Indiana Makes Senate Winnable For GOP
For a Democrat running in a Republican-leaning state in 2010, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh was in relatively good shape when he announced his retirement Monday afternoon. He had $13 million in the bank and a substantial lead in both public surveys and polling conducted by his campaign. Yet the second-term senator is stepping away from elected office for the first time in 24 years and becomes the fifth sitting Democratic senator not to run this year.
The news surprised both local and national Democrats, most of who only learned hours before -- some even after -- the news leaked out. He had completed the necessary paperwork to get on the ballot, and had recently polled the race. Still, a White House official with ties to Bayh said he had talked about the possibility of retiring "for years" and believed the decision truly had nothing to do with the increasingly perilous political environment.
Bayh said as much at a news conference Monday afternoon in Indianapolis.
"My decision was not motivated by a political concern," he said. "Even in the current challenging political environment, I am confident in my prospects for re-election."
Bayh's retirement instantly puts Indiana on a growing list of pick-up opportunities for the GOP this year. President Obama and Vice President Biden could see their former Senate seats in Illinois and Delaware go red, while Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.) is one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country.
North Dakota Sen. Byron Dorgan is retiring and his seat is considered the GOP's for the taking, while Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter, Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet and Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln are in bad shape as well. Throw in the longer shot chances of scoring two upsets in the blue state trio of California, Wisconsin, and Washington, and Republicans can now visualize a path - albeit still a very difficult one - to recapturing a 51-49 majority in the upper chamber.
"The Indiana Senate seat is one that we will fight to hold onto," said Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Robert Menendez (N.J.). "We will have a strong Democratic candidate on the ballot there."
Although President Obama won Indiana in 2008, the margin was just a single percentage point and the state is still considered favorable for the GOP. The process of replacing Bayh on the ballot is complicated by the fact that candidacy petitions, which must include at least 500 signatures from each of the nine congressional districts, are due today. Without Bayh or any other Democrat turning in a petition, the state party will be able to name its nominee without the need for a costly and perhaps damaging primary.
Democrats floated the names of Reps. Brad Ellsworth and Baron Hill as potential replacements for Bayh. Both have moderate voting records and hail from districts won by both John McCain and George W. Bush, which bodes well for them in a statewide race.
However, a look at their current House campaigns shows how much work is ahead for Democrats as they attempt to build a well-organized, competitive statewide campaign in Bayh's absence. Ellsworth currently has one person working for his re-election campaign, while the phone number listed on Hill's campaign web site is no longer accurate.
The fact that Democrats can choose their nominee, rather than see an open primary, is the one positive element the party points to in an otherwise unwelcome surprise. Hill had not responded to speculation Monday - he was on an overseas trip. But Ellsworth issued a statement leaving the door open to a Senate bid.
"The next step will be taking a few days to talk to my wife and to folks in Indiana about where I can best serve our state," he said. "In the meanwhile, I will continue to travel throughout the 8th District this week listening to Hoosiers about the challenges they face and their ideas for getting our economy back on track."
Some in the party have also suggested local officeholders, arguing it might be better for the party to run a Washington outsider. Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel was one such possibility, but he issued a statement saying he was "not interested in pursuing this opportunity." Former Gov. Joe Kernan also said no.
The only way Democrats' situation could get more tenuous is if an unknown restaurant owner, Tamyra d'Ippolito, manages to file enough signatures by the noon deadline today. Speaking to RCP Monday, d'Ippolito said she was struggling to collect the required number of signatures from each district. Her campaign manager said the chances of the campaign doing so was "slim to none." But some liberal and conservative Web sites were boosting her profile in the hopes of spoiling Democrats' Plan B.
The leading Republican is former Senator Dan Coats, whom Democrats have been hammering for living outside of Indiana since leaving the Senate in 1998 and working as a lobbyist. Rep. Mike Pence, the third-ranking Republican in the House, said last month he would not seek the seat. Although he reportedly began to rethink his decision yesterday, today's petition deadline would make that difficult.
Menendez called it "a weakened Republican field" with Coats, "whose baggage is now hardly a secret." But the National Republican Senatorial Committee maintains the seat was competitive before Bayh's exit.
"The moment Evan Bayh abandoned the views and values of his constituents by voting for the boondoggle stimulus and the President's government run health care bill, this became a very competitive Senate race," said NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh. "His retirement only strengthens this opportunity for Republicans in November."
--Kyle Trygstad and Mike Memoli