TN Dem Faces Tough Fight
Freshman Democrat Steve Cohen faces a difficult rematch this year that could rob him of his seat in a district where racial tensions bubble just under the surface. Cohen, whose district includes Memphis in Tennessee's southwestern corner, is one of a very few white members of Congress who represents a majority-minority district, which Harold Ford vacated to make his ill-fated Senate bid.
In 2006, Cohen, a long-time State Senator, barely beat Nikki Tinker, a former aide to Ford, with just 31% in a 15-way primary. Tinker was one of several serious African American candidates, while Cohen was the only serious white candidate. Cohen went on to win the general with 60% of the vote, though the second-place finisher, Jake Ford, Harold's brother, took 22% as an independent. This Congress is the first in more than 30 years that a Ford has not represented the seat.
Nearly 60% of the district's voters are African American, and, as a measure of how crucial their support is in a primary, Cohen initially sought to join the Congressional Black Caucus. CBC leaders had none of it, and Cohen dropped his bid.
This year, Tinker is running again, and she's hitched her wagon straight to Barack Obama's, arguing that she represents the most change possible. While that might spell bad news for Cohen, he actually benefits from Jake Ford's re-entry into the race, this time as a Democrat. Tinker is the more polished candidate, and she raised $250,000 -- an impressive amount for an intra-party challenger -- through the end of 2007, though Ford will help split the African American vote.
Cohen's $521,000 in the bank is a not-insubstantial sum, and both candidates will spend the vast majority of their money in the August primary. President Bush managed just 30% of the vote in 2004, and given what is expected to be heavy turnout in a presidential contest, the Democratic nominee is expected to waltz to victory in November.
But that primary is expected to be bloody, and racially-tinged. Whether Cohen can stave off Tinker and Ford will be determined by how many African American voters he can move to his column, and the percentage of white voters who are on his side.
For Tinker, the key to victory is uniting the black community around her candidacy, marginalizing Ford and casting the contest as a two-way battle between herself and the incumbent. If she is able to do that, she will likely knock off incumbent Cohen. The task won't be easy, though: Ford's name identification is through the roof, thanks to his brother and his father, who held the seat for years before Harold Jr. came along.
Update: The Memphis Flyer reports today that Jake Ford returned to the elections office yesterday to re-file for the race as an independent instead of a Democrat. His second bid for office could be just as difficult as his first, but by running as an independent he's given Tinker a serious leg up in the primary.