Musgrave Faces Daunting Challenge
Colorado Republican Rep. Marilyn Musgrave faces yet another strong challenge in her bid to keep the state's Fourth District in Republican hands this year. Musgrave will face Betsy Markey, a small businesswoman and local activist running unopposed in the Democratic Primary after Eric Eidsness, a third-party candidate in 2006 who aided Musgrove's re-election, recently ended a repeat bid.
It would seem that Musgrove, who represents a solidly Republican district, would have little difficulty winning reelection. Yet Musgrave has managed only marginal victories in recent years. She won her seat in 2002 with 55% of the vote after popular Republican Bob Schaffer left the seat in his ultimately failed bid for the Senate. In 2004, facing the same challenger, she was labeled the "one-trick pony" for her anti-same sex marriage focus and squeaked past her opponent with 51% of the vote.
In 2006 she received only 46% of the vote (the lowest reelection percentage of any winning incumbent). Had 3rd party candidate Eric Eidsness not run and taken 11% of the vote away from Musgrave's Democratic rival, Musgrave might well have lost.
And so comes the 2008 campaign, in which Democrats are licking their chops in hopes of knocking off the vulnerable Republican from a GOP district who always seems to get away. A poll conducted in April of last year revealed that only 39% percent of voters wanted Musgrave reelected.
Health care will be the most important issue in the campaign, a less polarizing issue for a Democrat to take up in a Republican district, Markey campaign manager Anne Caprara told Politics Nation. Markey will be heavily criticizing Musgrave for her vote against the State Children's Health Insurance Program, echoing a national theme. Caprara says the other major criticism of Musgrave will be her vote against last year's farm bill, a move that will not play well in the district's eastern, more rural counties. Caprara also points to the district's two large growing counties of Larimer and Weld whose new occupants are predominantly Democratic and Independent voters.
Musgrave is working hard to redefine her image. She is no longer the 'gay marriage' congresswoman but the one visiting local diners focused on the bread and butter issues. Jason Thielman, Musgrave's campaign manager, told Politics Nation that "Betsy will be vulnerable because she has a story but no record. She's in lock step with the very extreme liberal position of Nancy Pelosi, Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama."
While no public polling is available, Musgrave is a member of the NRCC's Regain Our Majority Program, set aside for the most vulnerable incumbents. Her 2006 campaign benefited from $1.8 million in ads from the NRCC, though it's unclear how much of that she will be able to rely on this year.
Through December 31, Musgrave reported her campaign had $760,483 on hand, almost a quarter of a million short of what she had at the same time of the 2006 campaign. Markey is in better shape financially than Musgrave's 2006 opponent was at this time of the campaign. At the end of the fourth quarter, she maintained $286,000 in the bank.
Markey is among those attending a DCCC retreat in Washington, and the campaign committee sees the seat as one of their top pickup opportunities. Like many Democrats running for Congress, Markey is hoping the huge surge in first time voters for the presidential caucuses last month will translate into large turnout for the congressional race in November.
With Eidsness a non-factor this year, Musgrave could be in trouble. If Markey can win big among an expanded Democratic base and pick up significant support from independents, she could very well pull off the upset.
-- Greg Bobrinskoy