Strategy Memo: E-Day 2009
Today is Election Day, and voters are voting as you read this. The major contests to watch are the Congressional race in New York-23, and the down-to-the-wire gubernatorial race in New Jersey. The race in Virginia looks much sleepier, with a likely Republican win. There are also some big races for mayor among the downballot contests nationwide.
In Washington, meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel visits. She'll meet with President Obama at the White House before heading to Congress to speak to a joint session. Also at the White House, Obama meets with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, and later joins a U.S.-European Union Summit with the Prime Minister of Sweden Fredrik Reinfeldt, President of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso, and the European Council High Representative Javier Solana. He'll also sit down with Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), a key vote on health care.
Merkel's address to Congress is at 10:30 am. Outside of that event, the focus on the Hill remains health care, as Democratic House leaders are hoping for a vote on their bill by the end of the week.
**President Obama
*A CNN/Opinion Research poll one year after his election puts President Obama's approval rating at 54 percent. "Obama's approval rating of 54 percent is nearly identical to the 53 percent of the vote he won a year ago," notes CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "And in nearly every demographic category, the percent that approve of Obama today is within two to three points of the percent who voted for him in 2008."
*New York Times' Zeleny goes back to Iowa and finds misgivings about a president whose path to victory started there. "For Democrats, the immediate peril of failing to hang on to some of these swing voters could play out Tuesday in the governor's race in Virginia, a state Mr. Obama wrested away from Republicans last year but where the Democratic candidate for governor has struggled to recreate Mr. Obama's enthusiastic coalition."
*Ed Henry interviewed Vice President Biden. On his tendency to go off script: "There's a big difference between me giving the president my advice and having direct access to him on every major issue ... and me going out with a policy that is separate and apart from other people in the administration, which you saw with Cheney," Biden said.
*AP: "The president has spent a considerable amount of time and energy trying to ensure that Democrats win governor's races in Virginia and New Jersey and pick up a GOP-held congressional seat in upstate New York. In doing so, Obama raised the stakes of a low-enthusiasm off-year election season -- and risked political embarrassment if any lost."
*Washington Times: "The White House is beginning to send strong signals that it recognizes the $1.4 trillion budget deficit is a looming political problem that needs to be addressed, even as President Obama reminds Americans that the country's fiscal crisis originated with the Bush administration and will not be resolved overnight."
**Health Care
*"While House leaders are moving toward a vote on health-care legislation by the end of the week, enough Democrats are threatening to oppose the measure over the issue of abortion to create a question about its passage," Washington Post reports.
*The House bill "is much tougher on the drug industry than what the Senate is considering. And that could prove one of the challenges for lawmakers when the legislation eventually reaches a House-Senate conference committee," New York Times reports.
*"Sen. Joe Lieberman has reached a private understanding with Majority Leader Harry Reid that he will not block a final vote on healthcare reform, according to two sources briefed on the matter," The Hill reports.
**Congress
*All seven members of Congress who are currently the subjects of a "full-scale ethics committee probe" are African American, Politico reports. "...members of the Congressional Black Caucus are wary of talking about it on the record. But privately, some black members are outraged -- and see in the numbers a worrisome trend in the actions of ethics watchdogs on and off Capitol Hill."
*"Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) said Monday she will not be intimidated by GOP boycott threats and vowed to begin marking up her climate change legislation Tuesday regardless of whether Republicans show up at the Environment and Public Works Committee session," Roll Call reports.
**Campaign Stuff
*AP runs down exactly what's on the ballot nationwide. Chuck Todd offers this pre-spin: "It isn't about whether or not Tuesday's elections matter. Tuesday is about which party learns the messages voters are sending. And which party over-interprets or under-interprets those messages."
*It was Biden vs. Palin again on the campaign trail yesterday.
*CBS has an excerpt from the first of several books documenting Sarah Palin's time on the campaign trail.
*Republicans have a primary in the Florida gubernatorial race afterall, with state Sen. Paula Dockery entering the race, the Miami Herald reports. Bill McCollum had thought to have a clear path.
*Speaking of Florida primaries, check out Marco Rubio's new fundraising site.
*Politico: "The conservative coup in upstate New York did much more than lay bare the power of conservative activists: It exposed how little control GOP officials hold over this surging and formidable political movement."
--Mike Memoli and Kyle Trygstad