The Week Ahead: Crist's Independence Day
Charlie Crist has until this Friday to determine whether he will continue to run for the U.S. Senate as a Republican, continue pursuing his candidacy but as an independent, or to abandon the campaign entirely and focus on his duties as Florida's governor and begin to plot his political recovery. If history is any guide, we can expect he'll wait until just before that Friday deadline to make that decision. In the meantime, politicos in Florida and certainly across the country will continue to debate what his predicament means for Crist, for the Senate race, and for the Republican Party in general.
Heading into the week, reports seem to indicate Crist is leaning toward an independent run. Marco Rubio has built a lead that seems insurmountable given the governor's standing in his own party right now. Some longtime allies are reportedly warning him against abandoning the party he has built his career with, with one notion being that Crist himself once had such an intimidating lead, and that Rubio's warts are only beginning to come to light as the toast of the tea party movement has built his following.
White House: After a weekend of R-and-R in North Carolina with the first lady, President Obama has a busy week that includes a major road trip to the Midwest. Officially, the three-state swing is part of the "White House to Main Street" tour, and Obama's itinerary looks focused on the economy. On Tuesday, he'll tour a Seimens Energy plant in Iowa, before holding a town hall meeting in Ottumwa. On Wednesday, he heads to Missouri, where he'll tour a biorefining plant in Macon, and visit a local farm. He'll then speak in Quincy, Illinois.
Today, President Obama will speak at a summit on Entrepreneurship in Washington. He also honors the 2009 World Series champs, the New York Yankees (something Mike has been looking forward to since last November). Later this week, he honors the Teacher of the Year at the White House. This Saturday, he'll speak at the annual White House Correspondents Association Dinner -- DC's "Nerd Prom."
Vice President Biden seems to be taking the lead role for the administration on financial reform. He convenes a meeting of his Middle Class Task Force in Wisconsin on Tuesday with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner. On the political front, the VP's schedule includes a stop in Colorado for first-term Rep. Betsy Markey on Friday. Biden is skipping the Correspondents dinner to instead speak at a fundraising dinner for the Arizona Democratic Party Saturday night.
Capitol Hill:: Today is a big test for Senate Democrats' Wall Street Reform bill, as they need one Republican to join them in a vote to overcome a filibuster and begin formal debate. The two parties are still holding out hope for a bipartisan agreement, but Republican leaders predicted Sunday that Democrats would not get 60 votes today. If the bill does fail today, expect both parties to spin the result: As the Washington Post notes, "Democrats could say the GOP is standing in the way of reform, and Republicans could say the bill's flaws would cause the economy more harm than good." Meanwhile, in other legislative problems, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham said Saturday that he would no longer participate in bipartisan negotiations on a climate change bill because of Democrats' decision to push immigration reform first.
Politics: Two filing deadlines are on the calendar this week, both on Friday. The one that will dominate political conversation all week, as we noted earlier, is Florida's deadline to file for federal office. Gov. Charlie Crist seems more and more likely to file as an independent candidate rather than avoid a Republican primary he appears certain to lose at this point. The decision would make an already intriguing race jump to the top as one of the most fascinating of the 2010 cycle, a three way race pitting the beleaguered Crist against a rising conservative star (Marco Rubio) and a young, African American Democrat (Kendrick Meek). Of course, Crist could also drop out altogether, with some speculating he could run in 2012 against Bill Nelson.
Elsewhere, Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer's decision to sign a controversial illegal immigration measure has certainly pushed the subject back to the forefront of discussion. The Sunday shows began looking ahead to the potential impact on the midterms. The more immediate fallout is of course in Arizona, where Republicans have competitive primaries for both governor -- including Brewer -- and Senate, where John McCain's past support for comprehensive reform still lingers, despite his stated support for this law.
The other filing deadline this week is in Georgia, where a competitive race is shaping up to replace Gov. Sonny Perdue (R), with primaries on both sides up for grabs. Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) appears safe, but did draw a decent Democratic opponent in state labor commissioner Michael Thurmond (D).
**Poll Watch:
Obama Job Performance: Approve 48.1 / Disapprove 47.1 (+1.0)
Congress Job Performance: Approve 22.8 / Disapprove 71.2 (-48.4)
Generic Ballot Test: Republicans +3.2
**In Case You Missed It: "President Obama" talks Wall Street Reform on "Saturday Night Live":
--Mike Memoli and Kyle Trygstad