It has not been a good year for Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.), whose numbers take a real hit in the latest Franklin & Marshall College poll (529 RVs, 10/20-25, +/- 4.3 percent).

His favorable rating is just 28 percent, down from 48 percent in March, while his unfavorable rating is now up to 46 percent, nearly double the March rating. Only 23 percent say he should be re-elected, while 66 percent say it's time for a change. Specter's job approval rating is just 29 percent, while 64 percent disapprove. Meanwhile, he continues to slip in both primary and general election matchups.

Primary Election Matchup
Specter 37 (-7 vs. last poll, 8/25-31)
Sestak 18 (+7)
Und 47 (+1)

General Election Matchups
Specter 33 (-4)
Toomey 31 (+2)
Und 30 (+5)

Toomey 28 (+2)
Sestak 20 (-2)
Und 48 (+2)

President Obama's job approval rating has also slipped, from 47 percent in August to 40 percent now; 59 percent disapprove.

Democrats have a 4-point advantage in the generic Congressional ballot, 37-34 percent. After the jump, check out matchups for the gubernatorial race.

Continue reading "PA Sen Poll: Specter's Numbers Continue Downward Trend" »

Posted by Mike Memoli at 10:15 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) is the most well known of the candidates looking to replace the term-limited Gov. Ed Rendell (D), and therefore leads his potential opponents by wide margins, a new Quinnipiac survey finds (Sept. 21-28, 1100 RV, MoE +/- 3%).

Corbett leads Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.), who represents a district northwest of Philadelphia, by a 42%-13% margin among Republicans, with 43% undecided.

Among the Democrats, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato leads with 14%, followed by Montgomery Co. Commissioner Joe Hoeffel (the 2004 Senate nominee) at 12%, State Auditor General Jack Wagner at 11%, Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty at 8% and businessman Tom Knox at 5%. Forty-six percent remain undecided.

"The Democratic race for Governor is wide open," said Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown. "The candidates just aren't that visible to most voters and that race is still far, far away from even having a front-runner. The Republicans are another story. Corbett has a large lead and although it is certainly not insurmountable, Congressman Gerlach certainly has his work cut out for him."

General Election Matchups
Corbett 47 - Onorato 28 - Und 24

Corbett 44 - Wagner 29 - Und 25

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 09:45 AM | Email Author | Permalink

A new Quinnipiac poll finds now early favorites in the open-seat race for Pennsylvania governor, with most candidates unknown to state voters. On the Democratic side, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato and state Auditor Dan Wagner have a slight lead over Philadelphia businessman Tom Knox.

Democratic Primary Election Matchup
Onorato 16
Wagner 16
Knox 13
Don't Know 54

State Attorney General Tom Corbett does have a double-digit lead over Rep. Jim Gerlach, who is vacating a competitive Philadelphia-based Congressional seat.

Republican Primary Election Matchup
Corbett 38
Gerlach 15
Meehan 9
Don't Know 37

In a generic matchup, 38 percent of voters said they'd pick the Republican candidate, while 37 percent would pick the Democrat. Independent voters backed the Republican by a 32-23 percent margin.

Favorability Ratings
Gerlach 16 / 6
Onorato 16 / 6
Wagner 18 / 4
Knox 10 / 4
Corbett 38 / 6
Meehan 12 / 3

Outgoing Gov. Ed Rendell (D) has seen his approval rating sink to its lowest level, with 39 percent approving and 53 percent disapproving. His approval dropped from 54 points just two months ago. Fifty-seven percent of voters say they are dissatisfied with the direction of the state.

The survey of 1,173 voters was conducted from July 14 - 19, and had a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent. The GOP subsample of 511 voters had a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent, as did the Dem subsample of 512 voters.

Posted by Mike Memoli at 08:55 AM | Email Author | Permalink

It's the other election in Pennsylvania next year -- an open-seat contest for governor. There are no clear favorites for either party, and PA2010.com has results of an internal poll from Philadelphia businessman Tom Knox (D) showing that the Democratic race to succeed Gov. Ed Rendell (D) is wide open.

Primary Election Matchup
Onorato 14
Knox 14
Wagner 13
Cunningham 7
Undecided 52

In that field, state Auditor Jack Wagner is the only statewide-elected official. Dan Onorato, the Allegheny County Executive, has a strong base of support in Western Pennsylvania. Don Cunningham is the current Lehigh County Executive.

In a head to head matchup, Onorato leads Knox 22-21 percent, with 57 percent undecided. The poll was conducted by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates, surveying 800 registered Democrats. It had a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.

Knox, a former executive at UnitedHealthcare and a deputy mayor under Ed Rendell, poured millions into a campaign for Philadelphia mayor in 2007 but saw his lead evaporate as the Democratic primary closed and then-City Councilor Michael Nutter gained momentum. He's reportedly prepared to spend up to $20 million on a gubernatorial bid.

Posted by Mike Memoli at 04:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

After getting thumped by Sen. Bob Casey last year, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is looking at a comeback. True, Politics Nation spotted Santorum in Washington last week, but he's not looking at replacing Sen. Arlen Specter: He's actually thinking about a race to replace Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell in 2010, according to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

Rendell, who won re-election by a wide margin last year, is term-limited. Santorum would likely begin a statewide race at the head of the GOP pack.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink