As the scandal surrounding VECO Corp. threatens to take down the biggest fish in the state, Senator Ted Stevens, Democrats are also optimistic about their chances to beat Alaska's lone congressman, Republican Don Young. Young has been in office for seventeen full terms, but his bid for an eighteenth could fall short thanks to the problems state Republicans have faced.

The poll, conducted by independent pollster Research 2000 for DailyKos, was conducted 5/12-14 among 600 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Young and former State Rep. Ethan Berkowitz, who leads the Democratic primary, were tested. The survey sample was 32% Republican, 20% Democratic and 48% independent or otherwise affiliated.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Berkowitz 50 / 85 / 18 / 57 / 46 / 54
Young 40 / 6 / 71 / 34 / 45 / 35

If Young is the Republican nominee in November, it is unlikely Republicans will be able to save his seat. Just 38% of Alaskans view him favorably, while 58% say they have an unfavorable impression of him. On the other hand, Berkowitz, the Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2006, is seen in a favorable light by 49% of voters, compared with 23% who think of him unfavorably.

For the GOP, though, there may be hope. Faced with a highly unpopular governor running for re-election in 2006, Alaska Republicans instead nominated a reformist candidate who beat a popular Democrat. Young, too, faces the prospect of losing his primary fight after Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell made his surprise entry into the race last month. State Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux is also running for the Republican nod, and should either score an upset in the August 26 primary, their party might have a much better chance at holding the seat come November.

Berkowitz faces Diane Benson, an activist who has run for several offices before, including against Young, in the Democratic primary. Benson trailed Young by a 57%-40% margin in 2006, though that was the slimmest margin by which the incumbent won since 1994.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

A new survey shows, once again, that Republican Rep. Don Young trails his Democratic challenger and remains in terrible position in his battle for an 18th term in Congress. What makes the survey surprising is that the poll was conducted for a little-known Democrat unlikely to make it through the primary to face Young in November, suggesting Young's electoral position is all that much worse.

The survey, by Alaska-based Hays Research, was conducted 3/10-12 among 401 registered voters for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. The poll was taken on behalf of former state Democratic Party chairman Jake Metcalfe, who, along with Young, was tested.

General Election Matchup
Metcalfe 45
Young 37

Generic Dem 41
Young 34

What the survey doesn't note is that Metcalfe's name identification is likely significantly below that of former State Representative Ethan Berkowitz, the front-runner for the Democratic nomination. Berkowitz, the 2006 Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor, has a statewide profile and has led Young in earlier surveys, while Metcalfe's biggest claim to fame is as state party chair and as former head of the Anchorage School Board.

Ahead of the August 26 primary, Republicans Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell and State Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux will try to convince Alaskans to nominate them over the long-time incumbent, who is embroiled in a scandal involving an oil services company that has already seen several state legislators go to jail. Electability could prove a valuable argument to either candidate, and Alaska Republicans are not completely unwilling to kick out their incumbents: In 2006, now-Governor Sarah Palin ousted GOP incumbent Frank Murkowski by a wide margin. Palin is now backing Parnell in the primary.

But if Parnell can't overcome the Alaska institution that is Don Young, either because he splits the reform vote with LeDoux or the GOP electorate just isn't ready to oust Young, Democrats maintain a strong chance to pick up a House seat in one of the most Republican areas of the country. As the poll suggests, it may not matter that Berkowitz, the party's preferred candidate, make it through to November; with Young as unpopular as he is, any Democrat with a pulse stands a fighting chance.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Alaska Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell will run against long-time Republican Rep. Don Young, the Associated Press reported over the weekend. Parnell, who won election to the LG's office after serving as a state senator and state representative, is the second prominent politician to join the race against Young, whose troubles with an investigation surrounding an oil services company could get worse before they get better.

What separates Parnell and former State Rep. Ethan Berkowitz, another top candidate challenging Young, is that Parnell is part of a new wave of Republicans in the state intent on ridding the Alaska GOP of what they see as a corrupt old boy's club. Parnell was elected on a ticket with Governor Sarah Palin, who in turn cleaned the clock of then-Governor Frank Murkowski, also a Republican, in the 2006 primary.

Young, who has been in office since winning a special election in 1973, has experience chairing the House Resources Committee and the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, and like long-time Republican Senator Ted Stevens, he's steered millions to his home state thanks to his influence on Capitol Hill. Visitors to his posh Rayburn Building office are greeted by a massive bear pelt tacked to the wall.

The idea of facing Parnell is not one that Young likes. After Parnell's announcement, in Anchorage, Young, who had held a press conference earlier, offered a snappy comeback. "I beat your dad and I'm going to beat you," Young said, referring to his Democratic opponent from 1980, who Young bested by a wide margin.

Given recent polling data, though, Young has an uphill battle to fight. A recent poll from the Hays Research Group showed 55% of Alaskans viewed him unfavorably, Politico's Josh Kraushaar reports. The 40% who view him favorably may, though, be enough to get him through the Republican primary on August 26, in which he will face Parnell and State Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux.

The winner of that primary will face the winner of a Democratic primary featuring Berkowitz, former state Democratic Party chair Jake Metcalfe and frequent candidate Diane Benson, who faced Young in the general in 2006. Berkowitz, the former Democratic leader in the State House, is favored to win the primary and, should he face Young, could steal the seat for Democrats; an early December poll showed him leading the incumbent by seven points in a head-to-head matchup.

If Parnell pulls out a GOP primary win, though, Berkowitz may have a tough time in an overwhelmingly Republican state. The last time the two met, in the Lieutenant Governor's race in 2006, the Palin-Parnell ticket beat out their Democratic rivals by about seven points.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

It is not a coincidence that Washington has more lawyers per capita than any other city: They're following the money. One reason ethically challenged members of Congress cling to their offices long after their times have passed is massive legal bills they owe. Those bills can be taken care of using campaign funds.

Despite assurances that he's running for re-election, longtime Alaska Republican Don Young may just be hanging on until he pays off those bills. FEC reports out this morning show Young dropped $590,000 last quarter, much of it on legal fees to two prominent Washington firms. He raised just $43,000, Swing State Project reports, and retains almost $950,000 on hand.

Others under legal scrutiny spent heavily from their campaign treasuries as well. West Virginia Democrat Alan Mollohan, who has been scrutinized for earmarks he's attracted to his district, dished out nearly $25,000 in fees last quarter, while retiring California Republican John Doolittle lists debts of about $120,000 to a northern Virginia law firm and Arizona Republican Rick Renzi owes $106,000 to Patton Boggs.

As long as troubled incumbents can raise money in Washington instead of reaching into their own pockets to satisfy legal debts, they will do so. As FEC reports this month show, it's good to have a campaign account to fall back on.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:45 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Long-time Alaska Republican Rep. Don Young says he's running for reelection this year. The Fairbanks Daily News-Miner reports Young spent the recent congressional recess holding fundraisers in Alaska, and he told the newspaper, "People know I'm back and they know that I'm running."

But if Young is to win an 18th full term in Congress, he will have to defeat challengers who are likely to make an issue of a wide-ranging federal investigation that includes the incumbent. State Representative Gabrielle LeDoux is challenging Young in the August 26 Republican primary. Democrats who have filed for the seat include Alaska House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz, former Alaska Democratic Party Chairman Jake Metcalfe, and Diane Benson, who lost to Young 57%-40% in 2006.

Though he will not release his 4th-quarter fundraising totals until the end of the month, Young retained about $1.5 million at the end of September, far more than Benson or Metcalfe, the only other two candidates who filed 3rd-quarter reports. The DCCC worked hard to recruit Berkowitz, the Democratic Lieutenant Governor nominee in 2006 who led Young by seven points in a December poll.

News of Young's re-election plans cannot be welcome for Alaska Republicans, many of whom have been stung by the investigation surrounding the VECO Corporation, an oil services company whose chief executive, Bill Allen, pleaded guilty to federal bribery charges. Also implicated was Senator Ted Stevens, whose home was raided by the FBI in late 2007, and several current and former state legislators.

Washington Republicans have seen good news lately, both in terms of strong recruitments and decisions by some ethically challenged members, including Arizona Republican Rick Renzi and California's John Doolittle, to step down. Young's decision to stay in can only cause heartburn for the NRCC.

-- Kyle Trygstad

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 04:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

DailyKos is out with another Research 2000 poll today, and the results are not good for Republicans in the great snowy north. R2K tested embattled Republican Sen. Ted Stevens and Rep. Don Young alongside Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich and former House Democratic leader Ethan Berkowitz. Berkowitz has already announced his campaign against Young, while Begich continues to mull a bid against Stevens.

The poll, conducted 12/3-6, surveyed 600 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. The sample reflects the heavily Republican tilt of the state: 33% of those responding were Republicans, compared with just 19% of Democrats. The remaining 48% called themselves independent or identified with another political party.

General Election Matchups
(All / Men / Wom / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Begich 47 / 43 / 51 / 81 / 7 / 55
Stevens 41 / 46 / 36 / 7 / 81 / 35

Berkowitz 49 / 46 / 52 / 83 / 18 / 57
Young 42 / 46 / 38 / 8 / 72 / 35

There's a reason Berkowitz and Begich are out-pacing Young and Stevens: Alaska voters simply don't see the two incumbents in a very favorable light:

Fav/Unfav
Begich 48 / 19
Berkowitz 45 / 18
Young 40 / 54
Stevens 39 / 58

The numbers are pretty incredible: Independents choose both challengers by wide margins, though the state's Republican Party still maintains an incredible size advantage. But there is no guarantee that Young or Stevens will make another bid, or even be the GOP nominee come next year. Facing scandals, Republican Gov. Frank Murkowski looked to present Democrats with a great pick-up opportunity in 2006. That is, until Alaska Republicans did not renominate him, instead choosing Sarah Palin in his place.

Palin went on to win the general election over former Democratic Gov. Tony Knowles, who until Murkowski got routed was the favorite to win the seat. If Republicans choose other candidates over Stevens and Young, they are likely to be rewarded. Barring a new candidate, Democrats have the best chance they've seen in Alaska for more than a generation.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 05:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Congressman Don Young, the long-time sole representative from the Last Frontier, finds himself in some hot water, a new poll shows. Young has been connected to a scandal surrounding VECO Corp., which has led to prosecutions of several state legislators and an FBI raid of Sen. Ted Stevens' Alaska home.

The poll, conducted by Democratic firm Craciun Research Group for 2006 candidate Diane Benson, was conducted 10/27-11/2 among 601 registered voters. The margin of error Benson, Young and former House Democratic Leader Ethan Berkowitz, as well as State Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux, a Republican who is thinking of challenging Young in a primary.

The Democratic primary sample tested Benson, Berkowitz and former Alaska Democratic Party Chair Jake Metcalf. 292 voters who plan to participate in the Democratic primary were surveyed, for a margin of error of approximately +/- 5.7%.

Primary Election Matchup
Berkowitz 29
Benson 21
Metcalf 8

General Election Matchups
Berkowitz 50
Young 35

Benson 45
Young 37

Berkowitz 49
LeDoux 14

Benson 45
LeDoux 12

The incumbent faces a huge uphill battle, but Republicans don't have to despair yet. The status of the race seems familiar; early polls in 2006 showed former Gov. Tony Knowles handily defeating then-Gov. Frank Murkowski. But Knowles lost his comeback bid primarily because Murkowski wasn't his opponent. The scandal-plagued incumbent finished third in his own primary to Sarah Palin, who beat Knowles in November.

If Young is the nominee, Alaska Democrats have a real shot to take back the seat. If another Republican takes his place, the GOP is likely to have a better chance at holding on.

Something to consider as Young and Stevens face re-election next year: After Palin, a decided outsider, knocked off good ol' boy Murkowski, are Alaska voters ready for change regardless of party? The state is still heavily Republican, and the two remaining incumbents could face tough battles in their own primaries.

Murkowski's big problem was nepotism, a charge he endured after appointing his daughter to his old Senate seat. If Alaska Republicans wouldn't stand for that, will they really allow Young and Stevens, tainted by a corruption investigation, to continue as their nominees?

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Veteran Alaska pollster Ivan Moore today gave more credence to the theory that Alaska voters are ready for a change. While Gov. Sarah Palin (R) turned former Gov. Frank Murkowski (R) out of office in 2006, few thought that long-time Sen. Ted Stevens and Rep. Don Young, two Alaska institutions, could possibly be in trouble.

Moore's poll shows former State Representative Ethan Berkowitz, a Democrat, leading Young in the race for Congress. The poll, conducted just after Berkowitz announced his entry in the race for the Democratic-leaning Swing State Project, surveyed 497 voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4%.

Positive/Negative
Young 43 / 50
Berkowitz 42 / 17

General Election Matchup
Berkowitz 51
Young 45.5
Other/undec 3.5

Cross-tabs show 35% of voters are strongly for Berkowitz, while just 19% are strongly for Young. Alaska voters, of course, are heavily Republican, though Democrats have to be ecstatic that Berkowitz begins not only with a lead, but with a lead over 50%. Party registration in the poll shows just 17% of the state's voters are Democrats, while 32% are Republican. 51% are independents or no registered party.

With a Democrat on the presidential ticket, or facing a candidate other than Young, Republicans remain the favorite in the race for the Last Frontier. But with Young on the ticket, and because Berkowitz has gotten an early and impressive start, Democrats believe they maintain a strong chance to pick up the seat.

Update: Politico's John Bresnahan reports Young's 3rd quarter FEC reports show he spent more than $180,000 on attorneys, more than he raised in the entire quarter. Young maintains a total of $1.65 million cash on hand, and has raised more than $600,000 for the cycle.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:15 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Former State Representative Ethan Berkowitz today announced his plans to run against Alaska Congressman Don Young, the Republican who has represented the state in the House since 1973. Young has been associated with scandals currently roiling Alaska's Republican Party, and is widely considered to be thinking about retiring.

Despite his long history of bringing home the bacon for Alaska, Young won re-election last year with just 56% against an opponent who once ran for governor on the Green Party line. Berkowitz, the Democratic candidate for Lieutenant Governor in 2006, wins high praise from national Democrats, who see the seat as a possible pickup.

The move also means another Democratic recruitment target will be free for Senate Democrats. With scandal surrounding Senator Ted Stevens, Democrats smell an open seat. The DSCC has long sought to recruit Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, seen as the most popular Democrat in the state, to run either against the weakened incumbent or for an open seat.

Begich has yet to make a decision on the Senate race. National Democrats are said to covet his entry into the race, and rumor had it he and Berkowitz were deciding between themselves which would enter the House race and which would go for Stevens' seat. If Begich enters the Senate race, the DSCC and the DCCC will have scored major recruiting coups.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink