By Kyle Trygstad

With 59 seats in the Senate, an overwhelming majority in the House and a solid victory in the last presidential race, it's practically impossible for any party to test midterm cycle history and not lose a significant number of seats. But in 2010, Democrats are facing the kind of poll numbers and anti-establishment mood that has handicappers predicting the possibility of losing the House entirely, and cutting it close in the Senate.

Still, Democrats believe they're finishing up one of their best weeks in recent memory, and Sen. Robert Menendez, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, sat down with reporters Thursday to explain why.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada learned his general election foe will be Sharron Angle, a tea-party backed former state assemblywoman with views the DSCC believes are too toxic for the general election. And Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln beat the odds and $10 million in spending by labor groups to take a 4-point victory in a runoff against a more liberal Democratic challenger in Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. The Agriculture Committee chairwoman can now run in a race that fits her independent style far better.

"This is a fluid environment, a lot of volatility in the electorate, and I don't' think we've seen the last of the surprises," Menendez said.

A year ago, he noted, most expected Charlie Crist to be the next senator from Florida, Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd appeared set for a showdown with former Rep. Rob Simmons, and Trey Grayson looked like a shoo-in for the nomination in Kentucky. None of those came to fruition, and come November, Menendez said, "I think that gives us a very good sense, in a nutshell, about how the map will be fluid and volatile."

Democrats aim to localize each race and frame them solely as a choice between the merits of two candidates. If they're successful in doing so, Menendez says he likes the party's chances after seeing some of the GOP's nominees.

"Republicans have, in essence, so far elected in their primary process individuals who simply are not good fits for the general election and not good fits for this environment as well," he said. "Their crop of candidates are either the extreme replacing the mainstream or the Republican establishment candidates that don't work as well in this environment."

But the numbers remain on the GOP's side. A recent Gallup poll found that 60 percent of voters would rather support a candidate who has never served in Congress, compared with 32 percent who'd prefer someone with congressional experience. President Obama's approval rating is sub-50 percent, Congress has a historically low approval rating, and Gallup's generic ballot testing currently shows the two parties tied, which is a negative for Democrats who generally run a few points ahead in a normal year.

"A stronger-than-usual anti-incumbent bias is another challenge for a majority Democratic Party that is trying to minimize the losses usually dealt to the president's party in a midterm election year," Gallup's Jeffrey M. Jones wrote Tuesday. Election Day is "still nearly five months away, but typically, voters' attitudes toward incumbents do not change dramatically over the course of an election year."

The news gets worse for incumbents like Reid and Lincoln, who haven't seen much positive movement in the polls in the last year. Jones writes: "To the extent change has occurred in a given election year, it has usually been toward a more negative rather than a more positive view of incumbents."

While Democrats see Angle as too extreme for the general election, the first poll released since Tuesday's primaries found her leading Reid by 11 points. Lincoln has trailed Republican John Boozman by more than 20 points in the last two polls in Arkansas.

Menendez, though, sees room for positive movement. He believes that an improving economy, the reining in of Wall Street and the kicking of benefits of health care reform will improve the mood of voters this fall.

"If on Nov. 1, the day before Election Day," Menendez said, "the environment is that people believe, although they're not fully satisfied, that we are headed in a better direction -- that's the best environment I can hope for on Nov. 2."

Republicans are happy with where they stand today and the National Republican Senatorial Committee believes voters will ultimately hold Democrats responsible in November for high unemployment and increased spending, with the national debt now more than $13 trillion.

"It's no wonder the Democrats are trying to gloss over their own party's contentious divisions and failed policies, but the facts speak for themselves," said NRSC press secretary Amber Marchand. "Republicans are united behind our Senate nominees while the Democrats are still reeling from costly and divisive primaries in Arkansas, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio, Colorado, and Kentucky."