Voters in Iowa's Third Congressional District gave Barack Obama a huge boost in his caucus campaign. The Illinois Senator won six of the Des Moines-based district's twelve counties, including Polk County, from which a majority of the votes came; Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, won none of the twelve counties. Obama's theme of "change," it seemed, was in the air.

But the incumbent Democrat, Rep. Leonard Boswell, had thrown his support to Clinton (The state's three Democratic members of Congress each endorsed different presidential candidates), and as has happened in other primary states, that angered at least a few members of the state Democratic Party's liberal wing. After the endorsement, former State Rep. Ed Fallon, who had finished third in the 2006 gubernatorial primary and who seemed to be building a solid base for himself, decided to give the generally more conservative Boswell a credible primary challenger.

A new poll, though, shows that Fallon has some serious work to do in advance of the state's June 3 primary. The survey, taken by Research 2000 for KCCI-TV and KCRG-TV between 4/21-23, surveyed 400 likely Democratic primary voters in the district, for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Boswell and Fallon were tested.

Primary Election Matchup
(All / Men / Wom)
Boswell 52 / 55 / 49
Fallon 28 / 26 / 30

Boswell has a long history of surviving competitive general elections, and his district is one of the most evenly-divided in the nation. He first won election with 49%, beating out a well-funded Republican opponent in an open seat contest. Even as Democrats swept to victory nationwide last year, Boswell managed just a six-point win over State Senator Jeff Lamberti, who at the time served as the co-president in a divided upper chamber.

Whether the more liberal Fallon could hold the district in a normal year, even as moderate Boswell has faced tough races, is an open question. President Bush won a 270-vote majority in the district in 2004, while Al Gore beat him by 1,500 votes in 2000. And Fallon, unlike Boswell, is not a proven fundraiser; Boswell has raised $982,000 through the First Quarter and kept $840,000 in the bank; Fallon managed to pull in just $171,000 and spent most of it, leaving him only $19,000 in reserve.

But should Fallon pull out the upset in the primary, he would probably be the favorite heading into November. The likely GOP challenger, once a top aide to ex-Rep. Greg Ganske, jumped into the contest very late, and hadn't raised money of any significance through March. Then again, if national Republicans see the opportunity to steal a seat in central Iowa, likely to be a battleground state come November, they may pounce at the chance and make sure the Republican, Kim Schmett, is well-funded enough to become a credible challenger.

Obama's message of change may be compelling, and one Democrat -- nonprofit executive Donna Edwards, in Maryland -- has unseated an incumbent by closely mimicking Obama's style and substance. Longtime Rep. John Lewis, of Georgia, even avoided a primary challenge after switching his endorsement to Obama after initially backing Hillary Clinton. But the backlash against pro-Clinton super delegates does not appear to have reached fever pitch: At this point, though, Boswell remains a heavy favorite both in the primary and in the general election as he seeks his seventh term in Congress.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

One might have thought that debate on the Democratic Presidential Primary in Iowa would be over. Yet a brewing Democratic primary in the state's Third District offers a look at how the Presidential race is percolating down to Congressional campaigns across the country. Incumbent Rep. Leonard Boswell, elected in 1996 and a backer of Senator Hillary Clinton, faces his first primary challenge from former state legislator and 2006 Gubernatorial candidate Ed Fallon, who is touting his support of Barack Obama as one among several reasons for why he should be elected as the "change" candidate.

Iowa soil has proven fertile for Democrats. Two of the state's five House seats switched to Democratic control in 2006, Democrat Chet Culver easily won the Gubernatorial election as well, and the presidential caucuses on January 3 saw more than 225,000 Democrats attend. Iowa's Third, based around Des Moines, remains a swing district that Al Gore carried by just one point in 2000 and Bush carried in 2004 by just more than 250 votes. Boswell is again a member of the DCCC's Frontline program, one of just five non-freshmen to make the list.

During his race for governor, Fallon positioned himself left of Culver and of former Rep. Mike Blouin, finishing third. This year, ahead of the state's June 6 primary, Fallon, who won the Third in his failed bid for Governor in 2006, is speaking across the district with messages he says are similar to Obama's.

In an interview with Politics Nation, Fallon emphasized Boswell's support for Clinton, who came in third in Iowa and third in the district. "He's out of step with the district," Fallon said of the incumbent. Fallon is trying to use Obama's success with younger voters to his advantage, claiming the large increase in young voters during the caucuses will help him in a campaign he says also receives large youth support.

As an economic populist Fallon is hammering away at Boswell's acceptance of money from political action committees. "You can't bash PACs and then enlist their support in your campaign", said Fallon. His platform emphasizes the need for changing a government that he says does little about global warming the environment, health care, poverty, and campaign finance reform.

Fallon is playing up the theme of his energetic youth -- at 49 years old -- against the old, establishment politician. While Fallon has said he is not making Boswell's age, 74, an issue, the topic has come up from time to time. Boswell's campaign dismisses any discussion of age, pointing out he is still younger than the state's senior Senator, Republican Chuck Grassley.

Citing rumors that Boswell will retire in the near future, Fallon claims that the redistricting, which will likely strip Iowa of a Congressional seat, will require an established Democratic candidate to run against Republicans Reps. Steve King or Tom Latham in a newly formed district. Boswell's campaign has countered in saying that an independent panel sets district lines and there is no idea what lines will be drawn.

First elected to the House in 1996, Boswell sits on the Agriculture Committee, and has accumulated a moderate voting record. Fallon is attacking him for voting too often with President Bush on issues like the war in Iraq and the Patriot Act. Anticipating being outspent by the entrenched Boswell, Fallon has turned to the netroots for assistance in raising cash.

If Fallon is going to have any chance at all of defeating a long-time incumbent, he is going to need a liberal base to decide on kicking the incumbent out. Obama won Iowa by out-organizing his competition, and Fallon, who is hitching himself to Obama's coattails, could take a page from a successful playbook and follow suit.

-- Greg Bobrinskoy

Posted by Reid Wilson at 02:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink