The top pollster in Washington State is out with a new survey that paints a grim picture for first-term incumbent Christine Gregoire, a Democrat. But the survey isn't universally good news for Gregoire's Republican opponent-in-waiting, former State Senator Dino Rossi, either.

The poll, conducted by respected independent pollster Stuart Elway, surveyed 405 registered voters around the state between 4/21-22 for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Gregoire and Rossi were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Sea / KCO / EWA / P/K)
Gregoire 43 / 54 / 41 / 27 / 35
Rossi 38 / 28 / 35 / 54 / 45

(Note: "Sea" is the city of Seattle; "KCO" is King County excluding Seattle; "EWA" is Eastern Washington; "P/K" is Pierce and Kitsap Counties)

Both candidates are under-performing in their base and setting up for a re-run of the 2004 race. Gregoire needs to do very well in heavily-Democratic Seattle, while Rossi needs a similarly large margin in heavily-Republican districts east of the Cascade Mountains.

Rossi ran so close to Gregoire in 2004 -- he lost by just over 100 votes after multiple recounts -- because of his strength in King County, traditionally Democratic territory where he still performed well. Rossi represented a State Senate district in the Cascade foothills, on the county's eastern edge. If Rossi can overtake Gregoire in the parts of King County outside of Seattle, he will have a great chance to take back the governor's mansion for Republicans for the first time since John Spellman was elected in 1980.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Washington Governor Christine Gregoire, in D.C. for the National Governors' Association meetings, can't seem to stop getting good news. Fresh off her state's presidential caucus, in which she endorsed Barack Obama just days before his landslide win, a new poll shows the Democrat's own chances in November are looking up.

The survey, conducted among 300 registered voters between 2/7-18, was commissioned by the University of Washington and conducted by Pacific Market Research. Gregoire and former State Senator Dino Rossi, a Republican, were surveyed. The margin of error was +/- 5.6%.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Gregoire 54 / 92 / 8 / 56 (+7 from last poll, 10/07)
Rossi 42 / 7 / 87 / 39 (+0)

Rossi need not fold up the tent and go home, though, as the survey has a number of obvious question marks. Eleven days to contact just 300 voters is a long time, and the format by which survey participants were picked is a method other pollsters don't use: All of the 300 respondents were also surveyed for the October poll, a technique known as a "panel survey."

Too, Gregoire was highly visible around the state just before the February 9 caucuses, and her Obama endorsement -- coming as the state's two female Senators backed Hillary Clinton -- made her the most prominent Obama backer on the West Coast. It would not be surprising if Gregoire's image and name had been flashed before respondents dozens of times before and during the poll's life span.

Still, the message to Rossi is clear: As in 2004, when he lost by just over 100 votes, he is running a very steep uphill battle. He came close four years ago, but running against a well-financed incumbent is more difficult than running against a challenger. Other surveys, it is all but certain, will show Rossi closer to Gregoire than this one, but he very clearly has work to do to catch up.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

We wrote yesterday of former State Senator Dino Rossi's golden opportunity to close the fundraising gap with incumbent Governor Christine Gregoire. A November poll, released today, shows keeping her fundraising advantage may be the least of Gregoire's worries, as a new poll shows her barely clinging to a lead.

The worst part: The poll was conducted by Democratic firm Grove Insights, of Portland, Oregon, and the same company that Gregoire used as her pollster in 2004. Conducted for Washington Conservation Voters, the poll surveyed 588 likely voters between 11/9-12 for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Gregoire and Rossi were surveyed.

General Election Matchup
(All / Ind)
Gregoire 43 / 30
Rossi 41 / 41

The incumbent Democrat enjoys just a one-point net approval on her job as governor, 49%-48%. And while the poll is older than the most recent look at the race, it tells a similar story to that of a University of Washington poll taken a few weeks earlier. In that poll, Gregoire led by just five points.

A poll out in mid-January, conducted by prominent Seattle pollster Stuart Elway, had Gregoire up by a more substantial 48%-35% margin. Still, being up just two points in a poll conducted by your old polling firm, a Democratic company so widely respected that they are one of just a few that conducts surveys for the DCCC, is not a good sign, and Rossi's camp wasted little time in pointing those facts out.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 04:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

New reports with the Washington State Public Disclosure Commission show former State Senator Dino Rossi with a big fundraising disadvantage in his second bid for governor. But the gap between incumbent Democrat Christine Gregoire and Republican Rossi is closing fast, and with the legislature in session, Gregoire's money advantage is only likely to get more narrow.

Gregoire has raised more than $4.6 million for her bid, PDC reports show, though she's spent a hefty $1.6 million along the way. Rossi, who has been in the race since October 25, has raised $2.2 million and spent a little over $630,000, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer reports. In 2004, the race, which Gregoire won by 133 votes, cost both candidates more than $6 million each.

Kelly Evans, Gregoire's campaign manager, defended the high burn rate, saying it had gone to building infrastructure that will be crucial come November. PDC reports show Gregoire spent more than $100,000 in December for research and consulting, likely indicating heavy spending on baseline polls. Gregoire's spending slowed significantly in January.

Rossi's opportunity to eliminate his opponent's fundraising advantage comes as the state legislature is in session, during which time no incumbent legislator or statewide elected official can raise money. The fundraising freeze is one reason Rossi quit the legislature before mounting his first bid, in 2004.

Raising $2.2 million in three and a half months is impressive, and given the freeze Gregoire faces, Rossi has another month to build his bank account. The state legislature adjourns its regular session on March 13, at the latest. A poll in mid-January showed Gregoire with a wide 13-point lead, though Rossi is well-known in the state and other surveys have showed both candidates running closer to even.

National strategists on both sides agree Washington presents the strongest Republican target for a pick-up in 2008. Top officials with the Republican and Democratic Governors' Associations each say the race will be costly.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Washington State Governor Christine Gregoire, preparing for her third annual State of the State Address tonight in Olympia, got some good news today as an independent poll shows her leading her 2004 rival by a wide margin, the first time the incumbent has seen a big lead after scratching out a win last time around. In 2004, Gregoire took several recounts to end up beating State Senator Dino Rossi by just 133 votes.

The survey, taken by independent pollster Stuart Elway, asked questions of 405 voters between 1/3-6, for a margin of error of about 5%. Gregoire and Rossi were surveyed.

General Election Matchup
Gregoire 48
Rossi 35

Rossi's disappointingly low number is close to the Republican baseline in Washington State. It's less than the percentage conservative candidates John Carlson and Ellen Craswell won in their races for governor, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer reports, and looks likely to rise.

Gregoire leads among every category of voters except independent voters, among whom she trails by nine, and voters from east of the Cascade Mountains, traditionally the GOP's stronghold in the state. Rossi strategists argued that the survey included too many self-identified Democrats, pointing to a poll in late October that showed Gregoire up just five points.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:15 PM | Email Author | Permalink

The Washington Poll, sponsored by the Washington Institute for the Study of Ethnicity and Race at the University of Washington, shows a close race for governor in 2008. Incumbent Chris Gregoire, facing a rematch with defeated 2004 foe Dino Rossi, maintains a narrow lead, which Republicans will argue is a bad sign for an incumbent and which Democrats will argue is much better than the position in which she's found herself in previous polls, trailing Rossi badly.

The poll [PPT], conducted 10/22-28, was taken by Pacific Market Research, surveyed 601 registered voters and came in with a margin of error of +/- 4%. Rossi and Gregoire were surveyed, along with frequent candidate Ruth Bennett, a Libertarian.

General Election Matchup
(All / Puget Sound / Eastern WA / Other west / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Gregoire 47 / 50 / 36 / 48 / 85 / 6 / 43
Rossi 42 / 38 / 52 / 46 / 5 / 86 / 41
Bennett 2 / 2 / 5 / 2 / 3 / 0 / 4

The Puget Sound region, including King, Pierce, Snohomish and Thurston Counties, are the traditional Democratic strongholds of the state. Gregoire needs a big lead in those four counties to overcome what will almost certainly be a Rossi romp east of the Cascade Mountains, the GOP's stronghold in the state.

Rossi jumped in the race on October 25, and according to a campaign spokeswoman, the campaign has already pulled in $500,000, cutting into Gregoire's big fundraising lead. Seattle Times' David Postman reports the campaign raised $463,000 in the last six days of October and $110,000 in the first two days of November, a rapid pace that probably comes from pre-announcement commitments.

Gregoire has raised about $3.25 million, including $321,000 last month, according to as-yet incomplete finance reports (completed versions are due Saturday).

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

The irreplaceable David Postman, Washington State's version of David Yepsen or John DiStaso, reported earlier this week that 2004 Republican gubernatorial nominee Dino Rossi stepped down from his post as head of Forward Washington, a non-profit think tank he had founded, because he was a distraction to the group's mission.

Rossi told another Seattle Times reporter that he would spend about the next six weeks contemplating a rematch against Gov. Christine Gregoire (D), who beat Rossi in the most closely-contested election in Washington State history, the validity of the results of which are still hotly debated.

Rossi initially decided to accept a severance package from Forward Washington, though he later decided against one

Postman thinks Rossi's decision to step down, as well as the $3 million Gregoire has raised, are their own announcements, and that neither is being terribly honest when pretending to delay an official announcement.

If Rossi does make the race, national Republicans will no doubt help him catch up with Gregoire's fundraising -- he made good connections when, after his loss, he traveled to DC for President Bush's second inaugural, and the RGA still has him smack in the middle of their radar. The Evergreen State will be one of the most tightly contested races in 2008.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:10 PM | Email Author | Permalink

After winning the 2004 election by just over 100 votes and three recounts, Washington State Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) knows she faces a tough battle for re-election, especially if, as looks likely, former State Sen. Dino Rossi (R) runs against her a second time. Rossi, from Issaquah, a Seattle suburb, has kept his name in the papers with his Forward Washington Foundation think tank, and many say his decision on the race could be forthcoming as early as October.

Gregoire is taking no chances, though, and is stockpiling money as fast as she can. Gregoire raised about $6.4 million for the 2004 race, the most in Washington State history. Now, in the five months since the legislature has been out of session (statewide candidates in state offices are subject to a fundraising freeze while the legislature is in session), Gregoire has held about two dozen fundraisers, pulling in almost $1 million, according to the Seattle Times.

Those events bring Gregoire's total raised to more than $2.6 million, and puts her on pace to raise more than she did in 2004. Still, filings with the Public Disclosure Commission, Washington's version of the FEC, show the Democrat has burned through about $940,000 of that cash, for a 35% burn rate, leaving her with about $1.7 million on hand.

The high burn rate doesn't scare many Democrats, though. "Next year is the most politically expensive year of our lives," said Democratic consultant Cathy Allen. "What they're doing now is building the data and getting early commitments from people, and that costs money and takes time."

Republicans, on the other hand, see the burn rate as indicative of fundraising troubles. "That's surprising that she's burned that much because the early money should be the low-hanging fruit," said GOP strategist Todd Myers.

Republican strategists are convinced that Rossi will be able to quickly close the gap, especially because of the fundraising freeze. Gregoire will not be able to fundraise beginning thirty days before the legislative session starts. Rossi has "three, four months where he can fundraise where the governor can't," Myers said. "From this day forward, he has more time to fundraise than she does." Allen, among other Democrats, is not convinced. "Happily, the economy is pretty good here," she said. "But it's not that good."

A poll conducted in early July showed Rossi trailing Gregoire by just 4 points, 47%-43%, in a state that leans heavily Democratic. Rossi, if he runs, will have a lot of catching up to do in order to stay financially competitive. But a high burn rate from Gregoire, along with a GOP fundraising base still hopping mad about the 2004 election, will allow the Republican to catch up just that much faster.

UPDATE: This reporter made the idiotic mistake of spelling Mr. Myers' name with one too many e's. We regret the error.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 06:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink