There is now supporting data for those concerned about the political repercussions of Gov. Deval Patrick's (D) push for a law change giving him the power to appoint an interim senator.

A new survey by Suffolk University, released the same day Patrick appointed Paul Kirk to the open Senate seat, finds 45% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Patrick, while just 42% view him favorably (Sept. 12-15, 500 RV, MoE +/- 4.4%). He has a similar 42% job approval rating, with 49% disapproving. Just 29% say he deserves to be re-elected; 56% say it's time to elect someone else.

Still, there are no signs that the state is hankering for a change in party control. Asked whether it's time for a Republican governor, 54% said no and 35% said yes. And Patrick outperforms potential GOP and independent challengers: Charlie Baker (R), the former Harvard Pilgrim CEO; Christy Mihos (R), a businessman; and State Treas. Tim Cahill, an independent.

Patrick 36 - Baker 14 - Cahill 23 - Und 26

Patrick 36 - Mihos 17 - Cahill 24 - Und 23

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 02:20 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Another poll gives Massachusetts Democrats reason for concern about the gubernatorial race next year. A Rasmussen survey pitting Gov. Deval Patrick (D) losing ground in head-to-head matchups with potential Republican opponents.

General Election Matchups
Mihos 40 (-1 from 6/24)
Patrick 35 (-5)
Other 11 (+1)
Not Sure 15 (+6)

Patrick 40 (-1)
Baker 39 (+3)
Other 7 (-5)
Not Sure 15 (+4)

Of course, there is still a potential third-party candidacy from former Democrat and current state Treasurer Tim Cahill. His entry would certainly shake up these numbers.

Fav/Unfav Ratings
Patrick 40 / 56
Mihos 50 / 30
Baker 40 / 30

Patrick has a job approval rating of 39 percent, while 60 percent disapprove. President Obama's approval rating is nearly the reverse at this point: 59 percent approve, 41 percent disapprove.

Rasmussen also asked voters whether Patrick should have the right, as Sen. Ted Kennedy has requested, to appoint an interim replacement in the Senate should a vacancy occur. Only 52 percent said yes, while 40 percent said no. Sixty-six percent still support having a special election to permanently fill any vacancy, as opposed to 27 percent who think the governor should fill it.

The IVR survey of 500 likely Massachusetts voters was conducted on August 20, and had a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent.

Posted by Mike Memoli at 11:37 AM | Email Author | Permalink

A new survey conducted by Opinion Dynamics for MassInsight confirms that Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (D) faces a steep climb in his bid for re-election in 2012.

General Election Matchup (w/leaners)
Cahill (I) 27
Patrick (D) 25
Baker (R) 23
Don't Know 24

Cahill (I) 29
Patrick (D) 27
Mihos (R) 21
Don't Know 24

State Treasurer Tim Cahill has switched from Democrat to independent with most expecting he will run for governor. But without Cahill in the race, Patrick would then trail one potential Republican candidate, former Harvard Pilgrim CEO Charlie Baker, 42-36, with 22 percent undecided.

The poll also found that Patrick's approval rating is perilously low, with 19 percent giving him a positive rating compared to 77 percent who disapprove of his performance. The survey of 445 registered voters was conducted from July 31 to August 3.

You can expect this race to get a lot of attention because in 2006, Patrick in many ways tested the themes that were central to President Obama's 2008 campaign. Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, is an adviser to Patrick's re-election bid.

Posted by Mike Memoli at 03:21 PM | Email Author | Permalink