As we wrote on Monday, Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright's entry into the race to replace retiring Republican Rep. Terry Everett gives Democrats hope in one of the most ruby-red areas in the country. A poll taken in October for the DCCC and released this week shows just how strong that hope should be.

The survey, conducted by Democratic firm Anzalone Liszt Research, an Alabama-based firm that has a long history of contracting with the DCCC, surveyed 400 likely voters between 10/2-4 for a margin of error of +/- 5%. Along with Bright, the poll tested State Rep. Jay Love and State Senator Harri Anne Smith, both Republicans.

General Election Matchups
Bright 43
Smith 38

Bright 46
Love 27

Bright's biggest benefit, Roll Call's John McArdle reports, is his home base. The Montgomery media market will cover about 60% of the district's voters, and Bright's high name recognition there will give him a leg up on Smith, Love or any of the other Republicans seeking the seat. Bright also boasts a high favorable rating in the area.

Still, the poll shows Bright under 50% against both Republicans, and in a long race, especially with a presidential contest at the top of the ticket, the GOP maintains an excellent chance at retaining the seat. The district is more than 29% African American, and while President Bush won by huge margins near 30 points both times he ran, it will be interesting to note black turnout this November.

If Barack Obama heads the Democratic ticket, Alabama's Second District could be one of a few he helps bring with him. If turnout among African Americans is up big, Bright has more than a fighting chance.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

When Rep. Terry Everett, an eight-term Republican from southeast Alabama, announced he would not run for re-election next year, Democrats crowed that yet another House Republican was abandoning ship. Still, few but the most optimistic Democrats thought the party had a realistic chance of taking the seat, which favored President Bush by 34 points in 2004 and by 23 in 2000. In fact, no Democrat has held the seat since 1965.

But tomorrow, Democrats will get a serious candidate when Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright makes his campaign official, the Montgomery Advertiser and the Associated Press report. Bright won re-election in 2006 by a wide 58%-33% margin, and in representing the state's second-largest city, he brings a solid electoral foundation to the race.

The district, which stretches from Montgomery south to the border with the Florida panhandle, includes most of the city, which has a population of just over 200,000, as well as several counties where African Americans make up a majority of the voting population -- they comprise nearly 30% of the district as a whole. Still, more conservative areas toward the south-central section of the state make up the bulk of the district's voters.

Bright will head to heavily Republican territory to make his announcement, speaking in Ozark, in the southeast corner of the state, at the Dale County Courthouse. His family, Bright said, comes from the area, where he grew up, and he told local media he wanted to make his announcement surrounded by family and friends.

The only trouble Everett ever faced was in his first election, in 1992, when he took just 49% of the vote against two candidates, one of whom was George C. Wallace, the former governor's son. In subsequent re-election bids, Everett never dipped below 63%. Bright may benefit, though, because the Mayor's office in Montgomery is non-partisan, meaning at least a few Republican voters in the district are used to casting ballots for him.

Still, the crowded Republican field is likely to produce a candidate who should be considered the favorite. State Reps. David Grimes and Jay Love are already in the race, as is State Senator Harri Anne Smith. Smith and Grimes have yet to file with the FEC, and Love loaned his campaign $300,000 and raised an additional $70,000 through December. Republicans will face off in the state's June 3 primary.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink