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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilso (AIM: PoliticsNation)

Blog Home Page --> Elections

SCOTUS Allows Voter IDs

The Supreme Court yesterday upheld an Indiana law that requires voters to show photo identification before casting a ballot, a decision that could have wide-ranging implications not only on Hoosier State voters but on residents around the country as more states prepare similar laws. The six-to-three ruling allowed the Indiana law, which remains in force, to stand, drawing criticism from Democrats and civil liberties groups that maintain it will disenfranchise minority voters.

Twenty-five states have some form of voter identification law on the book, the New York Times reports, and in several states the legislature is in some stage of consideration of new measures. Identification laws have been challenged before, and largely because of a Georgia statute, Federal Election Commission nominee Hans von Spakovsky has been held up by Democrats who oppose his view on the subject.

The ruling, said some election law experts, did not validate all voter identification laws, though it did shift the burden of proof to groups who claim to be disenfranchised by such laws. "The court specifically left open the possibility of lawsuits against ID laws that burden specific groups of citizens like older voters, poor voters and students," New York University law professor Wendy Weiser told the Times.

Civil liberties organizations say the Indiana law and those similar to it can hinder minority and elderly voting, as those are the demographics least likely to have state-issued identification. Both groups tend to vote heavily Democratic, a fact not lost on either party; Republicans generally favor voter identification laws, while Democrats oppose them. In a statement, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid pointed out that every Republican in the Indiana legislature voted for the measure, while every Democrat opposed it.

Congressional Democrats reacted harshly to the ruling. "The Indiana law and others like it are roadblocks to democracy - these laws place an unnecessary burden on elderly and low-income voters, not to mention other voters of disparate racial and ethnic backgrounds, among others," Reid said in the statement. "As November approaches, Americans must remain vigilant to protect the right to vote in the face of this and other schemes to depress turnout."

"The Court's decision today places obstacles to the fundamental rights of American citizens -- especially the poor, the elderly, and individuals with disabilities -- to participate in the electoral process," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in her own statement. "Requiring American citizens pay for underlying documents needed for an identification card and travel to distant motor vehicle locations for processing hinders -- and diminishes -- their right to vote."

Four opinions in the case took widely different paths to reaching their conclusions. Justices John Paul Stevens, Anthony Kennedy and John Roberts argued the state's right to prevent voter fraud superseded the burden on voters. A concurring opinion said the law was justified and mocked opposition to the measure as irrelevant; Justices Clarence Thomas and Sam Alito joined author Antonin Scalia in that opinion.

Ruth Bader Ginsburg and David Souter authored the dissenting opinion, while Justice Stephen Breyer dissented on his own.

Changing PA

As independent and Republican voters flocked to Pennsylvania courthouses and county buildings in recent weeks to change their voting registration in advance of the state's April 22 primaries, they managed to also change generations of history: Voter registration in Bucks and Montgomery Counties, both in suburban Philadelphia, has flipped from Republican to Democratic, the New York Times reports.

The Philadelphia suburbs featured some of the most hotly contested battlegrounds in 2006. Democrats made strong bids for three GOP-held seats and beat incumbents Curt Weldon and Mike Fitzpatrick, while narrowly missing picking off Jim Gerlach's more exurban district as well. All three districts, the state's Sixth, Seventh and Eighth, voted for both Al Gore and John Kerry, though by very narrow margins, and have been trending increasingly Democratic in recent years.

Of the four counties that ring Philadelphia, Chester and Delaware Counties retain Republican registration advantages. Gerlach's Sixth District includes the outer portions of Chester and Montgomery Counties; Weldon's old Seventh District, represented by freshman Democrat Joe Sestak, is heavily centered in Delaware County; and Fitzpatrick's Eighth District, held by freshman Democrat Patrick Murphy, has all of Bucks County within its borders.

The new boon comes after Democrats lost dozens of seats in the South during the 1990s and needed to find new voters to whom to appeal in order to regain their lost majority. They found early success with appeals to suburban voters, and, in recent years, those efforts have paid off most notably around Philadelphia, the suburbs of Chicago and even exurban New York City, both on Long Island and north through the Hudson Valley.

Opportunities for the party's gains don't stop at the state's borders; along with Gerlach, districts currently represented by New Jersey Republicans Jim Saxton and Frank LoBiondo are increasingly moving Democratic as well, and when Republican Rep. Mike Castle retires Democrats will be heavily favored to take over his Delaware at-large seat.

As Republicans get used to the minority, their efforts will turn more toward searching for their own new voters to reach. Until they find that group, the GOP could see more counties, historically Republican, shift to Democratic columns.

SCOTUS Surprises WA Parties

In a decision that took the Washington State Democratic and Republican Parties by surprise, the Supreme Court reversed an Appeals Court decision to uphold a controversial new method for choosing general election candidates. The move rejected party lawyers' arguments that they retain First Amendment rights of association when nominating a candidate. The 7-2 decision upheld a voter-approved top-two primary system wherein the two candidates with the most votes in a primary would advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation.

The method for choosing candidates, passed by voter initiative after the Supreme Court struck down the previous system, known as the blanket primary, has been tied up in courts since it was passed in 2004. The Court ended the blanket primary, under which a voter could vote for a Republican for governor and a Democrat for Congress in the same primary, as parties argued the process robbed them of control over their own nominating contests.

Under the system, party attorneys argued, David Duke had been allowed to run as a Republican in Louisiana even as the GOP rejected his white supremacist beliefs, and Lyndon LaRouche was allowed to run as a Democrat for president, though party leaders rejected his beliefs as well. It is the domain of the parties, the Court agreed during the blanket primary debate, to control who their nominee is by controlling who votes in their primaries.

Justice Clarence Thomas, writing for five of the seven-member majority, said the voter-approved method was sound, and that it is the domain of the states to control elections. Therefore, the initiative passed muster as the will of the voters. A top-two system, Thomas wrote, would be constitutional because the primary does not actually nominate candidates from a particular party, it simply advances those who have won. Initiative 872 was widely popular, by Washington State standards, garnering almost 60% of the vote in 2004.

Justices Antonin Scalia and Anthony Kennedy dissented, saying the rights of the parties were being infringed. "The electorate's perception of a political party's beliefs is colored by its perception of those who support the party," Scalia wrote for the pair. "[A] party's defining act is the selection of a candidate and advocacy of that candidate's election by conferring upon him the party's endorsement."

That view meshed perfectly with the argument Washington State Republican Party attorney John White told Politics Nation after he spoke before the court. "The ability of a political party to select its message and messengers is really what a political party is all about," White said in October. White had voiced optimism given the reactions from justices, as had a top lawyer for the State Democratic Party.

Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Sam Alito joined the majority with a concurring opinion, though they helped narrow the scope of the decision. Washington State Democratic Party attorney David McDonald said the ruling maintains that the party keeps the right to bestow its blessings on certain candidates. The ballot voters will actually see will simply list the parties each candidate prefers, instead of adopting a party identifier. "Clearly, they're saying we have a right to nominate our candidates," McDonald said after reading today's opinions. "The existing ballot form [in which candidates are listed along with their party of choice] doesn't work."

McDonald painted that as at least a partial victory for the parties, and said the ruling shows the Court is still skeptical of the state's ability to come up with a ballot design that passes constitutional muster. "Roberts and Alito were skeptical that they could come up with a ballot design," he said. The decision "is actually pretty narrow."

The decision could alter several states' election methods. The Washington State blanket primary was ruled unconstitutional as part of a suit that challenged California's identical system, in California Democratic Party v. Jones, which was argued in 2000. Alaska also lost their primary in the case.

The impact, for California, was minimal: Voters had only been allowed to cast ballots for any primary candidate since 1996. But the Washington State system had been in place since 1935, and the method under which parties have held primaries since the Jones case has stirred voter dissatisfaction with both parties, as they are now required to register by party on the day of the primary.

Now, Washingtonians will again be able to vote for any candidate they choose in the first step of balloting. It will be a rare occurrence in which two members of the same party make it to the general election together, but it's not out of the question: In 1980, now-U.S. Rep. Jim McDermott ousted Democratic Governor Dixie Lee Ray in the primary, then went on to lose the general election to Republican John Spellman. Ray, the second-place finisher in the primary, received 70,000 more votes than Spellman did in the GOP primary.

The "Cajun primary," so-called because it is derived from a system Louisiana still uses, will begin with this year's primary contests, which will happen in August, Secretary of State Sam Reed told the Associated Press. Reed has been an outspoken advocate of the new system, to the chagrin of both his own Republican Party and the opposing Democrats.

Candidates Hit By Bad Weather

FORT WASHINGTON, Maryland -- Sometimes, even the pressure of an impending election can be put on hold when Mother Nature has her way. High winds in the Washington, D.C. area have reaked havoc on last-minute campaigning ahead of the region's primaries on Tuesday, causing cancellations and delays for candidates. At a Hillary Clinton event in Manassas earlier this afternoon, supporters braved heavy gusts and watched more than a few large tree branches come down across the street.

In Fort Washington, just across the Potomac River from Washington, Donna Edwards, a congressional candidate running against incumbent Democratic Rep. Al Wynn, had to cancel an appearance at a local African American festival when the community center in which it was held lost power three times.

Clinton, planning to make stops in southern Virginia before reaching Maryland voters tonight, had to suspend an event planned for Roanoke this afternoon, citing inclement weather. She will attend a rally in Bowie, Maryland later tonight as planned, while husband Bill Clinton will hit Roanoke tomorrow.

Barack Obama campaigned in Alexandria today, on the Virginia side of the Potomac, before heading south to Virginia Beach. He will try the same Roanoke-to-Maryland route Clinton tried today, with a stop in Roanoke planned before a rally tomorrow night in College Park.

Read This

Looking for the perfect holiday gift for the political junkie in your life? Look no farther than the Almanac of American Politics, an 1800-page compendium of the national political landscape.

The editor, Charlie Mahtesian, is something of a mentor to Politics Nation, and because he just put together such a comprehensive look at the national political landscape, he knows more about every race around the country than virtually anyone out there.

Check out our extended sit-down interview with Mahtesian, in which he points to some of the freshman members of Congress who have the potential to lead their parties (Reps. Kevin McCarthy, R-CA, and Kathy Castor, D-FL), the hottest races to watch next year (Kansas' Nancy Boyda fighting for re-election, Washington and Missouri governors' races and some Senate Republicans who could be in trouble) and the lessons learned from 2006.

Looking Ahead To 2010

New York

Of the freshmen governors elected in 2006, several are doing extraordinarily well. Ohio's Ted Strickland and Florida's Charlie Crist are routinely mentioned as potential vice presidential candidates. Chet Culver has his turn in the limelight as Democratic presidential candidates fawn over him. And even Maryland's Martin O'Malley is getting good press.

For New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer, freshman year has been a lot more difficult. Dogged by scandal, held up as a shining example of coddling illegal immigrants. After winning election easily, Spitzer's approval ratings have steadily tanked. A new Siena College poll shows just 33% of the state views his job performance as excellent or good, down from 55% in June. The trend line is getting progressively worse: In July, 46% rated him positively. It was 44% in September, and 41% in October.

Sure, the guy will raise a bijillion dollars for his 2010 re-election bid, and his biggest potential threat, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, has said he won't make a bid, but Spitzer had better do something to turn his numbers around. For starters, his party needs him to be popular if he is going to help Democrats re-take the New York State Senate, which would likely kick two Republicans out of Congressional districts after the 2012 redistricting.

Tennessee

He's not going to be president in 2008, but former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist said this week that he might be up for a bid for the governor's mansion in 2010. Incumbent Gov. Phil Bredesen is term limited that year, but Frist won't have an easy path to either the nomination or the general election. Reps. Zach Wamp and Marsha Blackburn have said they might be interested in running, and even freshman Sen. Bob Corker refused to completely rule out a run, according to the Knoxville News.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Lincoln Davis is actively contemplating a bid, and one can't rule out a comeback attempt from former Rep. Harold Ford Jr.

The state is somewhat unique in that the Lieutenant Governor, at the moment Republican Ron Ramsey, is the Speaker of the Senate, elected by his colleagues. Ramsey is also said to be considering a bid, but his base would be much less than in other states, where a lieutenant governor faces voters every four years.

South Dakota

Speaking of term-limited governors and their possible successors, Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin says she won't rule out a governor's bid in 2010, when Republican Gov. Mike Rounds will not be on the ballot. If Herseth Sandlin runs for the executive post, Rounds might be enticed to replace her in the House. It's not an unprecedented move; former Gov. Bill Janklow left the governor's mansion for Congress before he was forced to resign after a car accident killed a motorcyclist.

A further wrinkle, the Rapid City Journal reports: Herseth Sandlin did not rule out running for any other office in 2010, when Sen. John Thune is up for re-election. Thune, of course, narrowly defeated Tom Daschle in 2004, and Democrats would love to give him a taste of his own medicine. Odds are, though, that if Herseth Sandlin left the House, she would go for the seat Thune doesn't seek.

Dems Win Mississippi!

Sorry, John Arthur Eaves, not your race. As Democrats were on their way to losing every statewide race save one last night, the party got surprisingly good news in this reddest of red states. At the end of the night, the party took three State Senate seats and with them, control of the state's upper chamber.

Democrats had lost the Senate earlier in the year when State Sen. James Walley switched parties. Walley was among three Republican incumbents who went down to defeat, while just one Democratic incumbent lost. The party now holds a 28-25 seat majority, and after picking up one seat in the House, a much wider 76-46 majority in the State House.

The DLCC, which oversees thousands of state legislative races from Washington, cited a grocery tax, which Democrats tried to halve, a move the GOP resisted, as a key issue in this year's election. The wins came as Gov. Haley Barbour easily defeated Democratic challenger Eaves by a 58%-42% margin statewide.

Election Results

Democrats win Kentucky governorship, Virginia Senate, pick up one seat in New Jersey Senate:

Kentucky Governor (Democratic Pickup)
Steve Beshear/Dan Mongiardo (D) -- 59%
Ernie Fletcher/Robbie Rudolph (R-inc) -- 41%
(100% reporting)

Kentucky Secretary Of State (Republican Hold)
Trey Grayson (R-inc) -- 57%
Bruce Hendrickson (D) -- 43%
(100% reporting)

Mississippi Governor (Republican Hold)
Haley Barbour (R-inc) -- 58%
John Arthur Eaves (D) -- 42%
(96% reporting as of 10:35pm)

Virginia State Senate
District 1 (Democratic Pickup)
John Miller (D) -- 51%
Tricia Stall (R) -- 49%
(100% reporting)

District 6 (Democratic Pickup)
Ralph Northam (D) -- 54%
Nick Rerras (R-inc) -- 46%
(100% reporting)

District 27 (Republican hold)
Jill Holtzman Vogel (R) -- 48%
Karen Schultz (D) -- 47%
Donald Marro (I) -- 4%
(100% reporting)

District 34 (Democratic pickup)
Chap Petersen (D) -- 55%
Jeannemarie Devolites Davis (R-inc) -- 45%
(100% reporting)

District 37 (Republican hold)
Ken Cuccinelli (R-inc) -- 50.02%
Janet Oleszek (D) -- 49.77%
(100% reporting)

District 39 (Democratic pickup)
George Barker (D) -- 51%
Jay O'Brien (R-inc) -- 49%
(100% reporting)

New Jersey State Senate
District 1 (Democratic Pickup)
Jeff Van Drew (D) -- 56%
Nicholas Asselta (R-inc) -- 44%
(93% reporting)

District 2 (Democratic Pickup)
Jim Whelan (D) -- 57%
Sonny McCullough (R-inc) -- 43%
(100% reporting)

District 12 (Republican Pickup)
Jennifer Beck (R) -- 54%
Ellen Karcher (D-inc) -- 46%
(99% reporting)

District 39 (Republican hold
Gerald Cardinale (R-inc) -- 55%
Joe Ariyan (D) -- 45%
(100% reporting)

Ohio 05 Special Election (General Election 12/11)
Bob Latta (R) -- 44%
Steve Buehrer (R) -- 40%
Mark Hollenbaugh (R) -- 7%
Fred Pieper (R) -- 6%
Mike Smitley (R) -- 4%
(100% reporting)

King County Prosecutor (Republican hold)
Dan Satterberg (R) -- 54%
Bill Sherman (D) -- 46%
(99% reporting)

King County Council District 6 (Republican hold)
Jane Hague (R-inc) -- 56%
Richard Pope (D) -- 41%
(97% reporting)

IA Youth Turnout Gets Preview

IOWA CITY -- Far from the hubs where media will cast their attention as polls close tonight, this Iowa college town heads to the polls today to determine whether or not underclassmen will be permitted to go to bars. The measure, to which bar owners adjacent to the University of Iowa campus are showing their opposition in force, could have ramifications far beyond the Thursday night boozing crowd.

While many Iowa students will be home for winter break when the January 3rd caucuses roll around, some see the huge voter turnout in Iowa City as evidence that the youth vote may be interested and engaged enough to actually caucus. As of Monday, when early voting closed, more than 8,000 early votes had been cast, a huge increase over the record high, set at 4500 in 2005, according to the Des Moines Register.

University of Iowa professor David Redlawsk estimates that, while previous city elections featured just a few hundred students, this election may bring more than 6,000 student votes, presumably heavily opposed to the measure, which would prohibit 19- and 20-year olds from entering bars after 10 p.m.

Seemingly every four years, some candidate claims they will outperform others among younger voters. Those forecasts virtually never pan out, as the youth vote has yet to materialize in significant numbers in an Iowa caucus. The Iowa Democratic Party estimates that, in 2004, 18-34 year olds made up just 10% of caucus-goers, while those over the age of 65 made up 32% of attendees.

This year's election in Iowa Falls, in which younger voters are apparently turning out in droves, could foreshadow a stronger presence of younger voters than previous years. Still, many have claimed the mantle of the younger voter's candidate, and almost always at their peril. One former strategist for Howard Dean's 2004 campaign, asked by Politics Nation to chat about the benefits reliance on the youth vote brings, responded with a lesson many campaigns have learned in past years: "What youth vote?"

Tomorrow's Forecast

In The West Wing, as President Jed Bartlett is running for re-election, one character gets nervous because it's raining in Oregon on Election Day. A later scene shows Will Bailey, played by Joshua Malina, precipitously looks to the heavens and asks for rain just hours before the polls close, leaving his candidate, we are led to believe, the winner.

Rain, the theory goes, depresses voter turnout. Other weather can also have a dampening effect on turnout. Here, then, with the Official Real Clear Politics Election Day Weather Forecast, special RCP Weather Correspondent Steve Shepard:

A cold front currently across the Ohio River valley will affect weather conditions in the following areas, bringing with it light precipitation and the coldest air of the season thus far.

Virginia: Mainly light rain showers associated with a cold front should clear out from west to east (overnight across the Blue Ridge, by daybreak in the Northern Va. suburbs of D.C., and by lunchtime in the Tidewater area), and skies will clear by afternoon. It will be breezy, with high temperatures ranging from the mid 40s across the higher elevations, to 55 in the D.C. suburbs, and into the lower 60s south and east.

New Jersey: Morning showers will give way to sun, clouds, and brisk winds in the afternoon. Highs will range from the upper 40s north and west to the mid 50s down the shore.

Mississippi: North: Sunny and cooler, with highs in the mid 50s. Along the Gulf Coast, a slight chance of a shower, otherwise more clouds than sun, with temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70.

Kentucky: Sunny, and much colder, with highs only in the 40s across much of the Commonwealth, which is between 20-30 degrees colder than today. Breezy along the Cumberland Plateau.

Toledo, Ohio [Ed. note: The primary election to replace the late Rep. Paul Gillmore takes place in Ohio's 5th District tomorrow]: Cloudy and colder. Scattered rain and snow showers are possible, though there will be no snow accumulation. Brisk west winds will make temperatures feel a bit colder than the lower 40s.

Previewing Election Day

A preview of the races we're watching tomorrow:

Kentucky Governor
Steve Beshear/Dan Mongiardo (D)
Ernie Fletcher/Robbie Rudolph (R-inc)

Beshear is expected to cruise to victory tomorrow. Polls show him leading Fletcher by fifteen to twenty points. The Washington Post on Sunday even spotlighted the race as a sign that Democrats are undergoing a resurgence in the Bluegrass State.

Kentucky Secretary Of State
Trey Grayson (R-inc)
Bruce Hendrickson (D)

Grayson has spent close to $1 million on the race, and while former Pineville Mayor Bruce Hendrickson has spent only $18,000, a recent poll showed him trailing Grayson by just 4 points with 24% undecided. In a landslide gubernatorial race, no matter how much of a future Grayson has in state politics, he may be the victim of a Democratic tide.

Mississippi Governor
Haley Barbour (R-inc)
John Arthur Eaves (D)

Eaves has spent a good amount of his own money, but Barbour has spent more, and is likely to cruise to an easy re-election, likely becoming the only governor this year to successfully carry his state for his own party.

Virginia State Senate
District 1 (Republican Open Seat)
John Miller (D)
Tricia Stall (R)

District 6
Nick Rerras (R-inc)
Ralph Northam (D)

District 27 (Republican Open Seat)
Karen Schultz (D)
Jill Holtzman Vogel (R)
Donald Marro (I)

District 34
Jeannemarie Devolites Davis (R-inc)
Chap Petersen (D)

District 37
Ken Cuccinelli (R-inc)
Janet Oleszek (D)

District 39
Jay O'Brien (R-inc)
George Barker (D)

Republicans admit that the game is being played virtually entirely on their side of the field. Democrats need just four seats to retake the State Senate, and given recent polls showing the party preferred by a majority of Virginians, this year presents their best shot in the eight years since they lost control to Republicans. Major candidates are all up on the air, with the GOP stressing their support for immigration reform and Democrats pointing to popular Gov. Tim Kaine as their model.

New Jersey State Senate
District 1
Nicholas Asselta (R-inc)
Jeff Van Drew (D)

District 2
Sonny McCullough (R-inc)
Jim Whelan (D)

District 12
Ellen Karcher (D-inc)
Jennifer Beck (R)

District 39
Gerald Cardinale (R-inc)
Joe Ariyan (D)

Democrats hold a 22-18 seat advantage in the legislature, and this year brings just a few strong opportunities for parties to pick up a seat or two. Recent Zogby polls showed Van Drew and Whelan leading their Republican opponents 45%-42% and 50%-37%, respectively, where the margin of error was +/- 5%. Karcher is in enough trouble to have merited a weekend visit from State Senate President Dick Codey.

The real theme of this year's races: Unbelievable amounts of money. Van Drew, Whelan and Karcher have all out-raised their opponents, on the order of $3 million, $3 million and somewhere around $5 million, respectively. Their Republican counterparts have scooped up more than $1 million each, but are still facing big funding gaps.

Salt Lake City Mayor
Ralph Becker (D)
Dave Buhler (R)

Running to replace Democrat Rocky Anderson, Becker, the state House Minority Leader, leads Buhler by 21 points in a Mason-Dixon poll conducted early last week. Though it's a conservative state, Becker looks likely to keep the seat in Democratic hands.

King County Prosecutor
Dan Satterberg (R)
Bill Sherman (D)

A local election in which Politics Nation is intensely interested. After long-time King County Prosecutor Norm Maleng passed away, in May, his assistant, Dan Satterberg, is facing off with Democratic activist Sherman in the general election. Maleng was the lone safe Republican in an increasingly Democratic county, home of Seattle, and did not face a serious challenge for decades. Now Satterberg, running as Maleng's successor, promises to make the office nonpartisan. Satterberg enjoys the support of a large number of liberal Democratic elected officials and may just pull off what would be a big coup.

King County Council District 6
Jane Hague (R-inc)
Richard Pope (D)

On the east side of Lake Washington, where Republicans still hold many state legislative and local seats, incumbent King County Councilwoman Jane Hague looked to be cruising to re-election. Even after being charged with a DUI, Hague did not face a serious challenger. Now, though, she is worried enough to have dumped more than $100,000 into her own race.

County Democrats are not backing Pope, though, and most of Hague's Democratic colleagues on the council want her back for four more years. What's wrong with Pope? He's run for office ten times, changed parties three times and been reprimanded by lots of judges throughout the county. If he wins, he will create some great headlines around the county for the next four years.