The Politics Of Unemployment
The release of the monthly unemployment report has spawned something of a ritual of late in Washington. Within minutes of the number being made public, statements come from Republicans and Democrats alike. White House advisers then offer their spin, followed by an on-camera statement from the president himself. All of this is done with an eye toward November, knowing that the state of the economy is bound to be a top concern.
The release of state-by-state data has been considerably less choreographed. In fact, the Bureau of Labor Statistics issued the latest 50-state results Wednesday to little fanfare. But for state leaders, especially those looking for new terms in November, the numbers are just as vital for their political fortunes. And a close look at the data in many cases explains the political peril some governors are in.
Overall, 30 states saw unemployment rate increases from December to January, compared to just nine states that saw decreases. Very few changed by more than a few tenths of a percent in either direction. But in all 50 states, the number of unemployed workers was higher in January 2010 than it was in January 2009.
Just as most believe President Obama's popularity is tied to a large extent by the economic outlook, there's a clear correlation between governors' approval ratings and their state's unemployment rates. Using public polling available recently in 33 of the 50 states, we note the following trends:
- The average unemployment rate of governors with a 50 percent or higher approval rating is 7.4, compared to 9.5 for governors under the 50 percent mark.
- In the nine states were governors had approval ratings higher than 60 percent, the average unemployment rate was 6.9 percent. In the 10 states where governors' approval ratings were lower than 40 percent, the average unemployment rate was 10.6 percent.
- Of the states with unemployment rates of 7 percent or less, all but one governor had an approval rating above 50.
There are, of course, some outliers, and in several cases other factors are at play to explain a governor's political weakness. For instance, Iowa's unemployment rate is among the lowest in the nation, and yet Gov. Chet Culver (D) had an approval rating of just 41 percent in a February Rasmussen poll.
But in most other cases, the unemployment rate tends to be a good indicator of a governor's fortune. Three other Democratic governors are seeking re-election in states that have unemployment rates below 8 percent, and all three have approval ratings over 50 percent. Republican Dave Heineman is one of the safest incumbents this fall, and sure enough, Nebraska's unemployment rate is second-lowest in the country.
Only three governors are seeking re-election in states where the unemployment rate is 10 percent or higher, and all three have tough races -- Nevada's Jim Gibbons (13 percent), Illinois Pat Quinn (11.3 percent) and Ohio's Ted Strickland (10.8 percent). All three saw significant increases in their state's unemployment rates over a one-year span. Without a turnaround before they face voters, they might find themselves the latest looking for work.