Front-runners pulled off wins in both parties' primaries heading into November's election last night, setting up a battle between two big-name candidates in the race to replace outgoing Democratic Governor Mike Easley. Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue won a surprisingly wide victory over Treasurer Richard Moore, by a 56%-40% margin, to claim the Democratic nomination, while Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory won the Republican nomination with 46%; his nearest opponent, State Senator Fred Smith, scored 37%.

Perdue and Moore's Democratic contest had devolved into an expensive exercise in name-calling and insinuations of links to white supremacist groups. The Republican side, while less acrimonious, was no less competitive, with Smith and two more candidates splitting the conservative vote, allowing the moderate McCrory to sneak through.

The Democratic candidate remains the likely favorite come November, and Republican McCrory has history holding him back as well. Several recent Charlotte Mayors, including Harvey Gantt and now-Rep. Sue Myrick, have sought and lost elections for statewide office. And while the state will likely vote heavily for John McCain come November, Democrats have won the governor's mansion in recent presidential years; the GOP has not controlled the executive office since 1993.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

While national Republicans have their favorite candidate and Democrats would be happy with either of their top two contenders, both primaries to replace outgoing North Carolina Governor Mike Easley look like close races, a new survey shows. With few governors contests truly contested this year, both parties are going to play in the Tar Heel State, and the primary could have a dramatic impact on which party retains a leg up in November.

The survey, from Mason-Dixon for WRAL-TV, polled 400 likely Democratic primary voters and 400 likely Republican primary voters for margins of error of +/- 4.9% each. The Democratic side included Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue, Treasurer Richard Moore and retired Air Force Colonel Dennis Nielsen. The Republican slate was made up of State Senator Fred Smith, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, attorney Bill Graham and former Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr.

Primary Election Matchups
Perdue 45
Moore 34
Nielsen 1

Smith 32
McCrory 31
Graham 7
Orr 5

McCrory is by far the most moderate of the Republicans, and many had speculated that a divided conservative base could help McCrory take the nomination. But with Orr and Graham failing to gain serious traction, Smith has steadily gained in a number of polls. No matter the incumbent, the Mayor of Charlotte always seems to have a rough time winning different jobs.

The Democratic race has been ugly for months, and though both candidates would likely outraise their Republican opponents, the winner of Tuesday's primary will have to spend some time healing the base before they get down to appealing to independents. If Perdue pulls out a big win, it would make that job easier, but a tight contest will only lead to bitter feelings.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

The race to replace outgoing Democratic Governor Mike Easley is fast moving up the list of most competitive governor's contests this year, primarily as two leading Democrats slug it out for their party's nomination. A new poll out today shows the race neck-and-neck with just a month to go before voters head to the ballot box. The tension on the Democratic side is made worse for the party as Republicans seem to be favoring a more moderate candidate who would likely be their party's strongest candidate.

The survey, conducted by Virginia-based TelOpinion Research for the Civitas Institute, tested 335 likely Republican primary voters and 441 voters likely to cast ballots in the Democratic primary, for margins of error of +/- 5.35% and 4.7%, respectively. Conducted 4/9-10, Democrats Beverly Perdue, the state's Lieutenant Governor, and Richard Moore, the state Treasurer, were tested, as well as Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, State Senator Fred Smith, attorney Bill Graham and former State Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr, all Republicans.

Primary Election Matchups
(All / Dem / Ind)
Moore 37 / 37 / 31 (+14 from last, 2/20-21)
Perdue 36 / 35 / 46 (+8)

(All / GOP / Ind)
McCrory 28 / 27 / 34 (+10)
Smith 19 / 19 / 17 (+2)
Graham 5 / 5 / 2 (nc)
Orr 4 / 5 / 2 (nc)

Moore and Perdue have been attacking each other for months for taking money from Wall Street donors, over each others' education proposals and other topics. In fact, the heat has grown so intense that last week Perdue decided to cancel her advertisements attacking Moore, though Moore says he will continue running ads questioning his rival's record.

Interestingly, both candidates have made an issue of their support for Barack Obama, who is running well ahead in polls there. Perdue has sent mailers to African American households, while Moore has run radio spots on stations with heavily African American audiences.

On the other side, Smith, Graham and Orr are all seen as more conservative than McCrory, who announced his candidacy late in the game and is seen as a strong contender should he face off with either of the two Democrats. But being mayor of Charlotte, a position McCrory has held for longer than any other person, has been a harbinger of difficulty as a statewide candidate in recent decades. Each of McCrory's four immediate predecessors have run and lost for statewide office, though Sue Myrick made a comeback and now represents the city in Congress.

In a year with few competitive gubernatorial races, though, North Carolina could prove a surprisingly tight contest. While John McCain is favored to pick up the state's electoral votes and Senator Elizabeth Dole looks likely to win re-election, Easley won twice as Republicans cruised, making a Democratic victory not too far-fetched.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Both Democrats and Republicans face contentious and close fights in primaries to replace retiring North Carolina Governor Mike Easley, a new poll shows. While Democrats appear in better position to keep the seat, Republicans are holding out hope that they can steal one of the last remaining southern governorships still in Democratic hands.

The poll, conducted by the Civitas Institute, was conducted among 800 likely voters between 2/20-21. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.7%, while the Democratic subsample, of 400 voters, is +/- 5% and the Republican sample, of 296 voters, is accurate to within +/- 6%. Democrats Beverly Perdue, the state's Lieutenant Governor, and State Treasurer Richard Moore were surveyed, along with Republicans Pat McCrory, the mayor of Charlotte, State Senator Fred Smith, former State Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr and businessman Bill Graham.

Democratic Primary Election Matchup
Perdue 28 (-6 from last poll, in 1/08)
Moore 23 (-1)

Republican Primary Election Matchup
McCrory 18 (-1)
Smith 17 (+3)
Graham 5 (-7)
Orr 4 (-1)

The primary, to be held on May 6, remains wide open on both sides. National Republicans prefer McCrory, the best-known candidate in the GOP field, to other candidates, but his more moderate voting record could prove a problem to the Republican electorate. A runoff, if needed, will be held June 24.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

After months of bitter feuding in the Democratic primary, the party still seems poised to maintain the governor's mansion as North Carolina Governor Mike Easley is forced out by term limits. Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue and Treasurer Richard Moore are feuding over school tuition increases and development of a region known as Roanoke Rapids, and while the fighting has gotten ugly at times, it's better than the Republican field. Each candidate on the other side of the aisle is barely known by anyone.

But all is not lost for the GOP: Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory officially entered the race yesterday, just four months before the primary. The entry is no surprise. McCrory has been making calls to top Republicans around the state for a few weeks, and the state Board of Elections is still trying to determine whether the $600,000 in his Mayoral campaign account is eligible for a statewide race.

Democrats have held the governor's mansion in North Carolina for four consecutive terms, and the state is one of a very few in the South where the Democratic Party has yet to collapse. Still, a recent poll for McCrory showed him running three points ahead of Perdue and a point behind Moore in general election matchups.

McCrory's biggest challenge will be getting through a primary that, while boring, has been going on for months. Attorney Bill Graham, former State Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr and State Senator Fred Smith are all running to the right, likely leaving the middle to McCrory. The same poll from November showed McCrory up just one point on Smith in a primary, giving the other candidates a chance to pile on.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Until now, the race to replace outgoing North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley has been dominated by an increasingly nasty Democratic primary. Lieutenant Gov. Beverly Perdue and Treasurer Richard Moore have been slugging it out for months, trading barbs and charges over their respective records.

The Republican race, by contrast, has been marked by virtually unknown candidates, including attorney Bill Graham, former state Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr and State Senator Fred Smith. Finally, though, Republicans think they have found a real candidate, and a poll conducted for Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory shows the big city mayor could make the race competitive.

The poll, conducted between 11/12-15 by Washington- and Houston-based Voter/Consumer Research, surveyed 501 registered voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%, while a separate sample included 301 Republican primary voters for a margin of error of +/- 6%. All six candidates were tested.

General Election Matchups
McCrory 39
Perdue 36

Moore 37
McCrory 36

Primary Election Matchup
McCrory 20
Smith 19
Graham 12
Orr 9

McCrory has yet to officially make up his mind on the race, and continues consulting with family and supporters before his anticipated announcement, a spokeswoman said. That announcement is likely to come shortly after the new year.

While McCrory would make the race competitive for Republicans, he might have a difficult time making it out of the GOP primary. The three other candidates would all be running to the right, and conservatives would likely choose Smith, Graham or Orr over the more moderate McCrory. Still, having been elected to seven two-year terms in a big city, Republicans might decide to give him a pass in the primary with the hope that he would attract enough urban support to take the seat back for the GOP.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

It is highly impolite to ask a person's age, and heaven knows a guess is guaranteed to insult, no matter if it's high or low. But an intrepid, and brave, reporter for the Raleigh News Observer wanted to know exactly how old North Carolina Lieutenant Gov. Beverly Perdue really is.

Perdue, Ryan Teague Beckwith noted, has recently said she was born in 1947. But earlier documents show her birthdate listed as 1948. A spokesman said she changed her date of birth in order to please her first husband, whom she divorced in 1994. That first husband was seven months younger than Perdue, something he apparently didn't like to advertise.

The issue is not going to lose an election by itself for Perdue, who is currently locked in a Democratic primary contest with State Treasurer Richard Moore to replace term-limited Gov. Mike Easley. But if any more small fibs come out, a campaign commercial could be forthcoming. A good lesson: Nothing helps a campaign more than a good researcher, and nothing hurts a campaign more than a reporter digging in old files.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

An Elon University poll out today shows what are shaping up to be two hot contests in the race to replace term-limited North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley. The poll has small subsamples, with correspondingly high margins of error, and campaigning is not seriously underway yet, but in both parties no one is close to a lock for the nominations.

Tested were Lieutenant Gov. Beverly Perdue and Treasurer Richard Moore, both Democrats, and attorney Bill Graham, former North Carolina Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr and State Senator Fred Smith, all Republicans.

Democrats
Perdue 35
Moore 27
Too early 19
Undecided 19

Republicans
Graham 12
Orr 11
Smith 11
Too early 36
Undecided 31

Which Party Will You Vote For In '08?
Democratic 35
Republican 32
Too early 17
Undecided 16

The poll, conducted 9/24-27, was released the day after Perdue officially launched her campaign to become the first female Tar Heel chief executive. Moore has already taken aim at some of Perdue's positions, foreshadowing what could be an ugly and expensive primary.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:55 PM | Email Author | Permalink