Conflicting reports about the future of embattled New York Republican Vito Fossella suggest the five-term Congressman either will run for re-election or could resign from office as early as today. Fossella, who was arrested for driving under the influence of alcohol a week and a half ago in Virginia and later admitted to a long affair with a woman with whom he fathered a daughter, has maintained through a spokesperson that he has not decided his future yet.

"I got every indication that he plans to run again," Fossella's political mentor, former Rep. Guy Molinari, told the New York Post. "He's not just inclined to run. He plans on running." Molinari said virtually the same thing to the Staten Island Advance. "Congressman Fossella appreciates the support of so many people, including Guy Molinari, but he has not made any decision yet," said a statement from his crisis communicator early Sunday morning. "And he continues to spend time with his family."

The statements came after Republican leaders showed little sympathy for Fossella, with Minority Leader John Boehner telling the New Yorker to make a decision on his future this weekend. And while the public posturing looks bold, Molinari's comments may just be a trial balloon to see if Fossella can stay in office until his term expires at the end of the year. If Fossella is forced out by July 1, New York Governor David Patterson could call a special election to fill the rest of the unexpired term, with the winner likely heavily favored heading into November.

A special election would allow party leaders in New York to select a candidate to face off. Republicans, the Advance writes, are looking at District Attorney Daniel Donovan, State Senator Andrew Lanza and New York City Councilmember James Oddo; Donovan, who took a call from Boehner and NRCC chair Tom Cole last week, appears to be the favorite. Democrats are eying State Senator Diane Savino, Councilmember Michael McMahon and State Assemblyman Michael Cusick, though Councilmember Domenic Recchia and an attorney are already in the race.

Recchia is from Brooklyn, which only contributes a small number of voters to the mostly Staten Island-based district. Conventional wisdom holds that the best candidate for the seat will come from the population base on the island.

National Republicans don't need another special election, especially one in the New York media market, sapping their coffers. The party has already spent millions unsuccessfully defending seats in Louisiana and Illinois, while also spending money in special elections in Ohio and Virginia. The party has spent more than $1.3 million on a Mississippi seat that will be decided tomorrow, as well. But while Democrats have won in increasingly strong Republican districts, Fossella's is marginal, at best, and the opposing party would have a very real chance of picking it off in an open seat contest.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

After being arrested for driving while intoxicated, New York Congressman Vito Fossella may have a difficult time sticking around, and he could be preparing to announce he will not seek re-election as early as today, the Washington Post's Sleuth writes. Add another headache for beleaguered House Republicans: Fossella's Staten Island district is prime swing territory.

Busted a week ago after running a red light in Alexandria, just outside Washington, Fossella's troubles have only mounted in recent days. After originally telling officers he was on the way to take his daughter to the hospital, Fossella later said he was simply going to visit friends, at 12:15 a.m. He was later sprung from jail by a retired Air Force Lieutenant Colonel, Laura Fay, whose house is just a few miles from where Fossella was pulled over.

Fay divorced, according to The Sleuth, with no children, though she now has a young daughter. The congressman's lead communications expert, who has widely been described as a crisis communicator, has refused to answer questions about whether the girl is Fossella's daughter. Fossella and his wife have three children.

Republican insiders are buzzing at the possibility that Fossella will announce his plans to retire after this Congress, and if he does, the National Republican Congressional Committee will have to add another prime Democratic target to their list of seats to defend. Fossella already trailed in fundraising, with just $248,000 in the bank at the end of March compared with New York City Councilman Domenic Recchia's $325,000, and was likely to face a tough race.

Fossella beat attorney Steve Harrison, who will face Recchia in the state's primary, by a fourteen-point margin in 2006, and his winning percentages have decreased since peaking at 70% in 2002. The district voted for Al Gore over President Bush by eight points in 2000, but favored Bush by ten points in 2004 after his response to the September 11 terrorist attacks.

Democrats may consider a candidate other than Harrison, who has limited fundraising abilities, and Recchia, who represents a city council district in Brooklyn, where the Congressional district takes in just a small piece. But the party has for several cycles coveted the last remaining Republican seat that touches any part of New York City, and should Fossella vacate the position, he will give them their best chance to date.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

The last Republican member of Congress whose district includes any part of New York City was arrested early Thursday morning on suspicion of driving while intoxicated in the Washington suburb of Alexandria, Virginia. Rep. Vito Fossella, whose Thirteenth District includes Staten Island and parts of Brooklyn, will appear in court on May 12 for a hearing.

Fossella's district voted for Al Gore by an eight-point margin in 2000, but in 2004 it gave a ten-point win to President Bush. The seat is heavily ethnic; nearly 30% of the population is of Italian descent. After winning just a 57%-43% margin in 2006 against a Democrat he outspent more than eleven to one, Fossella now finds himself in Democrats' crosshairs.

Steve Harrison, the Democrat who ran in 2006, is making another bid, though national party leaders prefer city councilmember Domenic Recchia. Recchia raised $350,000 through the First Quarter, retaining $325,000 in the bank. Fossella surprised some with a disappointing fundraising quarter, pulling in enough to keep just $248,000 on hand. The incumbent Republican has already spent $615,000 this year, worrying some backers.

Fossella released a statement to some news outlets apologizing for the incident and admitting his error, the Staten Island Advance reported. Whether Democrats use the incident in November, it's not the kind of thing an underfunded incumbent running in what looks like a strong Democratic year needs hanging over his head.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink