EMILY's List, an outspoken and powerful group that backs women candidates running as pro-choice Democrats, has waded in to two more primaries in recent days, bolstering a front-runner and an underdog in North Carolina and Virginia. Whether the organization will do harm or good in at least one of those contests, though, is still up in the air.

The group, whose endorsement comes with access to a wealthy and vast fundraising list, is backing former Rep. Leslie Byrne, a Democrat running to replace retiring Virginia Republican Tom Davis, and North Carolina State Senator Kay Hagan, who is running for the right to face Senator Elizabeth Dole in November.

In the Tar Heel State, the endorsement was bestowed upon the leading Democratic candidate. Hagan faces investment banker Jim Neal in the May 6 primary, and with an electoral base and impressive early fundraising, looks to be the likely nominee. Through the end of the year, Hagan had $515,000 in the bank, about three times what Neal had stored up. Both candidates trail Dole by a wide margin; she had almost $2.7 million on hand through December.

It's not the first race EMILY's List is involved with in North Carolina. Earlier, the group announced its backing of Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue, in what has become a contentious Democratic primary for governor with State Treasurer Richard Moore.

While Hagan may be a safe choice for the group, the decision to back Byrne in Virginia will be more contentious. The Eleventh District, which Davis has represented since 1994, is one of the most narrowly split districts in the country, giving President Bush just a 2,000 vote win in 2004. Based in rapidly-expanding Northern Virginia, the area is ripe for a Democratic takeover, especially considering the recent strong performance of state Democrats.

But many believe Byrne isn't the candidate for the job. Nominated for Lieutenant Governor in 2005, she lost to Republican Bill Bolling even as Democrat Tim Kaine took the top job, largely on the strength of impressive vote totals in the Washington suburbs and exurbs. Local Democrats have better feelings toward Fairfax County Council chairman Gerry Connolly, though Byrne's name recognition and base -- she was the incumbent Democrat Davis beat in 1994 -- make her a tough competitor in the primary.

EMILY's List's role in the race became more evident this week when the group paid for part of a mailing slamming Connolly for "bullying" tactics on the supervisors' board, the Washington Post reported today, and for hiding relationships with organizations that eventually got contracts with the county. Byrne's campaign paid for the rest of the mailing.

Connolly, who released a poll recently showing him with a two-to-one lead over Byrne, hit back hard, accusing his rival of "swift boating" fellow Democrat Mark Warner during the 1996 Senate race and implied the future governor and now-Senate candidate was a racist.

The scrum is one of the first major blow-ups in a race that isn't expected to get any nicer. The winner of the June primary will face off with businessman Keith Fimian, for whom Davis cleared the GOP field. While the Democratic primary may be ugly, the party is favored to pick up the seat, as Politico's Josh Kraushaar wrote in his extensive look at the district this week.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Fairfax County Board of Supervisors chairman Gerry Connolly will officially file today for Virginia's 11th District seat being vacated by Republican Rep. Tom Davis, the Washington Post reports. Davis's retirement announcement from the House at the end of January was a blow to Republicans who will have at least 28 House members not returning in 2009.

Davis's Northern Virginia district has been trending Democratic for years. Democratic candidates for governor and senator have won large majorities here in recent elections, and Democrats recently won control of the state Senate in part by defeating Northern Virginia Republican incumbents like Davis's wife, former State Senator Jeannemarie Devolites Davis.

"We think that the retirement of Tom Davis made this district one of the Democrats' top pick-up opportunities this year," said DCCC spokesperson Kyra Jennings. "The people of Northern Virginia are looking for someone more in line with their priorities. And we feel we have a strong list of candidates."

Already in the race for the Democratic nomination are retired naval commander Doug Denneny, physical therapist Lori Alexander, and former state legislator and U.S. Rep. Leslie Byrne, who held the 11th District seat for one term before Davis defeated her in 1994.

Byrne, who has run unsuccessful campaigns for the U.S. Senate and lieutenant governor, reported having more than $100,000 cash on hand at the end of 2007. Connolly, who recently formed an exploratory committee and began raising money, said he's raised $200,000 in the past month.

On the Republican side, wealthy businessman Keith Fimian reported having more than $650,000 cash on hand, and already has the support of Davis. He will also likely avoid a costly and competitive primary, unlike the Democrats. National Republicans feel this will give him the edge in the general election.

"Keith Fimian is not only a successful businessman, but he has already been able to rally grassroots and financial support behind his candidacy," said NRCC press secretary Ken Spain. "The Democrat candidates have launched a battle against themselves over who can lurch the furthest to the left. We are confident that we can retain the seat."

-- Kyle Trygstad

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Virginia Republican Tom Davis announced today that he will step down from Congress at the end of the year, though he left open the possibility of running for office again someday. The move was not entirely surprising since Davis removed his name from consideration for the upcoming Senate race in Virginia.

"I want to emphasize that I am not closing the door on future public service, but after 29 years in office, winning 11 elections, I think it is time for a respite," Davis said in a released statement.

Davis initially told supporters he would run for Senate if Republican John Warner retired. But after Warner announced he would be leaving the chamber, the Virginia GOP voted to nominate its candidate through a convention, rather than a primary. A convention gave a big advantage to former Governor Jim Gilmore, whom the conservative base in the state would surely support over the moderate Davis.

Davis was first elected to the Northern Virginia-based 11th District in 1994. Shortly after being elected, Davis was named chairman of the Government Reform and Oversight Committee's D.C. subcommittee, and in 2003 became chairman of the full committee, surpassing a number of Republicans on the committee with more seniority.

Davis has remained active on issues pertaining to the nation's capital, and most recently worked with D.C. Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton on a drive to give the District a full voting member of the House. He has jokingly been referred to as the Congressman from the Orange Line, the subway route that travels through his district.

Davis was elected NRCC chairman in 1998, and a successful election cycle won him re-election to the post in 2000. In 2002 he worked with Karl Rove on redistricting plans across the country that helped Republicans boost their majority.

Virginia's 11th District includes much of Fairfax County, including the bustling Tyson's Corner, a massive junction of highways and office parks, located 10 miles outside of D.C. The entire region has been trending Democratic for some time, helping provide winning margins for Democrats in recent state legislative elections. But Davis's tenure and moderate voting record has helped him remain in office.

However, in 2006 he won with just 55% against a little-known and underfunded Democrat. Despite the vote of confidence he gave in his retirement announcement that Republicans will keep the seat, Davis has previously admitted the GOP will be hard pressed to win here if he retired.

Democrat Gerry Connolly, chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, has already formed an exploratory committee for the seat. His position as the supervisors board chair gives him a similar spotlight as that of a city mayor, and it is the same office Davis held before being elected in 1994. Other Democrats who have been waiting for Davis to retire will likely join the race as well, and depending on who Republicans can recruit, this should be one of the party's best chances at a pick-up in the country.

-- Kyle Trygstad

Posted by Reid Wilson at 03:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

In a possible setback to Congressman Tom Davis, the moderate Northern Virginia Republican running to replace retiring Sen. John Warner, Politico's Josh Kraushaar reports the state Republican Party Central Committee voted yesterday to nominate a candidate for Senate by convention.

Davis allies, Kraushaar reports, were lobbying for a primary, which they believe would give their candidate a better chance against more conservative former Gov. Jim Gilmore. Davis has a million-dollar fundraising head start on Gilmore, and a primary would draw many more moderate Republicans to the polls. A convention, many contend, would advantage Gilmore by drawing more conservative party activists.

The winner of either a primary or a convention will most probably face former Gov. Mark Warner, a Democrat, in November. A Washington Post poll out this week showed Warner handily beating both Republicans. The same poll shows Gilmore leading Davis in the primary, 48%-29%.

But the setback for Davis could also become a setback for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. If Davis decides that facing a convention will be too difficult to win and opts instead to run for re-election in his Northern Virginia district, he would be a heavy favorite for re-election. If he continues with his Senate race, Democrats will have a strong chance to pick up the seat. While Democrats could still give Davis a run for his money, it would certainly be a much more uphill fight.

Another factor for Davis to consider is his wife, Virginia State Senator Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis. Devolites-Davis faces a tough re-election fight in state legislative elections this year, and political observers familiar with Virginia politics say her seat is a top Democratic pick-up opportunity. Many had suggested that Devolites-Davis would try to replace her husband in the House as he sought the Senate seat. If Devolites-Davis loses her seat, her bid for her husband's seat would be severely compromised.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 08:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink