A new poll conducted for CBS News and the New York Times shows that as Democrats rack up huge fundraising advantages, the public favors the party in congressional elections by margins as wide as before the landslide 2006 elections. The survey showed 50% of respondents favoring a generic Democratic candidate, while 32% said they preferred the Republican candidate.

That eighteen-point gap is the same as the last CBS/NYT poll taken before the 2006 elections, conducted in late October of that year. Democrats now lead the RCP Generic Ballot Average by 13 points, two points higher than the final pre-election average.

Republicans acknowledge the challenge that lies ahead of them, but the party is still staying optimistic. House GOP leader John Boehner laid out his read on the November contests for colleagues at a Republican caucus meeting Wednesday, in a presentation colleagues called hopeful, but realistic.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Chapter eleven in our look at FEC reports from around the country takes us to one state where Democrats had a very good year in 2006 and one they hope to have a good year in 2008. Three Democrats stole GOP-held seats in Indiana, and this year two of the party's top targets are in neighboring Michigan. (We know Indiana only barely touches Lake Michigan, but just go with it, we're running out of names) The races that we're watching:

Michigan 07: Three different members of Congress, all Republicans, have held the south-central district in the past three terms. After Rep. Nick Smith retired, moderate Republican Joe Schwarz beat a crowded field of conservatives and served one term starting in 2007, before the third-place finisher from 2006, Tim Walberg, came roaring back to beat Schwarz in a primary with significant help from the Club for Growth. Now, Democrats think Walberg is too conservative for the district, and State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer is making a run to be the fourth member in four terms from the Battle Creek area. Schauer has outraised Walberg, pulling in $904,000 and keeping $751,000 on hand, while the incumbent raised $829,000 through March and still has $604,000 left over.

Michigan 09: Closer to Detroit, eight-term Republican Rep. Joe Knollenberg faced an unexpectedly tough challenge in 2006, giving Democrats the hint that the right candidate might knock him off in a district that gave President Bush just 51% of the vote in two consecutive elections. The party recruited former state lottery commissioner Gary Peters to take on Knollenberg in the district just north of Detroit, which includes Pontiac, and it turns out to have been a wise financial move. Peters raised $750,000 when the First Quarter tallies were finished, and ended the quarter with $644,000 in the bank. Knollenberg will be better financed than his colleague Walberg, though; after March, he had $1.33 million cash on hand after raising $1.85 million so far, more than he spent during the entire 2004 campaign.

Indiana 02: Joe Donnelly, the candidate thought to have the longest shot to knock off an incumbent of any of the three Indiana Democratic challengers in 2006, still pulled out a win that year, beating Republican Rep. Chris Chocola. Donnelly will defend his seat, based along the state's northern border with Michigan and including South Bend south to Kokomo, from businessman Luke Puckett, who just recently jumped in the race. Because Indiana's primary is coming up on May 13, candidates don't have to file until tonight at midnight. We'll update the numbers when they're available, but through the end of December Donnelly raised $1.1 million and has kept $713,000 in the bank.

Indiana 07: Based in Indianapolis, the Seventh District came open late last year with the passing of Rep. Julia Carson, and last month Carson's grandson Andre kept the seat in Democratic hands. But Carson could face a hurdle in the May 13 primary, when he faces a well-funded challenger who has been climbing in recent polls. Democrat Woody Myers, the former state health commissioner, has raised and spent $705,000 through March 31, including $550,000 of his own money, virtually even with Carson's $740,000 raised. Carson still had $93,000 in the bank as of the first day in April, and he's likely increased that number since coming to Washington. Republicans were attracted to State Rep. Jon Elrod as a candidate, but Elrod only raised $192,000 for the special election, leaving some in the GOP disappointed.

Indiana 09: In baseball, the third game of a three-game split series is called the rubber match. In Indiana's Ninth District, Democratic Rep. Baron Hill will face trucking executive Mike Sodrel a fourth consecutive time, and we're not sure what that's called. Hill has won twice, in 2002 and 2006, while Sodrel took the seat in 2004. Hill had raised $1.13 million through the end of the year and kept $862,000 on hand, while Sodrel has yet to file his paperwork. When these two candidates report tonight, we'll be sure to update the figures in what is going to be another of the great races of 2008. There is little love lost between the old foes, and the race promises to be bitter and expensive.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Getting close to the end of our exhaustive look at the hot House races, and we're swinging back to the Great Lakes region, where hot races in Wisconsin and Illinois are going to hold our attention through November. The races to learn and love:

Wisconsin 08: In conversations with Republican strategists, most say that former Wisconsin Assembly Speaker John Gard is the candidate who most should have won his race in 2006. Instead, Gard lost to Democrat Steve Kagen. Kagen had a tough first year, but he's raised an impressive amount of money so far. Kagen pulled in $1.07 million through the first quarter and retained $760,000 million for his battle in November. Kagen still owes himself $469,000 from his last race. Gard, running again, raised $555,000 through March and still has $427,000 left. Gard will benefit from a heavy turnout for John McCain, but Kagen pulled out one surprise already and he might just do so again.

Illinois 08: Freshmen Democrats looking for a key to surviving their first re-election bid can take cues from Melissa Bean, who beat a long-time incumbent Phil Crane in 2004 and survived a wealthy self-funder in 2006. This year, she faces another wealthy businessman, Steve Greenberg. Greenberg has already given his own committee close to $100,000, and has raised $522,000, but after taking the whole month of March off, he's down to just $5,000 in the bank, and his campaign manager just quit. Bean has raised $2.22 million so far, and she still has $1.35 million on hand. Bean first won the district as President Bush carried it by twelve points, and with Barack Obama on the ballot this year, Republicans might have to wait two more years to give Bean another strong challenge.

Illinois 10: Republicans lost a huge number of suburban seats in 2006 despite the best efforts of Rep. Mark Kirk, who tried to warn his fellows of the danger they faced. Kirk himself beat a surprisingly strong Democrat by just six points that year, and this time around he will again face marketing executive Dan Seals in November. Kirk has already banked a whopping $2.95 million, through March, and he still has $2.25 million in the bank. Seals had a somewhat competitive primary, but of the $1.42 million he's raised through the First Quarter, he still has $745,000 on hand. Kirk is another paranoid incumbent, so he's not going to be taken by surprise, but this northern Chicago suburb could be in danger anyway.

Illinois 11: Republicans thought they had a good candidate to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Weller, until that candidate proved unable to raise money and was uninterested enough to simply drop out. Now, Republicans have fielded wealthy businessman Martin Ozinga, though he has yet to begin raising money. Ozinga will face State Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson, who has already raised $861,000 and still has $673,000 left in cash. Not only will Ozinga have catching up to do, but national Democrats have already hammered him for his business dealings. If Ozinga doesn't respond by defining himself soon, Democrats will remain strong favorites to pick up this seat based largely southwest of Chicago.

Illinois 14: Former Speaker Dennis Hastert was replaced by Democrat Bill Foster in a special election in early March, and a rematch in November will again pit Foster against Republican Jim Oberweis, a candidate many in his own party blamed for losing the seat. Both candidates spent more than $3 million in their bids, and both have a long way to go to rebuild their war chests. Foster had $262,000 in the bank after March, while Oberweis had $132,000 lying around. In three previous contests, Oberweis has had to largely self-fund, and if donors don't kick in contributions now, he will start writing his own checks again.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:15 AM | Email Author | Permalink

The northern Rocky Mountain and Plains states, stretching from Idaho to Montana and the Dakotas, won't offer much in the way of interesting House races this year as most incumbents are going to win easily. But circling back to the upper Mississippi Valley, both parties have opportunities in our twelfth installment of a look at interesting FEC reports:

-- Minnesota 01: After being kicked out of a rally for President Bush in 2004, Democrat Tim Walz decided to run for Congress and pulled off a surprise upset of GOP incumbent Gil Gutknecht. The district, which takes up the entire southern border of the state, voted narrowly for President Bush twice, but Walz has raised $1.6 million to keep his seat and retains just over $1 million in the bank. His main opponents have much smaller bank accounts after battling for the GOP nod; Republican activist Brian Davis, a doctor at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester who won the party's nomination, has raised $222,000 and still has $50,000 in the bank, while State Senator Dick Day has raised $226,000 and retained just $72,000. They will face each other in the primary in September. The winner will face a steep climb against Walz in November, but the Republican National Convention could provide the victor a good opportunity to raise a lot of money.

-- Minnesota 03: Retiring Republican Jim Ramstad, who represents the northern, western and southern suburbs of Minneapolis, leaves a toss-up seat open to challenge this year. Democrats had recruited State Senator Terri Bonoff, but a convention victory for newcomer Ashwin Madia, a Democratic activist, and Bonoff's concession left Minnesota political watchers shocked. Madia has raised $362,000 through the end of march, more than $100,000 less than Bonoff, and retained $190,000 in the bank. He will face Republican State Rep. Erik Paulsen, who has a much bigger war chest of $688,000 after raising a total of $772,000. The district could be trending Democratic, but Paulsen is said to be a good candidate and his fundraising head start could be tough for Madia to overcome.

-- Minnesota 06: One of just thirteen Republican freshmen elected in 2006, Michelle Bachmann won an eight-point victory over children's advocate Patty Wetterling two years ago. Wetterling may not have been the best candidate against Bachmann, and this year Democrats are excited for their original first choice to take on the incumbent, former State Transportation Commissioner Elwyn Tinklenberg, who raised $260,000 through March and has about $102,000 in the bank. Attorney Bob Olson is also running, and he raised $268,000 through the same period while keeping $112,000 on hand. Bachmann has pulled in $1.5 million so far and retains $1 million for later. Bachmann is a heavy favorite, but in a wave election she could face a touch race.

-- Iowa 03: One of the top-ranking Democrats on the House Agriculture Committee, Democrat Leonard Boswell has faced some tough re-election fights in his Des Moines-based district. This year, his challenge comes from the left, as one-time State Rep. Ed Fallon, who finished third in the gubernatorial primary in 2006, is making a bid arguing that Boswell is not liberal enough. Ahead of the June 3 primary, Boswell has pulled in $982,000 and kept $841,000 on hand, while Fallon has raised $171,000 and spent all but $19,700. Former Hill staffer Kim Schmett will be the Republican nominee, but he's raised virtually no money yet. Most likely, this race will be decided in the primary.

-- Missouri 06: Though Republican Sam Graves has had a generally easy time winning re-election, he hasn't faced very many well-financed challengers in his suburban and exurban Kansas City district. This year, that changes. While Graves has raised an impressive $1.57 million and still has $1.13 million in the bank, former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes finished the quarter with $1.4 million raised and $954,000 left over. President Bush won the seat by fifteen points in 2004, but national Democrats are excited at the prospect that Barnes presents. Graves' strong fundraising performance shows he's not taking the race for granted. National Democrats could spend a significant amount of money on the seat after finally convincing Barnes, whom they've been chasing for years, to make a bid.

-- Missouri 09: When Republican Kenny Hulshof decided to make a run for governor, strong candidates on both sides started scrambling to replace him in his northeast Missouri district. Four top candidates on each side are running for the seat, and at the moment State Reps. Bob Onder, a Republican, and Judith Baker, a Democrat, are leading the pack with $370,000 and $216,000 raised, respectively. Onder gave his campaign $250,000, and he retains $369,000 on hand, while Baker has $188,000 left over. Democrats are also excited about former State House Speaker Robert Gaw, who raised $110,000 and still has $102,000 left over. Republicans are also eying former State Tourism Director Blaine Luetkemeyer, State Rep. Danie Moore and former professional football player and Mizzou star Brock Olivo. None of the top Republicans have raised more than $100,000.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink

We're on to the eleventh installment of our comprehensive look at the fun races in 2008, and throughout the districts in states that touch the Pacific Ocean -- 70 combined in California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska and Hawaii -- just five look like they might be serious contests. A quick scan of the West Coast:

-- California 04: Buffeted by investigations into his association with convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff, Republican Rep. John Doolittle survived 2006 by just three points. Now that he's retiring, retired Air Force officer Charlie Brown, Doolittle's 2006 Democratic foe, faces a steeper climb against the winner of an increasingly nasty Republican primary. Brown has raised $952,000 and still has $590,000 in the bank, but he may need more than that to win a district President Bush carried by twenty-four points in 2004. He will face either former Rep. Doug Ose, who has $845,000 in the bank after raising $3.25 million -- including a $400,000 transfer from his old congressional account and more than $800,000 in loans to his own campaign -- or State Senator Tom McClintock, who has raised $315,000 and still has $125,000 left in the bank in advance of the state's June 3 primary. The bizarre irony: Ose lives in the neighboring district, and McClintock's house is in his State Senate district, 400 miles south.

-- California 11: Outside interest groups concerned with the environment played a key role in ousting Republican Rep. Richard Pombo in 2006, when Democrat Jerry McNerney beat the incumbent by six points. Republicans now see the seat, which includes Stockton and parts of San Joaquin, Alameda and Santa Clara Counties and a fraction of Contra Costa County outside of Oakland, as one of their best pickup opportunities, and former State Assemblyman Dean Andal as one of their best candidates in the country. Andal has raised $638,000 for his challenger bid, with $531,000 left on hand. McNerney raised $2.4 million for his 2006 race, and has already pulled in $1.64 million this year. He ended the quarter with $1.15 million in the bank, but McNerney could face an uphill battle in a district that is likely to back John McCain.

-- Oregon 05: South and west of Portland, Democrats are playing a rare game of defense in an open seat after Rep. Darlene Hooley's health problems forced her to retire. Businessman Mike Erickson, who narrowly lost to Hooley in 2006, is already up with television ads after raising $634,000 and retaining $332,000. Erickson will face former state Republican Party chair Kevin Mannix, a former GOP gubernatorial nominee, in the state's May 20 primary. Mannix kicked off his campaign last month and has raised $109,000 with $66,000 in the bank. Democrats have recruited State Senator Kurt Schrader, who raised just $56,000 in the little more than a month he's been in the race, but he kept all but $34 of that money. He will face Steve Marks, who served as chief of staff to former Democratic Governor John Kitzhaber, in the primary; Marks has raised $26,000 and has $18,000 in the bank.

-- Washington 08: Republican Rep. Dave Reichert is running for his third term, and he's never had an easy contest. This year could be even more difficult, as Reichert will face Democrat Darcy Burner for a second time. In 2006, Reichert won by just 7,000 votes as the two candidates spent virtually identical amounts. This year, Burner is actually outraising Reichert, with $1.396 million raised and $921,000 left over. Reichert has raised $1.37 million and is keeping $698,000 in reserve. Netroots activists are helping Burner, a leader of a move by some Democratic challengers to focus most on the war in Iraq, but Reichert remains popular for his service as King County Sheriff. The second meeting of these two strong candidates will be one of the closest races in the country.

-- Alaska At-Large: Alaska Republican Don Young, who has represented his state in Washington for 17 terms, faces two tough contests this year as he finds himself involved in an investigation over an oil services company that has already seen several members of the state legislature head to jail. Young has raised $834,000 so far this cycle and has $604,000 in the bank, but he's spent nearly $2.1 million in the past fifteen months, much of it on attorneys' fees. In the primary, Young will face Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell, who announced in late March he will run and has raised $26,000 and spent about $225 so far. Democrats will throw former State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz at the winner of the primary; Berkowitz has raised $401,000 since jumping in the race and retains $287,000. If Young survives the primary, watch for Democrats to spend heavily on the state.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Part ten in our series of House races we're likely to be watching six months from now heads to John McCain's backyard, where Republicans are thrilled to have some help at the top of the ticket. McCain's coattails, should they extend far enough, could help his party take back the two seats they lost in Arizona in 2006, but strong Democratic candidates aren't going to let it happen that easily. The races to watch in Arizona and Nevada:

-- Arizona 01: Thirty-five felony counts is a great way to convince an incumbent to retire from office, and that's just what Republican Rep. Rick Renzi plans to do. Democrats recruited former State Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, who has raised $660,000 and still has $465,000 in the bank, to try to win this district that sprawls from the Four Corners along the New Mexico border, on the eastern half of the state, and even includes some communities south of Phoenix. Kirkpatrick will have to get past activist Howard Shanker, who has raised $137,000 and maintains just $34,000 on hand, and former television anchor Mary Kim Titla, who pulled in $169,000 and kept $48,000 in reserve. Republicans have missed the opportunity to recruit nearly a dozen candidates, and at the moment trade association president Sydney Hay looks like the GOP's best shot. Hay raised $268,000 through March and still has $222,000 in the bank.

-- Arizona 03: After being petitioned by colleagues to seek another term, Republican Rep. John Shadegg has reconsidered an earlier decision not to run in 2008. He will face attorney Bob Lord, a Democrat who has raised an impressively large sum of money -- $832,000 through March, with $632,000 left over -- in a district encompassing many of Phoenix's northeast suburbs. Shadegg, who NRCC chair Tom Cole describes as a "paranoid incumbent," is taking nothing for granted and has already raised $1.24 million with $937,000 left in the bank. A poll taken for Shadegg that he referenced in his initial withdrawal statement showed him up by a hefty 30-some point margin, but the race could get pricey come the Fall.

-- Arizona 05: When he beat Republican Rep. J.D. Hayworth in 2006, Democrat Harry Mitchell became the only freshman to chair a subcommittee in the 110th Congress. But despite his position on the Veterans Affairs Committee, Mitchell is going to face one of several strong challengers this year, and he knows it. Mitchell has already raised $1.36 million and retains $1.1 million. The front-running Republican, at the moment, is former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert, who has raised $681,000 and still has $514,000 in the bank. Former lobbyist Jim Ogsbury is in second, with $427,000 raised and $353,000 on hand, while two state representatives seem to be underperforming; Laura Knapereck has raised just $100,000 and has $44,000 on hand, while Mark Anderson has raised $55,000 and retains $70,000. Both Ogsbury and Schweikert have given themselves $250,000 in seed money. The district, based in Tempe and Scottsdale, leans Republican, and should lean more so with McCain at the head of the ticket, but Mitchell is hugely popular and starts at a big advantage.

-- Arizona 08: After defeating a very conservative Republican to steal a GOP open seat in 2006, Rep. Gabrielle Giffords has proven one of the most prolific fundraisers in the Democratic freshman class. She's raised $1.9 million so far this year, with $1.67 million left in the bank to help her preserve her hold on the Tucson-based seat. Republicans were excited to recruit State Senate President Tim Bee, but after a slow fundraising start some of that enthusiasm slowed. Bee came roaring back in the First Quarter and now has a substantial bank account, with $752,000 raised and $525,000 cash on hand. This race feels like a tipping-point election: If Giffords survives this year, she will likely be safe for most of her career. If it's a close race, watch the GOP continue to target the seat for years to come.

-- Nevada 02: Freshman Republican Dean Heller -- one of just 13 GOP freshmen elected in 2006 -- won a narrow victory in a district that covers virtually the entire state of Nevada outside of Las Vegas-based Clark County. He defeated Democrat Jill Derby by just five points in a seat President Bush carried by sixteen points in 2004, and this year the two will face each other again. While they spent about the same amount of money last time, this year Heller has raised $980,000 and still has $808,000 in the bank, though he carries a substantial $370,000 debt. Derby lags far behind, with $143,000 raised and $133,000 left over. Heller should be safe this year, but Derby could make this a race.

-- Nevada 03: Shaped like a giant Y and based in Henderson, the Third District is where a Democratic presidential candidate can win Nevada's electoral votes -- Al Gore won the district by 1,000 votes, while President Bush won it in 2004 by just 4,000 votes. Republican Rep. Jon Porter fended off a former aide to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid by 4,000 votes in 2006 after outspending her two-to-one, and this year Porter is facing another tough race. He will likely face Robert Daskas, the chief deputy district attorney in Clark County, who has raised $584,000 and still has $453,000 in the bank. Porter has raised $1.64 million this year and retains $1.03 million left to spend. Daskas will have to get past accountant Andrew Martin in the Democratic primary; though national Democrats clearly prefer Daskas, Martin has raised a not-insignificant $378,000 with $204,000 still in the bank.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Democrats are hoping a seismic shift in the Mountain West will propel them to both bigger majorities after this year as well as control of the White House. To find the new electoral votes and the hot races, they need look first to the Rocky Mountains, as hot races from Wyoming through Colorado and into New Mexico offer promising opportunities. But the road won't be easy, given the quality of some Republican candidates.

In our eighth installment of the series, we take a look at six seats stretching from Yellowstone to Roswell, and virtually everywhere in between.

New Mexico 01: Republican Heather Wilson is universally considered to be one of the best campaigners in the country, and her departure to run for Senate, leaving a seat that gave both Al Gore and John Kerry narrow wins, initially stung the GOP. But one of the party's top recruits, Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White, is said to be as talented as Wilson, and given that he has been elected by a large portion of the Albuquerque-based seat, he starts with better name recognition than any of his rivals. White has raised $446,000 and has $297,000 cash on hand. His likely opponent, Albuquerque City Councilman Martin Heinrich, has pulled in $666,000 so far and retains $342,000 in the bank. Heinrich will have to get past former state aging secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham, who has raised $224,000 and still has $139,000 left. No matter which candidate faces White, they could face an uphill battle.

New Mexico 02: Wilson isn't the only Republican member of Congress running for Senate. Her colleague Steve Pearce is running as well, and his southern New Mexico district presents Democrats with an outside shot to pick up a seat as well. A large Republican field is fighting for the nomination, and restaurateur Ed Tinsley leads the way with $613,000 raised and $425,000 on hand, including a $200,000 loan to his own campaign. Retired banker Aubrey Dunn is not far behind, with $410,000 raised so far and $287,000 left over, though more than $300,000 of the total is his own money. Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman loaned himself $100,000 and has raised $295,000 with $206,000 left over. On the Democratic side, former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague has $336,000 on hand after raising $579,000, more than $200,000 of it his own money, while Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley has pulled in $357,000 with $235,000 left over. Both nominees will likely be well-funded, and though President Bush won the seat by seventeen points in 2004, an increased Hispanic alliance with Democrats -- they make up 47% of the district's residents -- could spell a pickup opportunity.

Colorado 02: Another House seat opened by an incumbent running for the Senate, the race to replace Democratic Rep. Mark Udall will be all but decided in the Democratic primary. Three well-funded candidates are vying to win the nomination in the Boulder-based district to the north and west of Denver. Former State Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald has raised $1.13 million to date and has $574,000 laying around for later. Wealthy businessman Jared Polis has raised $1.64 million, more than $600,000 of it from his own wallet, and has $322,000 left over. And Will Shafroth, the director of the State Conservation Trust, has raised $1.03 million and has $682,000 cash on hand. All told, the August 12 primary could be the most expensive in the country this year. Both John Kerry and Al Gore won the district by wide margins, and no Republican has even filed for the seat yet.

Colorado 04: It is rare for a multi-term incumbent to have a smaller margin in every one of her races, but somehow Republican Marilyn Musgrave, who represents much of the eastern half of Colorado, has pulled it off. Musgrave won her initial election with 55%, then won re-election with 51% in 2004. In 2006, against another strong Democratic opponent, she won a third term with just 46% of the vote, three points more than her opponent. This year, Musgrave has raised an impressive $1.38 million and keeps just over $1 million on hand after March. Her Democratic opponent, Betsy Markey, a former aide to Senator Ken Salazar, has hauled in $594,000 and still has $376,000 left to spend. Though it is a solidly Republican district and the presidential race will help Musgrave, she still faces another tough fight.

Colorado 05: Like Udall's Second District, the Fifth, based around Colorado Springs south of Denver, will probably be decided in the primary, though this time it will be the Republican contest to watch. Rep. Doug Lamborn won a bitterly contested primary by just 900 votes in 2006, with just 27% of the vote. The second-place finisher, former Congressional aide and Chamber of Commerce official Jeff Crank, is running again and has raised $203,000 to unseat the incumbent. He retains $130,000 cash on hand. Lamborn isn't exactly knocking people's socks off, having raised just $340,000 through March and retaining only $179,000 in the bank. One hitch in Crank's plans will come from retired Air Force Major General Bentley Rayburn (the Air Force Academy is located inside the district), who finished third in the 2006 primary and wants another crack at the seat himself. Rayburn has raised $194,000 and still has $112,000 in the bank. The Democrat who has raised the most so far has managed just over $5,000.

Wyoming At-Large: It is a rare occurrence when a retirement means the incumbent party actually has a better chance of holding a seat, but that's what's happened in Wyoming, where seven-term Republican Barbara Cubin is stepping down. Plagued by health issues, Cubin also made waves when she threatened to slap an opponent in 2006 (The reason she didn't: He was in a wheel chair). She beat her Democratic rival, Gary Trauner, by just over 1,000 votes that year. This time, Trauner is running again, and he's raised an impressive $648,000 and kept $550,000 in the bank. He will likely face either State Treasurer Cynthia Loomis, who had pulled in $170,000 through March 31 and kept $140,000 on hand, or rancher and businessman Mark Gordon, who pulled in $412,000 and has only $86,000 left over. That amount includes nearly $300,000 from Gordon's own pocketbook. Heavy Republican turnout for John McCain should help the eventual Republican nominee, but Trauner could still steal the seat away.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 02:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Our seventh installment in a comprehensive look at House races we'll be paying attention to heads to an amalgamation of the New South, in Texas, the classic Dust Bowl of Oklahoma (Well, there aren't any good races in Oklahoma this year, but it's right in the middle) and a piece of the Great Plains, in Kansas, where Republicans might actually have reason to be optimistic. Our five races to watch, from the Rio Grande to the amber waves of grain:

Texas 07: Representing a district on the west side of Houston, Republican John Culberson is a likely bet for re-election. The district, which descends from the first seat George H.W. Bush represented in the House, voted heavily for his son, and Culberson has generally been re-elected by wide margins. But having outspend his opponent about six-to-one in 2006, Culberson won 59% of the vote, a surprisingly weak margin. Now, Culberson has raised $589,000 and has only $270,000 on hand, while his opponent, Democratic businessman Michael Skelly, has raised an impressive $853,000 and retains $666,000 in the bank. An early December poll conducted for Skelly showed him trailing by 19 points, and Culberson remains a strong favorite to keep his seat. But with so much money in the bank, Skelly could at least make life uncomfortable for the incumbent.

Texas 22: It may have been easy running against Rep. Tom DeLay, but Democrat Nick Lampson didn't get to do so. Instead, in 2006, Lampson ran against a write-in candidate with a difficult last name to spell and only won by ten points. Republicans got their favored candidate this year, former John Cornyn chief of staff Pete Olson, when he beat out that hard-to-spell candidate, Shelley Sekula Gibbs, in a runoff. Olson's treasury was drained to just $127,000 through the end of March (It's probably lower now, after the early April runoff) but he has plenty of time to raise more, and Olson has shown promise, already pulling in a total of $893,000, aided by $175,000 from his own pocket. Lampson will have the financial edge, though, having already banked about $1.35 million and with just over $1 million on hand. Still, Olson has one of the strongest shots of any Republican to pick up a Democratic-held seat.

Texas 23: One of the geographically biggest Congressional districts in the country, the Twenty Third District stretches from the El Paso suburbs along the Rio Grande and the U.S.-Mexican border. Democrat Ciro Rodriguez, a former member of Congress who once lost his seat, beat out Republican Henry Bonilla in a December runoff in 2006. Rodriguez has raised $1.6 million this cycle, part of which includes money spent on the runoff, and retained $932,000 through March. His leading opponent, Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson, raised $272,000 and spent much of it to end the quarter with just $60,000 in the bank. Larson will have to win in a 65% Hispanic district, but one that gave President Bush a 57%-43% majority in 2004. That's a tall order, but if Larson's fundraising picks up, Rodriguez could face a tough fight.

Kansas 02: Nancy Boyda provided one of the biggest surprises of the 2006 Democratic landslide when she unseated Rep. Jim Ryun, a well-known and well-funded Republican, by a 51%-47% margin. Despite her refusal to allow the DCCC to aid her fundraising efforts, Boyda has raised an impressive $992,000 and kept $811,000 in the bank. Ryun, not content to let his old seat go, is running again in the eastern district, which includes Manhattan and Topeka, and he's raised an even better $1.2 million so far, with $459,000 in the bank. Ryun has spent so much because he first has to get by State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins, a more moderate Republican who has raised $622,000 and kept $486,000 on hand. The winner of the August 5 Republican primary, though, will have an excellent shot against Boyda in a district that gave President Bush a 20-point margin in 2004 and is likely to do the same for John McCain.

Kansas 03: A perpetual GOP target, the Kansas City-based Third District is home to Rep. Dennis Moore, a Democrat who has survived tight battle after tight battle until 2006, when he won by a two-to-one margin. Moore will likely face State Senator Nick Jordan this year, a Republican who has raised $388,000 and still has $307,000 in the bank. He'll have to do better than that to oust Moore, who has hauled in $982,000 and kept $889,000 on hand. If Republicans somehow find themselves in better financial position down the road, be it this year or next cycle, Moore will once again be on the target list. But if he can duplicate his performance from 2006 over a much stronger challenger, Moore may be in a position to own the seat for life.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Despite a dinner hosted by President Bush on behalf of the National Republican Congressional Committee, an event that pulled in $8.6 million in pledges and donations on a single night, Democrats still have an overwhelming advantage on their Republican counterparts, FEC reports due last night at midnight show. And given heavy spending by both parties on House races in Louisiana and Mississippi, that gap could grow larger this month.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee raised $10.1 million in March, matching what they had raised in the previous two months combined. The committee is left with $44.3 million in the bank and no debt. Democrats look so powerful that even a political action committee dedicated to the juice company Ocean Spray made a contribution.

A little more than a month after taking a special election victory in Illinois, Democrats have now invested heavily in a number of special elections in 2008 alone. Democrats spent $1.05 million on the Illinois seat, which is now occupied by Rep. Bill Foster, and $311,000 on Indiana's Seventh District, now held by Rep. Andre Carson. Through Friday, the party had spent another $337,000 on Louisiana's Sixth District, where State Rep. Don Cazayoux is battling former state legislator Woody Jenkins, and $141,000 on Mississippi's First District, where local official Travis Childers is taking on Republican Southaven Mayor Greg Davis.

The National Republican Congressional Committee saw the gap between itself and Democrats grow this month, as despite commitments for $8.6 million at the presidential bash, the committee raised just $7.1 million in March and spent more than $5 million. A month after the party had to restate cash on hand totals after a scandal involving former treasurer Christopher Ward, the NRCC reported nearly $7.2 million in the bank with no debt.

The party is having to defend the same two special election seats Democrats are attacking, though, hindering Republicans' ability to build a nice November nest egg. Through Thursday, the NRCC had dropped $292,000 on Davis' Mississippi seat and $120,000 on behalf of Jenkins in Louisiana. In March, the committee spent $1.26 million in its unsuccessful effort to save former Speaker Dennis Hastert's seat in Illinois.

The situation is largely reversed when when it comes to the DCCC's and NRCC's building mates, their respective national parties. Howard Dean's Democratic National Committee raised almost $6 million in March, but they spent $5.4 million and ended March with just $5.3 million in the bank. That's up from $2.9 million cash on hand on January 1, a pace that isn't exactly on par with their Republican rivals.

Mike Duncan's Republican National Committee had a much better month, raising $15.3 million in March and spending $9.3 million to keep $31 million left over. At a meeting of the Republican National Committee earlier this month, Duncan formally informed John McCain's campaign manager that the money stood ready to help. McCain, perhaps returning the favor, will swing by Inez, Kentucky, a small town near Charleston and the West Virginia border that Duncan calls home.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

For the sixth edition of our FEC roundup, it's off to the Ohio Valley, most of which are in the state of Ohio itself, as well as a lone race in West Virginia. Are Republicans looking at another region that could bear several losses?

Ohio 01: Republican Steve Chabot was forced to spend some $3 million in 2006 to defend his Cincinnati-based seat, which President Bush carried by just two points in 2004. In a tough year for Republicans, Chabot doubled Bush's margin to win his 7th term in office. This year Chabot will face another tough challenge, this time by highly-touted Democratic recruit, state Rep. Steve Driehaus. At the end of the 1st quarter, Chabot holds a 2-to-1 advantage in cash-on-hand, with $1.13 million in the bank. Driehaus has yet to spend much of the $700,000 he's raised so far. The DCCC has spent big here in previous attempts to oust Chabot, and that is likely to occur again with Driehaus a member of its Red-to-Blue program.

Ohio 02: In a district Bush carried with 64% in 2004, Republican Jean Schmidt won her first general election in 2006 by only 2,500 votes against Victoria Wulsin, after pulling out a five point victory in the GOP primary. Wulsin is challenging Schmidt again this year, and the Democrat has outraised, outspent and has more cash in the bank than the incumbent. Wulsin has pulled in $770,000, spent $600,000, and has $212,000 cash-on-hand. Schmidt, meanwhile, has raised $565,000, spent $400,000, and has $175,000 in the bank, but she's carrying more than $275,000 in debt. Schmidt spent big in the primary this year and still only won 57% of the vote. She outspent Wulsin 2-to-1 in 2006 and may need to do the same this year to hold on to her seat, despite the Republican tilt of the district.

Ohio 15: This open seat is up for grabs, as Republican Steve Stivers and Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy battle to replace retiring GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce. Kilroy came just 1,000 votes away from upsetting Pryce in 2006, despite being outspent by about $2 million. Likewise, Bush's eight-point victory over Al Gore in 2000 shrunk to just more than a 2,000-vote margin over John Kerry in 2004. Both candidates are in pretty good shape, financially, though because Kilroy has been in the race much longer, she has the upper hand in fundraising. Kilroy reported having $945,000 in the bank after raising $1.21 million. Stivers has raised $790,000 and has $600,000 in the bank. Both raised close to $300,000 between mid-February and the end of March.

Ohio 16: The long tenure of GOP Rep. Ralph Regula is coming to an end, and replacing him will be one of two state senators, Democrat John Boccieri or Republican Kirk Schuring. The edge should go to Schuring due to the Republican lean of the district, though Regula was held below 60% of the vote in 2006 for the first time since his initial election in 1972, and Governor Ted Strickland and Senator Sherrod Brown, both Democrats, carried Stark County by healthy margins. At the end of the 1st quarter, Boccieri has outraised Schuring by $200,000, though he's been in the race longer. Schuring's raised $490,000 and has $100,000 in the bank, while Boccieri has pulled in $690,000 with $250,000 in the bank.

West Virginia 02: In 2006, Republican Shelley Moore Capito matched her 2004 winning percentage, despite some tough questions she had to answer because of her seat on the congressional page board. She outspent her Democratic opponent by close to 4-to-1 that year, and this year she has so far outraised Sen. Robert Byrd's longtime aide, Anne Barth, by more than 3-to-1. Capito also has about three times as much cash on hand, with $925,000 to Barth's $305,000. While Byrd should help Barth's fundraising in the coming months, Capito's overall moderate record has helped her remain strong in the heavily Democratic Kanawha County, which she even won in 2006.

-- Kyle Trygstad

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 02:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Part five in our series inspecting top House races we'll be watching come October and November. We head down to the Sunshine State, where Democrats feel great about their chances and Republicans are playing serious defense. But the GOP brand is in better shape in Florida than elsewhere, and Democrats have their work cut out for them. Onto our favorite hot and sunny contests:

Florida 08: Four-term Republican Ric Keller, who represents parts of Orlando and its suburbs, beat a tough Democratic challenger in his first election, in 2000, and another difficult challenger, consultant Charlie Stuart, by a narrow 53%-46% margin in 2006. Stuart, who was reasonably well-funded two years ago, is back and Democrats have Keller in their sights. Not the most prodigious of fundraisers, Keller raised $742,000 through March and kept $735,000 in reserve. Stuart has $316,000 in the bank after raising $415,000 so far this cycle. But his path to unseating Keller is not free of obstacles. In the August 26 primary, Stuart is going to have to get past attorney Mike Smith, who has raised $443,000 so far this year and still has $295,000 in the bank. Another attorney, Todd Long, has outspent both his fellow Democrats, having raised $192,000 and retaining just $17,000 in the bank.

Florida 13: In 2006, Republican Vern Buchanan and Democrat Christine Jennings, two wealthy businesspeople running in a Sarasota- and Bradenton-based district on the Gulf Coast of the panhandle, spent a combined $11 million on one House seat. Buchanan, who spent $8 million of that amount, won by a total of just under 400 votes, a margin so narrow that a House panel ended up investigating. This year, Jennings wants revenge; she raised $897,000 through the first quarter and retained $483,000 in the bank. Buchanan pulled in $2.34 million and held reserves of $1.12 million. Those seem like high burn-rates, but both candidates spent money on the court costs associated with the previous election. Either way, both candidates will be extraordinarily well-funded come November, and while Buchanan has an added advantage of incumbency, he will by no means have an easy time winning re-election.

Florida 16: The district that runs from the Atlantic Ocean across the middle of the panhandle likely cost Republicans more House seats last year than any other. Until felled by a scandal involving House pages, Republican Mark Foley held the seat. Now, Democrat Tim Mahoney is running for re-election with a war chest of just over $1 million, having already raised $2.13 million this cycle. He will face either retired businessman Hal Valeche, who serves on a local city council, or Tom Rooney, a recruit Republicans have been trying to score for various races for years. Valeche has raised $737,000 and put $250,000 of his own money into the race already, retaining $589,000 for later, while Rooney, whose parents own the Pittsburgh Steelers, has raised $691,000 and has $442,000 cash on hand.

Florida 18: The first of three heavily Cuban American districts in Southern Florida, Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen has cruised to re-election in her nine full terms -- she didn't even face an opponent between 1994 and 2000. But there is a huge generational gap among Cuban Americans. Older voters tend to favor Republicans who talk tough about Fidel Castro, while younger voters lean more toward Democrats. This year, Democrats are excited about businesswoman Annette Taddeo, who has raised $321,000 so far this year and still has $300,000 in the bank. Ros-Lehtinen has a whopping $1.72 million cash on hand after raising $880,000 so far this cycle. While Democrats are excited about their chances in all three races, it's going to take a big upheaval to knock out Ros-Lehtinen.

Florida 21: Republican Lincoln Diaz-Balart's district, nearly 70% Hispanic, is just north of Ros-Lehtinen's and includes the suburb of Hialeah. In eight terms in Congress, Diaz-Balart has faced a total of two opponents, including one candidate who ran as a Libertarian in 2004 and as a Democrat in 2006. This year, Democrats have recruited Raul Martinez, a former mayor of Hialeah, and the party thinks they might have a shot at the incumbent. Diaz-Balart has raised $1.07 million so far this year and had $1.45 million left in the bank after March, FEC reports showed. Martinez isn't falling too far behind, though. So far, the former mayor has raised $616,000 and kept $592,000 in the bank.

Florida 25: The only one of the three Cuban American Republicans representing Florida not born in Havana, Mario Diaz-Balart, Lincoln's younger brother, could also face a tough battle in the Fall. Mario's district touches the western edge of both Lincoln's and Ros-Lehtinen's and includes much of the southern tip of the panhandle. Seeking his third term, Mario Diaz-Balart has amassed a war chest of $747,000 after raising $719,000 through the end of March. Miami-Dade County Democratic Party chairman Joe Garcia, running against the incumbent Republican, has pulled in $331,000 and still has $316,000 left over. A Democratic win in South Florida may not come this year, but it will likely happen soon, given the changing attitudes of a generation more friendly to the party.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Day two, and part four, of our exhaustive look at some of the hot races we might be watching come October and November. In this installment, we'll take a look at Georgia, Alabama ...

Note that there are some great races we're going to be watching in North Carolina, but because of that state's pending primary, candidates there don't have to file until next week. We'll update those races when we get the numbers. And Florida, like Pennsylvania, has so many great races that we're saving a special update just for the Sunshine State.

Georgia 08: Democratic Rep. Jim Marshall, initially elected to replace now-Senator Saxby Chambliss in 2002, has won two of his three elections by barely more than a percentage point. Marshall's district, which stretches from the Atlanta suburbs south to just north of the Florida border, has a considerably Republican tilt, and that means Marshall will likely never be safe. So far this year, Marshall has pulled in $1.04 million and retained $1.19 million in the bank. He will likely face retired Air Force Major General Rick Goddard, who through March had raised $577,000 and kept $403,000 in the bank. Marshall and fellow Democrat John Barrow were two of Republicans' top targets in 2006, and that trend is going to continue throughout both men's Congressional career, though this year Barrow seems to have avoided a top challenger.

Alabama 02: Republican Rep. Terry Everett's retirement after eight terms in the House left several candidates scrambling for a seat that ordinarily votes heavily Republican. Democrats recruited Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright and released a poll showing him leading over prominent Republicans in the race, but fundraising records show Bright has catching up to do. In the month he's been running, Bright raised just $54,000 and has only $46,000 in the bank. Republicans Jay Love, a state Representative, and Harri Anne Smith, a state Senator, are seen as the GOP frontrunners; Love raised $434,000 after loaning himself $300,000, and he retains $276,000 in the bank. Smith pulled in $268,000 and kept $139,000 in the bank, as both candidates are running television ads. Dentist Craig Schmidtke raised $274,000 and spent all but $13,000 of it, and television executive David Woods raised $351,000 with $308,000 left over, after writing himself a $250,000 check. The race could be competitive, and watch for national Democrats to come in with guns blazing if Bright continues to lag in the fundraising department.

Alabama 05: North of Everett's district, Rep. Bud Cramer is one of just a few Democrats to announce his retirement from Congress after his party took control. Cramer, a Southern Democrat, could be difficult for the party to replace, but it helps a lot that Republicans have failed to recruit their own strong candidate. State Senator Parker Griffith is likely to be the Democratic standard-bearer; he raised $115,000 in his first few weeks in the race and retains $112,000 for future use. Attorney Ray McKee, who is also a former rocket scientist, is the only Republican raising any money in the seat, though he trails by a mile; through March, he had raised just $64,000 and kept $22,000 on hand.

Mississippi 01: When Senator Roger Wicker was elevated from the House following Trent Lott's retirement, few expected a competitive race to replace him. But recent polls have shown Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers, a Democrat, running close to Southaven Mayor Greg Davis, the district's Republican nominee, and the NRCC is spending heavily in the district. Through April 2, when the district's pre-runoff reports were due, both candidates had depleted their war chests. Childers had just $7,600 in the bank after spending the vast majority of the $283,000 he's raised, while Davis kept just $59,000 in the bank after dishing out most of the $636,000 he's raised so far. Post-runoff reports will tell us more, but it is likely that Democrat Childers is staying competitive even though he's being vastly outspent. That could spell big trouble for Republicans down the line.

Louisiana 06: Another special election will be held in just a few weeks to replace retired Rep. Richard Baker, whose Baton Rouge-based seat has been getting significant national attention already. Democrat Don Cazayoux, a state Representatitive, is locked in a tight contest with former state legislator Woody Jenkins, a conservative Republican. Through the middle of March, Cazayoux had raised $565,000 and kept $110,000 in the bank, while Jenkins had raised $291,000 and held just $18,000 in reserve. Both national parties are spending heavily in advance of the special election, and the candidate who wins is likely to be the favorite come November. Like in Mississippi, most of our information will come after May 3, when the winner is decided and new filings become public.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:15 AM | Email Author | Permalink

This weekend, Pennsylvanians will have plenty of opportunities to see presidential contenders Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, but they can also check out the top Republican in the House, as Minority Leader John Boehner takes a campaign swing through the state.

Boehner will join former Rep. Melissa Hart, who lost a close race to Democrat Jason Altmire in 2006, for a press conference this afternoon in Cranberry Township. Hart is looking to get her old job back in a district, encompassing many of Pittsburgh's northern suburbs, that voted for President Bush by narrow margins in both hi