Would Runoff Change Dynamic In Texas Race?
What was originally billed as a major Texas showdown has instead turned out to be a somewhat tepid Republican primary for governor. Gov. Rick Perry (R) appears headed for a plurality win in today's vote, with the only suspense in the air whether he can surpass the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff in six weeks.
Perry has never reached 50 percent in polls of what turned out to be a three-way race. But some observers speculated that the governor could do so tonight if enough votes break his way from the undecided column as well as from a fading Debra Medina, whose surge in the polls was cut short by her comments about the Sept. 11 attacks.
But if a runoff does occur, is there any reason to suspect Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison can find her way back? Her campaign, obviously, thinks so.
"She's going to stay on her message of taking the steps necessary to strengthen Texas. Rick Perry is going to be explaining why a majority of Republicans decided they did not want him back in office," said campaign spokesman Joe Pounder.
No incumbent governor has failed to be renominated since a little-known former Wasilla mayor named Sarah Palin defeated Alaska Gov. Frank Murkowski (R) in a three-way primary in 2006. Perry has had the support of Palin and other GOP heavyweights in this campaign, and polls have shown him strongest with the conservative voters more likely to vote in a primary. Turnout is believed to be higher than usual, however, and Hutchison has said if she's to win she'll need the support of "November Republican voters."
Turnout in a runoff tends to be much lighter, which would again seem to favor Perry. But a six-week overtime race could buy the Hutchison campaign more time to make their case against Perry one-on-one. Reports indicate she has scaled back some of her advertising of late to ensure she has funds to wage a runoff campaign.
One potential issue that could emerge in that could emerge is one of electability, something Hutchison has telegraphed somewhat of late. General election polls have shown she is a slightly stronger candidate against the likely Democratic nominee, former Houston Mayor Bill White (D). Pounder said electability would not necessarily be their focus in a runoff, but that "there's no doubt Kay Bailey Hutchison would be the better candidate."
Hutchison has signaled she is eager for a runoff campaign, but she may face heavy pressure to bow out even if Perry does not win outright, especially if he were to fall just shy of 50 percent. State law allows a runner up to not contest a runoff, if they so choose. Democrats, meanwhile, relish the idea of a continued GOP slugfest.
"That extra month gives Mayor White the opportunity to continue to raise money and get his message out while Republicans are fighting each other. And that sets us up pretty well," Gov. Jack Markell, chair of the Democratic Governors Association, told RCP last week. The organization recently donated $500,000 to White's campaign, a signal of their confidence in the potential for what would be a surprising Democratic pickup this fall.
The Republican Governors Association, officially neutral in the race (though chairman Haley Barbour endorsed Perry), declined to say whether it would play a role in targeting White should Republicans still be sparring with each other. RGA spokesman Tim Murtaugh said the race is so early in the calendar year that whoever the nominee is, he or she will have plenty of time to make a general election case. But as it showed in the New Jersey race last fall, the organization is willing to play a significant role defining the opposition when their candidates are unable to do so.