New York Republicans Await Gillibrand Challenger
For all the talk of a strong recruiting class and the possible Republican takeover of the U.S. Senate this year, one state sticks out as a potential lost opportunity -- New York.
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, appointed just more than a year ago from her moderate House district upstate, is still unknown to a large portion of the electorate while facing low favorable and approval ratings among the rest. Yet no top-tier Republican candidate has stepped forward to challenge her.
Even in New York, where the party has long been down and out, Republicans appear in a position to pick up a seat, especially in the wake of a special Senate election win in Massachusetts. However, so far Gillibrand has had far more to worry about in her own party, as several Democratic House members considered challenging her, and former Tennessee Rep. Harold Ford Jr. is currently weighing a bid.
Rudy Giuliani and Republican Rep. Peter King declined to run, leaving former Gov. George Pataki as seemingly the party's best hope. Polls show Pataki continuing to lead Gillibrand in hypothetical general election matchups, though few expect him to run.
"He hasn't closed the door," said one national party official. "But he's a long-shot."
Republicans in the state say that evidence of a shifting electorate came later to New York than the rest of the country, causing candidates to not begin planning a race until late last year and even into this year. But several people are now considering bids.
"We're in a situation in which there are good people out there in the field right now laying a foundation for a campaign," said one state party official. "We have two declared candidates now and expect there will be possibly two or three others to enter the race in the coming weeks."
The two in the race so far are economist David Malpass, who advised Giuliani's 2008 presidential bid, and attorney Bruce Blakeman, the GOP's nominee for state comptroller in 1998. Both are making the rounds with county chairs to pick up support before the June nominating convention.
Blakeman, who announced last month, has a fundraiser scheduled this week at the Capitol Hill headquarters of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which lends its space to Senate candidates from around the country.
Other names being floated include Orange County Executive Ed Diana and former Rep. Joe DioGuardi, who's been out of Congress for more than 20 years and is now known as the father of an "American Idol" judge.
"There are a number of other folks who have expressed interest but aren't ready to put their names out there yet," said the New York GOP official. "Either way, it's going to be a pretty robust field and an aggressive campaign."
Former Rep. Rick Lazio was asked by some to consider switching from the gubernatorial race -- where he's likely to face a formidable opponent in Attorney General Andrew Cuomo -- to the Senate race, which most believe the party would have a better chance of winning. His name continues be floated as a possibility for the race despite the Lazio campaign's insistence that there's no chance of that.
"Under no circumstances will Rick Lazio be a candidate for U.S. Senate. He's not looking for a job. He's running because New York is in trouble and needs a fundamental overhaul," Lazio spokesman Barney Keller told RealClearPolitics.
Meanwhile, as the GOP searches for its candidate, the party has the luxury of watching as Gillibrand and Ford battle each other in the press on a daily basis. However, some Democrats posit that Gillibrand's statewide profile has actually increased and grown more positive since Ford's quasi-entrance, leaving the GOP with a tougher challenge than it had two months ago.
And Gillibrand is just one of two Democratic senators running in New York this year. Republicans also need to field a candidate against Sen. Charles Schumer.