Dem Favored In First Election Since Health Care Vote
If it's Tuesday, someone somewhere is voting. Well, today that's in South Florida for a special election to replace a retired Democratic congressman and in Waco, Texas, where two Republicans are battling in a primary runoff for the nomination and chance to take on a potentially vulnerable Democratic incumbent.
Here's a look inside the two races:
Florida 19th Congressional District Special Election
Republican Ed Lynch hopes to win the first congressional election since the health care reform bill was signed into law last month. However, despite the bill's unpopularity nationwide, few expect a majority of Florida's 19th Congressional District voters to be swayed by his special election campaign that's centered on repealing the new health care reform law.
Lynch is running against Democrat Ted Deutch, who represents Palm Beach County in the state Senate and is heavily favored to retain the seat left vacant by the retirement of Democrat Robert Wexler. Through March 24, Deutch had spent nearly $1.2 million, more than 14 times as much as Lynch's $83,000.
This is not Lynch's first go at the district. Wexler defeated him in November 2008 by a 66 percent to 27 percent margin.
This Palm Beach- and Broward County-based district also gave President Obama a 66 percent win. It has one of the highest percentages of Jewish voters and ranks second in the number of Social Security recipients, according to the Almanac of American Politics.
The district gave John Kerry an identical percentage, while Al Gore and Joe Lieberman scored 73 percent of the vote in 2000.
Obama did better here than in Massachusetts, the bluest of blue states that surprisingly voted Republican Scott Brown into the late Edward Kennedy's Senate seat in January. That win galvanized Republicans nationwide, but the national GOP has lower expectations here.
Telling for how competitive both national parties think this district is: Neither the National Republican Congressional Committee or its Democratic counterpart spent much if any money here.
Texas Primary Runoff Elections
At one point in time, we expected a runoff election in the gubernatorial primary between Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison and Gov. Rick Perry. Instead, Perry won just over 50 percent in the initial March 2 vote, and the general election contest with former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) is already engaged. The only statewide runoff is a state Supreme Court race on the Republican side.
Downballot, there are Congressional nominations still up for grabs in seven of the state's 32 districts, all but one of them on the Republican side. Foremost among them is the Republican runoff in the 17th Congressional District, a seat now held by Rep. Chet Edwards (D). Businessman Bill Flores (R), recruited by the NRCC, led the initial vote with 34 percent. He faces runner-up Rob Curnock, the 2008 GOP nominee, who got 28 percent of the vote last month.
The major issue to emerge in the contest has been about Flores' voting record. A radio ad from the Curnock campaign tells voters that Flores, who only recently moved to the district, voted in the 2008 Democratic primary but not in the general election. Flores had claimed during a debate that he voted for Curnock in the 2008 general election, but later clarified that he didn't make it to the polls. Flores is closing with an ad featuring former Sen. Phil Gramm (R), which focuses on the general election fight against Edwards.
Serving his 10th term, Edwards is among the most vulnerable Democrats, representing a district that the Cook Political Report ranks as the 19th most Republican in the country. McCain won the district with 67 percent of the vote in 2008. The Cook Report currently ranks the race as lean Democrat. "In a year when all Democrats will be on the defensive and trying to separate themselves from the Democrat leadership, Edwards will have a tough time in the general election when he will be forced to defend his support for a toxic Democrat agenda that he supports 98 percent of the time," an NRCC memo claims.
There are also runoffs for Republicans in Texas 15 (held by Ruben Hinojosa), Texas 20 (Charlie Gonzalez), Texas 23 (Ciro Rodriguez), Texas 27 (Solomon Ortiz) and Texas 30 (Eddie Bernice Johnson). The only primary for Democrats is in Texas 14, where the winner will face Republican Ron Paul. All but one of those seats ranked as solid hold for the incumbent party by the Cook Report, with Texas 23 listed as likely Democratic.
Not surprisingly, turnout is expected to be very low. A spokesman for the Secretary of State's office told the Associated Press that early voting has been light.