In New York, Lazio Sees Brown As Model For Success
The special election in Massachusetts hasn't even happened yet, and the result is still very much up in the air. But already, the campaign of Scott Brown is already being cited by fellow Republicans as an example of how the party can have success in 2010, particularly in blue states.
Rick Lazio, running for governor in New York this year, cited Brown's effort as more proof of a strong shift in the public mood that he predicts will crest this fall against the Democratic Party.
"I think what it says is that in a state that is more Democratic than New York, that independents and Democrats are willing to take a look at somebody who is going to reflect some of what they're worried about," Lazio said in an interview with RCP in Washington Thursday. "I think it's very powerful. And talking about a state like Massachusetts, with the legacy of that seat, it's impossible to discount the power of where this guy is polling right now."
Lazio, a former Congressman from Long Island, also cites the result of elections in November in New Jersey and suburban New York counties, where Republicans were elected in Democratic-majority jurisdictions, some of which were considered major upsets. That, and the lessons he's learned since his failed 2000 Senate campaign against Hillary Clinton, give Lazio confidence that he can overcome a steep deficit in the early polling and take back Albany for the GOP.
"Who would have thought Scott Brown would have been competitive?" he said. "And I think that in terms of experience, political positioning in terms of my politics, my experience and background, the experience of our campaign team, the state of the economy in New York, I think we're in infinitely stronger position than Scott Brown found himself in a month ago."
In the interview, Lazio also reaffirmed his commitment to the gubernatorial race, confirming a report in the New York Post earlier this week that some New York Republicans had approached him about running instead for the U.S. Senate to challenge appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand.
"I think I could win the Senate race," he said. "But I told them, I don't think that's where the greatest need is, and I'm not looking for a job. I'm totally committed to the race for governor."
He conceded the challenge of running in a situation where it's unclear who is opponent will be, while stating that he's increasingly convinced that a primary will occur on the Democratic side. Gov. David Paterson (D) seems to have been strengthened by failed efforts from the White House to nudge him out of the race in favor of Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Lazio argued.
"It's going to be a very divisive, difficult primary for both of them. And my guess is there will be a lot of disaffected people in the end," he said. " The job of our campaign is to be prepared to appeal to those disaffected people, and to continue to stay on message and be seen as the person who is going to be the turnaround guy in New York."
He had especially tough words for Cuomo, whose political strength he said has been overestimated.
"When you get on the campaign trail you've got to take positions," he said. "Andrew Cuomo has run exactly one successful race, running in 2006 behind Eliot Spitzer who was winning by 40 points. I think he's brittle politically, and his profile is exactly what people are not looking for -- somebody who is intensely politically ambitious. Maybe in a normal year that wouldn't be a big factor. But when people know there are tough decisions that may be politically damaging, that's not a compelling profile."
Cuomo has also been "at the center of Democratic politics in Albany in a year when people are going to reject Albany in droves," he said. And the fact that Cuomo has remained "on the sidelines" at a time state government was lacking a real leader would ultimately hurt his standing with voters.
"Andrew Cuomo has a big lead right now, but so did Martha Coakley," Lazio said.
Expect to hear a similar sentiment from other Republicans this year.