Week In Midterms: Who Benefits Most In Florida?
So Charlie Crist, the Republican governor of Florida, is now an independent. A year ago most expected him to not only walk away with the Republican nomination but also the general election. Today, after announcing the switch at a news conference yesterday afternoon, we have the most interesting and competitive race in the country.
Some have compared the situation to Connecticut circa 2006, when Sen. Joe Lieberman was defeated in the Democratic primary then ran in the general election as an independent. That's a favorable comparison for Crist, who hopes to siphon votes from both Marco Rubio (R) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D).
Crist thinks this helps him because he would've lost the GOP primary. Democrats think this helps Meek, with Crist and Rubio splitting the GOP vote. And Rubio's campaign can't be totally complaining, as it now will begin to receive all the GOP fundraising and support that Crist left on the table.
SENATE
WEEK IN POLLS
*Arizona: PPP - GOP Primary: McCain +11 vs. Hayworth; General: McCain +16, Hayworth -3 vs. Glassman (D).
*Arkansas: Rasmussen: Lincoln (D) down 20+, Halter (D) down 12+ vs. 5 Republicans.
*Delaware: Rasmussen: Casle (R) +23 vs. Coons (D).
*Indiana: SurveyUSA - GOP Primary: Coats 36, Hostettler 24, Stutzman 18; General: Coats +16, Hostettler +13, Stutzman +6 vs. Ellsworth (D).
*Nevada: Rasmussen: Lowden (R) +13, Tarkanian (R) +10, Angle (R) +8 vs. Reid (D); DailyKos/R2000: Lowden +4, Tarkanian +2, Angle +3 vs. Reid.
*New Hampshire: UNH/Granite State: Ayotte (R) +15 vs. Hodes (D)
*North Carolina: SurveyUSA - Dem Primary: Marshall 23, Cunningham 19, Lewis 10; PPP - Dem Primary: Marshall 26, Cunningham 23, Lewis 7.
*Ohio: Quinnipiac - Dem Primary: Fisher +17 vs. Brunner ; General: Fisher +3, Brunner +4 vs. Portman (R).
*Washington: SurveyUSA: Rossi (R) +10 vs. Murray (D).
ARKANSAS: The Hotline reports on the ridiculous amount of outside money being spent in the state's bitter Democratic primary between Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.
ILLINOIS: It's now been one week since the Giannoulias family bank failed and was taken over by federal regulators, about which the campaign launched a 60-second TV ad. Though a meeting wasn't expected, Obama gave Alexi a shout-out during his speech in Quincy, and David Axelrod held a brief, private meeting with him. It seems the state and national party are so far standing behind him.
NORTH CAROLINA: CQ-Roll Call reported that Cal Cunningham and Elaine Marshall are likely headed for a runoff, as neither are expected to garner more than the 40% necessary to win the nomination in the May 4 Democratic primary.
PENNSYLVANIA: The primary is less than three weeks away, and Rep. Joe Sestak is on the air with a new TV ad featuring military veterans defending his service as a Navy admiral. The impetus for it was a recent ad from Sen. Arlen Specter criticizng Sestak's service. And by the way, this week marked the one year anniversary of Specter's switch to the Democratic Party.
UTAH: Sen. Bob Bennett is facing a historic loss at the May 8 state party convention if, as some speculate, he does not win enough support to make it onto the primary ballot.
GOVERNOR:
WEEK IN POLLS:
* Arizona: Rasmussen: Brewer (R) +8 vs. Goddard (D); PPP (D): Goddard +3 vs. Brewer, other matchups.
* Georgia: Rasmussen: Various matchups
* Illinois: Rasmussen: Brady (R) +7 vs. Quinn (D)
* Michigan: Rasmussen - GOP Primary: Hoekstra +6; EPIC-MRA - Dem Primary: Fieger +8
* Ohio: Quinnipiac: Strickland (D) +6 vs. Kasich (R)
* Oregon: Rasmussen: Various matchups
* Rhode Island: Rasmussen: Chafee (I) +11 vs. Lynch (D); tied with Caprio (D).
CALIFORNIA: The GOP ad war continues. Steve Poizner charges that Meg Whitman will mean more of the same policies under the GOP incumbent -- Arnold Schwarzenegger. Jerry Brown is defending the state's climate change law. While the Republicans spend away, Brown has an impact without opening his wallet.
COLORADO: GOP frontrunner Scott McInnis said he would sign a law similar to the new Arizona immigration statute. Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper has outraised McInnis two-to-one.
FLORIDA: Florida Democrats target Rick Scott (R) in a new Web video, showing their focus isn't solely on Bill McCollum (R).
MASSACHUSETTS: The RGA launched a campaign targeting independent candidate Tim Cahill, a former Democrat. Republican nominee Charlie Baker disavowed the national committee's attack. He also shook up his campaign team just after securing the nomination. The Globe picks apart Baker's fiscal credentials. Cahill continues to target the Democratic White House, criticizing a new wind farm.
MINNESOTA: Sarah Palin endorsed in the crowded Minnesota GOP field, picking state Rip. Tom Emmer. State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher won the DFL endorsement, but the primary is still ahead.
THE REST: Former Gov. Eliot Spitzer (D) has words about would-be Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D). Texas Gov. Rick Perry criticized the new Arizona law. The GOP field in Georgia slimmed as Ray Boyd announced an independent bid. The Democratic candidate in Utah may pick a Republican as his running mate.
HANDICAPPER WATCH
Cook Political Report:
* Florida Senate from Likely R to Toss Up
* Illinois Senate from Toss Up to Lean R
* IL-14 from Lean D to Toss Up
* MI-03 from Solid R to Likely R
* NJ-06 from Solid D to Likely D
* NM-01 from Likely D to Lean D
* PA-12 from Toss Up to Lean R
* RI-01 from Solid D to Likely D
Rothenberg Political Report:
* Florida Senate from Clear Advantage R to Narrow Advantage R
* New Hampshire Senate from Toss Up to Narrow Advantage R
RCP PROJECTIONS
Senate: GOP +8
Governor: GOP +5
House Map
--Mike Memoli and Kyle Trygstad