House takes up a number of measures under suspension, as well as a measure regulating credit and debit card receipt information and a bill on human rights in North Korea. The House Rules Committee meets today to formulate a rule on the farm bill, which is likely to cause a huge fight and will make its way into the presidential campaign. President Bush is off to the Middle East today, stopping first in Israel. It's the first day of a six-day tour.

-- Voters in West Virginia head to the polls today, and when the bell chimes at 7:30 p.m. Eastern time all the cable networks are likely to immediately call the state for Hillary Clinton. But even a huge win may not be enough. Yet again, the media is buying into Barack Obama's spin of expectations, thanks in some measure to those in Clinton's own camp. "Just wait 'til we win, like, 80-20," State Senate Majority Leader and Clinton-backer Harry Truman Chafin said yesterday, per CNN. That echoes Bill Clinton's own 80% comment over the weekend, as ABC captured it. This has been an issue with Team Clinton all along: Even when they try to manage expectations, they get so excited they predict bigger wins than they end up with. Meanwhile, anything over about 65% would be a big win for the candidate, but at this point it's probably too late to reset expectations.

-- Democrats have taken to warning Clinton not to smash her intraparty rival anymore, and the tone has in fact changed markedly. ABC News' Jake Tapper takes a look at some of those concerned with the final zingers Clinton might hit Barack Obama with, but West Virginia, and next week's election in Kentucky, is more of a final lap instead of a dogfight. The releases her campaign has issued haven't mentioned Obama by name since Friday, when she hit his health care plan during a stop in Oregon. The target yesterday was John McCain's climate change plan, like shooting fish in a barrel for a Democratic constituency, and perhaps the first serious step in an audition for a slot on the ticket.

-- McCain's plans offered a pretty serious split with the Bush Administration, including a cap-and-trade system that was first proposed by Democratic candidates early on in their primary. McCain also wants tough diplomacy targeting China and India, urging them to join global efforts to stop climate change, as AP's Glen Johnson wrote from Portland. Something to consider: Not only is the environment a favorite subject of granola-eating liberals in hiking boots and flannel in Oregon and Washington, it's also an emerging concern in the evangelical community. And as evangelical voters take a look at Barack Obama, McCain is reminded he's still got some work to do. (Sidenote: There were about four articles this weekend on evangelical voters leaving the GOP, including this one from the Seattle Times.)

-- Obama, though, has his own emerging religious problem. For many Jewish voters, U.S. support of Israel is perhaps the most crucial issue, and some still don't trust Obama. That's a large reason the McCain campaign thinks Florida is safely in their column. But Obama isn't going to give up such a crucial Democratic voting bloc that easily, and he spent a long time with The Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg going over his feelings on Zionism, on settlements and several international issues affecting the Jewish state. As McCain struggles to be embraced by what should be his natural base, so too is Obama fighting to get what should be his own team in his corner.

-- The less-reported, but probably bigger, story today: Voters in Mississippi's First Congressional District head to the polls for the third time in two months today to elect a replacement for Senator Roger Wicker. The district is a heavily Republican area where the Democratic candidate, Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers, came within about 400 votes of winning the April 22 preliminary round outright. Childers is facing Republican Southaven Mayor Greg Davis, who joined Vice President Dick Cheney at an Election Eve rally last night. Read all about the battle for the seat, including interviews with Childers and Davis, here.

-- By itself, a congressional special election, even one in which Democrats have the chance to pick up a GOP-leaning seat, isn't a huge story. But if Childers wins today, it will be the third special election this year that Democrats have won from Republicans, and it will leave the House GOP caucus reeling. As John Boehner and Tom Cole look toward their future in leadership, they can't afford another year of staggering losses. And if the Republican Party is losing seats that voted for President Bush by 25 points, every indication points to a disastrous environment for the party that hasn't caught a break for several cycles. A loss tonight could start some younger Republicans actively contemplating a challenge to Boehner's status at the helm of the House GOP. Oh, and it doesn't help that New York Rep. Vito Fossella may resign as well, forcing a special election in a seat that voted once for Al Gore and once for George Bush.

-- Gadfly Of The Day: Bob Barr is in the race for the Libertarian Presidential nomination, and some Republicans are already upset, the Washington Times reports today. The former Georgia Congressman and impeachment manager made his announcement yesterday at the National Press Club even as Republicans worried he could tilt a few states towards the Democrats. Over at the RCP Blog, Kyle Trygstad takes a look at just how much a threat Barr really is.

-- Today On The Trail: Obama starts his day in Washington before heading to a town hall meeting on the economy in Cape Girardeau, Missouri, south of St. Louis. Clinton is also waking up in Washington before heading to a victory rally in Charleston tonight. John McCain is still on his West Coast swing, hitting an environmental roundtable and a media availability in North Bend, about forty minutes east of Seattle. McCain will later fundraise with Republican gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi.

Strategy Memo: Moving On

Good Monday morning. The storm system that hit the Midwest this weekend is blowing through Washington at the moment, and campaign events in West Virginia could be rained out as a result. Here's what a wet Washington is watching today:

-- The Senate today meets for a period of morning business, with no roll call votes planned. The House has a pro forma session scheduled as well. Two days after seeing his daughter married, President Bush is back at the White House, where he will hand out Preserve America Presidential Awards in the Rose Garden. Vice President Cheney will rally the troops in Mississippi on behalf of Republican congressional candidate Greg Davis, a measure of just how conservative that district is.

-- A day before West Virginia's crucial (we jest) primary, in which twenty-eight delegates will likely go heavily for Hillary Clinton, the New York Senator will spend her time in the Mountain State. As evidence of his commitment, or lack thereof, Barack Obama has one stop in West Virginia today before quickly jetting off to Louisville, Kentucky, in advance of next week's primary. Obama's performance might begin to worry some of his advisers -- West Virginia is to Democrats as Ohio is to Republicans: If the candidate doesn't win the state, they're not winning the White House. And, the Financial Times reports, of the twenty-something people interviewed at a rally with Bill Clinton, none would say they'd vote for Obama in November, were he the nominee. The question to be determined: Is it Obama's problem if he loses the state to John McCain, or is it more evidence that the state is becoming like Alabama or North Carolina (willing to vote Democratic locally, but not federally)?

-- Why won't those voters back Obama in November? It's a Republican's dream, with voters citing flag pins and Jeremiah Wright and religions other than their own (one would think those last two are mutually exclusive). But as John McCain and Clinton continue to not bedeck themselves in flag memorabilia (Most of the media doesn't either, even as they ask Obama and his surrogates about the "issue;" campaign communications director Robert Gibbs pointed that out to the MSNBC gang this morning. None of the four people on set had pins on.), and as Obama maintains serious distance between himself and Wright, one has to consider that some voters may just be looking for an excuse to vote against Obama. McCain can't touch any of those controversies with a ten-foot pole, and he won't, but he's already benefiting from a bank of voters who just won't consider Obama.

-- Meanwhile, it's pretty obvious that Obama's got the nomination all wrapped up. Clinton will do well in West Virginia and in Kentucky, which votes a week from tomorrow, while Obama's probably got a healthy lead in Oregon. But with just over 130 delegates available in all three of those states combined, even then it's not enough for Clinton to catch up. Too, it's hard to continue a campaign that's $20 million in debt, as communications director Howard Wolfson said Clinton's is, per the Washington Post's Anne Kornblut. Still, maybe wins in the two Appalachian states help Clinton retire those campaign debts and exit the race with her head held high and her status in the Democratic Party largely intact. Most Clinton advisers, Kornblut writes, are privately asking the when, not if, question.

-- Obama continues to maintain that Clinton can stay in the race as long as she wants, but he's already looking ahead to November. Missouri proved crucial in both 2000 and 2004, and though their primary happened way back on Super Tuesday (a narrow Obama win, after a call reversal by the AP), Obama will hold a town hall meeting on economic issues in the state this coming Tuesday, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch learned in an interview with Senator Claire McCaskill, one of Obama's biggest backers. An ironic footnote: Obama will head to Cape Girardeau, birthplace of the man whose Operation Chaos might have delivered Indiana's narrow margin to Clinton, Rush Limbaugh.

-- Obama and McCain are already turning toward each other and targeting important blocs of voters, primarily independents and Latino voters, the New York Times wrote yesterday. And the two may even campaign together; McCain's team floated the idea of joint town halls last week, and this weekend in Oregon Obama called the concept "a great idea." But the battle will come down to traditional battlegrounds, like Ohio and Pennsylvania, as well as a newly-competitive field atop and west of the Rocky Mountains. And despite promises of a high-minded campaign, both already have ads defining their opponents shot, chopped and ready to go. Per the ads, Obama is young and inexperienced and McCain represents the third term of the most unpopular president in history.

-- John McCain is out west to start the week, stumping in Oregon and Washington State where he will unveil his views on environmental issues and climate change (a mixed record, the Post writes today). Throughout the campaign, McCain has spent time on climate change issues, and that may put the two Northwest states in play, if not in McCain's column. Remember, despite a liberal reputation, three of Oregon's five districts are Republican-leaning, and Al Gore won the state by just 7,000 votes out of a few more than 1.4 million cast. John Kerry did little better, winning by just four points. If Obama has to spend time on the West Coast for anything other than fundraising come October, that could be a sign McCain has the race completely wrapped up.

-- Word Of The Day: Now entering the political lexicon: Saltergram. In response to a Newsweek story that he saw as a little harsh on the GOP ("The Republican Party has been successfully scaring voters since 1968, when Richard Nixon built a Silent Majority out of lower- and middle-class folks frightened or disturbed by hippies and student radicals and blacks rioting in the inner cities."), top McCain aide Mark Salter fired off an angry letter to Newsweek chief Jon Meacham, as Jonathan Martin reports. Salter has long been closer to McCain than virtually anyone else, but he's gaining prominence and taking some heat off his candidate. If Karl Rove was Bush's Brain, maybe Salter is McCain's Temper. Perhaps that would absolve the candidate of having to demonstrate his own.

-- Today On The Trail: Politickin' in West Virginia, Clinton hits events in Montgomery, Clear Fork, Logan and Fairmont. Obama stops in Charleston for a rally before heading to a similar event in Louisville. And John McCain starts his day with an economic speech in Portland.

Strategy Memo: Little Help From His Friends

Good Friday morning. If we brawled half as well as the Seattle Mariners, we'd have already taken out a few fellow political blogs here in Washington. JMart, watch your back. Here's what Washington is watching this morning:

-- The House and Senate are not in session, and the President is in Crawford, Texas, where daughter Jenna will be married this weekend. Looking out the window, we understand that this is just one of those days when no one wants to be in Washington. After next week, Congress takes a Memorial Day recess.

-- Before the sun even rose, Barack Obama's campaign had sent out two emails pointing to new support from super delegates Donald Payne, a member of Congress from New Jersey, and Peter DeFazio, who represents southwest Oregon. That puts Obama at just six super delegates shy of a majority of those votes, according to the latest RCP Delegate Count, and today could very well be the day he finally surpasses what had once looked like an insurmountable lead for Hillary Clinton -- in fact, a lead so big she had hoped it would propel her to the nomination. Her advantage now gone, it's another sign that Democrats have effectively, if not quite actually, chosen their nominee.

-- The super delegates in the bag, the pledged delegates in the bag, the popular vote in hand and the momentum on his side, Obama plans to declare victory after polls close in Kentucky and Oregon on May 20, Politico's Washington Times article yesterday on documents from the Whitewater case came from seemingly nowhere, and last night NBC's David Shuster reported that RNC opposition researchers had 1,200 pages of documents on Clinton, should she have won the nomination. Even though she's not going to be their opponent in November, the RNC can still have a little fun with the notion that the then-First Lady was nearly indicted. Obama's oppo file, by the way, is a pretty hefty 1,000 pages on its own.

-- Out on the trail on his own, John McCain's chances at the electorate uninhibited by an actual Democratic nominee could be coming to an end. He's taking the chance now to shore up that conservative base, aiming a speech yesterday squarely at social conservatives. The address, in Rochester, Michigan, focused on sex trafficking, freedom of religion and child pornography, all battles he said would be a priority in his White House, the New York Times' Elisabeth Bumiller. Those are all issues Southern Baptist Convention head Richard Land had urged McCain to speak out on, and later yesterday the religious conservative icon told Bumiller he was "delighted" with the speech.

-- Meanwhile, it's good to have friends in high places, especially when you can exert a little pressure on them. McCain, some Democrats close to negotiations over the Federal Election Commission believe, has been pressuring the White House to get something done, and in recent days President Bush offered three new commission appointees and backed away from demands that one specific Republican be approved, the New York Times' Michael Luo writes. That's because, without a functioning commission, John McCain can't get his publicly financed $84 million for the general election. One Republican who already serves on the panel, David Mason, has been withdrawn, and it's probably just coincidence that Mason has raised questions about McCain's withdrawal from public financing in the primary (Top McCain lawyer Trevor Potter says that's not the case).

-- A spat is brewing between Obama and McCain, and it could provide a serious preview of the larger battles and wars heading into November. In the back and forth over a Hamas spokesman's comments on Obama, McCain has said the group's position is fair game. Obama called that "disappointing" before going a step farther: "For him to toss out comments like that I think is an example of him losing his bearings as he pursues this nomination," Obama said of his future rival on CNN yesterday. A biting memo from McCain Consigliari Mark Salter accused Obama of an intentional but "not particularly clever way of raising John McCain's age as an issue." Ben Smith has the whole memo.

-- A theory about why McCain wins arguments in the mud: Obama the Outsider comes to the general election seeking high-minded discourse and putting himself on a higher plane than those around him. McCain the Reformer comes to the debate not because he's naturally better than all of Washington, but because he's been tarnished by the Keating Five scandal and he not only bounced back but showed he learned something, hence the drive toward the McCain-Feingold campaign finance bill. McCain is human; Obama is set up as something more. Bring Obama down, and the fall is all that much harder. McCain, in truth, is harder to bring down because he's been down before.

-- Bad News Of The Day: Thanks to a little-understood provision in the McCain-Feingold bill, Hillary Clinton has just about three months to repay the $11.4 million she has loaned her campaign. After an "election day," as the nominating convention would be, Clinton would be able to recoup just $250,000 from contributors, US News' Bret Schutle writes. That means a loss of about $11.15 million for the Clintons, and that's a tough pill to swallow. And don't forget the millions in debt to vendors, including a plurality of it to Penn, Schoen & Berland. Will conservatives change their minds on McCain-Feingold now that, in the end, it's come around to cause the Clintons some serious headaches?

-- Today On The Trail: Clinton starts her day in Portland with a discussion on health care before flying back to a fundraising dinner for the Kentucky Democratic Party in Louisville. Obama makes stops in Beaverton, where he will talk about the economy, before heading to Albany for a town hall meeting and to Eugene for a rally. Tomorrow morning, Obama will stop in increasingly Democratic Bend, in the center of the state, before heading back to Chicago. McCain spends today in South Carolina raising money; he will talk to the media in Columbia.

Strategy Memo: Grace Under Fire

Good Thursday morning. As candidates make plans to hit West Virginia in the lead up to their primary, how many places will they visit with undecided super delegate Robert Byrd's name on them? It should be more than a few; the whole state has something to do with the country's longest-serving current senator. Back here in Washington, here's what's on people's minds today:

-- Not much going on today, sort of a lethargic day to match the gunmetal-grey sky in Washington. The Senate continues its work on a bill to reform flood insurance programs, and the House will finish its week today as well. President Bush is at his ranch in Crawford, while Vice President Cheney is meeting employees at a financial institution in Philadelphia before making a speech marking the 60th anniversary of the state of Israel.

-- On the presidential campaign trail, it appears to be all over but the crying. The serious pressure on Hillary Clinton officially kicked off yesterday with a one-time backer, former Senator George McGovern, abandoning Clinton, offering his backing to rival Barack Obama. McGovern is not a super delegate, but some other prominent party leaders who back Obama are super delegates, and McGovern's support for Obama was worth some news. All told, Obama picked up four backers with convention votes yesterday, while Clinton gained two and lost one (to Obama).

-- Clinton has heard calls for her exit before. Had she not won New Hampshire, those calls would have been cacophonous. They began again in the run-up to Super Tuesday, and to primaries in Texas, Ohio and elsewhere. But she's always had the argument that she's still got a chance with the super delegates. But the latest RCP Delegate Count shows Clinton leading among that group by just eleven, and the moment Obama overtakes her can't be more than a few days away. When that happens, the negotiations about how to exit the race will only increase.

-- It's one thing to begin to call for Clinton's ouster. It's quite another to get the candidate to go along with it. Clinton was back on the trail yesterday, having hastily scheduled a campaign stop in West Virginia, and today she takes a long trip from Washington to Charleston to Sioux Falls and tiny Central Point, Oregon, just north of the California border. Clinton held a big fundraiser here in Washington last night with about 1,500 people, and yesterday she met with four super delegates who have yet to decide on a candidate, including Reps. Tim Mahoney, Ciro Rodriguez, Jerry McNerney and Chris Carney, according to Ben Smith. Those aren't the signs of a candidate ready to drop out. Then again, John Edwards didn't act like he would be dropping out in the days before he did.

-- Obama, on the other hand, isn't quite the nominee in waiting, but he's going to start acting like it, the LA Times' Peter Nicholas writes today. Obama will stop by in remaining primary states like West Virginia and Oregon, but he's also going to start hitting events in swing states that will be important in the general election, and that have already held their primaries. The Clinton campaign calls it hubris, but Obama will take more direct aim at John McCain in coming days and weeks, while ignoring the rival he doesn't believe has a shot to win anymore.

-- One key factor Democrats would have to face that McCain might have been able to avoid is starting to look worse for the Arizonan. In 2000, McCain's local paper, the Arizona Republic, went pretty easy on him. This year, Obama faces a tough Chicago media, led by the Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet, while Clinton has to deal with the screaming headlines of the Post and the Daily News and face down the New York Times, one of the few organizations left that sends multiple reporters on the trail. But McCain gets rough treatment this morning from the Republic, which writes that, just maybe, his maverick image isn't all it's cracked up to be. If McCain actually gets a tenacious press on his heels, even if from the hometown paper alone, it might put a new spin on his national image.

-- Obama and McCain are going to do this one a little differently, though. Strategists for both sides have long said that the 2000 and 2004 map will be inoperative; whereas President Bush, John Kerry and Al Gore fought over perhaps a dozen states, McCain and Obama are going to be looking at perhaps twice that many (as McCain chief Rick Davis told us last month). Obama, during his victory speech in North Carolina on Tuesday, promised he would carry the state in November; the state has voted Republican since 1980, the Wall Street Journal writes today.

-- Are new states really in play? Of course every four years campaigns say theirs is the one that can operate a real 50-state strategy (and of course no one ever does), but Republicans are confident that they can make a play for states like Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Michigan and the West Coast -- though they're aware that California is monetary black hole, they have yet to decide if it's in play. Democrats, on the other hand, still have high hopes for the Mountain West, states like Colorado and New Mexico, which President Bush won last time around, and some southern states like Virginia, Arkansas and elsewhere. McCain, with his unique appeal to independent and moderate voters, and Obama, with his ability to turn out new voters, are ideally suited to build a map that will thoroughly flummox political scientists for years to come.

-- Deal Of The Day: Clinton has now loaned her campaign a total of $11.4 million, and she's probably added another $10 million or so in unpaid expenses, as Huffington Post's Tom Edsall writes today. Could she be waiting for an Obama offer to help pay down that debt? A graceful withdrawal would vastly improve Clinton's standing in the party, and there may be a future waiting for her in Senate leadership. How Harry Reid and Dick Durbin feel about that, though, is another question.

-- Today On The Trail: Clinton makes stops in Charleston, West Virginia, Sioux Falls, South Dakota and Central Point, Oregon, where she ends her evening after holding a fundraiser in Ashland, just south. Obama is in Washington for the day, a second day off the trail. And John McCain wakes up in New York, fresh off his appearance on the Daily Show, for a major fundraiser.

Strategy Memo: As A Doornail

Good Wednesday morning. If you're anything like Politics Nation, you've had close to no sleep since Monday night. That, friends, is what a good Election Night is all about. Here is what a groggy Washington is watching this morning:

-- The Senate meets today to consider a bill on flood insurance, while the House will take up bills aimed at muting the housing crisis. House Republicans head to the White House early this morning to meet with President Bush, after which he will make a statement. Later, Bush addresses an annual meeting of the Council of the Americas, as will several other Cabinet members. Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez holds a roundtable discussion with several GOP senators on the importance of the Colombia Free Trade Agreement on Capitol Hill, continuing to put pressure on Congressional Democrats to bring the measure to a vote.

-- On the campaign trail, yesterday's voting may have slammed the door on the Democratic nomination. Results from Indiana and North Carolina trickled in throughout last night, and they were not good for Hillary Clinton. After a drubbing in North Carolina -- late results indicate Obama won by sixteen points -- Clinton saw an early lead in Indiana shrink throughout the night, despite appearing on stage and declaring victory when only one media outlet had called the race for her. In the end, late results from key Obama strongholds helped the senator from the neighboring state pull within 25,000 votes.

-- Clinton's victory speech, which came about three hours after polls closed in Indiana, contained the defiant "full speed ahead" message advisers said she would project. But it did seem to include a vaguely concessionary note. She mentioned her website just a few times -- a tough night isn't going to bring in the money like her post-Pennsylvania haul -- and promised a unified Democratic Party once the contest is complete. Advisers probably became aware of that fact, and in order to project a new sense of optimism and haste, Clinton will now hold a rally in Shepherdstown, West Virginia, today, instead of spending the day down in Washington.

-- But appearances aside, after the last chance she had to seriously make up the delegate count, the calls for Clinton's withdrawal from the race will grow in coming days. More importantly, Clinton's last opportunity to persuade super delegates to stay on the sidelines has fallen flat. Of the 200-something super delegates who have yet to announce their support for a candidate, how many come out today in support of Obama? Early delegate tallies estimate that Obama netted an additional ten delegates out of last night's contest, bringing him to 1,842, just 162 short of the 2,024 needed to clinch the Democratic nomination without the assistance of Florida and Michigan.

-- Meanwhile, the media has come to the same conclusion. Bloggers started buzzing when NBC Washington bureau chief Tim Russert dropped a gem: "We now know who the democratic nominee is going to be and no one is going to dispute it." The New York Times' Adam Nagourney writes that Clinton's newfound energy and economic populism, built up after a big win in Pennsylvania, has left the building. Even Clinton's own team, the Post's Perry Bacon and Anne Kornblut write, was disappointed at the results, leading to a renewed focus on counting delegates from Michigan and Florida (Audible during Clinton's speech: Chants of "Count the votes! Count the votes!"). With no solution on the horizon, and no reason for the Obama campaign to acquiesce to one that won't benefit them, even that argument has become harder for Clinton to make.

-- But why quit now? Clinton faces contests in West Virginia and Kentucky in the next two weeks, races she is expected to win easily. It is unlikely that even huge wins in those states will do any good: Delegate breakdowns were not available this morning, but after a big win, Obama is likely to net a number of delegates out of North Carolina, and after such a close race in Indiana, no one is likely to emerge with more than a one- or two-delegate advantage. Kentucky has 51 delegates up for grabs, which is one fewer than Oregon has, a state likely to go as heavily for Obama as the Bluegrass State will for Clinton. Even with West Virginia, Clinton will not make up many more delegates than she lost tonight. Expectations for wins are one thing, but the underlying fact remains that Obama, after tonight, is extremely unlikely to lose the Democratic nomination.

-- The man who can claim he kept Clinton in the race, at least for a little while: El Rushbo. Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" had an effect in Indiana, the Obama campaign claimed, delivering a little under 7% of the primary electorate for Clinton. Based on exit polls, 41% of voters who would back John McCain in a November matchup between the Arizona Senator and his colleague from New York cast ballots yesterday for Clinton, meaning they turned out specifically to keep Clinton's hopes -- and the non-stop Democratic contest -- alive. ABC News polling director Gary Langer disagrees that Limbaugh's encouragement gave Clinton her margin while Huffington Post's Sam Stein takes the opposite view. But lack of concrete credit hasn't stopped Limbaugh from crowing before, and it won't today.

-- Fissure Of The Day: As the Democratic race concludes, many have contemplated just who can give Clinton the news that her race is futile. The combination of close advisers and strategists will include husband Bill, but would it be Terry McAuliffe, her campaign chairman? DNC uber-member Harold Ickes? Perhaps retired General Wesley Clark, one of Clinton's biggest backers. Clark called Clinton last night, prominent liberal blog AMERICAblog reported early this morning, to become the first major Clinton backer to break the news. The question today: Will any of Clinton's other major backers follow suit?

-- Today On The Trail: Clinton hosts a town hall meeting in Shepherdstown, West Virginia before raising money at a Washington hotel. Obama is spending today down in Chicago. And John McCain has a town hall meeting set for Rochester, Michigan, before heading to New York for a guest appearance on The Daily Show. McCain's appearance tonight will make him the most-frequent guest Jon Stewart has had on the show.

Strategy Memo: The Blue Collar Belle

Good Tuesday morning, and happy Election Day, for the seventeenth time this year. From January 3rd's Iowa caucuses to Super Tuesday to early March contests in Texas and Ohio and now to Indiana and North Carolina, nearly everyone's gotten a turn to vote. If the race does end today, how mad will voters in Oregon, Kentucky and West Virginia be that they didn't get a chance to play Iowa? Aside from the feelings of Beaver, Bluegrass and Byrd-staters, here's what Washington is watching today:

-- The Senate gets back to the Federal Aviation Administration Reauthorization measure this morning, to which the upper body is debating amendments. The House takes on consumer product safety, as well as a bill that would exempt Nelson Mandela's African National Congress from inclusion in the terrorism category. The lower chamber also takes up a bill on coin modernization. At the White House, President Bush will sign a bill awarding the Congressional Gold Medal to Myanmar pro-democracy activist Aung San Suu Kyi, who remains in her home country, and then meets with Martin Torrijos, the president of Panama. Education Secretary Margaret Spellings will be at the Edward Brooke Charter School in Roslindale, Massacusetts today. The school is named for the former Massachusetts Senator who had a torrid affair with Barabara Walters, as the media icon writes in her autobiography.

-- Back to the campaign trail. First, the basics: Polls close in Indiana this evening at 7 p.m. Eastern Time. It's looking like a beautiful day in the Hoosier State, with highs approaching 80 degrees. It's the perfect weather for massive turnout as Hillary Clinton leads the latest RCP Indiana Average by five points. In North Carolina, polls are open until 7:30 p.m., and the weather in Tar Heel land looks equally inviting for a massive turnout.

-- Thousands of voters got their civic duty out of the way a long time ago, and as in other states, early voting numbers are indicative of what will probably be a big showing at the polls. In North Carolina, nearly 500,000 voters have already made their voices heard -- that's 13% of eligible voters, the Boston Globe reports, and almost a fifth of the Democrats who were registered to vote in 2006. Fewer voters have cast ballots in Indiana, where 159,000 voters have already punched chads. That's 4% of eligible voters. By tonight's end, election boards in both states are going to report the highest turnout for a presidential primary in their state's history.

-- The battle today will determine the future of the Democratic race, as we write today, but the future will be determined by which candidate has achieved a more down-home style. With a series of interviews, a slight tweak of the accent and a laser-like focus on economic pocketbook issues that white working class voters say they most care about, Clinton has tried to turn herself into the hero of the av