VA's Coming Gov Battle
Three well-known, well-funded candidates are heading toward a battle of titanic proportions when Virginia's governor's mansion comes open in 2009, and the race could signal whether the Commonwealth has truly fallen into Democratic hands or if it remains in the toss-up category.
On the Democratic side, Delegate Brian Moran, brother of Rep. Jim Moran, will likely face off with State Senator Creigh Deeds in a contest that pits the heavily-Democratic Northern Virginia region against the rest of the state. Moran, who represents Alexandria, will have to run up a big margin in his backyard to overcome Deeds, who represents a district near the eastern side of the state and has run statewide before.
Both Moran and Deeds had some big accomplishments in the just-concluded legislative session, the Richmond Times-Dispatch writes. But the battle could be fierce: While Moran has raised an impressive amount of money, both for himself and for the Democratic caucus in Richmond, Deeds is probably better-known in the state. In 2005, Deeds lost a race for Attorney General by just 360 votes out of nearly 2 million cast. Deeds has officially declared his candidacy, while Moran is moving toward doing so.
The winner of the Democratic primary will face Bob McDonnell, the Republican who beat Deeds for Attorney General three years ago. McDonnell avoided what could have been a bloody primary of his own when Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling told the Associated Press on Monday that he will not run.
Virginia, once a commonwealth taken for granted by Republicans, has trended decidedly away from the GOP in recent years. In 1996, Mark Warner nearly defeated Republican incumbent John Warner for Senate. The wealthy Democratic businessman came back to win the governor's mansion in 2001, and Republicans have not elected a senator or governor since John Warner's 2002 re-election campaign. Thanks to the state's one-term limit on governors, incumbent Democrat Tim Kaine, who served as Mark Warner's Lieutenant Governor, cannot run again until 2013.
After victories by Kaine, in 2005, and Senator Jim Webb, in 2006, national Democrats think the state may even be in play during this year's presidential contests. President Bush won the state by nine points in 2004, though this year nearly twice as many Democrats turned out in the state's February 12 presidential primary as did Republicans. McDonnell will face a well-funded Democrat in next November's governor's race, which will probably be the most closely-watched contest in the country in 2009, as The Fix writes in an excellent backgrounder.
The two governor's mansions up in 2009, New Jersey and Virginia, have voted together in the last three cycles, and that's not good news for Republicans. New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, though not the most popular governor in the nation, will be heavily favored for re-election if he decides to seek a second term next year. But Virginia's choice will offer the biggest storyline of the year in 2009: A Moran or Deeds victory could signal that the GOP has yet to reach rock bottom, while a McDonnell win would offer Republicans hope that their darkest days are behind them.