FL Re-Do Better For GOP
No, not the Florida re-do that's got the Obama and Clinton campaigns' attention. A new poll conducted for the National Republican Congressional Committee shows freshman Republican Vern Buchanan enjoying a significant lead over banker Christine Jennings, the Democrat he beat in 2006.
The race will get more attention than the average rematch this year. Allegations of faulty voting machines that would have propelled Jennings into the House have been lobbed so repeatedly that a special House committee was set up to investigate, though in the end Buchanan's victory was upheld. Jennings, who still feels she was cheated out of a seat in Congress, is trying again.
The survey, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies for the NRCC, polled 400 likely voters between 3/5-6 for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Buchanan and Jennings were tested.
General Election Matchup
Buchanan 53
Jennings 37
Buchanan has used the trappings of incumbency to his advantage. With a 51% approval rating and only 20% who disapprove of his job in Congress, the Republican looks like he's in much better position than he was last year. While some Democrats had hoped that outrage over the 2006 election would help Jennings this year, POS pollster Glen Bolger wrote that is unlikely: "[H]er shenanigans and complaining have hurt Jennings. Verbatims show her image is tarnished and voters hold her accountable for being a sore loser," Bolger wrote in the memo to the NRCC.
Democrats have other targets in Florida, including Rep. Ric Keller and three Cuban American Republicans who hold south Florida seats, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and brothers Mario and Lincoln Diaz-Balart. Too, the DCCC must invest in protecting freshman Democrats Tim Mahoney and Ron Klein. Their decision to make: Should Democrats blanket the entire state with advertisements, or should they prioritize elsewhere?
With so many seats to be contested, Florida is a state that is perhaps most likely to be influenced by the presidential race. With John McCain and one of the two remaining Democrats battling it out in November, added turnout from both parties will be crucial in determining who controls Buchanan's and most of the six or more competitive seats in the Sunshine State.