Super Tuesday's Under-the-Radar Races
Today's elections feature top-tier Senate and gubernatorial races in California and Nevada, as well as a Senate runoff in Arkansas and competitive GOP primary in the South Carolina governor's race. Those are just the highlights of a full slate of primaries, but there are a handful of intriguing races that will likely fly under the radar as the results pour in tonight.
Here are five races that may not make major newspaper headlines but are certainly ones to keep an eye on:
Iowa's 3rd District GOP Primary
The Iowa Republican Party is preparing to hold a July 10 convention to decide the nominee in the 3rd district, where no one in Tuesday's crowded primary is expected to meet the 35 percent threshold to win the nomination. The GOP sees the district has a potential pick-up opportunity, as Democrat Leonard Boswell runs for an eighth term in office.
One could also be necessary in the 2nd district, where four Republicans are vying to take on second-term Democrat Dave Loebsack.
Conventions are in many ways much different animals than primaries. As state GOP Chairman Matt Strawn said last week on local TV, "It's not the kind of campaign that's waged on the airwaves, but literally hand to hand and house to house." The winner will be decided by 422 previously elected district delegates.
By most accounts, the three leading candidates in the 3rd district are aviation security consultant Dave Funk, financial adviser and former Iowa State wrestling coach Jim Gibbons and state Sen. Brad Zaun.
South Carolina's 4th District GOP Primary
A poll conducted over the weekend found Republican Bob Inglis, running for a seventh term in office, polling 4 points behind primary opponent, Trey Gowdy, a Spartanburg County Solicitor, and receiving just 33 percent support. Inglis is currently in his second stint as congressman of the district; he was first elected in 1992, left to run for Senate in 1998, and returned in 2004. With three others vying for the nomination -- who took a collective 23 percent in the Public Policy Polling survey -- Inglis and Gowdy will likely be forced into a June 22 runoff.
Republicans, no matter who is the nominee, are expected to easily keep the seat red in November. Several third-party and independent candidates are running, as is 2008 Democratic nominee Paul Corden, whom Inglis defeated 60-37 percent.
If he loses to Gowdy today or in two weeks, Inglis will join a growing number of incumbents who were defeated during the primary process. Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln faces a similar fate in today's Democratic primary runoff against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.
Virginia's 11th District Republican Primary
Democrats picked up three House seats in Virginia in 2008. Two -- the 2nd and 5th districts -- have already garnered attention because of their Republican leanings and vulnerable incumbents. But the third district to flip, Northern Virginia's 11th, is far more moderate. Before Democrat Gerry Connolly won it and Barack Obama carried it by 15 points in 2008, moderate Republican Tom Davis represented the district for 14 years.
Both Connolly and Davis are former chairmen of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, and Republican Pat Herrity, who now sits on the board, is aiming for the congressional seat this year. He's up against 2008 GOP nominee Keith Fimian, and the race between them has turned nasty. No matter who wins, the Republican nominee likely won't be able to use the same anti-government theme woven through campaigns across the country -- the district has one of the highest percentages of federal government employees in the country.
North and South Dakota's At-Large District GOP Primaries
With North Dakota Gov. John Hoeven the walk-away favorite to win Democrat Byron Dorgan's open Senate seat in November, the hottest statewide race today is the Republican primary for the state's lone House seat. Democrat Earl Pomeroy turned down a Senate bid in favor of running for a 10th term in the House.
State Rep. Rick Berg -- endorsed by the state party, named a Young Gun by the national party, and stocked with more than $400,000 in cash-on-hand -- is the heavy favorite in the GOP primary and has led Pomeroy in polling each of the last four months. But he'll first need to get past J.D. Donaghe, an oilfield consultant who reported having no money at all as of May 19.
In South Dakota, Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, a leader of the fiscally conservative Blue Dog Democrats, is running for a fourth full term as the state's representative in the House. She's considered a rising star with potential for higher office, but Herseth Sandlin is polling below 50 percent against three potential Republican opponents: Secretary of State Chris Nelson and state Reps. Kristi Noem and Blake Curd.
Curd has already given his campaign nearly $90,000 and had more than $120,000 in the bank as of mid-May -- about three times as much as Nelson or Noem, who both polled a couple points better than Curd against Sandlin. The national party has its eyes on this race as well, and Curd is in the first tier of the Young Guns campaign organization program.