Race For Illinois Governor Unsettled
Given a mandate in the last elections, Democrats and their top official face an uncertain future. Republicans are divided despite what should be a favorable political environment for the party. Sound familiar? That's the situation both parties find themselves in as Illinois voters head to the polls to choose nominees for U.S. Senate and a slate of statewide offices.
The governor's race in particular has several parallels to the national landscape. Republicans had controlled the governor's office for more than two decades, but saw their hold on state government wiped away in the last decade, because of scandal and the growing strength of Democrats in suburban areas. Democrats now control both chambers of the legislature and, since 2006 when Rod Blagojevich led the ticket, hold every statewide constitutional office.
But Blagojevich's ouster has left both parties with an unsettled environment. Gov. Pat Quinn (D), like many of his fellow governors and the new administration in Washington, has faced a series of unwelcome decisions in a tough economy and a complicated political environment. Polls have shown a tightening race against state Comptroller Dan Hynes (D), and the contest has taken a decidedly negative turn in the final days.
Despite what should be a ripe environment for the party, the GOP race remains a free-for-all. Andy McKenna, who presided over the 2006 GOP rout as state party chairman, held a one-point lead in the final Chicago Tribune poll. State Sen. Kirk Dillard held a lead in a Public Policy Polling survey, but has faced harsh attacks from rivals over his appearance in campaign ads for Barack Obama's presidential bid. Adam Andrzejewski is showing a late surge in support, with a recent endorsement from Solidarity leader Lech Walesa and some conservative activists. Jim Ryan, the former attorney general and 2002 gubernatorial nominee, is also in the mix.
Even with the Blagojevich circus not far behind in the rear view mirror, it's the economy and not ethics that have been paramount in the race. The state's unemployment rate tops 10 percent. Just as the federal deficit projections grow, Illinois faces its own steep shortfall. Quinn at one point proposed a 50 percent increase in the state income tax to close that gap, but pulled back in the face of overwhelming opposition from a legislature where his party has a veto-proof majority. Quinn's decision to release state inmates to save money became fodder for a harsh TV ad from Hynes. But this weekend, Quinn had his own tough attack on Hynes over the disinterring of bodies at Burr Oak Cemetery.
The Republican fight has been a battle of electability, as well as a test of conservatism. Dillard has disavowed his 2008 support for Obama's candidacy, but that hasn't stopped his rivals from continuing to make an issue of it. McKenna flagged it in this TV ad. The president even made note of this in Friday's Q&A with House Republicans. "They're running ads of him saying nice things about me. Poor guy," he said.
Coming so soon in the 2010 cycle, turnout is an open question in the race. The early contest is a vestige of the 2008 primary jockeying, as Illinois sought to move up in the calendar to boost its home state candidate. Now, the state may provide yet another indicator of the environment that now-president is working in.