MT Incumbents Safe
In a state that is likely to vote for John McCain over either Democratic candidate this Fall, two incumbent Democrats look increasingly likely to cruise to re-election. While Senator Max Baucus and Governor Brian Schweitzer never expected fierce challenges, their easy paths come in a state that, like Virginia and New Hampshire, have dealt increasingly severe blows to Republicans in recent years.
Baucus, who has served five terms in the Senate, has usually faced easy contests. The lone exception came in 1996, when he beat Republican Denny Rehberg by five points, or a little over 19,000 votes, despite outspending him by a three-to-one margin. Rehberg, now the state's sole member of the House, rebuffed GOP entreaties to run against Baucus this year.
In order to dissuade a challenge, Baucus built a massive war chest, banking nearly $6.3 million through the end of 2007, more than he spent in all of 2002, when he took 63% against a Republican who spent about $1.8 million on his own bid. When filing closed March 20, Baucus faced only a small handful of candidates, including State Rep. Mike Lange, the former House Majority Leader, the only serious candidate to jump in the race.
Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer has never won a race easily. He lost his first bid for public office, against then-Senator Conrad Burns in 2000, by a narrow four-point margin, before defeating Republican Secretary of State Bob Brown in the 2004 race for governor by a similar four-point margin, winning by 20,000 votes as President Bush carried the state by twenty points.
This year, Schweitzer and running mate John Bohlinger, a former Republican State Senator, are running for re-election against two potential Democratic tickets and two pairs of GOP hopefuls. After the June 3 primary, Schweitzer and Bohlinger are likely to face off with State Senator Roy Brown and businessman Steve Daines, the front-runners for the Republican nominations. The Schweitzer-led ticket has raised more than $1.2 million for the race so far, while Brown's team is far behind with just over $200,000 in the bank.
The two tickets will also face off against Libertarian Stan Jones, a business consultant who has run several times before, including taking more than 10,000 votes as Democrat Jon Tester beat Republican Senator Burns in 2006 by just 2,500 votes. Jones is known around his Bozeman home for his unusual blue skin, a result of a condition called argyria, which he got after charging silver wires in a glass of Bozeman tap water, as the Washington Post wrote in a Jones profile after 2006.
Montana was the one down-note for Democrats in 2006, as the party lost control of the State House while maintaining just a two-seat advantage in the State Senate. Democrats will be well-funded, though, thanks to an extended presidential nomination fight: Both Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are scheduled to be in Butte on April 5 for the state party's annual Mansfield-Metcalf dinner, ahead of the state's presidential primary, which also takes place June 3.