When six-term Democratic Rep. Darlene Hooley told supporters she wouldn't run for re-election, House Republicans thought they had a clear opening in a seat that favored them. President Bush won the suburban and exurban Portland district twice, by thin margins of about 5,000 votes each time, and a political neophyte willing to spend his own money had given Hooley a tough race in 2006.

That newbie, businessman Mike Erickson, is running again, and after putting more than $1.5 million into his own race last year, Republicans think they have a good candidate running in a good seat. They cannot welcome the news, then, that Kevin Mannix, another Republican, is joining the race. Mannix, a former State Senator, former state Republican Party chairman and the party's gubernatorial nominee in 2002, when he came within three points of upsetting Democrat Ted Kulongoski.

Mannix has run for several other offices, including Attorney General, in 2000, and a repeat race for Governor in 2006 (he finished second in the primary). Having been involved in politics in the state for close to two decades, Mannix is well-known among Republican primary voters, which is both a plus and a minus for him -- the 2006 gubernatorial primary, particularly, got nasty as Mannix and businessman and eventual nominee Ron Saxton went after each other.

Erickson and Mannix will face each other in a May 20 primary before going on to a general election. While Democrats have to be excited about the GOP primary, they have the little matter of nominating their own candidate to deal with. Many names have been floated -- including former Monmouth Mayor Paul Evans, Clackamas County Commissioner Martha Schrader and her husband, State Senator Kurt Schrader and even current U.S. Senate candidate Steve Novick -- but no one has made their candidacy official.

After the primary, both candidates will have plenty of time to rearm and battle around a district that sprawls from the foothills of the Cascade Mountains to the Pacific coast and encompasses most of five counties. The seat, by November, could prove to be one of the closest and most heavily contested in the country.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Six-term Oregon Democrat Darlene Hooley announced yesterday she will not run again this year, the Portland Oregonian reports. Hooley, 68, had been hospitalized late last year with a lung condition that prevented her from returning to Washington for a month. Her health troubles, combined with too much fundraising and travel between Washington and Portland, contributed to her decision.

Hooley's Fifth District rings suburban and exurban Portland to the South. Stretching south to Salem and west to the Pacific Ocean, the district includes both Oregon State University and the company that makes Tillamook cheddar cheese. The district holds heavily Republican and heavily Democratic areas, and the difference comes from Washington County, where independent voters determine the fates of candidates both in the Fifth and statewide.

The retiring Democrat, who first won her seat in 1996, has faced a series of competitive elections throughout her tenure, never winning with more than 57% of the vote and frequently finding the race much closer than that. In 2006, she beat Lake Oswego businessman Mike Erickson by a 54%-43% margin, though Erickson spent an impressive $1.8 million to Hooley's $2 million.

The district is competitive -- President Bush won it both times he ran, though by narrow margins of a little under 5,000 votes each time. National Republicans are excited for Erickson's chances this year; he's raised more than $170,000 so far and maintains over $130,000 cash on hand. Early in the cycle, that's not bad for the relatively inexpensive Portland and Astoria media markets.

The wealthy businessman has also shown a willingness to fund his own campaign, listing nearly $1.6 million in debts and obligations to himself in his year-end FEC reports. If he invests significantly more money in the race, he could outpace other candidates. Erickson will be aided by Senator Gordon Smith, who is running for re-election this year, though potentially wounded by a presidential battle. Once considered a swing state, Oregon is now safely in the Democratic column.

Possible candidates on the Democratic side include Senate President Peter Courtney, State Rep. Brian Clem and State Senator Kurt Schrader, along with his wife, Clackamas County Commissioner Martha Schrader. While Democrats will have to rush to catch up with Erickson on the fundraising front, the seat will not be a blow-out on either side. Both parties have a good chance at what will turn out to be one of the most competitive seats in the country.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink