Republicans argue that Tuesday's election results were enough to make some Democratic lawmakers - especially moderates from districts that lean Republican -nervous about their re-election viability, and in turn, cause them to think twice before voting to enact comprehensive health care reform.

But one of the Democrats who fits that description, Rep. Gerry Connolly of Virginia's 11th Congressional District, told RCP in an interview that using the gubernatorial results on Tuesday to determine vulnerability in the 2010 midterm elections makes no sense, and that he's not reading much into them.

"Prudence dictates you don't overanalyze one election," Connolly told RealClearPolitics.

However, none of the four Democrats in Virginia whose congressional districts were won by the Republican gubernatorial nominee have said which way they will vote tomorrow night. While all four are on record professing skepticism of the House reform bill well before Tuesday, any 'No' votes will likely be construed as a political decision.

Calling his colleagues "principled individuals," Connolly says "they're not going to be somehow spooked by one election cycle."

Wednesday morning, the National Republican Congressional Committee singled out the four Virginia Dems who could be feeling the heat after Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell (R) won their districts -- Reps. Rick Boucher, Glenn Nye, Tom Perriello and Connolly. The latter three are freshmen serving in districts long held by Republicans, and John McCain's largest vote percentage came in the 14-term Boucher's 9th District.

"Turn the clock back," said Connolly, referring to Virginia Democrats' success at the House, Senate and presidential level in 2008. "If I had said Bob McDonnell was in trouble a year ago, how would my comment look now?"

"Everything ultimately hinges on the economy" improving, he said. "We've got a whole year for that to happen."

Of the four, Connolly may have the least to worry about, even though his Northern Virginia district was represented by Republican Tom Davis for 14 of its 17-year existence. With Davis retiring last year, Connolly won 55 percent against businessman Keith Fimian; President Obama won 57 percent there -- his third largest percentage in the state.

McDonnell's 55 percent take in the 11th District Tuesday was his smallest of the four Democratic districts he won. Fimian, who outspent Connolly last year, is taking on the congressman again in 2010.

Republicans, including Republican Governors Association Chairman Haley Barbour, quickly began comparing this year's gubernatorial results in New Jersey and Virginia to 1993, when Republicans also swept the two elections and went on to win back Congress the following year.

Connolly says that to ensure nothing like that happens again, Democrats need to "prove we can govern. That's why passing health care reform is so important."

According to his spokesman, as of this afternoon Connolly is leaning toward voting for the health care reform bill that will likely come up for a vote Saturday night, but so far he's alone in that category. Jessica Barba, Perriello's spokesman, told RCP this afternoon that the congressman is still undecided, while spokesman Clark Pettig confirms Nye has not yet announced his decision. Boucher did not return a request for comment.