"With six weeks to go until the primary, the Democratic nomination is Martha Coakley's to lose," says Tim Vercellotti, professor and polling co-director at Western New England College.

That's where things stand in the race to replace the late Ted Kennedy, at least according to all the polls, including one out today from WNEC. Coakley holds a 23-point lead on her next-closest Democratic opponent in the December primary (Oct. 18-22, 393 RV, MoE +/- 5%), and leads the likely GOP nominee in the January special election by 26 points (342 LV, MoE +/- 5%).

Dem Primary
Martha Coakley 37%
Steve Pagliuca 14%
Mike Capuano 13%
Alan Khazei 4%
Someone else 3%
Undecided 26%

General Election
Marth Coakley 58%
Scott Brown 32%
Undecided 9%

Michael Capuano 49%
Scott Brown 33%
Undecided 14%

"Voters may not be paying much attention to the race at this point," said Vercellotti. "With municipal elections on the ballot for November 3, voters may be distracted, which will make for an even more compressed election cycle for the Senate candidates once local elections are over."