Here in Texas today, the RGA continues to crow about their 2009 victories and sound bullish about their 2010 prospects. But the DGA is responding by looking again at some of the familiar names they're putting on the ballot next year, saying it belies the idea of a promised GOP comeback. Check out the video here, which is being sent to the party organization's mailing list this afternoon:

More from the e-mail:

20 Republican governors. 500 conservative donors. A private resort in Texas. 3 days to finalize their comeback strategy... Sound like a bad dream? Unfortunately, it's all too real. And it's all happening right now in Austin, where the Republican Governors Association is holding their annual conference.

...

The "comeback" faces of the GOP include lackluster has-beens like John Kasich, former FOX News host and a leading figure at Lehman Brothers at the time of the bank's collapse, and Bill McCollum, a long-time politician/lobbyist whose crowning achievement in his 30 year congressional career is sponsoring the legislation that helped turn the housing market into a "big gambling casino." And the list only gets worse from there.

Posted by Mike Memoli at 03:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

While Democrats face competitive Senate races in a number of states carried last year by President Obama, three in particular could send shock waves through a party that stormed back to control Washington the last two cycles: President Obama's former Illinois seat, Vice President Biden's Delaware seat and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's seat in Nevada.

Based on recent polling, a shifting national mood and excellent candidate recruitment by the GOP, Republicans could be in position a year from now to win seats once held by three of the four most powerful elected officials in Washington. Should that happen, it wouldn't be at all surprising if states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Connecticut and Florida -- all of which Obama won last year -- elected Republicans as well.

In Illinois, the National Republican Senatorial Committee succeeded in recruiting Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) to give up his congressional district to run statewide. Meanwhile, Democrats -- including the White House -- were unable to convince state Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D) to run, as she eventually opted for re-election. Running instead are Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman and Chicago Urban League president Cheryle Jackson, who previously served as press secretary for disgraced governor Rod Blagojevich. Obama's appointed successor, Sen. Roland Burris (D-Ill.), opted not to run for reelection.

Limited polling in the state has shown Giannoulias ahead of his primary opponents and statistically tied with Kirk, who is expected to win the GOP primary. Whoever wins the Democratic primary will likely receive substantial support from the White House and Democratic National Committee, as the prospect of losing the president's former Senate seat two years after he was elected president would be embarrassing.

Republicans scored a coup in Delaware with the recruitment of Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.), who has won 11 statewide races including two for governor (in 1984 and 1988) and the past nine for the state's lone House seat. Biden won the seat for the seventh time in November 2008 -- when he was also elected vice president -- and Sen. Ted Kaufman (D-Del.), Biden's longtime chief of staff, was appointed to replace him. It was widely rumored that Kaufman, who will not run next year, would serve as a placeholder for Biden's son, state Attorney General Beau Biden, until the 2010 special election.

Castle has led Biden in the four polls released this year. However, the most recent one -- a DailyKos/Research 2000 survey out last month -- found Castle up by just a single point.

The third race of what could be a crushing trifecta for Democrats is in Nevada, where recent polling shows Majority Leader Harry Reid to be among the most vulnerable incumbent senators, despite the amount of power he wields in the Senate. Both of his potential Republican opponents -- former state party chair Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian, son of a famed UNLV basketball coach -- lead Reid by more than 5 points in general election matchups, and have led him in every poll that has been released.

Whoever takes on Reid will need to raise serious money in order to compete statewide, as Reid has a national network of donors and $8.7 million in the bank.

Still, the GOP is targeting Reid in hopes he will become the second Democratic leader in the Senate in six years to be defeated, following then-minority leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota, who was knocked out of office in 2004 by Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.).

Losing these three seats would be particularly embarrassing to President Obama and his party just two years after capturing the White House and expanding majorities in Congress. Beyond the humiliating symbolism, however, the defeats would deliver a serious blow to the party's advantage in the Senate -- and more than likely be just a few of the Democratic losses on Election Day 2010.

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 07:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Independent political observers and Democrats themselves have been saying for months that 2010 is shaping up as a bad year for Democratic candidates, and the latest Gallup generic congressional ballot test only reinforces the point. Not only do Republicans lead 48 percent to 44 percent, but independents now favor the GOP by 52 percent to 30 percent.

Although generic Republican candidates hold just a 4-point lead, the GOP's perpetual turnout advantage means their lead would likely be higher if the midterm elections were today. Even a single-digit lead for Democrats in Gallup's testing often only means the two parties will be competitive, as more registered voters identify with the Democratic Party but more Republicans go to the polls on Election Day.

In the final Gallup survey before the 1998 midterms, Republicans trailed by 9 points but still went on to win a small majority of House seats. In the 2002 midterms, Republicans were down 5 points just before the election but again kept a slim majority in the House.

A year before the 2006 midterm elections --when Democrats regained control of both houses of Congress -- generic congressional ballot testing forecast the shifting mood of the country. An August 2005 Gallup survey found Democrats leading by 12 points -- one of the widest margins between the parties Gallup had found since the GOP took back Congress in 1994.

That survey was far from the only one to show a shifting mood. This is the first Gallup survey to show Republicans leading this cycle, and while a year is a long time in politics, the poll falls in line with other signs pointing in the GOP's direction.

"It's better to look at a series of these polls than one of them, but the fact is Republicans haven't led the generic ballot since the stone ages," said David Wasserman, who analyzes House races for the Cook Political Report. "Any sort of deficit is dangerous for Democrats because their support is more heavily concentrated within a few base districts."

The last time Republicans led was September 2008, just after the Republican National Convention. The poll was an outlier, as no other generic ballot test by any other polling firm had shown Republicans leading in at least four years. None did soon after, either, and Democrats went on expand their majority to more than 75 seats in the House.

Further significance in the poll is the shift among independent voters. The 22-point advantage for Republicans is a far cry from July, when the two parties were statistically tied. The migration of independents toward the GOP mirrors what occurred in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections last week, when a Republican knocked off the incumbent governor in the Garden State and the GOP nominee won by nearly 20 points in the Old Dominion.

The independent swing shows in the new Pew Research survey also released today. It found incumbents -- most of which are Democrats these days -- in a perilous place, with just 52 percent saying they want their representative re-elected and only 34 percent say most representatives should be re-elected.

"Both measures are among the most negative in two decades of Pew Research surveys," Pew reports. "Other low points were during the 1994 and 2006 election cycles, when the party in power suffered large losses in midterm elections."

The latest Gallup survey was conducted Nov. 5-8 of 894 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percent. The Pew poll was taken Oct. 28-Nov. 8 of 1,644 registered voters.

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 05:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Gov. Tim Kaine, chair of the DNC, called President Obama's winning a Nobel Prize "an affirmation of the fact that the United States has returned to its longstanding role as a world leader."

"The President has made a conscious decision from the beginning of his presidency to reinvigorate diplomacy, by talking to our friends and our rivals," Kaine writes. "With this prize comes a sense of enormous pride, but also an enormous sense of humility about the work that remains if we are to resolve the global problems facing humanity. Democrats will continue to work with President Obama to keep moving America forward, as we continue in earnest to sow peace, progress and understanding around the world."

Meanwhile, the DNC communication team has paired the RNC's statement on Obama's win with these from Hamas and Taliban, lumping the opposition party with these extremist elements.

Hamas: "We believe he has been rewarded or judged based on good intentions towards peace but not on his achievement. It was too early to award him. He has not don't that much yet." - Ahmed Yousef, Deputy Foreign Minister of Hamas   Taliban: "We have seen no change in his strategy for peace. He has done nothing for peace in Afghanistan. He has not taken a single step for peace in Afghanistan or to make this country stable... We condemn the award of the Noble Peace Prize for Obama. We condemn the institute's awarding him the peace prize. We condemn this year's peace prize as unjust." - Taliban Spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid

Posted by Mike Memoli at 12:05 PM | Email Author | Permalink

At a fundraiser meant to boost the Democratic Party's chances in upcoming gubernatorial elections, President Obama acknowledged how the down economy has made it tough on state leaders, and warned that "the tough choices they'll have to make will not end anytime soon."

But he praised the work of the 28 Democrats who hold governor's offices across the country, adding: "What I hope has made their job easier and will continue to make their job easier is knowing that they've got a full committed partner in the White House." He also said the stimulus program has cushioned the blow somewhat, while arguing that health care reform was "absolutely critical" in continuing on the road to recovery.

As evidence, he cited a Robert Wood Johnson study that found that even in a best-case scenario, employers would see premiums rise 60 percent in the next decade.

"That kind of future is bad for entrepreneurs, it's bad for businesses, it's bad for the United States of America," he said. "We can't afford a health insurance system that hampers America's economy in the 21st century. We need a health system that unleashes its potential."

Continue reading "Obama To Democratic Governors: Tough Choices Still To Come" »

Posted by Mike Memoli at 03:15 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Democratic party identification is at its lowest mark since the second quarter of 2005, while GOP ID is at its highest point since the first quarter of 2006, according to Gallup's quarterly party identification report.

At 48% Democrat or lean-Democrat and 42% Republican or lean-Republican, the six-point gap is the smallest since 2005. Although the number of people identifying themselves as Republican has remained stable, more independents now lean Republican (15%) than Democrat (13%) for the first time in at least four years.

The report is based on five polls conducted of 5,090 adults between July 1 and Sept. 30.

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 04:20 PM | Email Author | Permalink

While the odds may have been in its favor, it was not a sure thing that Democratic governors would support President Obama's health care reform proposals en masse. Governors from both parties had worried about what reform would mean for the states -- espcially with respect to increased Medicaid costs.

Today, though, the leadership of the Democratic Governors Association announced that after "productive conversations in the past week with House and Senate leaders," the president has their full support on health care.

"We had productive conversations. The lawmakers heard our concerns and they understand where we're coming from," said West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin, a former DGA chairman and current chair emeritus. "While I want to see more details, I feel good about where this is headed and I want to see reform passed this year."

"Governors are doing our best to help families struggling to pay for health care. We're all grappling with state budgets that are strained with the spiraling cost of health care," said Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer, chairman of the DGA. "We need health insurance reform this year, and we support the President's goals."

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 03:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

The Republican National Committee outraised its Democratic counterpart by $1 million in the month of August, according to reports filed last week with the Federal Election Commission. The RNC pulled in $7.87 million last month, compared with the Demoratic National Committee's $6.89 million.

"The RNC had another very strong fundraising month in August," said RNC Chairman Michael Steele. "We remain committed to broadening the appeal of our party by taking a strong principled message on health care directly to the people."

The RNC has close to $21 million cash on hand, while the DNC ended the month with a little more than $15 million. In July, the DNC far outraised its GOP counterpart, taking in $9.28 million to the RNC's $6.26 million.

In August, the Democrats' House campaign arm outraised the GOP's, while the National Republican Senatorial Committee outraised the Dems for the second month in a row.

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 01:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

House Democrats' campaign arm is raising money with the help of a GOP congressman's outburst during President Obama's address to a joint session of Congress last night.

Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) has since apologized for interrupting the president with a shout of "You lie!" and Republican groups have noted instances when Democrats called George W. Bush a liar, but the Dems aren't taking this opportunity for granted.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has set a fundraising goal of $100,000 over the next two days. Here is an excerpt of the e-mail sent today to the DCCC's contact list:

Last night as President Obama addressed a joint session of Congress on the need for health insurance reform, Republican Congressman Joe Wilson of South Carolina actually screamed out "you lie" on the House floor in front of the full Congress and the entire nation.

Calling the President of the United States a liar in front of the nation is a new low even for House Republicans and it deserves the strongest response we can give. That's why we're issuing a special Rapid Response Alert.

Help us raise $100,000 in the next 48 Hours to send a message to Republicans like Congressman Joe Wilson that we will not stand for our President to be called a liar in front of the nation.

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 01:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

This summer, Organizing for America urged its mailing list to head to the office of their local representatives to talk health care. Even a Democrat wasn't thrilled with the deluge of constituents to offices. But now, President Obama's former campaign network is again directing supporters to target their representatives.

From an e-mail:

Last night, President Obama called on our representatives to pass health reform that brings stability and security to Americans who have insurance, affordable coverage to those who don't, and reins in the cost of care.

Now, it's our turn. After last night's speech, members of Congress have no doubt about where the President stands. But to win this fight, we must show that Americans from every state and every background support his plan -- and we need Congress to do the same.

The e-mail then lists the recipient's member of Congress and U.S. Senators, depending on the ZIP Code a user signed up with, and gives the phone number of their local offices.

Call your representatives, and tell whoever answers where you are from and that you watched the President's address.

Then tell them that you want your representatives to support the President's plan, ask them where they stand -- and thank them if they already clearly support it.

Don't forget to click here to let us know what they said.

Hundreds of thousands of folks will be calling, so please try again if you get a busy signal.

Posted by Mike Memoli at 12:24 PM | Email Author | Permalink

There was not quite the anticipated smack down from the White House this week when press secretary Robert Gibbs was asked about former Vice President Dick Cheney's comments on "Fox News Sunday" defending the so-called enhanced interrogation techniques that the Justice Department is now investigating.

On Monday, Gibbs simply called Cheney's comments the "same song and dance" seen from the very first day of the Obama administration, adding this kicker: "I'm not entirely sure that Dick Cheney's predictions on foreign policy have borne a whole lot of fruit over the last eight years in a way that have been either positive or, to the best of my recollection."

Now, the DNC is amplifying that latter point in a new television ad that will air on national cable television.

It includes the greatest hits of false Cheney promises, including: "My belief is that we will, in fact, be greeted as liberators"; and, "There is no doubt that Saddam Hussein now has weapons of mass destruction."

The ad does show Cheney saying this week that the "enhanced interrogation techniques were absolutely essential," but rebuts him on that point with another Republican, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). It closes with the tag line, "Dick Cheney: Wrong then, wrong now."

Posted by Mike Memoli at 02:02 PM | Email Author | Permalink

As Congress prepares to return next week amid an already heated battle over health care, Democrats continue to fight back against what they say is Republican scare tactics.

For instance, the Republican National Committee released a TV ad yesterday featuring Chairman Michael Steele accusing President Obama and Democrats of working against the interests of senior citizens by cutting Medicare. The Democratic National Committee said the GOP was simply down to its last resort in its attempts to "block health care reform" -- lying.

Today, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is slamming 26 House Republicans for a "say-anything strategy to kill health insurance reform" as they "masquerade as defenders of Medicare."

A press release headed for the Members' districts calls out 137 Republicans for voting earlier this year "to end Medicare as it's presently known." So, the release reads, "Steele's comments represent either an abrupt turnaround for a party with a long history of fighting against Medicare or just another hypocritical scare tactic to try and kill health insurance reform."

DCCC spokesman Ryan Rudominer says in the release that "Republicans' desperate attempt to portray their party as defenders of Medicare is nothing short of laughable hypocrisy and another shameless effort to exploit the fears of America's seniors."

Republicans included in the targeted hit include Leader John Boehner (Ohio), Whip Eric Cantor (Va.), Conference Chairman Mike Pence (Ind.) and NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions (Texas).

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 02:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

The Democratic Governors Association sounds increasingly confident about the two gubernatorial races being held this fall, citing recent developments in the New Jersey and Virginia contests that have voters taking a second look at Republican candidates who have lead in the polls.

In Virginia, officials say that this weekend's Washington Post report about Republican Bob McDonnell's thesis was "devastating," and will go down as the point in the campaign when his "persona as a moderate came crashing down." "He knows that's the ticket to success in Virginia," DGA executive director Nate Daschle said. "But the fact is, he is not" a moderate.

Meanwhile, Republican Chris Christie's favorable numbers are rising and his long-standing lead is "evaporating" after a series of stories that have New Jersey voters questioning his character, the party says.

"This is a candidate who entered the race talking about how he's the ethics candidate. Unfortunately for him, since then ethics have dogged his campaign," Daschle said. He mentioned "a string of ethical lapses," from reports of contacts with Karl Rove, to an undisclosed loan to a subordinate, and to recently revealed driving violations. "If this were the kind of thing where it was just one two or three events in isolation, you could chalk it up to a lack of judgment. But this is a string, a pattern of events that calls into question his character," Daschle said.

Continue reading "Dems Confident On '09 Gov Races, Eye '10 Pickups" »

Posted by Mike Memoli at 06:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Sen. Kennedy's office has posted a 54-page document listing all of his accomplishments in 47 years in office.

Senator Kennedy has authored more than 2,500 bills throughout his career in the United States Senate. Of those bills, several hundred have become Public Law.

Read the full document here.

Posted by Mike Memoli at 09:01 AM | Email Author | Permalink

The Democratic Party will honor its liberal lion at the DNC fall meeting in Austin next month. The chairman, Tim Kaine, released this statement:

Today we mourn the loss of one the greatest and most consequential political figures in American history with the passing of Senator Ted Kennedy.

Senator Kennedy was adored by millions of Americans and was respected by colleagues on both sides of the aisle for his energy, his passion, his humor, his compassion, his friendship and above all his commitment to serve his country in pursuit of a more common good for every American.

It is not an exaggeration to say that Senator Kennedy devoted his entire adult life - in the great tradition of the Kennedy family - to public service. And, in his forty-six years in the Senate, Senator Kennedy's primary focus - and the legacy he will be most remembered for - will be his work to improve the plight of ordinary Americans, to empower the powerless and to end the scourge of discrimination based on race, ethnicity, gender, sexual orientation, disability and economic background that was all too prevalent in an earlier time.

For his efforts to ensure civil and voting rights for minorities to equal rights for women, Senator Kennedy was a champion. For providing health care to millions of our nation's children to fighting for the cause and rights of workers and organized labor, Senator Kennedy was a hero. For working to improve education and educational opportunities for children and college students to fighting for the security and dignity of older Americans, Senator Kennedy was an icon. And, for his career-long pursuit of quality, affordable health care for every American, a cause he was devoted to until the very end, Senator Kennedy was an inspiration to millions of Americans who are fighting today for that just cause.

In the Senate, he was called the Lion. To the Democratic Party whose values and ideals were embodied in and shaped by this great man, he was a giant. To the American people, he will be remembered as one of the greatest and most accomplished legislators in American history. And to his family he will be remembered as a father, a husband, an uncle, a brother, a grandfather and a friend.

Our thoughts and prayers are with the entire Kennedy family as we mourn the loss and celebrate the extraordinary life of Senator Edward Moore Kennedy.

Posted by Mike Memoli at 08:35 AM | Email Author | Permalink

It was one year ago yesterday that Sen. Ted Kennedy made a surprise appearance at the Democratic National Convention in Denver, electrifying the Pepsi Center with a speech in which he said that in November, "the torch will be passed again to a new generation of Americans" with the election of Barack Obama. Re-read the full speech after the jump.

Continue reading ""The Torch Will Be Passed Again"" »

Posted by Mike Memoli at 08:25 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Democrats want to change the rhetoric on Main Street regarding health care reform, and fast, and they're hoping Republicans can help make that happen -- sort of.

In doing so, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has released individualized press releases to more than 20 congressional districts calling on GOP House members to "denounce Republican lies and scare tactics such as 'Death Panels' meant to kill health reform."

A press release sent to the district of National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions (Texas) states: "Representative Sessions needs to finally denounce the false and outrageous claim put out by Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, and others on the right that Americans 'will have to stand in front of Obama's 'death panel.' ' "

The offensive comes as liberal Democrats in the House and Senate are up in arms regarding their view that the administration is softening its stance on the inclusion of a public option in the reform bill. The public option has become the most prominent battling point now within the party, which is also facing a strong backlash from the other side.

In the meantime, the Democrats' House campaign committee wants to at least call out what they see as contradictory rhetoric.

"Republicans and their insurance company allies have shown repeatedly through their lies and shameless fear mongering that they will say anything to kill health insurance reform," DCCC spokesman Jennifer Crider says in the release. "Representative Sessions voted for 'end of life counseling' in 2003, that Republicans are now calling 'death panels.' Representative Sessions should defend his own record by denouncing Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, and other Republicans' false claim that Americans 'will have to stand in front of Obama's death panel' to receive care."

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 04:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Wishful thinking or smart strategy? On MSNBC this morning, former DNC chair Howard Dean seemed unfazed by the talk that the Obama administration is ready to drop the public option. He said that this is simply "politics," and that even if a public option is temporarily removed it might find it's way back into final legislation.

"The president knows very well that you aren't really going to have health care reform without a public option. But he also knows he has to get this out of the Senate," Dean said on "Morning Joe." "He's got a very important member of the Finance Committee, Kent Conrad, who doesn't want to vote for this bill if it's got a public option in it. And he knows he's not going to get any Republican votes, of any kind. So at the end of this day, this bill is going to be written by Democrats. It's got to get out of the Senate. And you only need a few Democrats to take out take out the public option."

He added that with Republicans unlikely to support any version of health care legislation, he had no doubt that the final reform bill would be passed with the help of reconciliation, which means Democrats need only to muster 50 votes in the Senate rather than the usual 60.

Dean told RCP earlier this year that a health care reform bill without a strong public option was pointless. "If it doesn't, all we have is the same old stuff, and I don't think it's worth spending $634 billion on what we've already got," he said.

Posted by Mike Memoli at 10:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has entered the second phase in its "Health Care ER" advertising offensive, today launching automated calls in 10 GOP districts. The DCCC is targeting "Republicans who are trying to block health insurance reform for America's families," according to a press release.

"This August, we are holding Republicans accountable," said DCCC executive director Jon Vogel.

The phone calls are heading to the following districts: Brian Bilbray (CA-50), Ken Calvert (CA-44), David Dreier (CA-26), Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-25), Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO-09), Mike McCaul (TX-10), Frank Wolf (VA-10), Bill Young (FL-10), Judy Biggert (IL-13), Mary Bono Mack (CA-45), and Pete Sessions (TX-32).

Radio ads began airing Monday in another eight districts. In all, the ad offensive will reach the districts of more than two dozen Republican members of Congress.

Here is the script of an automated call going out to Sessions's Texas district:

I have an important message about your health care. Insurance companies are posting record profits while health bills skyrocket. Now they are lining up to stop health care reforms and protect profits. Congressman Pete Sessions took almost four hundred thousand dollars from the insurance industry and now he's trying to block reform... like reducing costs by forcing insurance companies to compete and preventing them from denying you coverage. Call Congressman Sessions today. Ask him to stop standing up for insurance companies and start standing up for us.

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 01:40 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Senate Democrats left a White House meeting singing President Obama's praises while echoing the latest party talking points by portraying rowdy town hall meetings as the result of an astroturf campaign by the leading opponents of health care reform.

"In spite of the loud, shrill voices trying to interrupt town hall meetings to throw a monkey wrench into everything, we're going to continue to be positive and work hard," Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid told reporters after a luncheon with the president today.

"The American people do not like partisanship. But the American people also don't like groups of people trying to kill something that should be done," Senate Finance Committee chair Max Baucus said.

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) listed potential positive outcomes from health care reform, then added: "We'll match that against their message of negativity."

Continue reading "Democrats Target "Orchestrated" Town Hall Opposition" »

Posted by Mike Memoli at 04:02 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Here is my piece today on fundraising in districts won by incumbents with 55% or less:

As Democrats gear up for 2010, they face a daunting historical fact: since Abraham Lincoln, only two newly-elected presidents have seen their party gain seats in Congress in their first midterm election.

Aside from the weight of history, there are other ominous signs for Democrats, who now have complete control of the government and are laboring to govern through an ongoing economic recession: Obama's approval ratings are slipping, unemployment remains high, Congress is taking up a string of big-ticket items in health care reform and climate change, and the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia look favorable for the GOP.

A bright spot for Democrats, however, is the strength of their fundraising in congressional swing districts.

A RealClearPolitics analysis of fundraising by some of the most vulnerable incumbents shows Democrats in good shape. And the campaign finance reports released this month offer fresh data for the Democratic and Republican campaign committees as they refine their search for vulnerable incumbents in 2010.

Read the rest here.

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 03:15 PM | Email Author | Permalink

As Republicans are busy pounding Democrats for the health care plan that still remains in flux, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is asking: Where are your bright ideas? In a press release sent to 39 targeted districts, the DCCC notes that it's been 41 days since the GOP promised a plan.

"Instead of hiding behind some secret Republican health care plan that may or may not exist, Representative Thaddeus McCotter should help set the record straight by confirming whether or not he has seen it, what its price tag is, and how it ends the status quo of skyrocketing health care costs," DCCC spokesman Ryan Rudominer says in the release sent to McCotter's Detroit-area district.

Democrats are also hitting McCotter and more than 30 other Republicans in a separate release for voting against the economic stimulus package. The releases cites yesterday's announcement by the White House that $1 billion is being used to hire and re-hire police officers around the country.

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 03:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

The Democratic National Committee will begin airing a TV ad tomorrow promoting the need for health care reform and slamming Republicans for attempting to block progress.

"What's the cost of not reforming health care? Premiums rising faster than your paycheck," the announcer says. "But some leading Republicans, playing politics, have vowed to kill reform. Tell Republicans the cost of doing nothing on health care is just too high."

The ad comes as Democrats appear unlikely to get bills passed in either chamber of Congress before leaving town for a month. Speaker Pelosi indicated today that she's "not afraid of" waiting until after the August recess to complete a bill, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid announced that's exactly what the Senate will do.

The 30-second ad will air on national and D.C. cable stations for the next two-and-a-half weeks.

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 03:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is calling out Republicans for not walking the talk of fiscal responsibility.

House Democrats passed a budget rule called PAYGO today that requires new entitlement spending bills passed during this Congress to be deficit neutral -- meaning paid for. Under the statutory pay-as-you-go rule, theoretically a tax cut would be offset by a spending cut and a spending increase by a tax increase.

PAYGO passed 265 to 166, with all but 24 Republicans voting against it and all but 13 Democrats supporting it. A press release was distributed to media outlets in 40 GOP districts, including party leaders John Boehner (Ohio), Eric Cantor (Va.), Mike Pence (Ind.) and Pete Sessions (Texas).

"Today, when given a chance to match all her tough talk about fiscal responsibility with a vote on restoring pay-as-you-go policy, Representative Mary Bono Mack just said no," DCCC spokesman Ryan Rudominer said in a release to the California Republican's district. "Representative Bono Mack's vote against Statutory PAYGO after all her rhetoric about the need for fiscal discipline proves yet again that Bono Mack will say one thing at home and do the opposite in Washington."

Republicans, though, said the bill would do little to offset what they call out-of-control spending during this session of Congress and expressed reluctance to support a plan that could lead to tax increases. Republican Study Committee Chairman Tom Price (Ga.) called the bill "fraudulent" and a "sham" with "loopholes a trillion dollars wide."

President Obama had called for the House to pass the bill and released a statement after the vote saying it was a sign of "strong support for fiscal discipline."

"For several years, the federal government was stalled in a pattern of fiscal irresponsibility," he said. "No more."

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 10:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

President Obama spent an hour meeting with Democrats on the House Energy and Commerce Committee, talks a key conservative Democrat called productive, though no final decisions on a key concern -- cost containment.

"There's a number of potential cost-cutting measures which I think the American people expect before we consider any kind of new revenue," Rep. Mike Ross (D-Ark.), head of the Blue Dog Democrats' health care task force, told reporters after the meeting today. "They want us to squeeze every ounce of savings we can out of the current system. That's what we're demanding."

Ross said the entire meeting focused "specifically on cost containment," and said there are "a lot of ideas out there." But he and his colleagues want to see another CBO score that factors in projected savings before agreeing to any specific terms.

Energy and Commerce Committee chair Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) said that Obama "expressed to us his great, strong, firm commitment that the legislation that he signed will have to be deficit neutral and will hold down the cost in the future."

Meanwhile, the White House hinted today that it may be open to taxing a portion of health insurance benefits, on so-called "Cadillac" plans. Press secretary Robert Gibbs echoed comments the president made last night in an interview with Jim Lehrer, differentiating Obama's opposition to ending the deductibility of health insurance benefits altogether with such a limited exclusion being lifted on the most expensive plans.

"He doesn't support what Senator McCain proposed in the campaign, which, as you know, wasn't a tax on a certain level of the exclusion but instead to remove the entire tax deductibility," Gibbs said.

Posted by Mike Memoli at 05:20 PM | Email Author | Permalink

The Democratic National Committee released a web video today accusing Republicans of "playing politics" with health care reform. The video highlights a oft-cited quote by Sen. Jim DeMint, who said recently that health care reform could be President Obama's "waterloo" if the GOP "is able to stop him on this."

Obama has responded to the DeMint quote, which has also been cited today by House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen.

"While President Obama and House Democrats are offering solutions to fix America's broken health care system, Congressional Republicans are offering nothing more than the same old Washington finger-pointing and their just-say-no defense of the status quo," Van Hollen said in a press release that called out Republicans for "playing politics."

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 05:10 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Here are some talking points Senate Democrats have released on the Supreme Court nomination of Sonia Sotomayor:

SOTOMAYOR'S NOMINATION IS A HISTORIC MOMENT:

-Sotomayor is the First Hispanic American Nominated to the Supreme Court.
-Sotomayor is the First Supreme Court Nominee in 52 Years to Have Both Federal District and Appellate Court Experience.
-Sotomayor is the First Person Nominated by Three Presidents of Both Parties to All Three Levels of the Federal Judiciary.
-Sotomayor is One of Small Group of Judges Nominated to the Federal Judiciary by Presidents of Different Parties.
-Sotomayor is the First Person Since 1957 Nominated to the Supreme Court to Have Served on Federal District Court.

SOTOMAYOR'S EXPERIENCE SETS HER APART FROM PREVIOUS NOMINEES

-Sotomayor Will Bring More Federal Judicial Experience Than Any Jurist in 100 Years to the Bench.
-Sotomayor Will Bring More Overall Judicial Experience to the Court Than Any Nominee in the Past 70 Years.
-Sotomayor Will be the Only Current Supreme Court Judge With Trial Judge Experience.
-Judge Sotomayor Has Both Corporate and Public Legal Experience.

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 10:45 AM | Email Author | Permalink

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is hitting House Republicans for their vote last month against the supplemental appropriations bill, which included $2 billion in funding to fight the H1N1 virus -- also known as swine flu.

A press release went out to media in the districts of more than 50 GOP members, including party leaders Eric Cantor (Va.), Mike Pence (Ind.) and Cathy McMorris Rodgers (Wash.). In all, 170 Republicans voted against the bill on June 16, as did 32 Democrats -- none of whom were included in this blitz.

The release provided to RCP targets Rep. Lee Terry (R-Neb.). "Despite 111 confirmed and probable cases in Nebraska of H1N1 flu already, and with many scientists predicting a 'second wave' of the pandemic in the coming months, Representative Lee Terry joined fellow Party of No Republicans this year in opposing funds to help families, schools, and businesses prepare for the worst," the release states.

"The message from this spring's H1N1 flu outbreak was loud and clear: planning needs to start now. Yet, instead of heeding this wake up call, Representative Lee Terry rolled over and hit the snooze button," said DCCC national press secretary Ryan Rudominer. "The families, schools, and businesses that are now racing against the clock to prepare for this fall's flu pandemic deserve better than Representative Terry playing politics with money that could help them get better prepared today."

The backdrop for the campaign is the administration's H1N1 Preparedness Summit held yesterday at the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Md.

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 09:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

First, North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper opted out of challenging Republican Sen. Richard Burr, despite a White House sit-down with President Obama. Now, Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan has decided not to run for Senate, even after her own private White House visit.

This begs an obvious question: Has Obama lost his sway?

Obama seemed able to snag almost anyone he wanted to join his administration -- he tapped a potential 2012 rival in Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman (R) to serve as ambassador to China, and even Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.) hopped on board for a day or two before declining the nomination for Commerce Secretary.

The president appeared equally adept at getting candidates to drop bids against incumbents he wants to protect -- a quick phone call was all it took to get Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) to drop any plans for a challenge to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.).

However, along with his inability to sway Cooper and Madigan, the White House hasn't had any luck keeping Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) from challenging Gillibrand or Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.) from taking on the second-newest Democrat in the Senate, Arlen Specter (Pa.).

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 02:15 PM | Email Author | Permalink

The Democratic National Committee begins airing a TV ad today in the home state of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, calling the five-term Kentucky senator "Leader No."

This is the latest salvo in a line of criticism against the Republican leader whose party is down 20 senators. In May, the DNC released a web video questioning McConnell's leadership.

The ad's announcer states: "Call Mitch McConnell. Tell him after eight years of being part of the problem, it's time to be part of the solution."

The ad will run this week on cable stations in Lexington and Louisville.

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chalked up today's job numbers as a result of "George Bush's failed economic policies," and said the Republican Party's response to helping fix the economy continues to be, "No."

The economy lost 467,000 jobs last month and unemployment is at its highest point in a quarter-century, according to a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Much of the jobs lost during this 16 months-and-counting recession took place during the Bush administration, though Republicans have focused their attacks on the fact that the Democrat-written stimulus plan doesn't appear to have slowed it down.

"Times are tough, Americans deserve more than Republicans' no jobs and no solutions, and no progress commitment to the status quo," said DCCC spokesperson Jennifer Crider. "Republicans ought to roll their sleeves up and work with President Obama and House Democrats on turning the economy around."

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 01:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Shortly after the House squeezed in a vote on the Waxman-Markey energy and climate change bill late Friday, Members hit the road for a week-long Fourth of July break. While back in their districts, though, some will be inundated by opposition efforts from the parties' House campaign arms.

The National Republican Congressional Committee is targeting Democrats in Ohio and Virginia that voted for the energy bill. Press releases went out to the formerly Republican districts of Ohio Dems John Boccieri, Steve Driehaus, Mary Jo Kilroy and Zack Space -- all of whom are in their first or second terms.

"Whatever favors Mary Jo Kilroy might have traded for her support for Nancy Pelosi's National Energy Tax, they hardly make up for the higher energy costs and lost jobs that will plague Ohio as a result of their Kilroy's Washington horse trading," NRCC spokesman Ken Spain said in one release. "Mary Jo Kilroy owes her constituents an explanation as to why she continues to back an agenda that is nothing short of destructive to Ohio families."

Releases also went out in the Virginia districts of Tom Perriello and Rick Boucher. John McCain won both of their districts in 2008. In separate statements, Spain said Boucher "sold out Southwest Virginia's middle class" because of the coal jobs some project will be lost, and Perriello showed an "utter lack of concern" for middle class families in his majority rural district.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is launching 60-second radio ads to run during drive-time in the districts of seven Republicans who voted against the supplemental appropriations bill, which among other things funds the wars through September. The House agreed to the conference report June 16 on a 226-202 roll call vote; the Senate approved it two days later.

Those targeted are: Ken Calvert (CA), Charlie Dent (PA), Jim Gerlach (PA), Dan Lungren (CA), Mike McCaul (TX), Lee Terry (NE) and Joe Wilson (SC).

"Republicans never hesitated to criticize those who voted against the previous supplemental bills that included funding for the troops, but now that they are trying to score political points, Republicans' votes have conveniently changed," DCCC executive director Jon Vogel said in a statement released Friday. "So this Independence Day, we are going district by district to hold these hypocritical Republicans accountable."

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 01:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Talk about timing. The Washington Post this afternoon runs a story based on what it calls "first extended interview" with former Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) since he confirmed last August having an affair with Rielle Hunter. It covers a range of subjects, including his 2008 campaign for president. But he "refused to address Hunter, the baby's paternity, his wife's memoir, or the investigation."

He does talk about his future:

He says he has no plans to make a push to restore his name, along the lines of what former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer has embarked on. Reputation "is not something I'm focused on," he said. "The only relevance of it at all is my ability to help people. That's the only reason it matters. I'm not engaged in, or interested in, being in a p.r. campaign."

But he did not rule out a return to politics. He said it was too early to say what the future held -- though an Al Gore-style advocacy role was more likely than elected office, given the scandal. He thinks "every day" about what form his future role in activism or public life could take, but "right now, a lot of that is unanswerable."

You can read the rest here.

Posted by Mike Memoli at 03:10 PM | Email Author | Permalink

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is launching press releases in the districts of more than 60 House Republicans, including leaders John Boehner (OH-08), Eric Cantor (VA-07) and Pete Sessions (TX-32), highlighting the fact that they voted against the economic stimulus package.

The press releases state that despite a high unemployment rate, "things are starting to turn around thanks to President Obama's economic recovery act, but no thanks to Representative Pete Sessions's 'just say no' opposition to it."

While today's unemployment numbers appeared to be dismal, Democrats are highlighting reports indicating that the losses were not as bad as expected.

Republican leaders had used today's report as a chance to bash Democratic economic policies, however a New York Times piece today quotes T. Rowe Price chief economist Alan D. Levenson saying the numbers actually show the country "could be at flat employment" by the end of the summer.

"When will Representative Pete Sessions finally decide to be part of the solution instead of just saying no to President Obama's economic recovery policies that are starting to turn around the unemployment mess that George Bush created," Ryan Rudominer, DCCC national press secretary, says in the release. "Families are still hurting badly in these tough times. People losing their jobs in the Bush recession need action in the form of economic recovery, not Representative Sessions's determination to just say no."

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 03:15 PM | Email Author | Permalink

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is once again targeting Republicans who voted against the economic stimulus package. The committee began running radio ads this morning that will continue for a week, and it's also unleashing robo calls and e-mails to paint the GOP as the "party of no."

Of course, every single House Republican voted against the bill -- twice, even -- but the DCCC is focusing on the districts of six Members: Brian Bilbray (CA-50), Charlie Dent (PA-15), Peter King (NY-03), Thaddeus McCotter (MI-11), Tom Rooney (FL-16) and Don Young (AK-AL).

"We are once again going district by district to hold 'just say no' House Republicans accountable for voting against thousands of jobs for their constituents and against middle class tax cuts that would immediately help ease the economic crisis for families struggling to make ends meet," DCCC Executive Director Jon Vogel said in a released statement. "In these tough times, middle class families who are worried about keeping their jobs want action in the form of middle class tax cuts and economic recovery, not the House Republicans' 'just say no' obstruction."

Here is text of a radio ad: "Did you know Congressman King voted against the Economic Recovery Plan? He opposed an $800 tax cut and opposed creating or saving 215,000 New York jobs. Tell King to put New York first." [followed by disclaimer]

And here is text from the robo calls: "I'm calling from the DCCC to tell you how disappointed I am in Congressman Thad McCotter. He keeps voting "no" on everything. Congressman McCotter even voted against the economic recovery plan, which is at work now to create or save over 109,000 Michigan jobs. He voted "no" on transportation projects that mean good jobs right here - like widening Canton Center road. He even voted against an $800 tax credit for Michigan couples. I hope you'll join me in calling Congressman McCotter to tell him to stop voting "no," to stop standing in the way of getting the economy moving again."

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 10:45 AM | Email Author | Permalink

The netroots' increasing influence on the national political scene has just taken another step forward. On Monday, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee hired Arjun Jaikumar to serve as the blog and netroots outreach manager.

Jaikumar is better known in the netroots community as Brownsox, a frontpage blogger for Daily Kos.

"We are thrilled to have Arjun join our team," DSCC spokesman Eric Schultz wrote in an e-mail to RCP. "He's talented, smart, and will help strengthen our relationships with the ever-expanding netroots community."

RCP spotted Jaikumar in Arlington, Va., on Monday at a fundraiser for gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe. He said he was there unofficially and noted that he had just been hired by the DSCC.

Earlier in the day, Jaikumar wrote in his final blog post on Daily Kos that this was "a great moment for the netroots - three and a half years ago, I was an anonymous, underemployed college graduate who stumbled across Daily Kos while looking for news on Senate races. Now, I'm going to be employed by one of the party committees."

The DSCC is not alone in its strategy for netroots outreach. Hotline's Blogometer noted yesterday that Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's (D-N.Y.) campaign has also hired a netroots blogger -- MyDD's Todd Beeton.

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 10:15 AM | Email Author | Permalink

A new web video from the Democratic National Committee takes the argument made by Kentucky Sen. Jim Bunning (R) that the GOP's nearly-20 seat deficit in the Senate is a reflection of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's leadership.

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 12:55 PM | Email Author | Permalink

The DNC portrays President Obama's first 100 days as a time of keeping his promises in a new TV ad out today.

The 60-second spot splices together promises Obama made on the campaign trail last year with news reports of him signing legislation meeting those goals, with the Recovery Act first among them. It closes with Obama's address to Congress where he mentions energy, health care and education, certain to be among his top priorities in the next phase of his administration.

Posted by Mike Memoli at 11:59 AM | Email Author | Permalink

The DNC just announced its first-quarter fundraising numbers, reporting $11.9 million raised and $9.8 million cash on hand. The DNC took in another $5 million during the quarter from the Obama Victory Fund and Obama for America, and also reported more than $6.6 million in debts.

The RNC announced Friday that it had raised $25.3 million in the first quarter, including $7,351,000 transferred from the McCain-Palin campaign in January.

Here's a quick breakdown:

              Dems              GOP

Raised 3/09   $ 5,573,000       $ 6,700,000

Raised 1stQ   $11,857,000       $25,300,000

CoH           $ 9,766,000       $23,900,000

Posted by Mike Memoli at 03:22 PM | Email Author | Permalink

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will begin running radio ads next week in the districts of six Republicans, all of whom voted against the economic recovery package. One of the six targeted districts, though, sticks out from the rest.

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), whose 10th District runs from the Houston suburbs west to include parts of Austin, is the only one of the six targeted members to represent a district won by John McCain in 2008. Both McCaul and McCain won the district by 11 points in November, which begs the question: Is the DCCC really targeting this seat?

Apparently they are, and in no small part because of an already well-funded candidate named Jack McDonald, whose exploratory committee announced yesterday that it had raised more than $300,000 in just five weeks. Should McDonald, a self-described "centrist Democrat" and "successful businessman," officially jump in the race, he'll face a Republican whose winning percentage has dropped significantly as his opponents have spent more money, but who held off a well-funded opponent last year.

McCaul was elected comfortably to Congress with 79 percent in 2004, when no Democrat ran in the general election and two third-party candidates spent no more than $50,000 combined. McCaul's Dem opponent in 2006 spent a paltry $64,000, yet still garnered 40 percent of the vote. And McCaul's percentage dropped to 55 percent.

In 2008, a DailyKos/Research2000 poll released late in the campaign found Democrat Larry Joe Doherty trailing McCaul by just 4 points. Doherty spent $1.2 million, about a half-million less than McCaul, and the Republican's winning percentage dropped to 54 percent, below the threshold of what should be considered a solid victory.

The other five Republican congressmen the DCCC is targeting in radio ads next week include: Mike Castle (Delaware), Ken Calvert (CA-44), Charlie Dent (PA-15), Thaddeus McCotter (MI-11) and Bill Young (FL-10).

"Heading into Tax Day, we are again going district by district to hold 'just say no' House Republicans accountable for voting against middle class tax cuts that would immediately help ease the economic crisis for families struggling to make ends meet," said DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen.

The committee is calling this the fourth phase of its "Putting Families First" campaign, with the ads set to begin airing Monday morning and run for a week. The ad can be heard here:

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 02:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Jon Vogel, who recently signed on as a partner at Global Strategy Group, has gone back to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, replacing Brian Wolff as executive director.

During the 2008 election cycle, Vogel led the independent expenditure program, which the DCCC credits with picking up 24 seats. Vogel also served as political director, and in 2006 as the Northeastern and Florida regional political director.

"I'm excited that Jon Vogel will be our new Executive Director," DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen said today in a released statement. "Jon brings a deep level of understanding about House campaigns that can only be gained from two extremely successful cycles."

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 05:15 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Putting his stamp on the Democratic Party, President-elect Barack Obama handed his party chairmanship to Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine, a friend and ally who was the first governor outside Illinois to endorse him.

The two appeared together at a brief press conference at the DNC headquarters near Capitol Hill. Absent was the outgoing party chair, Howard Dean, who both men praised for laying the groundwork for the party's successes.

"Howard deserves enormous credit for helping usher in a new era in Washington," Obama said. "Now's the time not only to build on Howard's record of achievement, but to remake the Democratic Party to meet the challenges of the 21st century."

Even in choosing Kaine to be the partisan-in-chief, the president-elect highlighted his bipartisan record. Obama said that as the governor of a state "that reflects America," Kaine had been successful "not by appealing to our divisions, but by appealing to our common hopes. "

"Tim knows that breaking free of the old orthodoxies and reaching across party lines isn't just a way build a Democratic Party that's more open and inclusive. It's a way to achieve progress for all Americans," he said. "He understands that while politics is tough, and we need to fight hard for our ideals and our values, we also need to work together to solve our common problems."

Kaine thanked Obama for the selection, calling him a "very persuasive individual." As chairman, he said he would focus on three goals: promoting Obama's agenda, carrying "the proud banner of a proud party," and working to "engage citizens to be active in civic life."

"We have made the party in Virginia working every day a party of problem solvers," he said. "We're not the ideologues, the obstructionists, the gridlock folks. ... And we're not the dividers. We've rejected the politics of negativity, the politics that often energizes the 51 percent by beating up on the 49 percent."

Kaine, who is prohibited by Virginia law from serving a second consecutive term, has one year remaining in office. He'll serve as a part-time chairman until he leaves office. Since becoming governor in 2005, Virginia Democrats have won two U.S. Senate elections, a majority of the U.S. House seats and taken control of the state Senate.

The smooth transition in the Democratic Party stands in contrast to a tough fight for the top political post in the GOP. Republicans will choose from a crowded field during their winter meeting at the end of January.

Posted by Mike Memoli at 05:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Speaker Nancy Pelosi released a statement late Wednesday, on Thanksgiving eve, that she expects a House Ethics committee report on the questioned dealings of Ways and Means Committee chairman Charles Rangel to be completed by Jan. 3.

Pelosi's statement followed two days of renewed questions regarding Rangel, after a New York Times article reported he "was instrumental in preserving a lucrative tax loophole that benefited an oil-drilling company last year, while at the same time its chief executive was pledging $1 million" to help fund a new City College of New York school of public service that will be named in Rangel's honor.

This latest New York Times story was followed by an editorial the next day in the same paper, which called on Pelosi to ensure the ethics investigation was moving forward. "We hope that Speaker Nancy Pelosi is shocked into action. She should insist that the ethics investigation move forward -- and that Mr. Rangel relinquish his chairmanship during the inquiry. If Mr. Rangel continues to resist, the speaker should permanently reassign the gavel. In a deep economic crisis, the committee, and the country, cannot afford the distraction," the Times editorialized.

The Washington Post jumped into the fray as well, writing Saturday that Rangel "should step aside as chairman while the ethics committee expands its inquiry."

National Journal's Richard E. Cohen, one of the most knowledgeable and well-sourced House reporters, wrote in Congress Daily on Friday that Rangel "faces a potential double-barreled challenge when the new Congress convenes in January: House members could seek to force a vote on whether he should get another two years in his powerful post; at the same time the House Ethics Committee is scheduled to issue a report on its investigation of several news reports about his possible ethical violations."

What's ahead for Rangel remains unknown, but one thing is for sure: Pelosi will not be able to side-step this investigation, as all eyes are on the chairman of this powerful tax-writing committee.

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 12:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Four years after taking over the helm of the Democratic National Committee, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean is calling it quits, multiple news organizations are reporting.

Elevated to the top DNC slot after his failed but ground-breaking presidential campaign, Dean enraged some Washington insiders but thrilled state party activists by investing resources in even heavily-Republican territory through his 50-state strategy. That strategy, some now say, helped propel Democrats to unlikely victories over the last two cycles.

Dean can also claim credit -- or take the blame, depending on one's perspective -- for elevating the liberal netroots to new prominence in the party. During his watch at 430 South Capitol Street, Dean involved groups like the DailyKos community to an extent previously unmatched in politics.

Meanwhile, Dean maintained a contentious and at times bruised relationship with top Congressional Democrats like Rep. Rahm Emanuel and Senator Charles Schumer, who headed their party's campaign efforts in the House and Senate in 2006. At one well-publicized meeting, Emanuel, whose DCCC offices were in the same building as Dean's, huffed out of Dean's office after a loud disagreement over party spending.

Dean's tenure saw a downturn in fundraising but a dramatic uptick in electoral results after disappointing cycles in 2000, 2002 and 2004. While the national atmosphere, President Bush's low approval ratings and strong performances from both the DCCC and the DSCC deserve most of the credit for Democratic successes of late, the national party did help build state and local organizations in areas that were previously the sole domain of Republicans.

With the Vermont governor no longer in the picture, early speculation about a long list of potential replacements will begin. President-elect Barack Obama will have a hand in the selection, which has historically been used either to reward big-name backers or install fundraising and political powerhouses.

Bill Clinton did both, installing 1992 campaign manager David Wilhelm and political operatives like Steve Grossman, Joe Andrew and Terry McAuliffe for some periods and well-known public officials like former Colorado Governor Roy Romer and Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell.

If Obama chooses the big-name route, he might tap a governor who faces term limits, like Tim Kaine or Bill Richardson. On the other hand, Obama could throw his support behind campaign manager David Plouffe, who many have floated as bound for bigger and better things after steering Obama's campaign to an historic win.

Democrats will meet early next year to elect a new chair.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 03:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

California Rep. Henry Waxman built a reputation in the 110th Congress as a fierce watchdog, exercising his authority as chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. In the 111th Congress, Waxman wants to be known as chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee.

Waxman today began campaigning for the prominent post, mounting a bid against incumbent chairman John Dingell of Michigan. Waxman, the second-ranking member of the committee, has a small cadre of early backers making phone calls to whip on his behalf. Tennessee Rep. Jim Cooper is one member who has called several members on behalf of the Californian.

But Dingell will be hard to unseat. The Michigan congressman, just elected to his 27th full term in Congress and the dean of the Democratic caucus, has served as chair or ranking member of the committee since 1981, becoming one of the most powerful members of Congress while irritating some environmentally-friendly Democrats with his fierce defense of the automobile industry.

A top Democratic leadership aide told Politics Nation that Waxman's decision to challenge his senior colleague caught party leaders by surprise. The leadership aide also said Waxman's challenge appears to be serious.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:45 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Claiming credit for bucking historical trends after his party netted 22 seats last night, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Chris Van Hollen nonetheless told reporters today he is through after one term as the House party's chief political strategist.

Asked about his future at a post-election press conference, Van Hollen said he wouldn't seek a new term as chairman. "I'm exploring all my options. An option I'm not exploring is continuing as chairman of the DCCC," Van Hollen said. "It's been a great two years, it's been a wonderful experience working with my colleagues."

With rumors swirling that Democratic Conference chairman Rahm Emanuel may head to the White HOuse as chief of staff, Van Hollen may be looking for a promotion in Democratic leadership. Van Hollen said he had not talked to Emanuel about the Illinois congressman's plans, and he was circumspect about his own future. "I look forward to continuing to be a part of the discussion," was all Van Hollen would say.

With Van Hollen vacating the top post at the DCCC, speculation will center on Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who with Van Hollen co-chaired the party's "Red to Blue" program in 2006. This year, Wasserman Schultz co-chaired the program, which targeted vulnerable Republican-held seats, with Rep. Artur Davis of Alabama and Iowa Rep. Bruce Braley. Both Davis and Braley have also been mentioned as potential future chairs of the DCCC.

A spokesman for Wasserman Schultz said she is traveling today.

Unlike Republicans, who have to run to head their party's campaign arm, Democrats give sole power to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to decide who will head the DCCC. A spokesperson for Pelosi could not be immediately reached.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 03:05 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Quote of the day, from this weekend's Politics Nation on XM Radio:

"If you're Senator Obama and you're making the case, as some of the people are, that this is the next revolutionary election since 1980, you'd be rooting for the Phillies, because the first and last time that they won the World Series was in 1980. So if you want to complete the circle of history, then the Democrats should be rooting for the Philadelphia Phillies."

-- Craig Shirley, GOP consultant.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 06:50 PM | Email Author | Permalink

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is following up its first major ad buy two weeks ago by reserving another $18 million in television time for their candidates across the country. The new purchase, which brings Democrats' total reservations to $53 million, will target a total of twenty new districts, increasing the playing field to fifty-one seats on both sides of the aisle.

The new purchase, much like the first round, heavily favors spending in Republican-held districts. Seven of the targeted seats are being vacated by Republican members of Congress this year, while another eight are held by GOP members seeking re-election. The five remaining seats are held by Democrats, including Alabama Rep. Bud Cramer's open seat.

Republicans, who trail in cash on hand by a six-to-one margin, took some comfort after the first round of advertising reservations by crowing about some seats left off the list of early targets. Many of those seats are included in the second round, pointing to districts like those in which Democrats have had recent success.

Among those archetypes are seats held by Reps. Dave Reichert, of Washington, and Mark Kirk, of Illinois. Both are suburban districts in which Democratic candidates at other levels, including the presidential, have won. Democrats have reserved $949,000 to target Reichert, whose district encompasses much of suburban Seattle, and $1.4 million to take on Kirk in the pricier Chicago suburbs.

Democrats have also found success in the economically-depressed stretch between the Northeast and the Rust Belt. The party has laid down a combined $2.7 million to target three Republican-held seats in upstate New York, two held by retiring Reps. Tom Reynolds and Jim Walsh and one by incumbent Rep. Randy Kuhl.

But the party has to play defense as well, and the DCCC is starting with two of its three most junior members. Democrats reserved $723,000 to defend Louisiana freshman Don Cazayoux in the first round, and it has now put aside a combined $2.08 million to defend its other two special election winners, Reps. Bill Foster, of Illinois, and Travis Childers, of Mississippi.

Democrats will also spend money defending two freshmen members, Arizona Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, who faces a tough challenge in State Senate President Tim Bee, and California's Jerry McNerney, who is running against highly-touted Republican recruit Dean Andal.

A full list of districts targeted and the amount the DCCC has reserved can be found after the jump.

Continue reading "DCCC Drops More Cash" »

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced a new contest among every Democratic House campaign to see who can bring out the most volunteers on July 26 -- exactly 100 days until the election -- to canvass and man phone banks. The winner, per the DCCC, will benefit from a fundraising e-mail sent on their behalf to the 3 million people in the committee's address book.

Calling it "Mobilize for Change: A National Day of Action," DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen said the contest is a "way for campaigns to boost their volunteer base."

"The DCCC is committed to reaching voters across the country with our message of change and has begun contacting voters earlier than ever before," Van Hollen was quoted saying in the press release. "By starting earlier, Democrats are reaching voters that are not yet being fully bombarded by political messages, which we know from our three special election wins is critical to our success."

In what it calls an "unprecedented" voter contact program that aims to reach as many voters as possible through door knocks and phone calls, the campaign committee says its on pace to reach 13 million voters in more than 50 districts. To put that in some perspective, 13 million voters is just more than one-tenth of all the people who voted for president in 2004.

Messages left with the DCCC and Obama campaign, inquiring whether there would be any coordination on this project between the two, were not returned by the time of publication.

Both the DCCC and its GOP counterpart, the National Republican Congressional Committee raised their cash-on-hand totals last month, though the DCCC still holds a more than six-to-one advantage. After raising $10 million from June 1 to June 30, the DCCC reports having $54.6 million in the bank. The NRCC had a good month raising $6 million, though still has just $8.5 million on hand.

--Kyle Trygstad

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 01:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is taking advantage of its huge financial advantage already, making major media buys in 31 Congressional districts around the country, according to an internal document obtained by Politics Nation. The DCCC has reserved $34.5 million worth of television time, including $22.5 million in districts currently held by Republicans.

Democrats enjoy a huge financial advantage over Republicans. Through the end of May, the DCCC held $47.1 million in cash reserves, while the National Republican Congressional Committee had just $6.65 million in the bank. That disparity will play a huge role in November, and Democrats are already laying the foundation with the first round of major ad buys.

Of the nineteen Republican districts Democrats have reserved time in, the party has a good chance to pick up as many as a dozen. Nine Republican incumbents, including Alaska Rep. Don Young, Michigan Reps. Joe Knollenberg and Tim Walberg, Nevada Rep. Jon Porter and Ohio Rep. Steve Chabot, are early targets of DCCC media buys.

The party is targeting ten Republican-held open seats as well. In Arizona's First District, Rep. Rick Renzi's retirement has made Democratic former State Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick the early front-runner. In New York's Thirteenth District, Rep. Vito Fossella's retirement after being charged with a DUI has left Republicans virtually without an opponent.

But after picking up thirty seats in 2006 and another three in special elections this year, Democrats realize they have to play defense as well. The party will defend Reps. Jason Altmire, a Pennsylvanian who faces a rematch with his 2006 opponent Melissa Hart, Texan Nick Lampson, who will face former Congressional aide Pete Olson, and Harry Mitchell, a freshman from Arizona who will face the winner of a competitive primary.

Too, the party has already reserved time to defend retiring Rep. Darlene Hooley's suburban and exurban Portland seat in Oregon. State Senator Kurt Shrader, the Democratic nominee, is seen as the front-runner after Republican Mike Erickson faced embarrassing personal revelations following his state's May primary.

In total, the DCCC has reserved $12 million to protect their own incumbents and Hooley's open seat. The nine Republican incumbents will be targeted with up to $9 million in total spending, while the DCCC has reserved another $13.5 million for Republican-held open seats.

Still, these numbers can change over the coming months. Reserving time is not the same thing as buying time, and, should Democrats decide one race is easily won or already lost, the party can shift resources to other districts. Having reserved time only ensures the DCCC can spend money before commercial advertisers and other political candidates buy the time remaining, driving prices up.

Too, with Barack Obama, John McCain and both parties expected to spend millions in a wider number of states than normal, both including traditionally Democratic and Republican states, cheaper political advertising rates will run out quickly, while traditional advertising rates will balloon.

Full list of targeted districts and amount of ad buys after the jump.

Continue reading "Dems Make Major Buy" »

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:15 PM | Email Author | Permalink

National Democrats will be guided by Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano, a long-time Barack Obama supporter, when they craft their platform at the convention in Denver, the Democratic National Committee announced today. The Copper State chief will head up the party's Platform Drafting Committee in advance of the full committee hammering out a draft to be voted on by the convention.

Napolitano will be joined by prominent Democrats from around the country, including Reps. Tammy Baldwin, Rosa DeLauro, Patrick Murphy and Linda Sanchez, as well as Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm, Maryland Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown and Obama advisers Susan Rice and Heather Higginbottom. The committee includes prominent Clinton backers, like Baldwin and Granholm, as well as Obama backers.

The drafting committee is scheduled to meet August 1 in Cleveland, Ohio, to hear from the public, but that's not the only chance voters will have to give input. The party will also hold platform meetings in local communities which will produce summaries to be reviewed by the full, elected committee, the DNC announced today.

"From the beginning, we said we were going bring down the traditional walls of the Democratic Convention and make this event more accessible and include as many people as possible," DNC chief Howard Dean said in a statement. "This process will empower Americans in all 50 states to make their voices heard as they help write the document that embodies our Party's values and vision for the future."

That Obama's campaign would open the process, at least nominally, to non-party elites is nothing new. Previous nominees have sent their platform committees on junkets around the country to take testimony in a number of different cities. Still, the breadth of Obama's reach is once again in play, as the Illinois Senator makes it known that a certain, likely very high, number of people are interested in crafting the ideological foundation of his campaign.

After the platform is drafted in Cleveland, the full committee will meet in Pittsburgh the following week to hammer out the final version to be voted on by delegates to the convention. Deval Patrick, governor of Massachusetts, and former New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid will co-chair the full committee, along with former Discovery Communications president and CEO Judith McHale.

In charge of the entire process will be Karen Kornbluh, who serves as Obama's policy director in his Senate office. Kornbluh, the Principle Author of the Platform, will be joined by National Platform Director Michael Yaki, a one-time top aide to Nancy Pelosi and a commissioner on the U.S. Comission on Civil Rights.

It is unusual for either party to face serious fights over what normally turns out to be a ratification of the nominee's wishes, though conservatives have hinted that they might cause a ruckus at the Republican Convention in St. Paul, especially over issues like climate change and immigration.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Flush with a cash advantage that looks increasingly ominous for Republicans, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is targeting thirteen Republicans with a new radio ad blitz through the Fourth of July, including in some seats the party has only a slim chance of picking up.

The ad includes a comedian who impersonates President Bush, and accuses targeted Republicans of backing oil companies at a time of record gas prices. "President Bush's Big Oil energy policies delivered high gas prices to the American people, so who better to deliver our message than someone who sounds just like him?" DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen said in a statement announcing the campaign.

Some targeted Republicans will face serious challenges come November. Democratic challengers to Reps. Thelma Drake, of Virginia, Shelly Moore Capito, of West Virginia, Steve Chabot, of Ohio and Robin Hayes, of North Carolina, have been named to the Red to Blue program for candidates the party thinks have top chances of knocking off their GOP rivals.

Other Republicans could be added to that list. Democrats running against Reps. Brian Bilbray, of California, Charlie Dent and Phil English, of Pennsylvania, Scott Garrett, of New Jersey, Virgil Goode, of Virginia, Patrick McHenry, of North Carolina, Peter Roskam, of Illinois and Jean Schmidt, of Ohio, are seen as "emerging" challengers who may, in the future, be added to the Red to Blue program.

While some races seem out of reach, others are getting an inordinate amount of attention from Democratic Party leaders. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, for example, held a campaign event for Dennis Shulman, running against Garrett in the Fifth District of New Jersey, which touches New York State. Shulman remains a long shot, though Garrett won re-election with just 55% of the vote in 2006.

Hoyer's visit, and attention the DCCC is paying to candidates running against Bilbray, McHenry and others, are attempts, with four months to go before the general election, to dramatically expand the playing field. Those efforts will not be successful in all cases, but if the party can put a few additional seats in play, it will dramatically stretch the few dollars Republicans have in their warchest, forcing tough decisions that could limit the party's ability to play offense.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

House Democrats started flexing their financial muscle last night, reserving their first major advertising slots ahead of November elections and offering a peek into the party's priorities. In all, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reserved $4 million in three competitive districts between September and the November 4 election, beginning the process of swamping Republicans with their financial advantage.

Buoyed by surprising and scandalous revelations that forced Rep. Vito Fossella to announce his retirement from his Staten Island-based Thirteenth District in New York, Democrats plunked down $2.1 million in the pricey New York City market. The party has largely coalesced around New York City Councilmember Mike McMahon, while Republicans are struggling to find a candidate of their own.

After one candidate the GOP settled on passed away last weekend, a new round of recruitment efforts has been rebuffed by everyone on the list, including Fossella himself. At least eight potential candidates have said no to Republican efforts to get them on the ballot. McMahon looks very likely to take back the last Republican-held seat that touches any part of New York City.

Democrats have also reserved about $700,000 on Colorado's eastern slope and high plains, money targeted at ousting incumbent Republican Marilyn Musgrave. Musgrave's Fourth District, which looks like an inverted "L" hanging north and curving down the state's eastern edge, has been contested before, and while Democrats came close in 2006, they are confident in former congressional aide Betsy Markey's chances.

The ad buy comes largely in the Denver media market, which feeds into the bulk of the district's homes, with a smaller amount coming in the Colorado Springs-Pueblo market. Musgrave has a significant cash advantage, with more than $1 million in the bank through November compared with $376,000 for Markey. But the DCCC's commitment can take away Musgrave's advantage in a heartbeat.

Democrats aren't completely playing offense, though. The party has also reserved $1.2 million in advertising time in the Portland, Oregon market in order to defend retiring Rep. Darlene Hooley's seat. Hooley's district is the most competitive in the state, running from south of Portland and the Cascade Mountains to the Pacific Ocean and including Salem, the state capital. President Bush won the district by a single point in both 2000 and 2004.

State Senator Kurt Schrader is in good position to keep the seat, as his Republican opponent, 2006 nominee Mike Erickson, has been battered by accusations that he paid for an abortion even though he says he is pro-life, accusations that first cropped up in the primary but have only gotten louder. Erickson came surprisingly close to beating Hooley in 2006, and he's got a lot of his own money to spend, but whether he will survive the scandal remains an open question.

Putting money into three seats so early gives the DCCC the opportunity to buy ads at cheaper political rates come the Fall. It does not, however, mean that Democrats have to spend their money in any of the seats. Democrats may find the New York and Oregon seats in their pockets by the time September or October roll around, and if the party decides the money is better spent elsewhere, they will do so.

With such a big cash advantage, look for national Democrats to plunk down money early and often. Republicans, who have yet to cross into the tens of millions of dollars on hand category, could find themselves hurt by increasing ad prices, especially as John McCain and Barack Obama start to make their own ad buys. But at least Republicans will know where Democrats are placing their bets.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Far from the bright lights of the television cameras, under which the committee last met in early June, the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee concluded its official business this afternoon via conference call, finalizing the long, hard slog toward the Democratic convention in Denver.

The committee unanimously adopted the official report to the convention credentials committee in one of the fastest Rules and Bylaws meetings in recent memory -- committee member Donna Brazile joined the call as the meeting ended, wondering aloud,"Is the call over?" Twenty three states have already submitted complete and acceptable delegate slates, while nine states have yet to submit slates in compliance with Democratic rules on gender balance among delegates, alternates and standing committee members. The remaining states and territories have not completed their delegate selection process.

States that have yet to achieve gender equality among their delegations include Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, Rhode Island and Virginia. Ensuring equality across gender lines is the one authority reserved for the Rules and Bylaws Committee, and DNC Executive Director Phil McNamara said there had not been a waiver granted since the rule was adopted in 1984.

The panel referred just two delegate challenge to the convention credentials committee, which will take over most of the RBC's roles once it is convened in Denver. The legitimacy of an Obama delegate from Texas and a Clinton delegate from Wisconsin will be the only controversial matter decided by the credentials committee.

The Wisconsin matter, which involves First District Clinton backer Debra Bartoshevich, will be the most newsworthy, as Wisconsin party officials seek to disqualify the emergency room nurse. Bartoshevich, who is from Waterford, told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that she would support Republican presidential nominee John McCain in the Fall, instead of Barack Obama. A Wisoconsin Democratic Party spokeswoman said the party was challenging Bartoshevich's status as a delegate to Denver.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 05:45 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Reports filed with the Federal Election Commission late Friday show Republicans picking up serious ground on the financial front, but only thanks to Mike Duncan's efforts at the Republican National Committee. As GOP campaign committees in both the House and the Senate continue to lag far behind their Democratic counterparts, RNC fundraising, thanks perhaps to a nomination battle that wrapped up far earlier than the Democrats' did, continues to outpace the Democratic National Committee by leaps and bounds.

The RNC raised $24.3 million in May, FEC reports show, while spending $11.5 million. The DNC raised just $4.8 million and spent $5.2 million. After John McCain clinched the GOP nomination, the party began raising funds through the Victory program, a joint fundraising effort with their presidential nominee. Republicans ended the month with a whopping $53.5 million in the bank, compared with just $3.9 million on hand for the DNC.

Barack Obama's clinching the nomination in early June should boost Democrats' fundraising numbers this month, though the South Capitol Street gang has a long way to go to catch up to their rivals at the Capitol Hill Club.

House Democrats continued to put distance between themselves and the National Republican Congressional Committee in May, raising $6.1 million and spending $4.2 million to end the month with $47.1 million in the bank. Republicans raised $5 million and spent $5.1 million, to finish with $6.65 million on hand. Much of both parties' spending went to early May special elections in Louisiana and Mississippi, both Republican seats which Democrats won.

Perhaps most telling, Democratic members of Congress are investing in their own conference. Last month, members gave $1.9 million to their own cause, building the party's cash-on-hand edge to a more than seven-to-one ratio. Republican members of an NRCC oversight committee, meanwhile, have complained about a lack of contributions from their own members, many of whom have apparently decided to stockpile their own cash in the event they, too, have more competitive races than expected.

On the Senate side, Democrats outraised Republicans as well, though Republicans earned enough to close their own yawning disparity. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee raised $5.9 million and spent $4.9 million, to end the month with $38.5 million on hand. Much of the money went to building field organizations in key battleground states, a process which began last month. The National Republican Senatorial Committee raised $4.9 million and spent $2.7 million, bringing their total in the bank to $21.5 million.

Both Senate committees have something to brag about this month. Republicans point out that they are in better position than they were in 2006, with nearly $3 million more in the bank and having raised more than they did two years ago last month. Democrats, though, have also raised more, and their cash on hand advantage is up slightly from two years ago.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

President Bush may have an approval rating that dips perilously below 30%, but at least Washington Republicans can still find some use for him. The National Republican Senatorial Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee are holding a major fundraiser this evening that is expected to bring in $19 million to the two beleaguered campaign arms.

Chaired by Texas Rep. Jeb Hensarling and Utah Senator Orrin Hatch, the dinner is expected to exceed its fundraising goals of $7 million for the NRCC and $12 million for the Senate, sources on both sides of the Hill said. Still, that doesn't mean all the money will come in tonight; a similar event featuring President Bush in March was said to have raised $8.6 million, though that money was spread between multiple FEC reports. Records show the party raised $7.1 million through March.

Democrats, who have outpaced their Republican rivals in fundraising success in both chambers, are also planning a new fundraising push for individual downballot candidates, Politico reports this morning, though the effort is not being run through either committee. Instead, a group of Hollywood women are planning a major fundraiser for September 27 that would directly benefit half a dozen key Senate candidates to the tune of at least $100,000 each.

Leaders of the group of organizers have signed agreements with Reps. Tom Allen, Tom Udall and Mark Udall, running for Senate seats in Maine, New Mexico and Colorado, respectively; Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, challenging Alaska Senator Ted Stevens; ex-Governor Jeanne Shaheen, running again in New Hampshire; and comedian Al Franken, in Minnesota.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is building its Red to Blue program, Roll Call's David Drucker reports this morning, adding fourteen more candidates from Republican-held districts the party thinks it has a legitimate shot at winning. That brings to 37 the total number of districts the party is putting among its top-tier targets.

Districts targeted range from those seen as highly likely to take back Republican-held seats, like Fairfax County Board of Supervisors chairman Gerry Connolly in Virginia's Eleventh District, to those seen as longer shots, like businessman Glenn Nye in Virginia's Second District and Queen Anne County State's Attorney Frank Kratovil in Maryland's First District.

While some of the seats seem within Democrats' reach, others seem to be rather ambitious. National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Ken Spain told Drucker the DCCC was just "trotting out their B-list candidates" to get some free press. Still, as Democrats have a massive cash on hand advantage, they will be able to make Republicans worry about districts they might otherwise not be concerned with.

Too, as Democrats press their advantage even in seats in which they start off as severe underdogs, Republicans will not be able to play offense as much as they might like. By adding to the Red to Blue program, Democrats can simultaneously help those incumbents endangered enough to be on the Frontline program for vulnerable incumbents.

Twenty additional candidates could be on pace to qualify for the program, which aids candidates with fundraising, communications and other assistance from Washington. Some, like former Nevada Democratic Party chair Jill Derby, have prior political experience (Derby lost to Republican freshman Dean Heller by five points in 2006), while others, including businessman Michael Skelly, challenging Rep. John Culberson in Texas' Seventh District, have seemingly come from nowhere.

Full list of challengers added to the Red to Blue program after the jump.

Continue reading "Red To Blue Expands" »

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Utilizing the available star power, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee sent out a fundraising plea signed by presidential nominee Barack Obama yesterday seeking contributions he promised would "remake the electoral map and create a governing majority that will transform this country."

Obama, who has already raised somewhere north of $300 million and will likely have his best fundraising month to date this month after securing the nomination, is helping another financial heavyweight. The DCCC finished April with $45.2 million in the bank, much higher than their Republican counterparts, who ended with just $6.7 million on hand. Both parties spent heavily in early May on special elections in Louisiana and Mississippi, both of which Democrats won.

Obama's solicitation on behalf of the committee comes a week after his campaign effectively took over operations at the Democratic National Committee, which resides in the same building south of the Capitol. Obama banned contributions from lobbyists and PACs to his own campaign, and the DNC followed suit, but the DCCC and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee have so far refused to do so.

Some Democratic candidates have been critical of the move, saying it puts them in the awkward position of having to explain why they accept donations from special interest groups, even in an era when campaigns cost more than ever.

National Republicans are only too happy to oblige. "It is the height of hypocrisy for Barack Obama to solicit campaign contributions on behalf of the very same campaign committee that opposes his position of refusing lobbyist donations," NRCC spokesman Ken Spain said in a statement released this morning. "It appears that Democrats want to have it both ways; they want to run on a platform of so-called 'change' while simultaneously shaking down Washington lobbyists before they bash them on the campaign trail."

Fundraising reports for May's activity are due June 20, while money raised from Obama's solicitation won't show up in FEC reports until July 20.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

WASHINGTON -- One would not even need to enter the Democratic National Committee headquarters on Capitol Hill yesterday, where a press conference was being held, to know where the focus of the party's efforts is. A banner hanging over the front door reads: "John McCain = 3rd Bush Term."

Party leaders stood before a packed room of reporters and cameras yesterday proclaiming a unified party, as DNC chairman Howard Dean, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Democratic Governors' Association chairman Joe Manchin spoke about efforts to extend its majorities in the House, Senate and among the key governorships around the country, and on the importance of winning back the White House.

Reid said party leaders "have the closest association in the history of the Democratic Party," saying that the communication and cooperation between the House, Senate, DGA and DNC was unprecedented. Pelosi said that all the branches of party leadership "look forward now to joining forces to elect a Democratic President of the United States to take our country in a new direction."

Two Clinton supporters, Senators Debbie Stabenow of Michigan and Patty Murray of Washington, also stepped up to the microphone to express their support for the presumptive Democratic nominee, Barack Obama -- a clear nod to Clinton primary voters, especially women, to do the same. Murray likened the situation to the rivalry between her Washington State University Cougars and the University of Washington Huskies. Though she rooted for her team, if the Huskies made the Rose Bowl, she would always root them on.

Another Clinton supporter, fellow New York Senator Charles Schumer, let out a high-pitched "Woooo!" after Reid said Obama would be the country's next president. Dean expressed his confidence that Obama will defeat McCain in November. "This is not just about Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, this is about our country," Dean said. "I have every belief that we will come together."

In another sign of the party's efforts to bring its supporters together, Pelosi noted two groups of Democratic voters that usually favored Clinton over Obama over the course of the primary season. "Women and blue collar workers, whatever their race, have the most to gain by the election of Barack Obama," Pelosi said.

The Republican National Committee has almost doubled the DNC's fundraising so far this election cycle, but Dean said the party will be closing that gap soon, noting that he had just finished writing 30 "thank you" letters to donors who had just given the maximum $28,500 donation. "Now that we have a nominee, we won't have any problem raising money," Dean said. "We are going to essentially be run by the Obama campaign."

He has a few more thank-yous to write to catch up, though; media reports indicate that the DNC will claim just over $4 million in the bank when they file with the FEC this month, while Republicans have more than $50 million on hand.

-- Kyle Trygstad

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 12:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

After a three-hour lunch meeting in which Rules and Bylaws Committee members privately argued over solutions by which delegates from Michigan and Florida will be seated at the Democratic National Convention in Denver this summer, committee members surprised observers by returning two quick verdicts.

The committee agreed unanimously with a proposal offered early this morning from Florida DNC member Jon Ausman, under which the Sunshine State will send a full compliment of 185 delegates to Denver, all of whom will have one half of one vote. An initial motion to seat every Florida delegate with a full vote failed, though by a surprisingly narrow 12-15 margin.

Michigan, which initially moved its primary to January 15 in violation of DNC rules, caused significantly more consternation during deliberations today. But after extended negotiations, a motion from Virginia committee member Mame Reiley, a Clinton backer, allocated 69 delegates to Hillary Clinton and 59 delegates to Barack Obama, each delegate with half a vote, passed by a 19-8 margin.

Dissenting members, largely backing Clinton, criticized the motion for what they said was a violation of a party rule known as fair reflection, arguing that by removing four delegates from the 73 Clinton would have gained out of Michigan, the process was unfair.

Overall, Clinton earned nineteen net delegates from Florida and five from Michigan, before super delegates from both states will be included. With the additional delegates allowed seats in Denver, the magic number Clinton and Obama strive for will be 2,118, up from the 2,026 delegates needed before today.

Not everyone left the hall happy, though. As co-chairs James Roosevelt and Alexis Herman attempted to gavel the meetings to a close, protests erupted in the back of the hall. "I'm not voting for Barack Obama!" shouted one woman, while others chanted, "Madam President!"

But ten hours after the committee convened, the specter of a nomination by just 48 states has been excised. The Rules and Bylaws Committee will next meet to offer their final report to the convention credentials committee in late June, a meeting Roosevelt promised to arrange by telephone.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 07:25 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Nearly three hours after the Rules and Bylaws Committee broke for lunch, the meeting has not resumed, as committee members work to resolve delegate messes in Florida and Michigan. Multiple sources tell Politics Nation that a Florida compromise is largely finished, while one source tells Politics Nation that committee members remain in closed session working on a Michigan deal. Other media outlets are reporting the discussions continue.

At issue: Whether to accept the Clinton campaign's scenario, under which the New York Senator would get 73 delegates to Barack Obama's 55 (a proposal that is virtually dead on arrival), the Obama camp's plan, which would split the delegates along an even 64-64 line, or a compromise plan that would hand Clinton 69 delegates to Obama's 59.

If the committee can hash out their differences behind closed doors, they could finish their public deliberations relatively quickly. With a Florida compromise ready to go, the Wolverine State remains the only sticking point, and one on which, so far, neither campaign has been willing to budge.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 05:35 PM | Email Author | Permalink

As the Rules and Bylaws Committee prepares to break for lunch in advance of debate over solutions to the Michigan and Florida conundrums, Hillary Clinton backer Harold Ickes has signaled that his argument on Michigan will center on the concept of "fair reflection." By invoking Rule 13 of the Democratic Party's delegate selection rules, Ickes hopes to win delegates beyond the 69 of 128 a group of prominent Michiganders have proposed.

"Delegates shall be allocated in a fashion that fairly reflects the expressed presidential preference, or uncommitted status of the primary voters or, if there is no binding primary, the convention and/or caucus participants," Rule 13(a) says. Clinton's campaign is defending the 56% of the vote she won on January 15, arguing that any allocation of delegates below the 73 that amount gives her would violate the fair reflection rule.

An important second point about Rule 13: Should the remaining delegates, allocated when voters cast ballots for the "undeclared" option on the ballot, be seated, the committee will then have to decide who controls selection of those delegates.

"If a presidential candidate (including uncommitted status) has qualified to receive delegates and alternates but has failed to slate a sufficient number of delegate and alternate candidates, then additional delegates and alternates for that preference will be selected in a special post-primary procedure," Rule 13(c) states. Whether the Obama campaign controls access to that post-primary procedure, in which delegate slots become named delegates, will be hotly contested by the Clinton campaign.

However, it is highly unlikely that the Rules and Bylaws Committee will adopt any plan that would not hand full control of at least 59 delegates -- or 29.5 total delegate votes -- to Obama.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 02:50 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Michigan Democratic Party Chairman Mark Brewer, himself a member of the Rules and Bylaws Committee, relied heavily on the importance of the state's electoral votes to a Democratic candidate's chances in November. Acknowledging their case is weaker than Florida's, especially given that a Democratic governor signed the legislation, Brewer still asked the committee to reseat all of the state's 128 convention delegates. That re-establishment of full voting rights, some committee members told Politics Nation, is unlikely.

Under a compromise plan agreed to by four prominent Democrats in the state -- Senator Carl Levin, Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, DNC member Debbie Dingell and United Auto Workers chief Ron Gettelfinger -- Brewer asked the committee allocate 69 delegates for Hillary Clinton and 59 delegates to Barack Obama. That is a smaller number for Clinton than the 73 delegates she would have won from the January 15 primary, and a smaller number for Obama than the even 64-64 split his campaign had advocated.

"The Michigan Democratic Party has achieved unity. We're asking you to preserve it," Senator Carl Levin told committee members. "There is no scientific way to reach the conclusion that we reached. But there is a fair way."

Such a division, though, would create a problem for the Rules and Bylaws Committee. Several members questioned whether the committee even had the authority to do so, given that Michigan's appeal is based less on established rules than on political consideration. "Are you relying on any rule?" asked committee member Eric Kleinfeld, a Clinton backer. "No, but we have to do something in this situation," Brewer responded. "I wish it were more. I wish it were better. It's all we have."

Brewer faced a withering assault from Clinton supporters who questioned whether allocating uncommitted delegates to Barack Obama. Under party rules, "uncommitted" is a legitimate choice for primary voters. Obama backers on the committee suggested the assumptions made to allocate delegates severely underestimated the Illinois Senator's potential in the state.

While Florida's case has won sympathy from some committee members, given the Republican tilt of the state legislature, Michigan's move to the head of the pack is a prime reason the committee sits in a hotel ballroom on a Saturday. Introducing Levin as the "grandfather" of the revised calendar commission, committee co-chair Alexis Herman said the senator has been the "most spirited" advocate of calendar changes.

Levin, after all, has been the most vociferous agitator for a new set of calendar rules, and his efforts propelled the date change. "Michigan decided years ago that no state should have the right to go first and second in every election. No state," Levin declared. "We're not going to sit by and do nothing for another decade or two," he said later.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Representatives from the Florida delegation finished their presentations to the Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting this morning by acknowledging they had broken party rules but that their primary should count anyway, both to put the state in play in November and because Republicans were truly to blame.

DNC member Jon Ausman, Senator Bill Nelson and representatives from both presidential campaigns urged the adoption of a plan that would return the 185 seats at the Denver convention in August and award each delegate half a vote. The state's super delegates would be given their full votes under Ausman's petition.

But to convince Rules and Bylaws Committee members to accept the proposal, presenters relied on blaming the GOP. Nelson, in a sharp exchange with one committee member, pointed out that the vehicle for moving the primary ahead of the pre-approved February 5 window was a bill pushed through the Republican-controlled state legislature, and that the party had neither the time nor the money to hold their own later contest.

"We recognize in fact that Florida has violated the timing rule," Ausman admitted. But, he and others argued, by not counting the 1.75 million votes cast in January, national Democrats would essentially take the state off the table in November. Refusing the count the votes, State Senator Arthena Joyner argued, would be comparable to Apartheid South Africa.

Joyner represented the Clinton campaign while Rep. Robert Wexler spoke on the Obama campaign's behalf. While Ausman's plan would hand Clinton a net gain of 19 additional delegates, Wexler said the Obama campaign would accept the compromise. "Senator Obama offers this concession in order to promote reconciliation among all Florida voters," Wexler said, pointing to the broad support for the plan. "If we in Florida can get it together and be unified, if we can keep our eye on the ball in November, so can you."

While some RBC members are hesitant to reinstate votes, mindful of the consequences in four years, most seem willing to accept the argument that Republicans were to blame. Votes on a solution to the Florida problem are expected after an early afternoon lunch break, followed by what is expected to be a more contentious debate over Michigan's delicate delegate situation.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 12:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Rules and Bylaws Committee members reached a tentative agreement on a solution for seating Florida's delegates, the Huffington Post reports this morning. Three Rules and Bylaws Committee members confirm to Politics Nation that parts of an agreement were reached at a meeting that lasted late into the evening on Friday, though two caution a fight could still loom.

Under the agreement, the entire Florida delegation will be seated and will be given one half of one vote. That compromise, which would net Hillary Clinton a net gain of nineteen delegates over Barack Obama, is agreeable to both campaigns and a majority of committee members. An agreement on whether super delegates will be given a full or a half vote has yet to be reached.

Florida DNC member Jon Ausman, who has brought two challenges before the Rules and Bylaws Committee today, will address members in moments, along with Senator Bill Nelson, Florida Democratic Party Chair Karen Thurman and Rep. Robert Wexler.

Despite a late night -- committee members reportedly remained in informal session until 1:30 a.m. Saturday morning -- no compromise has been reached on a solution to Michigan's delegate crisis. Senator Carl Levin and other top Michigan officials will speak to the committee this morning, seeking a full reinstatement of the state's delegation with their full allocation of votes.

That solution, which would produce 73 delegates for Clinton and 55 uncommitted delegates, is highly unlikely to garner the votes necessary to pass. Committee members are expected to fight over whether Barack Obama's campaign will have control over the state's uncommitted delegates, whether they have full or half votes. Top Democrats in the state have proposed a solution by which Clinton would control 69 delegates and Obama would control 59 delegates.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:25 AM | Email Author | Permalink

A quick clip-and-save: Below are the members of the Rules and Bylaws Committee and the candidates they are supporting:

Clinton Backers
Tina Flournoy (DC)
Donald Fowler (SC)
Jamie Gonzalez Jr. (TX)*
Alice Huffman (CA)
Harold Ickes (DC)
Ben Johnson (DC)
Elaine Kamarck (MA)
Eric Kleinfeld (DC)
Mona Pasquil (CA)
Mame Reiley (VA)
Garry Shay (CA)
Elizabeth Smith (DC)
Michael Steed (MD)

Obama Backers
Martha Fuller Clark (NH)
Carol Khare Fowler (SC)
Janice Griffin (MD)
Thomas Hynes (IL)
Allan Katz (FL)
Sharon Stroschein (SD)
Sarah Swisher (IA)*
Everett Ward (NC)

Uncommitted
Donna Brazile (DC)
Mark Brewer (MI)
Ralph Dawson (NY)
Yvonne Atkinson Gates (NV)
Alice Germond (WV)
David McDonald (WA)
Jerome Wiley Segovia (VA)

Notes: Gonzalez is not in attendance at the meeting. His proxy goes to fellow Clinton backer Flournoy. Swisher's daughter is getting married today, and her proxy goes to fellow Obama backer Martha Fuller Clark.

Committee co-chairs James Roosevelt, of Massachusetts, and former Labor Secretary Alexis Herman, of Virginia, are both neutral super delegates. They vote only in case of a tie.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Thirty Democratic National Committee members who hold the fates of Florida and Michigan delegates in their hands are meeting this morning at a Washington hotel at what is expected to be the final meeting of the Rules and Bylaws Committee before the August convention. Committee members will hear testimony on three challenges to party rules that seek to reverse an earlier decision that stripped the two states of their delegates.

A few hundred protesters, mostly from Florida, bussed to the Wardman Park Marriott this morning to show their support, while dozens of reporters are crammed into a mezzanine overlooking the meeting room. Prominent Florida super delegates, among them Senator Bill Nelson, a Clinton backer, and Rep. Robert Wexler, a Barack Obama supporter, and Michigan super delegates packed the room as well.

Stay with Politics Nation all day as we bring you live gavel-to-gavel coverage of the Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting. For background and what's expected of today's event, check out our primer from yesterday.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:45 AM | Email Author | Permalink

A perfect Friday moment: As Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton head to Oregon to woo voters, they are also wooing a new local press corps, showering time and attention on local reporters and editors. The Oregonian gets its turn, as do daily papers in Eugene, Salem and other significant locals. But when a candidate gets to some of the smaller outlets, the questions can get downright weird.

In perhaps the strangest interview front-running Obama has ever had to go through, Willamette Week, an alternative weekly in Portland, hit on the key issues important to voters in the City of Roses. Obama told the interviewer he would stop federal agents' raids on Oregon's medical marijuana farms and he would negotiate with counties affected by a wounded timber industry.

Obama had nice things to say about the state's Republican Senator, Gordon Smith, who could face a tough battle for re-election this year. But the candidate stayed on message: "I think Gordon Smith's problem is that he rarely breaks away from George Bush and the Republican agenda that I think has done this country great damage," Obama said. "But personally I think he's a perfectly decent person." Obama professed to have no opinion on the race's Democratic primary.

To finish, the paper put the really tough question to Obama: What kind of tattoo would he have? Take a look at the transcript:

Willamette Week: If you had a tattoo, what would it be and where would you put it?

Barack Obama: Uh, I cannot imagine any circumstances in which I would get a tattoo.

W.W.: If you were under duress.

B.O.: If a gun was put to my head?

W.W.: Yes.

B.O.: Then I suppose I'd have to have [his wife] Michelle's name tattooed somewhere very discreet.

Funny enough, in the twenty minutes the paper got with Clinton, early in April, she too indicated she would only get a tattoo under duress. "If I was under duress? Gosh, I have been asked millions of questions, and no one has ever asked me that. I have so little interest in having a tattoo, that I just am going to have to ponder this," Clinton said. "It can be really, really small, right? I think it would be really, really small, like under a microscope, and it would say 'love.'" Clinton declined to say where her body art would be featured.

We wonder if either candidate has seriously thought about a plan to fight what must apparently be the rampant rash of vicious gangs marauding through American streets putting guns to people's heads and forcing them to get tattoos.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 02:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

After flipping through hundreds of Federal Election Commission reports detailing the daily lives of every candidate under the sun, we've come to a close. Check back on the posts we've had up over the last week, inspecting the hot House races of the cycle:

The Northeast, the Mid-Atlantic, Pennsylvania, The South, Florida, the Ohio Valley, the Dust Bowl, the Rocky Mountains, the Desert West, the West Coast, the Northern Mississippi, and the Great Lakes, both Western and Eastern, along with the House campaign committees.

Taking a gander at all those House races means there are bound to be a few massive glaring errors, and for those Politics Nation apologizes. Thanks to everyone who pointed out, for example:

-- That Lou Barletta, running against Rep. Paul Kanjorski in Pennsylvania, is the mayor of Hazelton, not Scranton.

-- That some of the numbers in New Jersey reflected the cash on hand statistics for the end of 2007, not for the end of the First Quarter in 2008. In New Jersey's Third District, State Senator John Adler finished March with $1 million in the bank after raising $1.17 million, $500,000 more than we'd reported. In the Seventh District, 2006 candidate and Assemblywoman Linda Stender has $845,000 remaining after raising nearly $1.05 million. Our numbers for two Republicans in each of those districts were accurate.

-- That Indiana's primary is on May 6, not May 13 (You'd think, with all the presidential hoopla, that we would have remembered that.).

-- That Ashwin Madia, the Democratic nominee for Congress in Minnesota's Third District, could use a better descriptor than "Democratic activist." Madia is a lawyer, an Iraq war veteran and not exactly the biggest Democrat in the history of the world, either. Roll Call's Shira Toeplitz pointed us to this interview, with Minnesota Public Radio, in which Madia admits that he voted for President Bush in 2000 after telling the same station that he voted for Al Gore that year.

-- That Bob Onder, the candidate for Congress in Missouri's 9th District who has raised the most money to date, is in fact a Republican, not a Democrat.

-- That Wayne Parker, a Republican, is running for Congress in Alabama's Fifth District. Parker filed his organizational paperwork with the FEC on April 4, and we just plain missed it. He raised $177,000 in the first few days of his candidacy.

Other mistakes we made? Candidates we missed? Feel free to email us your comments and complaints.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 02:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Despite just eleven governor's mansions being on the ballot this year, Washington-based committees that will help their parties defend and contest those seats are raising record amounts of money. Beyond this year, when just four contests are expected to be competitive, both parties are already looking ahead to 2010 when three dozen seats will be up for election.

The Democratic Governors' Association will report raising $5.7 million when they file first quarter reports next week. That leaves the committee with $10.5 million in the bank, more than they have ever held after the initial three months of the year. In a statement, DGA finance chairman Martin O'Malley, governor of Maryland, predicted the committee would raise more this year than it ever has. "We are off to a great start, and we're not slowing down," O'Malley said.

But officials at the Republican Governors' Association are also confident in their fundraising abilities, and the committee will report receipts of about $1.3 million more than their Democratic rivals. The RGA raised just over $7 million in the first quarter, and will show $14.6 million in the bank when they file their reports with the FEC. "It says a lot about the RGA that we're outraising the Democrats when they have the strong upper hand," Mississippi Governor and RGA finance chair Haley Barbour said in a statement.

The two committees will likely spend their money battling over open seats in North Carolina, where Democrat Mike Easley is term-limited, and Missouri, where Republican Matt Blunt surprised observers by dropping his bid for re-election earlier this year. Two incumbents -- Washington State Democrat Christine Gregoire and Indiana Republican Mitch Daniels -- will also face tough fights to keep their jobs.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 01:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Meeting reporters at Democratic National Committee headquarters yesterday, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Chris Van Hollen and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Chuck Schumer strove to tamp down expectations of optimism, casting their battle to extend their majorities as a battle against history.

Only once in recent memory has a party that benefited from a wave election gone on to win seats two years later, the two pointed out; after Democrats picked up 49 seats after Watergate, in 1974, the party netted an additional seat two years later. But after waves in pro-Democratic waves 1982 and 1992, Republicans took back a large number of seats the next time out.

This year, Van Hollen said, "We think that we are in a position to beat history." Democrats have already picked up a seat, after a special election victory in Illinois last month, but the party promises to stay on offense. "The big story we've seen in this cycle is, rather than just having to circle the wagons and play defense, we were able to put together a plan and stay very much on offense," he said.

House Democratic strategists contend they will target between 45 and 50 Republican-held seats, and combined with as many as 25 Democratic seats they will have to defend, as many as 75 seats could be seriously contested come November. That helps the party with the cash advantage, and Van Hollen, pointing to what is likely to be a four- or five-to-one cash on hand edge when reports come out later this month, said his party is "comfortably ahead" in that race.

Schumer characterized the 2008 contests as a potentially "tectonic" election, akin to the 1932 Democratic sweep and Republican gains in 1980. Those epic contests come when citizens' basic relationship to government changes, and Schumer said he believes the country is near that point.

But overconfidence is a concern, Schumer said, and Democrats can't risk getting ahead of themselves. "You don't want to get too enthusiastic at this time," he said, proceeding to rattle off states where he says his party will win big. Democratic candidates lead their Republican counterparts in five GOP-held states in DSCC polling, Schumer said, pointing to Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico and Alaska. Three other Republican Senators, Maine's Susan Collins, Oregon's Gordon Smith and Norm Coleman of Minnesota, are "within reach."

Perhaps most importantly, only one Democratic incumbent is in real trouble, Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu. In five states President Bush carried in 2004 -- Iowa, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana and Arkansas -- Democratic incumbents face only nominal opposition (Arkansas Democrat Mark Pryor will not even face a Republican opponent in the fall.).

Farther down the target list, Schumer characterized Republican incumbents in North Carolina, Mississippi and Kentucky as within "striking range," and he talked up candidates less likely to win in Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Georgia, Idaho and Texas.

Van Hollen and Schumer rejected the notion that John McCain would play a positive role for Republican candidates, arguing that voters want fundamental change. "McCain is not going to be able to be a change candidate, given his record and his views," Schumer said. "The war in Iraq is an albatross around his neck." On their party's side, both said either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama would help out their downballot candidates, "with the one caveat that we make sure that both candidates stay positive," Van Hollen warned.

And both chairmen warned of the possibility of involvement from independent organizations running issue ads on behalf of Republican candidates. Singling out one such group, Van Hollen said the assault had already begun. "Freedom's Watch, and others, have expressed now more than an interest in getting involved" in contests, he said, pointing to Ohio, where the 501(c)(4) organization ran ads slamming the Democratic candidate. Schumer pointed to ads running on behalf of Minnesota Senator Norm Coleman by a Colorado-based group, as well.

But perhaps the biggest concern the party should have is the possibility of getting ahead of itself. Democrats are being careful when playing the expectations game in the next contest, coming next month in Louisiana where State Rep. Don Cazayoux has a strong chance to defeat Republican former State Rep. Woody Jenkins in a special election. "We have a very good candidate," Van Hollen said, referring to Cazayoux. "We're clearly the underdogs in a district like that."

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:30 AM | Email Author | Permalink

More than forty Democratic candidates released a joint plan yesterday promising to work for legislation calling for an immediate draw down of troops in Iraq, the Washington Post's Paul Kane reports. While the group stopped short of setting an exact date for withdrawal, their plan calls for the U.S. to leave only a security detail to protect the U.S. embassy.

The focus on Iraq runs counter to most Democrats' assertions that the economy will be the number-one issue voters are thinking of. The challengers' plan goes farther than most other top Democrats, Kane writes, who prefer to leave troops in the country to train new Iraqi forces.

Led by Washington State Democrat Darcy Burner, who lost a close battle with Republican Rep. Dave Reichert in 2006, the coalition of challengers is made up of hot prospects and longshots alike. Maryland Democrat Donna Edwards, who beat incumbent Democrat Al Wynn in February, is almost guaranteed to serve in Congress. Chellie Pingree, running to replace Rep. Tom Allen in Maine, leads her primary field by a wide margin in a safely Democratic seat as well.

Other candidates are, like Burner, top recruits in Republican-held districts. Eric Massa, the New York Democrat, came up just short against Republican Rep. Randy Kuhl, and Jill Derby, chair of the Nevada Democratic Party, ran a stronger than expected campaign against freshman Republican Dean Heller in the state's northern Second District.

But the group has more than its share of candidates national Democrats are rather less excited about. Former Iowa state legislator Ed Fallon, who finished third in the state's gubernatorial primary last year but ran a stronger than expected campaign from the left, is running in a primary against long-time Democratic incumbent Leonard Boswell. The Des Moines-based district is more moderate than Boswell's big winning percentages indicate, giving Republicans a shot if the seat suddenly features no incumbent. And former Rep. Leslie Byrne, running to replace retiring Republican Tom Davis in Northern Virginia, is many national strategists' second choice, behind Fairfax County Council chair Gerry Connolly.

Four Senate candidates joined the 38 House challengers endorsing the plan. In Oregon, where the Democratic primary to take on Republican incumbent Gordon Smith has moved decidedly left, both State House Speaker Jeff Merkley and attorney Steve Novick have signed on, as have longer-shot candidates in Kentucky and Tennessee.

Burner, who has long made Iraq the centerpiece of her campaign platform, also secured backing for the plan from Major General Paul Eaton, a retired officer who served in prominent positions in Iraq, and Lawrence Korb, who served as Assistant Secretary of Defense under Ronald Reagan.

The group launched the proposal, which they hope capitalizes on continuing voter discontent with the five-year old war, as violence again erupted throughout Iraq. Security forces have issued a three-day curfew in Baghdad to gain control of the situation, while fighting in the southern city of Basra, once the domain of British forces before they withdrew, rages between Shiite militias and government forces, CNN reported today. Increased fighting in the country's capitol city, especially in Sadr City, is bringing U.S. troops into harm's way more often, the Washington Post also reports.

A recent analysis from the Pew Research Center shows public opinion is decidedly mixed over Iraq. While a strong majority says the decision to go into the country was the wrong idea, though the same percentage say the war is going either well or poorly, at 48% each. 49% say the U.S. should bring troops home as soon as possible, while 47% say troops should stay in the country until Iraq is stabilized.

Still, Americans largely trust Democrats more than Republicans to handle Iraq. The Pew survey showed 47% choosing the Democratic Party, while 37% said Republicans would better handle the situation. Of twelve issues surveyed, Republicans led only on handling of terrorist threats. If Democrats, and particularly the 42 challengers backing the plan for getting out of the country, can stick to a message about Iraq while avoiding GOP talk of terrorism, they could be successful in November.

But maybe national party leaders, who have focused more on the economy of late, have a point: The party's 10-point advantage on Iraq is not nearly as strong as its 53%-34% edge on issues surrounding the economy.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

The host committee for the 2008 Democratic National Convention in Denver has missed a key fundraising goal, the Rocky Mountain News reports today. The committee, which was supposed to come up with $28 million by yesterday, stands about $5 million short, according to a spokesman.

It is the second time Denver has missed a deadline, making some nervous the party might not reach the $40.6 million goal by mid-June. Even that figure, the spokesman said, is probably short of the $45 to $50 million convention organizers will need to operate the four-day event without going into debt. Those watching convention fundraising suggest the shortfall is caused by the lack of a Democratic nominee.

Still, the missed deadline is not likely to have a dramatic impact, as convention committees routinely miss deadlines. The $23 million raised is almost twice what organizers had pulled in by the end of March, 2004, when the committee setting up the Boston convention had raised only $12.7 million.

Republicans also find themselves in better position than four years ago, with $15.3 million raised through December 31, ahead of the $13.5 million they reported at the end of 2003. Both committees will file new FEC reports on April 15, just after the first quarter ends.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 02:00 PM | Email Author | Permalink

A new report from the Federal Election Commission shows House Democrats were more generous with their own campaign cash than House Republicans in the first thirteen months of the cycle. The transfers, from candidates' campaign committees to the DCCC and the NRCC, are just a part of the large cash disadvantage Republicans face.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which had nearly $35.1 million in the bank through January 31, accumulated the money with the assistance of about $18.4 million from their caucus members. Top donors included House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who kicked in $785,000; Whip Jim Clyburn, with $770,000; Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, who donated $685,000; committee chairs Charlie Rangel and Barney Frank, with $685,000 and $550,000, respectively; caucus chairman Rahm Emanuel, who gave $475,000; and current DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen, who donated $435,000 to his own cause.

Those numbers do not include Democratic members' pledges to raise additional funds for the DCCC. Depending on their position in the House, members have to raise additional funds for the committee, ranging from less than $100,000 to tens of millions of dollars. How much each member has to raise, though, is a closely-guarded secret.

Republicans lagged far behind Democratic contributions, with just $10.6 million in donations to the beleaguered NRCC. Minority Leader John Boehner dropped $845,000 from his own campaign account, while Reps. Dave Camp ($480,000), Wally Herger ($300,000), Kay Granger ($265,000) and Cliff Sterns ($262,500) wrote big checks. All four are said to be seeking prime committee slots. Retiring Reps. Jim McCrery and Jim Saxton helped out, donating $490,000 and $275,000 from their soon-to-be-shuttered campaign accounts.

While Republicans have a smaller caucus than Democrats, their average member is still giving far less than the average Democrat. Democrats are ponying up just shy of $80,000 per member, while Republicans are giving about $53,500 each. What is more impressive is that most Democratic freshmen, especially those facing tough re-election battles, are forgiven dues for at least their first term.

Boehner, who has worked hard to keep his caucus together, has grown increasingly frustrated with some members. At a GOP caucus meeting last week, Boehner told members to get off their "dead asses," as Politico's Patrick O'Connor reported, to help the NRCC raise money. NRCC chair Tom Cole and minority whip Roy Blunt also urged members to help the committee raise money for the party's March 12 fundraising dinner, O'Connor wrote.

Even if the NRCC makes its $7.5 million goal, and even if members begin handing over more sizable checks to the national party, Republicans have a long way to go to catch up. The NRCC reported just $6.4 million in the bank after January 31, nearly $29 million behind Democrats.

Democrats are raising more money than Republicans virtually across the board, and compared with 2005, the last pre-election year, and 2003, the last pre-presidential year, Democrats are performing better than they were and showing increases that outpace the GOP. In 2007, the DCCC's cash receipts grew 57%, while the committee's receipts grew 136% over 2003. Republicans, meanwhile, saw their fundraising shrink by 22% from 2005 and 31% over 2003.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 10:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

The campaign wing of the House Republican caucus narrowly outraised its Democratic counterpart in January, though the NRCC remains well behind the DCCC in total cash in the bank. FEC reports released yesterday show a minor victory for NRCC chair Tom Cole, but DCCC chief Chris Van Hollen retains bragging rights.

In January, the NRCC raised almost $3.8 million and has a bank account of $6.4 million. They retain a debt of slightly over $2.3 million. The DCCC raised just over $3.7 million and spent much more than Republicans. Democrats have $35.5 million in the bank and $1.7 million in debts and obligations.

Senate Republicans are in relatively better position with regard to their Democratic opponents. The NRSC raised $3.5 million in January, banking $1.2 million of that for a total bank account of $13.2 million. But the DSCC raised $3.9 million last month, a faster clip than the NRSC, and ended with $30.5 million cash on hand.

While Senate Republicans enjoy a smaller disadvantage than their House counterparts, their fundraising pace has been slower than each of the other three committees in recent months. They banked more than Democrats last month by spending $600,000 less than the DSCC.

While both Democratic campaign wings are easily outpacing their GOP counterparts in money in the bank, Howard Dean's Democratic National Committee fell farther behind Mike Duncan's Republican National Committee last month. The DNC raised $5.76 million in January and banked just $60,000, ending the month with $3 million in the bank and a $250,000 debt. The RNC, meanwhile, pulled in $11.8 million and kept more than $21.7 million in the bank.

In total, Democrats have a big fundraising advantage. Together, the three committees have $69 million in the bank, while Republican committees have $41.3 million lying around.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Excerpts from Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius' Democratic response to President Bush's State of the Union:

"In this time, normally reserved for the partisan response, I hope to offer you something more."

"An American Response."

"A national call to action on behalf of the struggling families in the heartland, and across this great country. A wakeup call to Washington, on behalf of a new American majority, that time is running out on our opportunities to meet our challenges and solve our problems."

On the Economy:

"Our struggling economy requires urgent and immediate action, and then sustained attention. Families can't pay their bills. They are losing their jobs, and now are threatened with losing their homes."

"We heard last week and again tonight that Congress and the President are acting quickly, on a temporary, targeted stimulus package. That is encouraging. But you and I know that a temporary fix is only the first step toward meeting our challenges and solving our problems."

On the Need to Work Together:

"There is a chance Mr. President, in the next 357 Days, to get real results, and give the American people renewed optimism that their challenges are the top priority. Working together, working hard, committing to results, we can get the job done."

"In fact, over the last year, the new Democratic majority in Congress has begun to move us in a new direction, with bipartisan action on significant initiatives to bolster our national security, raise the minimum wage, and reduce the costs of college loans."

"These are encouraging first steps. But there is still more to be done."

On Charting a New Course:

"The new Democratic majority of Congress and the vast majority of Americans are ready - ready to chart a new course. If more Republicans in Congress stand with us this year, we won't have to wait for a new President to restore America's role in the world, and fight a more effective war on terror."

On Iraq:

"The last five years have cost us dearly - in lives lost; in thousands of wounded warriors whose futures may never be the same; in challenges not met here at home because our resources were committed elsewhere. America's foreign policy has left us with fewer allies and more enemies."

On Working for the Common Good:

"I know government can work to benefit the people we serve, because I see it every day, not only here in Kansas, but in states across the country. I know government can work, Mr. President, because like you, I grew up in a family committed to public service. My father and my father in law both served in Congress - one a Republican and one a Democrat. They had far more in common than the issues that divided them - a love for their country that led them from military service to public service. A lifetime of working for the common good, making sacrifices so their children and grandchildren could have a better future."

On Transforming America:

"These are uncertain times, but with strength and determination, we can meet the challenges together. If Washington can work together, so quickly, on a short-term fix for families caught in the financial squeeze, then we can work together to transform America."

Posted by Reid Wilson at 05:50 PM | Email Author | Permalink

In 2006, as Democrats won congressional districts across the country that for years were not thought to be competitive, few metropolitan areas provided greater political theater than the Philadelphia suburbs. Pennsylvania's 6th and 8th Congressional Districts were decided by a grand total of 2 points, while in the 7th District, the home of the incumbent's daughter was raided by the FBI less than a month before the November election.

It is still unclear how competitive these districts will be in 2008, but both parties have been scouring their bases for legitimate challengers. The Philadelphia suburbs have been trending Democratic--John Kerry and Al Gore each won all three districts by slim margins--even as these three districts were represented in Congress by Republicans prior to 2006.

In Republican Congressman Jim Gerlach's 6th District, Democrats have had a laundry list of potential challengers turn down a bid, including Christopher Casey, the brother of Senator Bob Casey. The district has been competitive since its inception after the 2002 redistricting. Gerlach barely avoided a loss once again in 2006, winning by a 51%-49% margin for the third straight year. Democrat Lois Murphy, who lost to Gerlach in 2004 and 2006, has declined to run again. But Democrats reportedly have not given up on Casey yet.

In the 7th District, freshman Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak received late campaign advertising in 2006 that money cannot buy. The FBI raid on the home of incumbent Republican Curt Weldon's daughter was caught on film by local news media and shown across the country. This allowed Sestak to breeze into Congress with an 8-point victory. But the retired 2-star Navy admiral just got his first credible challenger in W. Craig Williams, the now-former assistant U.S. attorney from Philadelphia and a veteran of the Gulf War. Williams was endorsed January 15 by the Delaware County GOP Committee.

Democrat Patrick Murphy, the youngest member of the congressional freshman class of 2006, defeated one-term incumbent Mike Fitzpatrick by a margin of 1,518 votes. This Bucks County-centered district had been represented in Congress by a Republican since 1992. At least three Republicans are currently running for the chance to take on Murphy, who is the only veteran of the Iraq war serving in Congress. One of the candidates is Tom Manion, a retired Colonel in the Marine Corps Reserve and the father of a soldier who died in Iraq. Manion already has the support of Fitzpatrick and Bucks County GOP Committee chairman Harry Fawkes. And with Murphy winning by such a small margin in 2006, the NRCC is likely to step in with financial support as well.

National Democrats certainly see a chance to pick up a seat in the 6th District, but holding on to the 7th and 8th districts may be equally challenging.

--Kyle Trygstad

Posted by Kyle Trygstad at 11:25 AM | Email Author | Permalink

The labor movement has undergone significant turmoil in recent years, as major national unions have split, enrollment figures have dropped and the movement has seen its influence in Democratic circles wane. The Nevada caucuses, partially intended to give labor a bigger voice in picking a president, have only increased the tumult.

Barack Obama's endorsement from the Culinary Workers' union has given other labor groups in the state the impetus to work harder for their own candidate, the Las Vegas Sun reports today. Despite the impression given in non-stop press coverage of the Culinary Workers' nod, they are far from the only union in the state. Clinton is backed by eight labor groups, while John Edwards enjoys support from four. Obama has two others.

Even those who back the same candidate are targeting each other. Nevada's SEIU chapter, which announced its backing of Obama the same day as the Culinary Workers, shouted down a suggestion of a joint press conference, the Sun writes, opting instead to get their news out first and beat their rivals.

Now, Nevada's teachers' union, which has not endorsed, has filed a lawsuit to force caucus-goers to meet in their home precincts, stripping caucus locations from some Strip casinos, where culinary workers would have access to them on caucus night. It's a direct shot at the casino workers' organization, which brushes the attack aside as targeting the biggest fish in the pond. The state AFL-CIO is neutral, but other unions in the state back the teachers.

The Culinary Workers backed Democratic gubernatorial nominee Dina Titus in 2006, though they had backed former Republican Governor Kenny Guinn twice. Titus herself is backing Hillary Clinton. A split among labor voters will keep the primary competitive, but should they fail to come together by the time the general rolls around, Democratic hopes of finally winning a state that's been trending their way but has remained just out of reach might be dashed.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 11:00 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius will offer the Democratic response to President Bush's State of the Union address, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid announced today. Sebelius, in her second term as the Democratic governor of an overwhelmingly Republican state, won re-election with 58% of the vote in 2006.

The American people "demand leadership focused squarely on solving our problems, making the most of our opportunities, and moving America forward," Sebelius said in a statement. "That is exactly the kind of leadership we've demonstrated in Kansas, and I am honored to share that example with the American people in response to the President's State of the Union message."

The Democratic leaders also announced Texas State Senator Leticia Van de Putte would offer the Spanish-language version of the Democratic response. Bush's speech is set for January 28. The last two Democratic responders have hailed from Virginia; Governor Tim Kaine delivered the response in January 2006, while Senator Jim Webb spoke in January of 2007.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 04:15 PM | Email Author | Permalink

Time for a year-end look at five moments that fundamentally altered the way the Democratic race has played out:

5. September 26 -- Edwards accepts public financing. Casting it as a move to ensure openness and a way to shut out lobbyists and special interests, John Edwards declared in late Spetember that he would accept public financing in his bid for the Democratic nomination. The decision gave him access to millions he might not otherwise have raised, but it also severely curtailed spending. Edwards, once seen as the obvious yin to Hillary Clinton's yang, has been marginalized to some degree by Barack Obama. And while Clinton and Obama each raised upwards of $75 million in the first three quarters of the year, Edwards has struggled in a distant third place.

Edwards' decision hurt him in several ways. Aside from curtailed spending in early primary states he needed to win, he also lost support among many of his one-time fans in the liberal blogosphere. Kos, for one, said that the acceptance of public money meant Edwards was not viable, and though he maintained good relations with the netroots, Edwards needed them to be for him in a much stronger way.

4. August 4 -- Clinton attends YearlyKos. The liberal netroots, who in 2006 helped raise million for the Democratic Party and claims responsibility for victories by several second-tier Democratic congressional hopefuls who pulled off big upsets, had their knives out for Hillary Clinton early. Unhappy with triangulation and furious with what they saw as timid moderation, the netroots wanted an unabashed progressive who would fight for their cause; it is little wonder that John Edwards had won online straw polls at DailyKos for more than a year.

But Clinton decided to attend the largest gathering of liberal bloggers of the year, showing up at YearlyKos in Chicago and held a breakout session to get to know a new set of opinion makers in the Democratic column. Clinton's moves to placate the netroots -- communications director Howard Wolfson fought Bill O'Reilly over YearlyKos; Clinton earned the endorsement of netroots hero Joe Wilson and announced it on a conference call with bloggers; in the Senate, she worked on a bill to provide paper trails in voting machines -- had a hugely important effect: The netroots still didn't like her, but at least they didn't hate her.

Whether it was DailyKos or the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee that got certain candidates elected is subject to debate. But it was certainly the netroots that brought down Democratic Senator Joe Lieberman in his primary last year. By making sure lefty bloggers did not hate her, Clinton escaped what could have been a blogosphere-wide effort to bring her down.

3. October 30 -- Clinton stumbles in Philadelphia. In early debates, Hillary Clinton provided no zingers, no great lines and no winning moments. But she was the front-runner, and because she did not lose, she won. Again and again, Obama, Edwards and others tried and failed to land a punch. It was left to Tim Russert, moderating a debate in Philadelphia the day before Halloween, to throw Clinton off her game.

Clinton seemed on her way to another flawless debate performance until Russert asked her whether she agreed with New York Governor Eliot Spitzer's decision to grant driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. Clinton hemmed and hawed, offering what her opponents criticized as two answers in two minutes. The sheen began to come off the impenitrable armor of the inevitable candidate.

Obama speaks in Des Moines
on December 27

Posted by Reid Wilson at 09:02 AM | Email Author | Permalink

Three new polls in three very different states out today show not everything is rosy for Democrats. It's been a difficult year for three elected officials, which could lead to opportunities for Republicans down the road.

In Nevada, a lesson is rapidly emerging: It does not pay to be Senate Democratic leader. A Mason-Dixon poll, conducted 12/3-5 for the Las Vegas Review Journal, shows just 41% of the 625 registered voters think Sen. Harry Reid is doing an excellent or good job, while 58% say his job performance is fair or poor. That's about the same as unpopular Governor Jim Gibbons, a Republican, who clocked in at a 41% to 54% margin.

Is it bad to be a Republican leader? Or is it just better to be a few steps down the leadership chain? John Ensign probably doesn't care, as long as the NRSC chief remains popular in the Silver State. He enjoys a 57% excellent or good rating, while 40% rate him as fair or poor.

In New York, a Quinnipiac University poll taken just before Eliot Spitzer's one-year anniversary as governor demonstrates his difficult year. Only 37% of the 1,083 respondents in the poll, taken 12/4-10, approved of the way Spitzer is doing his job, while 48% disapprove. Independents are slightly less favorably disposed to Spitzer, by a 35%-49% margin. 21% say things have gotten worse while Spitzer has been governor, while just 7% say things are getting better.

By contrast, the state's two Senators, Hillary Clinton and Chuck Schumer, are very popular. Even though she's on the presidential campaign trail, 64% approve of Clinton's job performance, while 59% like the job Schumer is doing. 29% disapprove of Clinton, while 22% disapprove of Schumer.

In neighboring New Jersey, the news isn't much better. Quinnipiac surveyed 1,085 registered voters there, between 12/5-9, and found that Governor Jon Corzine has just a 46% to 43% approval rating, while only 38% are satisfied with the situation in New Jersey. 62% say they are dissatisfied.

Corzine leads a generic Republican by a 41% to 31% margin, though just 44% say he deserves re-election and 43% say he does not. Senator Frank Lautenberg, whose seat comes up for re-election next year, has a 42% job approval rating, with 33% disapprove. Before Republicans get too excited, though, they should look at recent history. Lautenberg has never been the most popular senator, and neither have his seatmates, including Corzine, Sen. Bob Menendez and former Sen. Robert Torricelli.

Still, every time Republicans target one of the seats, sinking millions into ultra-expensive Philadelphia and New York City media markets, they come up short. After State Sen. Tom Kean Jr. lost to Menendez last year, Republicans might be shy about going after Lautenberg too aggressively next year.

Posted by Reid Wilson at 03:30 PM | Email Author | Permalink