Strategy Memo: The Fall Campaign
Good morning, Washington. With Labor Day now in the rear view mirror, it's good bye to the summer and back to work in the nation's capital. President Obama has a busy day, starting with what became a controversial speech to students at Wakefield High School in Arlington, Va. The White House posted his planned remarks in response to complaints that he was bringing politics into the classroom. After the event, Obama will head to the Supreme Court to attend an investiture ceremony in honor of Sonia Sotomayor.
Then, it's back to the White House, where he'll meet with House Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Harry Reid. The meeting will of course focus on health care, with the president heading to Capitol Hill Wednesday in a speech that aides promise will give greater detail to his vision of health care. The official schedule ends with a meeting with PGA champions.
The House and Senate will gavel back into session today after a long August recess filled with temperamental town halls and dipping presidential approval ratings. A new Gallup survey finds that Americans "are no less divided on health care reform today than they were a month ago" -- not exactly the welcome home sign Democrats had hoped for when they left Capitol Hill five weeks ago.
Labor Day also marks the traditional kickoff of the fall campaign. Yesterday, the candidates for governor in both New Jersey and Virginia spent their day darting from street fairs to parades to house parties. Though Democrats in each race are increasingly optimistic about their chances because of August controversies involving the Republicans, it's still an uphill fight. The RCP Average has Bob McDonnell leading by 10.2 in Virginia, and Chris Christie ahead by 6.5 in New Jersey.
**Health Care Speeches
*Over the weekend, two interesting headlines in the two major papers. Washington Post: "The Change Agenda At a Crossroads:
From Health Care to Wars to Public Anxiety, Obama's Strength as a Leader Is Tested." From the New York Times: "Obama Faces a Critical Moment for His Presidency."
*Top White House aides say Obama's "fiery Labor Day speech to an organized-labor crowd in Ohio was a preview of a more passionate case for reform that's coming later this week," CNN says. "After advisers last week submitted various thoughts on what the speech should say, Obama spent much of the weekend at Camp David crafting the actual address, which currently is running about 37 minutes in draft form."
*Time reports, "Upon returning from a late August vacation on Martha's Vineyard, several of Obama's senior aides advised that he delay a new push for health care reform until the third week in September, after the anniversaries of Sept. 11 and the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers. But according to a senior aide, Obama overruled them."
*The Wall Street Journal has more of a preview: "Obama is expected to reiterate his support for creating the public-health-insurance plan despite pressure from Republicans and some moderate Democrats to back away from the idea. Yet he is likely to leave the door open for a compromise on the issue." He'll also "emphasize what he says the health-care system would look like without change, depicting a scenario of rising costs, more uninsured Americans and more efforts by insurance companies to block those with pre-existing medical conditions from buying insurance."
**Health Care
*AP: "Time is running out for a two-party compromise on health care as a bipartisan group of six Finance Committee senators considers a new proposal that might be the last, best hope for an overhaul agreement."
*Bloomberg has details on the draft legislation Max Baucus released this weekend.
*Politico explains the roadmap for the White House: "Convince skeptical Americans that a new system would actually help them, not limit their choices and care. Strike a compromise between liberals who demand a public option and cost-conscious centrists who call it a deal-breaker. Win over Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.), an inscrutable moderate. And avoid Death Panels II, a rerun of the potent Republican attacks." But the problem is, "That's the same basic roadmap they started out with in February, and it failed to get Obama where he had hoped to be by Labor Day."
**President Obama
*Today, "President Obama will address students nationwide Tuesday about the importance of taking personal responsibility for one's education - an address made controversial by a since-abandoned follow-up assignment decried as political propaganda," the Washington Times notes.
*"In a 2,389-word speech to students to mark the opening of the new schoolyear, released Monday to quell a controversy, President Obama does not say one controversial thing," writes Politics Daily's Lynn Sweet. "Obama also goes on to urge students -- hold on to your seats here -- to do their homework, set goals, work hard, persevere and stand up for kids who are bullied. ... The critics are going to have to scrub this speech pretty hard to come up with some foam. It's just not there."
*Jim Greer, the Florida GOP chairman who became a leading voice opposing Obama's education speech, now says he'll send his kids to hear it. He told CNN yesterday: "After reading the text, seeing the Department of Education has told teachers they are not to lead students in the direction that they would have a week ago, my kids will be watching the president's speech as I hope all kids will. I don't advocate children not watching this president's speech with this text."
*A report from OpenTheGovernment.org, a group of 75 public interest group, is giving the White House generally good marks on transparency. AP: "The coalition says the new administration has made major strides toward more disclosure, including the recent release of Justice Department memos on Bush administration interrogation policies and Obama's embrace of greater openness under the Freedom of Information Act. The report noted, however, that the government has resisted release of photos from Army interrogation investigations; has not backed away from occasional use of the state secrets privilege; and has argued in court for secrecy regarding the role of former Vice President Dick Cheney in the Valerie Plame affair."
**Congress
*"The American people are no less divided on healthcare reform today than they were a month ago. A new Gallup Poll finds 39% of Americans saying they would direct their member of Congress to vote against a healthcare reform bill this fall while 37% want their member to vote in favor."
*Washington Post reporters give straightforward answers to eight questions on health care reform, including some ideas being considered in Congress.
*In his office's online briefing on the day's floor schedule, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer features this quote from White House adviser David Axelrod (from Sunday's "Meet the Press"): "The idea here is to keep the American people from going broke as a result of soaring healthcare costs that have doubled in the last 10 years, risen three times the rate of wages. We want to bring security to the people who have insurance so that they're not thrown off their insurance if they get sick, so that if they lose their job or change their job, they'll still have coverage, so that people with pre-existing conditions can get insurance. That's what the American people need to know."
*"Amid fresh signs that the White House is preparing to back a scaled-down health care overhaul that would only include a public insurance option as a fallback plan, several House liberals told Roll Call that they could support such a bill depending on how it was structured."
*Why reading a bill is unproductive: "Across the country, "Read the bill!" has become a rallying cry of the health care debate," Politico reports. "
*"President Barack Obama's relationship with Speaker Nancy Pelosi, strained by differences over healthcare, will be tested by their talks on Tuesday in advance of his Wednesday night speech to a joint session of Congress," The Hill reports.
*McClatchy: "With his first full fiscal year about to begin on October 1, the Democratic-controlled Congress has not passed a single major fiscal 2010 spending bill, and is virtually certain to begin funding the government next month with the same kind of stopgap steady-spending measure used during all eight years of the Bush administration."
**Campaign Stuff
*Banner headline in the Boston Globe: "Kennedy says no, and the race is on." Former Rep. Joe Kennedy II, son of RFK, announced yesterday he won't run for the U.S. Senate. According to those close to Kennedy, "the lure of a Senate seat and the prospect of extending his family's political legacy were not enough to draw Kennedy, who runs an energy firm, back into the spotlight and grueling pace of national politics."
*Former Lt. Gov. Kerry Healy (R) turned down the race. The GOP did get its first candidate yesterday, though -- Canton Selectman Bob Burr.
*Curt Schilling blogged what could be the makings of a campaign platform. But our take continues to be that he sounds like someone who should be running for state and not federal office. "Were I to even consider this it would be for 1 term and 1 term only, and then only to do everything in my power to rid this state of the tired an unethical people that have run it into the ground and help it begin the healing process, and once again become a thriving state to live and work in."
*Trouble in the desert? Las Vegas Sun reports, "According to sources close to Sen. Harry Reid's campaign, the gubernatorial ambitions of son Rory Reid, the Clark County Commission chairman, have emerged as a point of considerable hand wringing among advisers who view it as an obstacle to the U.S. Senate majority leader's reelection. ... The reasoning behind the concern: Voters don't like dynasties. Besides, advisers say, recent polling has Rory Reid trailing possible Democratic opponents in the race for governor by double digits."
*Washington Post looks at the Labor Day kickoff of the final stretch in Virginia. "Throughout the day, Republicans tied Deeds to a national Democratic Party that they are convinced is losing ground in Virginia, where last year voters backed a Democrat for president for the first time in more than four decades. They said Deeds would support soaring government spending, Democratic efforts to reform health care and federal cap-and-trade energy legislation."
Reacting, check out this quote from Creigh Deeds, on Pelosi and Reid: "I'm not sure I'd know either one of them if I saw them, except I've seen them on television. I'm sure they wouldn't know me."
*The Newark Star-Ledger profiles Chris Daggett, the independent candidate for New Jersey's governorship. "In the past, a vote for an independent was seen as a wasted vote. This year, some say it will send a message," the paper notes.
--Mike Memoli and Kyle Trygstad



