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« Countdown '09: New Jersey and Virginia (33 Days) | Blog Home Page | Pelosi: If Grayson Apologizes, So Should Republicans »

Republican Leads In New York Special

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The first independent poll in the special election in New York's 23rd Congressional District shows Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava with an early lead over Democratic businessman Bill Owens, with Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman in third.

Special Election Matchup
Scozzafava 35
Owens 28
Hoffman 16
Don't Know 21

That lead in the Siena Research survey can be attributable to her name advantage recognition. She's the only candidate known by more than half of the electorate, with Owens familiar to just over a third and Hoffman unknown to 70 percent of voters.

Favorable Ratings
Scozzafava 33 / 20
Owens 23 / 12
Hoffman 16 / 13

A key dynamic in the race will also be the role of the third-party conservative candidate. Scozzafava has support of 47 percent of Republicans at this early stage, compared to 22 percent for Hoffman. But the Club for Growth and some other conservative groups have come out early for Hoffman. Another potential factor is Owens' money -- 34 percent say they have seen or heard his advertisements, and 32 percent say it makes them more likely to support him.

Voters say the most important issue they want their new member of Congress to address is the economy (34 percent), followed closely by health care (30 percent).

Thirty-two percent of voters say President Obama's support would make them more likely to support a candidate, while 24 percent say it's less likely. Obama weighed in late on behalf of Scott Murphy; his favorable rating in the district is 55 percent. Speaker Nancy Pelosi polls worse, with only a 33 percent favorable number; Gov. David Paterson has a 31 percent favorable rating.

The survey of 622 registered voters was conducted from September 27-29, and had a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percent.

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