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« Countdown '09: New Jersey and Virginia (13 Days) | Blog Home Page | Obama For Christie? »

Rasmussen: New Jersey A True Toss-Up

In its latest survey of the New Jersey governor race, Rasmussen finds that the race has closed to just two points, and that independent Chris Daggett's supporters are increasingly committed to the candidate.

General Election Matchup
Christie 41 (-4 from last poll, 10/14)
Corzine 39 (-2)
Daggett 11 (+2)
Not Sure 8 (+3)

Christie leads by just 0.4 percent in the RCP polling average of New Jersey.

The biggest climber since last week's survey are those undecided voters. Rasmussen says that in that group, 13 percent lean toward Daggett, 7 percent toward Christie, and 3 percent toward Corzine, with the rest likely not to vote at all. The bottom line:

At this point, anybody who says with confidence how this race will turn out is either deluding themselves or attempting to delude someone else. The Democrats clearly have an edge in New Jersey when it comes to turnout, but the wavering Daggett supporters and undecided voters are more likely to head in the Republican direction than to the Democratic incumbent.

With two weeks out, only six points separates the three candidates in terms of favorable ratings.

Favorable Ratings
Christie 47 / 47
Corzine 41 / 57
Daggett 44 / 32

President Obama, who campaigns with Corzine today, has a 53 percent approval rating in the Garden State, a drop of 4 points since last week. That's still 12 points higher than Corzine's, however, at 41 percent; 58 percent disapprove.

The automated telephone survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 19 and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.