Strategy Memo: Election Remains Edition
Republicans swept the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia yesterday, while Democrats picked up another House seat with the special election in New York's 23rd District. The GOP wins continues the decades-long streak of the party in power in the White House losing the following gubernatorial elections in both states.
As pundits debate what last night's elections mean for the future of his administration, President Obama will leave the Beltway bubble and travel to Wisconsin for an event focused on education. On the anniversary of his election, Obama also participates in a credentialing ceremony for foreign ambassadors, and tonight will host an event celebrating classical music back at the White House.
In Congress, the House takes up the Expedited CARD Reform for Consumers Act of 2009, while the Senate resumes consideration of the Unemployment Compensation Extension Act of 2009.
**National Political Climate
*Gallup: "The 2010 election cycle begins in a political climate that is shaping up to be not as favorable to the Democratic Party as the 2006 and 2008 elections were. Having capitalized on broad public discontent with the course of the nation in general and the Republican Party in particular to win control of the White House and both houses of Congress, the party faces the 2010 midterm elections trying to preserve its recent gains."
*Washington Times: "Top Democrats predicted that the backlash against the Republican Party in a New York congressional election Tuesday marked the start of a wave that will continue in key 2010 Senate races, saying they think independent voters will abandon a divided Republican Party."
*Politico: "The off-year elections were, in two big races, an unmistakable rebuke of Democrats, reshuffling Obama's political circumstances in ways likely to have severe near-term consequences for his policy agenda and larger governing strategy."
*The Hill: "Vulnerable House and Senate Democrats want their leaders to skip the party's controversial legislative agenda for next year to help save their seats in Congress. In the run-up to the 2010 midterm elections, they don't want to be forced to vote on climate change, immigration reform and gays in the military, which they say should be set aside so Congress can focus on jobs and the economy."
*New York Times: "The Republican victories in the races for New Jersey and Virginia governors put the party in a stronger position to turn back the political wave President Obama unleashed last year, setting the stage for Republicans to raise money, recruit candidates and ride the excitement of an energized base as the party heads into next year's midterm elections. But a Democratic victory in an upstate New York Congressional district ... signaled that the Republican Party faces continued upheaval."
*AP: "Voters nervous about the economy and fed up with the political establishment dominated the off-year elections, sending a strong message to President Barack Obama, who won the White House as a change agent but has himself become the face of political power and incumbency."
*"By seizing gubernatorial seats in Virginia and New Jersey, Republicans on Tuesday dispelled any notion of President Obama's electoral invincibility, giving the GOP a lift and offering warning signs to Democrats ahead of the 2010 midterm elections," the L.A. Times reports.
*ABC's look at the exits: "Vast economic discontent marked the mood of Tuesday's off-year voters, portending potential trouble for incumbents generally and Democrats in particular in 2010. Still the gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey looked less like a referendum on Barack Obama than a reflection of their own candidates and issues."
*For the record, Obama was not watching the results anyway. So there.
**New Jersey Governor: Christie (R) 49 - Corzine (D) 45
*The Star Ledger reports, "Corzine becomes just the third New Jersey governor in the past 60 years to go down after a single term in office. Veteran legislators who have worked with Corzine -- both in public and behind closed doors -- point to a number of reasons for his defeat, but they say none looms larger than the Democratic governor's struggles to deliver on his signature issues: reining in taxes and firming up the state's shaky finances."
*The Bergen Record: "More than 20 key players interviewed in both campaigns said regardless of Corzine's wealth and a strong Democratic endgame strategy, Christie was always favored to win a race defined by a weak economy, high property taxes and troubling unemployment."
*Independent Chris Daggett, thought to be a potential spoiler, said this of his showing: "What we found was the most important thing is you have to have money. What I fear is if you're not independently wealthy, you might not have a chance."
*AP notes a somewhat surprising result in the exit polls: Christie "won decisively among independent women, a key group that Corzine's campaign courted with gusto, harping on Christie's opposition to abortion rights in most cases and his support of allowing low-cost insurance plans for some."
*Corzine lost the base? Sierra Club chief tells PolitickerNJ: "Jon Corzine wasn't true to his base and he lost. Groups like the environmentalists are angry at him... so many other progressives and liberal Democrats stayed home."
**Virginia Governor McDonnell (R) 59 - Deeds (D) 41
*Richmond Times-Dispatch: "A year after tipping Democratic for president for the first time since 1964, Virginia fell to Republicans in a dramatic statewide sweep that is a historic reminder of its enduring competitiveness -- but may not be a model for a national GOP comeback."
*Politics Daily: "Republicans who are looking for a model would do well to look to McDonnell. He is unabashedly conservative, yet focused his race on issues such as transportation and the economy - issues that most Virginia voters would tell you are near and dear to them these days. It doesn't hurt that he's so telegenic or that he ran a smooth as butter campaign."
*Virginian-Pilot: "A staunch conservative on many issues, McDonnell's successful campaign strategy emphasized kitchen table concerns rather than social ideology. His message of restoring economic prosperity and creating jobs appeared to resonate with voters worried about the recession and national policies coming out of Washington."
*Kyle's take from Richmond: "A social conservative who successfully ran on bread and butter pocketbook issues, McDonnell racked up huge victories in the key exurban counties of Loudoun and Prince William, which Gov. Tim Kaine carried in 2005 and President Obama won just a year ago. He also carried Fairfax County, which Obama won by 21 points. ... While Deeds's inability to continue the blue streak is official, the reasons for it vary. Many political observers blame the Deeds campaign for being inept and lacking discipline, while also recognizing an unmistakable shift in the national mood from a year ago."
**New York-23 special election Owens (D) 49 - Hoffman (C) 45
*Watertown Daily Times: "For the first time since the mid-19th century, a Democrat will represent Northern New York in the U.S. House of Representatives. William L. Owens, the Democratic and Working Families candidate for the 23rd Congressional District special election, won a tight race Tuesday night."
*"Democrat Bill Owens has won the special election in New York's 23rd district, giving Democrats a big House takeover in a race that garnered plenty of national attention," The Hill reports. Doug "Hoffman appeared to have the momentum going into Election Day in the upstate district, but the de facto Republican nominee appeared to succumb to the Democratic turnout machine and a late visit from Vice President Joe Biden."
*Washington Post: Owens's "triumph came after a bizarre weekend in which the Republican nominee, state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, dropped out on the eve of the election and endorsed Owens. Her decision came after a slew of prominent Republicans had backed Hoffman and distanced themselves from her, dooming her chances."
--Kyle Trygstad and Mike Memoli



