Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) had taken a small lead after announcing her campaign for governor. But the man who still holds that job has retaken a commanding lead in the primary race, a new Rasmussen poll finds.

Primary Election Matchup
Perry 46 (+8 vs. last poll, 9/16)
Hutchison 35 (-5)
Medina 4 (+1)
Not Sure 14 (-5)

Looking deeper, Rasmussen finds that Gov. Rick Perry's (R) advantage is among the more conservative voters in the primary electorate. He leads 52-30 percent among those who identify themselves as conservatives, while Hutchison leads among moderates and liberals.

Perry has ratcheted up his anti-Washington rhetoric of late, generating a banner headline on Drudge for saying this week that the Obama administration was "hell-bent" on socialism. That's proving to be a winning message in the race considering both candidates are very popular in their own right. Among these primary voters, Perry's job approval rating is 73 percent, and both have nearly identical fav/unfav ratings -- 75/24 for Perry, 75/23 for Hutchison.

The survey also asked if Hutchison should resign her Senate post in making a gov run, something she was expected to do but not yet indicated when. Sixty percent of primary voters said she should, while 26 percent said no.

The survey of 798 likely GOP primary voters was conducted November 11 and had a margin of error of 3.5 percent.

Posted by Mike Memoli at 08:38 AM | Email Author | Permalink

One day after former Vice President Dick Cheney weighed in on behalf of Kay Bailey Hutchison, another endorsement in what is shaping up to be a fascinating Texas gubernatorial primary. Today, it's Gov. Haley Barbour (R-Miss.) endorsing the incumbent, Rick Perry.

The Austin American-Statesman reports the Perry and Barbour, chair of the Republican Governors Association, will be raising money today in Fredericksburg and Dallas. Those fundraisers will benefit the RGA, but Barbour's own endorsement of Perry will come later and be his alone, not the organization's.

RGA spokesperson Mike Schrimpf said the organization does not pick sides in gubernatorial primaries. Something of a distinction without a difference, perhaps.

As for Cheney's endorsement of Hutchison, Perry said on a local radio station this morning: "I think I'd stick with Sarah," referring to Sarah Palin, who has backed him. His spokesman was more blunt: "It's not surprising, considering they worked in Washington together for so many years."

Posted by Mike Memoli at 11:58 AM | Email Author | Permalink

One month after formally announcing her candidacy for governor, Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) has retaken a lead over incumbent Rick Perry in the latest Rasmussen poll.

Primary Election Matchup
Hutchison 40 (+4 from last survey, 7/15)
Perry 38 (-8)
Medina 3 (n/a)
Not Sure 19 (+5)

Both candidates have nearly identical favorable ratings among the Republican primary electorate -- Perry is at 72 / 26 split, Hutchison at 71 / 26. Perry's job approval rating is at 69 percent among Republicans, while 29 percent disapprove. President Obama's approval rating among Texas Republicans is just 18 percent.

The automated telephone survey was conducted September 16 among 790 likely primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.

Posted by Mike Memoli at 02:40 PM | Email Author | Permalink

A new University of Texas poll shows that Texans don't think much of what's going on in Washington, which may be weighing down Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) as she prepares to challenge Gov. Rick Perry (R) in the March 2010 primary. She had led Perry in the last UT poll conducted in February.

Republican Primary Election Matchup (RVs)
Perry 38 (+9 from Feb)
Hutchison 27 (-10)
Berman 1
Undecided 26 (+2)

A Democratic primary matchup shows entertainer and 2006 independent candidate Kinky Friedman ahead among registered voters with just 13 percent, followed by state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte at 7, with 64 percent undecided. In a poll of the special election that would occur if Hutchison resigns her Senate seat, Republican Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and Democratic former state Comptroller John Sharp leading with 9 percent, with Houston Mayor Bill White (D) at 6 percent.

Perry is not overwhelmingly popular, and in fact won re-election in 2006 with less than 40 percent of the vote in a multi-candidate field. But President Obama has a net negative approval rating, while only 20 percent approve of Congress.

Job Approval
Perry 42 / 32
Obama 43 / 46
Congress 20 / 58

The poll also tests a potential 2012 White House matchup between Obama and Mitt Romney, with the incumbent slightly ahead.

2012 Presidential Matchup
Obama 36
Romney 34
Don't Know 30

The survey was conducted from June 11-22, surveying 924 adults with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent. The Republican primary subsample of 350 voters had a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percent.

Posted by Mike Memoli at 01:05 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Why mess with success? After two big election wins, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has begun exporting some members of his campaign team to other Republicans. Trouble is, when you break up a team, sometimes those teammates end up playing against each other down the road.

Former Schwarzenegger aide Walter von Huene, who served as the Governator's chess partner, has signed on as speech coach to Texas Lieutenant Gov. David Dewhurst, the LA Times notes. Dewhurst is widely expected to seek the governor's mansion when Rick Perry leaves office in 2010, and after two terms as the number two guy in the Lone Star State, he's the early front-runner.

But Dewhurst might not have a clear path to the GOP nomination. Schwarzenegger's rise to power was presaged by his involvement in a successful statewide initiative campaign he spearheaded. In Texas, an initiative last year to float cancer research bonds was headed up by 7-time Tour de France winner Lance Armstrong, who delivered an eloquent election-night speech as his initiative won voter approval.

That speech was written by Jeff Danzinger, a former Schwarzenegger speech writer, the Dallas Morning News reports. And another former Schwarzenegger staffer, Katherine McLane, serves now as Armstrong's spokeswoman. Does Armstrong have the political bug? McLane isn't saying, telling the Morning News that Armstrong is focused only on making cancer research a national priority during the 2008 presidential race. "What happens after that, who can say?" she said.

Armstrong has campaigned with members of both parties. His proposition increasing cancer research funding won support from a prominent Texas Democratic state senator and an aide to former Democratic Gov. Ann Richards, who died of cancer last year, as well as former President George H.W. Bush and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. If he were to make a run, he would give Dewhurst a real race, and because of Texas's loose fundraising laws, it could easily be the most expensive race in the country.

Both Dewhurst and Armstrong have poached staffers from Schwarzenegger. When it comes to politics, they've learned, don't fix what ain't broke.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:40 AM | Email Author | Permalink