Immigration Reform's Unclear Path
While Democratic leaders ramp up for an effort to push immigration reform to the floor of the Senate, the general sense among Senate Republicans is that it has no chance for success, GOP aides tell RealClearPolitics. If it fell well short of passing in 2007 after extensive bipartisan work, how exactly will 60 senators come together in the next month on a bill that has yet to be written?
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's decision yesterday to back off from pushing immigration ahead of climate change reflected that.
On June 28, 2007, just 46 senators voted in favor of cloture on the comprehensive immigration bill, 14 shy of the 60 needed to overcome a filibuster. Among the 46 were 12 Republicans, including Arizona Sens. Jon Kyl and John McCain, and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham -- all of whom could now oppose a new bill.
Even though Graham was integrally involved in forming a new reform plan with Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), he was incensed at Reid's sudden decision last week to make immigration reform a priority over a climate change bill that Graham, Joe Lieberman (ID-Conn.) and John Kerry (D-Mass.) were set to roll out Monday.
Also, Democrats can no longer count on other GOP cross-over votes either: Nebraska's Chuck Hagel, who voted for the bill, is retired; and Utah Sen. Bob Bennett, another 2007 supporter, is stuck in a bitter re-election battle for his party's nomination. If he makes it through the May 8 state party convention and onto the June primary ballot with a more conservative challenger, a vote in favor of an immigration reform bill supported by Reid and the White House likely wouldn't help his chances.
In the vote three years ago, 16 Democrats voted against ending debate and sending the bill for a final vote. Among them were several freshmen who helped the party win back control of the Senate, as well as members across the left side of the political spectrum -- from Vermont's Bernie Sanders to Nebraska's Ben Nelson.
Because the odds appear against a bill passing the Senate this year, Reid is being criticized -- by Graham and others -- for using the effort simply for political gain. Latinos made up 15 percent of the 2008 Nevada electorate, and 76 percent of them voted for Barack Obama. Facing poor polling numbers, Reid could certainly use a boost from that influential voting bloc in 2010.
So could California Sen. Barbara Boxer and Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, who also have large percentages of Latino voters and are in for a challenging election season.
For its part, the Nevada Democratic Party supports Reid's push for immigration reform as soon as possible and says it's Republicans who are playing politics with the issue.
"Senator Reid has always been committed to comprehensive immigration reform - reform that secures both our borders and brings 12 million illegal immigrants out of the shadows," said state party spokeswoman Phoebe Sweet. "Republicans who would rather play partisan politics than work toward solutions do so to the determent of this country's national and economic security."